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Thread: Dakota Residences (D14, 99 year Leasehold, Ho Bee & NTUC Choice Homes)

  1. #211
    123 Guest

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    Sonia Kolesnikov-Jessop

    After two years of exuberance, activity in the private housing market in Singapore has slowed to a near standstill. The number of new property sales, measured on a monthly basis, contracted 64.9 percent in April, as buyers became more cautious and took a wait-and-see attitude. As a result, several well-publicized launches have been put on the backburner for an indefinite period and some developers have started to drop asking prices, for example at The Lakeshore in Jurong West and Blu Coral in Telok Kurau.

    An air of doom and gloom has settled over Singapore’s residential property market and vultures are circling, proclaiming the Singapore residential property market is about to collapse by 30-40 percent, but are they interpreting the facts correctly? Not all experts agree, with some calling the current market downturn more of a short-term blip rather than the beginning of a market collapse.

    “The slowing of the property market is a natural development after prices skyrocketed on the back of very strong demand,” says Sherman Chan, an economist at Moody’s Economy.com, “but a 30-40 percent collapse is highly unlikely. The construction sector is an important growth driver for Singapore and I don’t think the government would let it collapse as there would be wider ramifications. Let’s not forget that the government imposed some measures last year to cool down the market and these measures could very well be lifted if need be.”

    In recent weeks, several bearish reports have forecast a dramatic plunge in home values over the next two years. Barclays Capital believes private home prices could slide 28-30 percent by 2010, while Credit Suisse predicted a price decline of 30 percent in 2008-2009.

    The bears are pointing to several factors suggesting the writing is on the wall. The stock of unsold condominiums (as measured by projects that have been issued a sales license) rose to 10,861 units in the first quarter of this year, 34 percent higher than the quarterly average in 2007 and back up to levels not seen since June 2005. Net CPF withdrawals for private property have turned negative for the first time, reflecting the decline in transaction as well as profit taking by local buyers who own more than one property. “This has never happened before, not even during the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis,” notes Barclay Capital economist Waiho Leong. And vacancy rates in non-landed property developments have also risen in recent months toward 6.3 percent, compared with 5.6 percent in the last quarter of 2007. Credit Suisse, in its recent report, argues that this will rise further to 9.8-19 percent, on a base and worst case scenario. This could in turn trigger a sharp fall in rentals further weakening the market. “The last time vacancies shot up from 5.8 percent to 9.7 percent, rentals fell by 41percent,” Credit Suisse Tricia Song wrote referring to the year 1996.

    Casting long shadows on the markets are the estimated 66,000 home units expected to be completed between 2009-2012, as well as the possible unwinding of speculative purchases. Unless many of the developments that are currently in the pipeline are postponed, a cumulative surplus could provide a glut that will be felt most acutely in 2010, Leong warned.

    The bears also argue that given the current thin sales environment, the small price growth recorded by the URA indices do not reflect sentiment and can easily be biased by a few high-end sales. A better gauge of sentiment is land prices and developers’ waning appetite for recent URA auctions, they say. In May, a 99-year residential leasehold site in Choa Chu Kang Drive attracted a top bid of only $203 per square foot per plot ratio, well below the $230-$270 psf ppr range the market had expected.

    But not everybody agrees. “I think bad interpretation of data is causing the string of bad news,” says Ku Swee Yong, Director, Savills Residential Private Limited.

    Ku points out that the supply figures touted by some analysts bundle together planned, under construction and complete unit numbers. “The reality is that any apartments expected to complete in 2010 but still not under construction today, is unlikely to be completed on time given that the average construction period for a 20 storey apartment block takes 24 months from foundation works till handover” Ku remarks.

    “The construction sector is tight on resources today and unless there are policy changes given to encourage faster pace of construction, the ‘oversupply scenario’ is not a realistic one,” he adds.

    Tay Huey Ying, Director for Research and Consultancy at Colliers, agrees, pointing out that although the supply pipeline appears a “bit on the high side,” once delays and abandonment of project developments are taken into account, “the new supply will be much lower than expected.”

    Leonard Tay, director, CBRE Research also points out that many of the units will be taken out by either en-bloc sellers who need to relocate, or new expatriates moving here. “There is a lack of activity in the market, but property prices have been holding. I believe there are still a lot of buyers in the market with ready cash; they’re just waiting for what’s next,” Tay says, forecasting that the luxury end of the market may “dip just a bit” this year, but prices should hold for now.

    As for the units bought under the deferred payment scheme that some say will be “dumped” in the market as the construction is completed, Ku says their number is probably limited to around 2,900, 10 percent of the 29,000 units that URA has given approval for sale under Deferment Payment Scheme. “Not that much to worry about,” he says.

    Many property consultants are pointing to the long-term prospects for the Singapore property market supported by the positive vibe stemming from the Integrated Resorts and events such as the F1 race and the 2010 Youth Olympics.

    “I think the Singapore property market is still pretty strong. We could see a mild correction, but I don’t see that as a concern because the government is still trying to attract expatriates to work here and they will contribute to demand for properties,” Chan says.

    Tay also points out that given the anticipated continuing influx of foreigners, the 15-year historical average number of 7,000 new units needed a year is likely to increase to 8,000 to even 10,000 units.

    “So I don’t foresee an oversupply situation as yet. I don’t think the sky is about to fall in,” she says.

  2. #212
    Unregistered999 Guest

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    Quote Originally Posted by Peak
    Today's ST Money page, property prices peaked.
    don't take news reports as gospel.

  3. #213
    Property Supporter Guest

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    Quote Originally Posted by toaler
    hmm seriously this condo would be worth only $600psf less than 2 years ago.. cant imagine why everyone is rushing is jump onto the bandwagon that is obviously going down the slope in the next couple of years

    1st quarter rise was 3+% and 2nd was 0.4%.. it's a well known fact that a decline is usually preceded by ZERO growth. the factors causing this plateau will soon force the market into a minor correction. i am quite surprised at this drastic halt to the bullish property market but as consumers, we should be pushing hard for this correction and not fuel this nonsensical peak in property prices by gobbling up whatever the developer throws at us..

    i am not talking about a big major correction back to the doldrums of 2004 but at least prices should match that of the population's financial abilities to pay for private residences..

    $950-1000psf for a 99 year condo is a bit too high for my liking..
    It goes to show hearsay about prices going down is absolutely Rubbish!!! Whether you like it or not, you will probably feel frustrated and disappointed for each condo hunting as newly launch prices will not go down to 500psf or even 600psf for reasonably good location for both mid tier/mass market.

  4. #214
    Property Guest

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    Quote Originally Posted by Property Supporter
    It goes to show hearsay about prices going down is absolutely Rubbish!!! Whether you like it or not, you will probably feel frustrated and disappointed for each condo hunting as newly launch prices will not go down to 500psf or even 600psf for reasonably good location for both mid tier/mass market.
    Dream on if anyone still thinks we can go back to $500 or $600 psf. We complaint today the prices are high but wait for another 3 years and we may well complaint that the prices then at $1,300 is high when 3 years ago (that is now), it was only $900 to $1000.

  5. #215
    CarrieUnderwood Guest

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    Quote Originally Posted by Property
    Dream on if anyone still thinks we can go back to $500 or $600 psf. We complaint today the prices are high but wait for another 3 years and we may well complaint that the prices then at $1,300 is high when 3 years ago (that is now), it was only $900 to $1000.
    I hope you are right. Committed to a unit at Dakota Residences.

  6. #216
    Go prime Guest

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    Why did you buy now? This thing TOP in 2012? It will take like 5 years before you can move in. Since you're in no hurry to move in and there is no indication at all that property will move up in a BIG way, and so many new launches, you will be spoilt for choice! I can understand if people need a place desperately and need to buy a completed unit, but to rush in for a new launch today which is only ready 5 yrs later is just not wise. U don't even get rental yield to shield any possible downside movement. If u desperately need a place, just buy a new launch. BTW, go read the DTZ report. The median price of 99LH in prime D9,10,11 is only $900+psf while FH is $1400psf. So at $1000psf for dakota and 99 yrs, why not go to the prime districts? The FH is prime districts are quite out of reach but FH always fetch a premium.

    Quote Originally Posted by CarrieUnderwood
    I hope you are right. Committed to a unit at Dakota Residences.

  7. #217
    CarrieUnderwood Guest

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Go prime
    Why did you buy now? This thing TOP in 2012? It will take like 5 years before you can move in. Since you're in no hurry to move in and there is no indication at all that property will move up in a BIG way, and so many new launches, you will be spoilt for choice! I can understand if people need a place desperately and need to buy a completed unit, but to rush in for a new launch today which is only ready 5 yrs later is just not wise. U don't even get rental yield to shield any possible downside movement. If u desperately need a place, just buy a new launch. BTW, go read the DTZ report. The median price of 99LH in prime D9,10,11 is only $900+psf while FH is $1400psf. So at $1000psf for dakota and 99 yrs, why not go to the prime districts? The FH is prime districts are quite out of reach but FH always fetch a premium.
    Simply because I like the project

    TOP is 2010, 2012 is the legal TOP date, construction in Singapore seldom drags for 5 years.

  8. #218
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Posts
    97

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    Quote Originally Posted by Property Supporter
    It goes to show hearsay about prices going down is absolutely Rubbish!!! Whether you like it or not, you will probably feel frustrated and disappointed for each condo hunting as newly launch prices will not go down to 500psf or even 600psf for reasonably good location for both mid tier/mass market.
    everyone was saying this too when the prices last peak in 1996 .. but prices still tumbled..

    it takes a genius to tell whether history will repeat itself for this peak or should we hang on to the belief that singapore is undergoing this change into an upmarket property haven? this belief was the driving force behind the queues outside the Sail when it was launched at 1k psf, the enbloc frenzy in 2007 with developers snapping up lands at whatever ridiculous prices the owners set. but somehow i feel that the recent halt to this frenzy and the desperate leasing back of the enbloc estates back to the owners both point to a fundamental flaw in this belief: there just isn't enough equity to prop up the prices at this current level. even the oil rich Kuawaitis who are reaping in the billions from the sky high oil prices are having second thoughts about putting their surplus money into our property market (ie. the Goodwood residences issue).

  9. #219
    Congrats! Guest

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    You like the showflat. You haven't seen the real thing

    Anyway, happy can already. Buy already anyway. Congrats!

    For those who haven't committed, good to look around more. The prime areas might be more worthwhile. I think many Singaporeans don't even bother to look at resale and just chiong the showflat. At this price and a 99LH poor cousin, you might want to consider the prime 99LH prime condos @910psf. See http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=3200 . It's interesting that the FH condos capital values are appreciating much faster than the LH, esp in prime districts. I guess it's because the rich are more into wealth preservation for future generations and prestige of FH. The spread between FH condo and LH condo in prime district is >40%! I think this trend will flow to suburbs as well as people accumulates wealth and start to seriously consider estate planning and FH becomes really really rare.

    Quote Originally Posted by CarrieUnderwood
    Simply because I like the project

    TOP is 2010, 2012 is the legal TOP date, construction in Singapore seldom drags for 5 years.

  10. #220
    Unreg¡stered Guest

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by 123
    Sonia Kolesnikov-Jessop

    .............

    “I think bad interpretation of data is causing the string of bad news,” says Ku Swee Yong, Director, Savills Residential Private Limited.

    Ku points out that the supply figures touted by some analysts bundle together planned, under construction and complete unit numbers. “The reality is that any apartments expected to complete in 2010 but still not under construction today, is unlikely to be completed on time given that the average construction period for a 20 storey apartment block takes 24 months from foundation works till handover” Ku remarks.

    “The construction sector is tight on resources today and unless there are policy changes given to encourage faster pace of construction, the ‘oversupply scenario’ is not a realistic one,” he adds.

    Tay Huey Ying, Director for Research and Consultancy at Colliers, agrees, pointing out that although the supply pipeline appears a “bit on the high side,” once delays and abandonment of project developments are taken into account, “the new supply will be much lower than expected.”

    Leonard Tay, director, CBRE Research also points out that many of the units will be taken out by either en-bloc sellers who need to relocate, or new expatriates moving here. “There is a lack of activity in the market, but property prices have been holding. I believe there are still a lot of buyers in the market with ready cash; they’re just waiting for what’s next,” Tay says, forecasting that the luxury end of the market may “dip just a bit” this year, but prices should hold for now.

    As for the units bought under the deferred payment scheme that some say will be “dumped” in the market as the construction is completed, Ku says their number is probably limited to around 2,900, 10% of the 29,000 units that URA has given approval for sale under Deferment Payment Scheme. “Not that much to worry about,” he says.

    Many property consultants are pointing to the long-term prospects for the Singapore property market supported by the positive vibe stemming from the Integrated Resorts and events such as the F1 race and the 2010 Youth Olympics.

    “I think the Singapore property market is still pretty strong. We could see a mild correction, but I don’t see that as a concern because the government is still trying to attract expatriates to work here and they will contribute to demand for properties,” Chan says.

    Tay also points out that given the anticipated continuing influx of foreigners, the 15-year historical average number of 7,000 new units needed a year is likely to increase to 8,000 to even 10,000 units.

    So I don’t foresee an oversupply situation as yet. I don’t think the sky is about to fall in,” she says.
    Is there a need to post this piece of news everywhere?

  11. #221
    you are a fool Guest

    Talking

    Quote Originally Posted by CarrieUnderwood
    I hope you are right. Committed to a unit at Dakota Residences.
    Hahaha, you will lose your 1%, guarenteed. If not, you will lose 30-50% in 2 years time.

  12. #222
    geylang Guest

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    As a horny caucasion, i would love to live in a 2 bedroom unit in dakoda. Have great proximity to the greatest entertainment spot in singapore!
    Always close but never closed.

  13. #223
    RJ Guest

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    Quote Originally Posted by CarrieUnderwood
    Simply because I like the project

    TOP is 2010, 2012 is the legal TOP date, construction in Singapore seldom drags for 5 years.
    Buying a property is an emotional thing, if you like it good. Judging from what you ay, guess you are a long=term roperty holder, if fall, it will come back up again. Only paper loss and gain, so does not matter. Enjoy your new property (though a few more years to go)

  14. #224
    RJ Guest

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by toaler
    everyone was saying this too when the prices last peak in 1996 .. but prices still tumbled..

    it takes a genius to tell whether history will repeat itself for this peak or should we hang on to the belief that singapore is undergoing this change into an upmarket property haven? this belief was the driving force behind the queues outside the Sail when it was launched at 1k psf, the enbloc frenzy in 2007 with developers snapping up lands at whatever ridiculous prices the owners set. but somehow i feel that the recent halt to this frenzy and the desperate leasing back of the enbloc estates back to the owners both point to a fundamental flaw in this belief: there just isn't enough equity to prop up the prices at this current level. even the oil rich Kuawaitis who are reaping in the billions from the sky high oil prices are having second thoughts about putting their surplus money into our property market (ie. the Goodwood residences issue).
    The prices have been driven up by the luxury and super luxury segment? This project is not that category........

  15. #225
    One Guest

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by RJ
    The prices have been driven up by the luxury and super luxury segment? This project is not that category........
    Any price consolidation will come from the main benefactor of the run up last year and the mass or city fringe, whilst did go up, not as much, will be more resilient. This project is less than $1000 for most units and so should be resilient.... and as the benefit of being new.

  16. #226
    Property Supporter Guest

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by toaler
    everyone was saying this too when the prices last peak in 1996 .. but prices still tumbled..

    it takes a genius to tell whether history will repeat itself for this peak or should we hang on to the belief that singapore is undergoing this change into an upmarket property haven? this belief was the driving force behind the queues outside the Sail when it was launched at 1k psf, the enbloc frenzy in 2007 with developers snapping up lands at whatever ridiculous prices the owners set. but somehow i feel that the recent halt to this frenzy and the desperate leasing back of the enbloc estates back to the owners both point to a fundamental flaw in this belief: there just isn't enough equity to prop up the prices at this current level. even the oil rich Kuawaitis who are reaping in the billions from the sky high oil prices are having second thoughts about putting their surplus money into our property market (ie. the Goodwood residences issue).
    Yes, I agree with you but it will probably take a terrible recession to tumble our property prices to historic low (I mean 500 to 600psf) which most govt will try to avoid, particularly Singapore. And it will be very unfortunate for S'pore if this happen so soon when we have put in place couple of growth initiatives a few years back and waiting to reap the fruits starting Sept 08.

    I am still of the opinion that the current slowdown will probably be temporary as we need to remember the fundamentals, ie S'pore is a very very small country with limited land space and we must accept the fact that properties are not going to be cheap and will continue to go up and up bearing any unforseen circumstances.

  17. #227
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Posts
    51

    Default

    It will either take a SARS or 911 to have a huge impact on us, not just us but the whole world economy will be drastically be affected.

  18. #228
    ggd Guest

    Default

    Is prices from Nationproperty.sg real ???
    Seems to quote a very low price all the time. eg Newton Suites at ~850psf ????? When I get agent to check on the project, they come back to me at best bargain ~1500psf !!! I really wonder if this site data are trustworthy ?

  19. #229
    RJ Guest

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by ggd
    Is prices from Nationproperty.sg real ???
    Seems to quote a very low price all the time. eg Newton Suites at ~850psf ????? When I get agent to check on the project, they come back to me at best bargain ~1500psf !!! I really wonder if this site data are trustworthy ?
    Exactly. Typical - advertise low, show interest, high. Anyway, what is the latest sale status of this projecr?

  20. #230
    Buyer88 Guest

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by RJ
    Exactly. Typical - advertise low, show interest, high. Anyway, what is the latest sale status of this projecr?
    Believe they have sold off 100% of Phase 1

  21. #231
    For real Guest

    Default

    Barring human typo error, should be for real. But for just TOP projects, sometimes it reflects initial price instead of subsale price. Nationproperty is usually faster in updating the transactions and usually the same transaction will appear in URA 2-3 weeks later.

    Quote Originally Posted by ggd
    Is prices from Nationproperty.sg real ???
    Seems to quote a very low price all the time. eg Newton Suites at ~850psf ????? When I get agent to check on the project, they come back to me at best bargain ~1500psf !!! I really wonder if this site data are trustworthy ?

  22. #232
    XYZ Guest

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    Quote Originally Posted by Buyer88
    Believe they have sold off 100% of Phase 1
    That is very strong sales!

  23. #233
    Unregistered10 Guest

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by XYZ
    That is very strong sales!

    WOW!!! solid!!!!

  24. #234
    St michael Guest

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    hahaha, new launch at St michael Rd from 600psf, 999yr leasehold. Dakoda buyers are fxxking screwed now!!!!!!!!!!!

  25. #235
    Kovan Guest

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    Quote Originally Posted by St michael
    hahaha, new launch at St michael Rd from 600psf, 999yr leasehold. Dakoda buyers are fxxking screwed now!!!!!!!!!!!
    Haha.... look at the other thread, new launch at Kovan this weekend, 500+ units, 99-year, minimum $900psf, makes Dakota Residences a steal!

  26. #236
    ggd Guest

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by For real
    Barring human typo error, should be for real. But for just TOP projects, sometimes it reflects initial price instead of subsale price. Nationproperty is usually faster in updating the transactions and usually the same transaction will appear in URA 2-3 weeks later.

    Don't think it is typo .... so many units???
    Attached Images Attached Images

  27. #237
    Passerby Guest

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Buyer88
    Believe they have sold off 100% of Phase 1
    CDL opens Livia condo at Pasir Ris for preview
    Initial units are priced at $650 psf on average; Kovan Residences launched

    By KALPANA RASHIWALA

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    CITY Developments Ltd (CDL) has begun to preview its much-awaited Livia condo at Pasir Ris at an average price of about $650 psf for the initial batch of units, BT understands.

    And next to Kovan MRT Station, the 512-unit Kovan Residences is being soft launched today and the average price is said to be $870 psf. Both projects are 99-year leasehold.

    Market watchers reckon that the $650 psf average pricing for the initial phase of Livia's marketing effort is about 10 per cent lower than what the developer could have fetched 12 months ago. 'It might have been priced at $730-750 psf last year,' an industry observer suggested. The 724-unit condo is being developed at Pasir Ris Drive 1 on a plot that is part of the group's historical Pasir Ris landbank acquired decades ago.

    CDL is developing Livia jointly with Hong Leong Holdings and Hong Realty. All three companies are part of Singapore's Hong Leong Group. Livia will have a total of 10 blocks, either 15 or 16 storeys high with units ranging from two-bedroom apartments to four bedders. There are also 12 penthouses.






    Next to Kovan MRT Station, Centurion Kovan, controlled by UOB-Kay Hian stockbroker pair Han Seng Juan and David Loh Kim Kang, has been testing the waters for its 512-unit Kovan Residences. The average price is believed to be around $870 psf and industry talk is that some 20 cheques were offered to the developer after a well-attended dinner preview for Messrs Han's and Loh's stockbroking community contacts last Saturday. It is not known if options have been issued.

    'Perhaps some of the potential buyers may have found the developer's proposed price a little challenging and made their counter offers with cheques,' a market watcher suggested.

    Kovan Residences' soft launch begins today, BT understands. Officials from Centurion Kovan, part of the Duchess Development group, have not been returning BT's calls over the past few days.

    Meanwhile, the project that started the current home buying wave, Ho Bee's 99-year leasehold Dakota Residences, is said to have sold 150 units since sales began a fortnight ago.

  28. #238
    vino Guest

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Property Supporter
    Yes, I agree with you but it will probably take a terrible recession to tumble our property prices to historic low (I mean 500 to 600psf) which most govt will try to avoid, particularly Singapore. And it will be very unfortunate for S'pore if this happen so soon when we have put in place couple of growth initiatives a few years back and waiting to reap the fruits starting Sept 08.

    I am still of the opinion that the current slowdown will probably be temporary as we need to remember the fundamentals, ie S'pore is a very very small country with limited land space and we must accept the fact that properties are not going to be cheap and will continue to go up and up bearing any unforseen circumstances.
    You do have a valid point but on the flip side, Singapore being an open economy will expose itself to the global market sentiment easily. If the global scene is ugly now, which I believed not many would disagree, then how can local property market price continue to rally up liked many bulls would want it to be?

  29. #239
    haha Guest

    Default

    hahaha, new launch at St michael Rd from 600psf, 999yr leasehold. Dakoda buyers are fxxking screwed now!!!!!!!!!!!

  30. #240
    Jessie Guest

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    Quote Originally Posted by vino
    You do have a valid point but on the flip side, Singapore being an open economy will expose itself to the global market sentiment easily. If the global scene is ugly now, which I believed not many would disagree, then how can local property market price continue to rally up liked many bulls would want it to be?
    Depending on whether you are a speculator or a investor, whether own stay or investment. Over a longer term, properties in Singapore will be OK, there may be short term correction (even 1-2 years) but in the long run, properties always come back stronger than before.

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