China's private-sector crackdown is of concern for Singapore economy, analysts say

Sep 01, 2021

CHINA'S crackdown on private industry has emerged as a major concern for watchers of the Singapore economy, along with pessimism over an export slowdown and worsening fears about the Covid-19 pandemic.

This emerged from the latest quarterly survey of professional forecasters conducted by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), which was published on Wednesday.

"China's tech crackdown and push to reduce income inequality may weigh on investment and spending," said Lee Ju Ye, an economist at Maybank Kim Eng, who also flagged supply-chain risks from China's aggressive pursuit of a zero-Covid posture.

Some 30 per cent of respondents named a slowdown in China as a potential risk to the Singapore economy, up from none in June, while 25 per cent pegged regulatory tightening there as a risk to capital market conditions.

"Recent regulatory developments" could cause weaker-than-expected growth in China or negative spillover in regional markets, the report noted.

The MAS survey was sent out on Aug 11 in the wake of regulatory actions such as a ban on profits in parts of the private tuition industry and sanctions on ride-hailing giant Didi.

Since then, Chinese regulators have also directed their fire at online service algorithms, video games, private equity funds, and land and home prices, among others, amid national campaigns for an Internet clean-up and "common prosperity".

These actions sparked turmoil for counters from Web behemoths Tencent and Alibaba to food delivery firm Meituan and education technology company TAL Education Group.

While the resulting regional equity sell-off seems contained for now, "the risk for Singapore is if the recent moves cause a sharper slowdown in Chinese economic activity, which will affect regional growth and lead to reduced demand for Singapore's exports", ANZ Asia research head Khoon Goh said.

The spillover from any further sell-off in Chinese equity markets "could lead to a tightening in domestic financial conditions, which could lead to slower activity", he added.

Said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho: "Whereas a milder version of concerns regarding Chinese regulatory crackdown might instead result in limited impact or even misleading boost from substitution ... what this may conceal is a far more pernicious and destabilising sell-off in regional assets or financial markets."

The MAS poll also found rising gloom over Singapore's manufacturing and trade outlook, as the share of respondents hoping for economic upside from factory output growth fell to 40 per cent in September, down from 61.1 per cent in June.

Some 35 per cent of respondents also expressed concern about the economic risks from supply chain disruptions, up from 11.8 per cent in June.

Indeed, regional exports may have peaked, and slower growth in the months ahead "will also be felt by Singapore's exporters", said Mr Goh.

Besides the ebbing of a year-ago low base effect and a global semiconductor shortages, he named the pandemic-driven closure of key Chinese ports and stalled manufacturing activity in Vietnam and Malaysia as recent disruptors for regional trade.

But, despite the economic threat from a potential slowdown at a key trade partner like China, Moody's Analytics economist Denise Cheok noted that the United States may be "fast replacing China as the greatest near-term driver of growth for the region".

"Improving labour market conditions as well as continued fiscal spending in the US will support exports from Asian markets, including Singapore. This will help mitigate some of the slowdown induced by the Chinese economy," she said.

All the same, Covid-19 concerns looked to weigh more heavily on analysts than in the three months prior.

Granted, the hope of reopening borders to travel - which Ms Cheok dubbed a mainstay of the economy - was named a potential growth driver by 70 per cent of analysts in September, against 44.4 per cent in June.

But the MAS noted that a worsening Covid outbreak and "the associated re-tightening in public health measures" was unanimously identified by all respondents as a downside risk for the Singapore economy in September, compared with 82.4 per cent in June.

And the share of analysts anticipating a positive spillover from effective virus containment fell to 55 per cent in September, from 83.3 per cent.

This comes even though domestic handling of the Covid-19 pandemic lifted the mood on Singapore's labour market and economic situation in 2021.

Survey respondents kept their year-end unemployment rate forecast unchanged at 2.7 per cent, but removed a slower-than-expected labour market recovery - which could weigh on private consumption - from their top three economic risks.

"Easing of restrictions in Singapore has resulted in an improvement in domestic activity, which will lead to increased demand for labour - particularly in the services sector," said Mr Goh, who expects further improvement as Singapore reopens on the back of very high vaccination rates.

Pointing to potential hiring in the strong property market, Mr Varathan added that "strong demand in certain sectors and supply constraints explain an improvement in outlook", especially amid lingering constraints on access to foreign manpower.

The local economy is now tipped to expand by 6.6 per cent year on year in 2021 and 3.9 per cent in 2022.

The latest MAS survey of professional forecasters reflects the views of 24 analysts who closely monitor the Singapore economy, and not the central bank's own views or forecasts.