New private home sales dive 78.7% year on year in May amid market slump

Lack of new launches add to seasonal lull and sagging sales so far this year

Jun 18, 2024

NEW private home sales dwindled in May, falling to the lowest level seen for the month of May since record-keeping began in June 2007. They were also down nearly 80 per cent year on year.

No major projects were marketed last month, when the seasonal mid-year lull was compounded by sales sagging in recent months.

Data released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) on Tuesday (Jun 18) showed that developers sold 221 condo units in May, down 78.7 per cent year on year from the 1,039 units moved a year ago.

The latest May sales figure – which excludes executive condominiums (ECs) – is also 26.6 per cent less than the 301 units sold in April.

May sales were the lowest seen in the past three months, and the lowest recorded for the month of May since 2008, when 453 units were sold, said Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at OrangeTee Group.

Including ECs, 261 units were sold in May with 248 units launched, versus the 1,056 units sold and 1,595 units launched in the same month in 2023. In comparison, 352 units were sold and 278 units were launched in April 2024.

Tricia Song, CBRE research head for Singapore and South-east Asia, noted that the May sales figure in 2023 was boosted by two major launches – freehold The Continuum in District 15 with 816 units and 99-year leasehold The Reserve Residences in District 21 with 732 units. (*see amendment note)

But in May this year, there were no significant project launches in the suburbs and city fringe, which tend to be lower-priced and more accessible than homes in the prime segment, added Sun.

School holiday lull aside, primary market sales have slowed considerably, said Nicholas Mak, chief research officer at Mogul.sg.

In the past 10 years, developers have sold an average of 8,853 private housing units per year, working out to a monthly average of 738 units, he said. In the first five months of 2024, developers have only sold 1,697 units, “far below the sales volume required to reach the average annual sales of 8,853 units”.

The recent slump in sales has led several analysts to cut forecasts for the year. At the start of the year, Knight Frank projected primary sales volume would range between 7,000 and 9,000 units in 2024, an estimate it has now revised to under 7,000 units.

CBRE sliced its new home sales forecast to 5,500 to 6,500 units, from 7,000 to 8,000 units. “Correspondingly, private residential prices which are up 1.4 per cent quarter on quarter in Q1 could rise at a slower pace for the rest of the year,” noted Song.

Mak reckoned primary market sales could drop to the level seen during the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis, when only 6,096 new units were sold in the year.

Volume is likely to remain subdued until mortgage rates come down, or if the government eases some of the cooling measures, pointed out Knight Frank Singapore’s research head Leonard Tay.



Prices are still expected to grow 3 to 4 per cent in 2024, said CBRE’s Song, who does not expect a major correction with household balance sheets resilient and unsold inventory at low levels. But a recovery in developers’ sales is not expected until 2025.

In May, two small projects were marketed – the 999-year leasehold Jansen House in District 19 with 21 units, and freehold Straits At Joo Chiat in District 15 with 16 units. Jansen House moved three units at a median price of S$2,098 per square foot (psf), while Straits at Joo Chiat moved two units at a median price of S$2,091 psf.

One unit was sold at the 99-year leasehold Skywaters Residence last month, to a foreign buyer for S$47.3 million or S$6,100 psf. This means the buyer forked out S$28.4 million in Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty, noted ERA’s key executive officer Eugene Lim. The Shenton Way project has yet to be publicly launched and was marketed to selected clients.

Altogether, 248 units were launched for sale last month, just 15.5 per cent of the 1,595 units launched in May 2023. This is also slightly lower than the 278 units launched in April 2024.

Muted performance

URA data showed that among the three market segments, the suburban Outside Central Region (OCR) continued to lead in condo and private apartment sales, accounting for 63.8 per cent of sales in May.

This was followed by the Rest of Central Region (RCR) or city fringe, which accounted for around 30 per cent of primary sales, and the prime Core Central Region (CCR), which made up 12.2 per cent of new sales last month.



All the top 10 best performing projects in May came from existing projects located mainly in the OCR and RCR. “This is indicative that buyers have turned very price sensitive amid economic weakness and high mortgage rates,” said CBRE’s Song.

The best-selling project for the month was 99-year leasehold Lentor Hills Residence in District 26 with 25 units transactions at a median price of S$2,164 psf.

The Lentor area also saw the highest number of sales with 69 transactions last month, said Lee Sze Teck, Huttons Asia’s senior director of data analytics.

Analysts are looking at a slight pickup in the second half of the year, as more major projects come to market. This includes larger developments such as the 99-year leasehold Emerald of Katong in District 15 and 99-year leasehold The Chuan Park in District 19, both with over 800 to 900 units, noted Mohan Sandrasegeran, SRI head of research and data analytics.

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