Singapore reopening: China can move the needle, but its zero-Covid stance is a hurdle

Aug 25, 2021


THE government's move to reopen borders with Germany and Brunei is commendable, but the news - greeted with great joy by those in Singapore and the two countries with family and social travel needs - was met with only muted enthusiasm by travel and tourism players.

The Vaccinated Travel Lane announced last week, which takes effect on Sept 8, is a measured and careful approach to reopening our borders. Importantly, it will also provide the experience for Singapore to learn and enhance its processes before widening the doors to more travellers.

Understandably, the reopening of our borders is a top priority for the government. The Covid-19 pandemic had slashed Changi Airport's bustling traffic to a disastrous 3 per cent of its pre-pandemic volume of over 60 million visitors a year. And the dismal situation continues more than a year since the pandemic broke.

Airlines, airports and hotels are not the only ones hit. Travel and tourism also support thousands of workers and other businesses in Singapore.

Therefore, when it was announced that the arrangement would waive stay-home periods on both ends for vaccinated visitors from Brunei and Germany, the response was generally favourable, even though the two were not Singapore's top in-bound tourist markets pre-pandemic.

Brunei and Germany ranked 27th and 15th respectively in arrivals by geography, with 72,600 and 380,760 tourist arrivals in 2019, Singapore Tourism Board (STB) statistics show.

In the same year, Hong Kong was the source of 488,540 visitor arrivals and contributed S$507 million in tourist receipts to Singapore, so it was no surprise that Hong Kong and Singapore earlier worked hard towards a bilateral travel bubble.

But each time a quarantine-free Air Travel Bubble was announced, it would be scuppered by Covid-related developments on either side. As it stands now, the two cities have abandoned efforts for an Air Travel Bubble.

Like Hong Kong - also an aviation hub and without a domestic market - Singapore knows full well that mainland China is the target that would make a real difference for the in-bound tourist market. With over a billion people living there, the populous country sent 3.63 million visitor arrivals Singapore's way pre-pandemic - outnumbering the combined 2.78 million arrivals from the US and Europe, or nearly 10 times that of Germany in 2019.

While here, the mainland Chinese splurged over S$4.1 billion - and that excluded spending on sightseeing, entertainment and gaming (figures not available due to commercial sensitivity) in that year. In contrast, German tourists spent S$317 million.

The real deal, therefore, is a mutual travel arrangement with mainland China. But the country for now is still pursuing a zero-Covid strategy, which runs counter to the endemic situation that Singapore is gearing up for. Some quarters are of the view that Singapore should return to a zero-Covid strategy, as there is more to gain in terms of the tourism potential from Hong Kong and mainland China.

But even if Singapore does that, there is no guarantee that Greater China would be ready to open up. For one, mainland China has a lower vaccination rate, which is a hurdle to allowing freer human flows. A single infection could quickly multiply and have more serious consequences for a community with less immunity than one that is approaching an 80 per cent vaccination rate.

Singapore can go on with reopening in a safe and calibrated manner. But the Covid-resilient strategy won't revive the aviation and related industries that employ nearly 200,000 workers - if our top source of in-bound tourists are not coming.