After Asia-Pacific setback, French PM Macron eyes Africa's emerging markets

Oct 05, 2021

Andrew Hammond

SEPTEMBER saw a significant foreign policy setback in the Asia-Pacific for one of Europe's leading politicians, Emmanuel Macron, with the announcement of the UK-US-Australia security deal. However, he hopes to get back on the front foot this week in a different continent with his hosting of the first France-Africa summit of his presidency in the face of growing Chinese and US interest in the region too.

Africa has long been a foreign policy priority for Paris. For almost a century and a half, France maintained a substantial empire in the continent, stretching from the Maghreb through the Western and Central sub-Saharan regions. While direct rule ended in the early 1960s, French influence over its former colonies continued via political, security, economic and cultural connections in so-called Francophone Africa.

Today, it is estimated that the French language is spoken by more than 140 million people across more than 30 countries and territories. Africa is therefore the continent with the most French speakers in the world.

Building from this legacy, Macron has bold plans to renew the historical relationship in the face of significantly growing interest in the continent from other countries. This week's summit will therefore take stock of the progress on embedding French influence through Macron's main priorities of enhancing economic ties; improving the continent's physical security against terror groups; facilitating access to school and higher education; and enabling Africa's climate transition.

Yet, the French president is well aware that his goal of boosting his nation's influence across the continent is most unlikely given the competing attention paid by other nations to the continent based on its long-term growth potential, post-pandemic. This includes not only great powers like the United States and China, but also other states like India, Germany, Russia, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and some Gulf states which are also showering Africa with greater interest too, giving countries there more diplomatic options than just Beijing and Washington moving forward.

Take the example of the UK whose Prime Minister Boris Johnson hosted the UK-Africa Investment Summit last year, adding to his predecessor Theresa May's trip in 2018 when she went to three key Commonwealth countries: South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya (the first visit to that country by a UK prime minister since 1988).

NEW IMPORTANCE

For the UK, the continent has assumed new importance with Brexit as London seeks to consolidate ties with key non-EU nations following its departure from the Brussels-based club. Given the longstanding historical ties that Britain has especially with Commonwealth countries, Johnson and current UK ministers regularly cite that they want to marry the UK's heritage as a great global trading nation with a prosperous, growing Africa.

However, it is not solely through the lens of economics that London views the relationship with the continent. Instead, UK policymakers also highlight the need for greater African security ties with the West to tackle instability across the region. This includes the threat of Boko Haram, and al-Shabab militants which UK troops are playing a part in countering as part of an alliance of countries.

Russia, under President Vladimir Putin, is also keen to entrench its foothold in the continent with his nation's trade with Africa having risen from around US$5.7 billion in 2009 to US$17.4 billion in 2017. In 2019, Putin hosted the first Africa-Russia summit in Sochi; as Moscow seeks to expand its international influence, the continent is a key target for the Russian president, including for geopolitical, not just economic reasons.

Yet, it is the great powers that are having the most impact on the continent. Nascent superpower China is showing the greatest interest of all in Africa. The super priority that Beijing places on Africa is illustrated by the fact that its top leadership (the president, premier and foreign minister) have reportedly made a staggering total of around 80 visits to over 40 different countries there over the past decade alone.

China is aiming to better connect its Belt and Road initiative increasingly with the continent's development. Moreover, trade between the two powers has risen from US$765 million four decades ago to around US$170 billion today with around 40 African countries having signed onto Belt and Road with Beijing a frequent host of China-Africa Summits.

CATCH-UP

Under Joe Biden, the US is also stepping up its interest in the continent too, although the new administration in Washington knows it is playing a game of 'catch-up' with China. The Biden team is seeking to turbocharge US policy via the US 'Prosper Africa' initiative, which brings together 17 US government agencies to work on boosting trade and investment on the continent, first launched under Donald Trump but which got off to a very slow start.

The Biden team has requested an additional US$80 million to try to bolster the initiative, including to seek to substantially increase two-way trade and investment focused on sectors such as energy and climate, health, and digital technology. Washington will also work to bring in diaspora businesses and investors, focusing support on women, as well as on small and medium-sized enterprises.

The administration is framing the initiative as a way to promote shared US-Africa prosperity. Yet it is also designed, in part, to counter China in the region.

For much of the Trump years, US policy towards Africa lacked coherency, clarity, and urgency. And this despite key administration figures, including former national security adviser John Bolton, publicly acknowledging that China and Russia were "interfering with US military operations and posed a significant threat to US national security interests" in the continent.

Take the example of Kenya whose president was one of the few Africa leaders invited to the White House during Trump's presidency. It is a key US partner in the region amid insecurity and displacement in neighbouring countries including Somalia, Ethiopia and South Sudan. Yet, Kenya's external debt is largely (around 70 per cent) now owed to Beijing, and many large infrastructure projects are being built by Chinese firms.

This exemplifies that, while the upsurge of attention to Africa by Western powers and China partially reflects geopolitical considerations, broader economic calculations are also in play too.

From UK and French initiatives in the region to the great power game underway between the US and China, interest in the continent is only likely to grow into the 2020s, especially if its emerging markets come close to fulfilling their significant economic potential in the decade to come.

The writer is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics