Interest rates heading north; Singapore to feel full impact in 2023

Brokers say some banks have already raised 3-year fixed rates by 5-10 basis points in October, up from an all-time low in September

Nov 15, 2021

DOMESTIC borrowing rates will inevitably head north in 2022, with the US Federal Reserve inching closer to a rate hike as it starts tapering bond purchases.

The questions are when, and by how much, mortgage brokers and bank executives said, with most agreeing that the full impact of these global actions on Singapore will only be realised in 2023.

As it is, some banks here have already raised 3-year fixed rates by between 5 and 10 basis points in October, up from an all-time low in September, the brokers said.

Banks have cited a "tremendous increase in cost of funds", said Clive Chng, associate director of RedBrick Mortgage Advisory.

"I think the banks will definitely wait to observe the market, before they move rates again. But as of now, the cost of funds has increased a bit, so that has pushed the banks to move their fixed rates up already," Chng said.

Darren Goh, executive director at MortgageWise.sg, is of the view that the Fed will officially lift rates in the second half of 2022 and his company is looking at 2023 as a "cycle-turning year" where domestic rates are concerned. For now, floating rates will likely "remain relatively flat or subdued", Goh wrote in a blog update in October.

As part of its efforts to scale back on pandemic stimulus, the Fed announced last week that it would start reducing monthly bond purchases with the aim of reaching zero net additions to its bond portfolio by the middle of next year. This reduces the money supply.

As a result, lenders are likely to be more restrictive over who they will lend money to, leading to higher borrowing rates on mortgages, and other business and consumer loans.

Singapore's domestic interest rates are largely influenced by global market movements and especially by US rates, because the US is the world's largest economy. This means that once the Fed decisively turns hawkish, domestic rates are likely to follow.

In a closely-watched press conference on Nov 3, Fed chair Jerome Powell said the Fed's monetary policy stance remains "accommodative", and that it is still seeking to keep interest rates close to zero, for now.

Both Chng and Goh expect the first official rate hike to happen anytime between the middle and end of next year.

As of Nov 12, the 3-month compounded Singapore Overnight Rate Average, or SORA, as published by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), stood at 0.149 per cent.

The 3-month SIBOR, or Singapore Interbank Offered Rate, stood at 0.437 per cent. SIBOR is a popular benchmark for floating-rate home loans, but it will be phased out in three to four years and replaced by the SORA.

Goh expects SORA benchmark rates to go up to 0.3-0.5 per cent by end of next year, which means fixed rates will then be around the 1.5-1.8 per cent range.

Another benchmark rate, SOR (Singapore Dollar Swap Offer Rate), also had to be phased out because the US dollar LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate), which it relies on, will be discontinued at the end of this year.

UOB chief financial officer Lee Wai Fai expects the impact on Singapore's domestic rates will only fully pan out "sometime later": firstly, it will take about 4-5 months for the effect on Singdollars to be realised, and secondly, he does not foresee economies in the region raising benchmark rates just yet "because they do have other priorities".

"As a result, we don't see margins increasing significantly. So it will be a positive upwards for us. But I think the bigger impact should be in 2023," Lee said at his bank's quarterly results briefing on Nov 3.

DBS chief executive Piyush Gupta said at his bank's quarterly results briefing on Nov 5 that there might be fewer hikes than the market has been signalling.

"Based on what Powell is saying, you might not see two to three increases, you might see one to two rate increases though. And if that happens, some of it will filter through in Singapore and some economies might even front-run some of the increases."

Another uncertainty for domestic rates next year is the switch in benchmark rates from the SOR to SORA.

"In the past, Singapore SOR used to be entirely a function of the foreign exchange policy and the swap points between the US dollar and Singdollar. As more and more embrace of SORA is done, it will be less dependent on that and more driven by Singapore market liquidity conditions as well. But net net, I do expect to see a pick-up in rates," he said.

SORA, which is calculated based on historical transactions, tends to be more predictable and offers more transparency, whereas SIBOR, which reflects the interest rates that banks have decided to charge in the future, tend to be less predictable.

OCBC's chief economist Selena Ling said the pass-through from movements in global interest rates to short-term rates in Singapore may not be one-for-one.

"MAS manages the monetary policy settings through its trade-weighted exchange rate policy, and at the recent October review had slightly steepened the S$NEER slope to combat inflation. This may give some flexibility to local interest rates in the interim," she said.

The S$NEER slope refers to the slope of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate policy band.

Besides the interest rate trajectory, homeowners should also consider price affordability, debt servicing ability and the risk of macroprudential measures, Ling said.