Look beyond reported rates to get true picture of rental market for CBD offices

Nov 11, 2021

DEMAND trends for office property in the central business district (CBD) are shifting, with implications for property groups and real estate investment trusts (Reits) with high exposure to the Singapore office market. Investors should keep their eyes peeled for signs of just how sustainable CBD office rents are.

Keppel Reit, a proxy for the sector, last month said that its average signing rent for Singapore office leases concluded in the first nine months of 2021 was S$10.49 per square foot (psf) per month.

This was down 2.2 per cent from the S$10.73 psf per month for first-half 2021, "which implies to us Q3 FY21 average rent declined 4.6 per cent quarter on quarter (qoq) to S$10.31 psf, compared to spot rental increase of 1.4 per cent", said Citi analyst Brandon Lee in a report dated Oct 25.

At CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT), the occupancy rate of its Singapore office portfolio slipped to 91.7 per cent as at end-September 2021, from 92.4 per cent as at end-June 2021, due to CapitaGreen and Asia Square Tower 2. "Office reversions were broadly negative and resulted in average portfolio rent decline of 1.8 per cent qoq to S$10.07 psf per month," said Lee in a report on Oct 24.

The Urban Redevelopment Authority's (URA) office rental index for Singapore's central region posted a surprising 3.5 per cent qoq drop in the third quarter of 2021, after gaining 1.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2021.

Flight-to-quality

Property consultants swiftly attributed the decline to rental weakness at older, poorer-quality office buildings caused by some tenants downsizing or relocating to newer offices with superior specs in better locations.

The resulting two-tier office market is reflected in URA data showing that Category 1 office buildings - the better-quality properties in the city area - posted the second consecutive qoq increase in the psf monthly median rental, the consultants noted. On the other hand, the monthly median rental fell in Q3 for the remaining office space in Singapore - or Category 2.

But some industry insiders said that besides the flight-to-quality, there is another reason for the disparity.

Hidden story

Some of the Category 2 building owners lack financial power to pay for tenants' fit-out expenses or grant them extended rent-free periods. These landlords are more likely to agree to a lower rental rate to support occupancy rates in their properties.

On the other hand, the choice buildings in Category 1 are typically held by the more deep-pocketed landlords with the wherewithal to offer attractive inducements to tenants.

URA collects office rental data based on what is stated in rental contracts submitted to the Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore for stamp duty payment.

The taxman may not be agreeable to have some of these incentives excluded from the rentals stated in the contract.

"The rental figure that flows through to the URA index may be inflated in such cases. This also helps landlords to protect the high face rent figure in their buildings and gain the upper hand over tenants for future lease negotiations," said a source who acts for major office landlords.

Most property consultants are sanguine about rentals for the CBD Grade A office market, pointing to the short supply pipeline.

They acknowledge the uncertainty about the impact of a hybrid work model on demand for office space. This may result in some space being returned to the market, especially by consumer banks but also other occupiers.

That said, they point to Singapore's overall attraction as a business hub and see tech companies continuing to drive leasing activity.

An office leasing agent said: "Tech companies don't need to be profitable to be able to expand. For most tech companies, their main motivation is to capture market share; so they need more people. Collaboration is the backbone of tech companies, and for that they will want their people to be at the office. This is especially the case for Chinese tech firms."

Indeed, Savills Singapore executive director of research and consultancy Alan Cheong said the proposition for the CBD Grade A office market's recovery in 2022 has rested heavily on more Chinese tech companies expanding here.

Cheong is cautious about the dependence on such companies. "Following the series of wide-ranging crackdowns by the authorities in China, there will be a hiatus in Chinese tech companies' expansion plans here," he said.

He nevertheless believes this gap can be filled by Western tech companies - whether in the public or private equity markets - that are flush with capital and looking to expand.

Acid test

Wherever these tech companies hail from, the acid test will be whether they can generate enough replacement demand for CBD Grade A office space in Singapore - especially if occupiers in many other sectors start giving space up.

As Savills' Cheong put it: "Although tech companies are expanding aggressively here, that may not offset the right-sizing moves by many companies, leading to elevated vacancies in 2022."

Nevertheless, he argued that the "low interest rate environment and the string of leasing enquiries from tech companies will give landlords the confidence to push for higher rents".

Put simply, the inverse relation between vacancy and rental rate may break down. Savills is forecasting up to 2 per cent growth in 2022 for the average gross effective monthly rental value (after taking into account rent-free periods and other incentives) for its CBD Grade A office basket.

For full-year 2021, it is looking at a drop of up to 2 per cent.

JLL has upgraded its full-year 2021 rent growth forecast for its CBD Grade A office basket to 3-4 per cent from its earlier projection of a 2-3 per cent increase made in September. It predicts 25-30 per cent total increase for a 5-year period to end-2025.

If challenging business conditions persist and given widespread adoption of hybrid-work models, companies themselves may not yet be certain about their office space requirements.

Investors should exercise even more caution when evaluating the face value of rental data and projections.