Aukus pact to benefit Taiwan in US-China power struggle: Experts

The Taiwanese government has voiced cautious optimism about Aukus, the new security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States.

Katherine Wei
Taiwan Correspondent

Sep 30, 2021

TAIPEI - Taiwan could be a major beneficiary of the new security pact between Australia, the United States and Britain, experts say, as any conflict between the US and China over the island could now involve the two US allies.

The US military is no longer confident that it can, on its own, prevent China from invading Taiwan due to the country getting more powerful, said Dr Kharis Templeman, a research fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution.

He told The Straits Times that deterrence in the Taiwan Strait will "increasingly depend on the credible threat of horizontal escalation" - the possibility that China would also face war with the US as well as its allies and partners around the world should it start an invasion of Taiwan.

This makes it a priority for the US to strengthen its ties with countries that are able to lend "significant military and economic might to a potential fight over Taiwan".

"By enhancing military cooperation with the United States, Aukus would make UK and Australian involvement in a Taiwan scenario more credible, and therefore strengthen deterrence," said Dr Templeman.

He thinks the amount of concern over Taiwan's security that is behind the forming of the Aukus pact is "under-appreciated... at least on the United States side".

"Taiwan is still the only issue that could plausibly draw the United States into a hot conflict with China," he added.

Seen as a joint effort to counter China's growing assertiveness in the South China Sea and beyond, Australia, the United Kingdom and the US announced the Aukus alliance on Sept 15, much to China's chagrin.

Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Zhao Lijian called the pact "extremely irresponsible" and said it would "severely undermine regional peace and stability".

The Taiwanese government voiced cautious optimism about Aukus. Foreign Ministry spokesman Joanne Ou said that the island shares similar values with the three countries and everyone benefits when the Indo-Pacific region remains stable and peaceful.

"Taiwan will continue to deepen its partnership with the US... to upkeep international order that is rooted in rules," said Ms Ou.

Dr Chieh Chung, secretary-general at Taiwan's Association of Strategic Foresight, agrees with Dr Templeman that Aukus could be favourable for Taiwan, but says it will not be the only beneficiary.

The agreement would be a safety net if and when the US gets drawn into a military conflict with China.

"When the US redirects its troops in regions like the Mediterranean Sea and the Persian Gulf to handle conflict in Asia, it can expect the British to step in and keep these areas stable," said Dr Chieh.

Australia's role in the pact would potentially help the US in keeping China from entering the Philippine Sea and the West Pacific's deeper waters from the South China Sea.

"With Australia being responsible for safeguarding this area, the US military can keep its focus trained on North-east Asia and deter China from invading... not just Taiwan," said Dr Chieh. "This is likely to deter China from initiating military action to change the situations in places like the South China Sea and the Sino-Indian border."

While Taiwan banks heavily on US intervention in the event of a cross-strait invasion, the island has also been working on beefing up its own defences in recent years.

On top of a NT$471.7 billion (S$23 billion) military budget proposed for 2022, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defence put up an extra NT$240 billion budget that would cover military spending for the next five years, which includes investing in new missiles.

The ministry called the People's Liberation Army (PLA) a "severe" and "growing threat" in its annual legislature report on the Chinese military. In addition to being able to paralyse Taiwan's air and naval defences, the PLA's strengths in cyber warfare and communication jamming are a formidable threat to Taiwan, the report said.

The ministry also said on Monday (Sept 27) that it will resume assigning civilian servicemen to field units after their basic boot camp training. They will be sent to military bases in Taiwan and its outlying islands where they will familiarise themselves with combat operations.

Dr Chieh, however, believes the Taiwanese government should rethink its military spending so that the defence efforts will not taper out in the long run.

Under President Tsai Ing-wen's administration, arms purchases have been a priority, and Taiwan has also strove to develop and produce its own weapons.

"But Taiwan has gone into more debt for these investments, and will rack up more when these weapons need maintenance and repairs. It would be wiser and likely more cost-effective to purchase less and allocate the budget to keep the current fleets in good condition," said Dr Chieh.