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Thread: 3 lessons I learned from National Day Rally 2017

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    Default 3 lessons I learned from National Day Rally 2017


    3 lessons I learned from National Day Rally 2017


    August 25, 2017



    Did you watch the 2017 National Day Rally last Sunday evening?

    No, our Prime Minister didnít mention the master plan or the property market. Nor did he cover any schedule to relax the cooling measures. As expected, thereís no mention of MRT either.

    He only talked about e-payments, diabetes and pre-school education.

    Tay Kah Poh, Executive Director & Head of Residential Services at Knight Frank, told me this recently:

    ďIn Singapore, there are only 3 things that people really care: education, wealth and health. And we talk about them all the time.Ē

    I couldnít agree with him more.

    Education, wealth and health are all that matters Ė nearby schools, PSLE, overseas education, stocks, properties, CPF, retirement, diseases, diet, etc.

    When we are below 20, we talk about our grades in schools.

    When we are in our 20s, we talk about our salaries at work.

    When we are in our 30s, we talk about our homes and cars.

    When we are in our 40s, we talk about our childrenís grades, our homes and cars.

    When we are in our 50s, we talk about our savings and retirement plan.

    When we are in our 60s, we talk about how many pills we take every day.

    When we are over 70, we talk about how many grandchildren we have and which schools they go.

    You see, our whole life revolves around education, wealth and health.

    Thatís why our PM talked about pre-school education, e-payments and diabetes.

    And donít be disappointed that he didnít mention properties in his speech. This is a property blog. I can always relate anything to our favorite topic.

    Below are 3 very important lessons I picked up from our PMís speech.


    1. It is precisely because you are not worried, that I am worried.

    The average life expectancy of Singaporeans is 82, but we have an average of 8 years of ill health in our final years. Above all, 3 in 10 Singaporeans over the age of 60 have diabetes.

    Despite this, we continue to top up our meals with sugary drinks whenever we eat outside Ö until one day we become diabetes or pre-diabetes.

    The problem is: Most Singaporeans are not worried about diabetes. This is exactly what the government is worried. Last year, the Ministry of Health (MOH) said it has declared war on diabetes Ė one of the biggest drains on Singaporeís healthcare system.

    Isnít the government doing the same for properties?

    From 2009, buyers and investors continued to snap up properties despite spiraling prices. Despite repeated warnings from the government to buy or invest prudently, property-obsessed Singaporeans still rushed to upgrade their homes or buy their second property.

    According to the Ascendant Assetsí Property Investor Profile Survey, a typical Singapore property investor is 46 years old, married and have an average of $100,000 to $400,000 spare cash.

    Can the familyís breadwinner with school-going kids continue to service his mortgage if he loses his job? Does he have enough spare cash to top up the difference if the value of his property drops below his outstanding loan?

    It is precisely because the buyers are not worried, that the government is worried.

    To ensure that the property market is sustainable, the government introduced eight rounds of cooling measures from 2009 to 2013 in order to slowdown an overheated market.


    2. Itís not what you know. Itís what you donít know that costs you the most.

    The PM suggested that the solution for high diabetes rate is to make it mandatory for soft drink manufacturers to reduce the sugar level in all their drinks selling in Singapore.

    But from a young age, we have been brainwashed by all the advertisements marketing different types of sugary drinks. The celebrities all look cool and healthy in the ads.

    Similarly, the newspaper and TV ads of new launch are all projecting a middle-class lifestyle with loving couples and blissful families. They are selling us the Singapore dream. Who will think of toiling for a 30-year mortgage when we submit the cheque?

    The project brochure shows Ďartistís impressionsí of infinite blue sky, lush greenery, beautiful beach or breathtaking seaview. The showflat displays modern renovation and designer fittings. Who will think of, after collecting the key to your new home, the flyover is right outside your bare unit which has countless developer defects waiting the longest time to be fixed?

    American writer Josh Billings said it best:

    ďIt ainít so much the thing we donít know that get us into trouble. Itís the things we know that just ainít so.Ē


    3. Those who care the least are the ones who need help the most.

    From next month onwards, for those above the age of 40, MOH will offer them S$100 health check-ups at S$5 only.

    Unless the government makes it compulsory, even if it is free of charge, how many will go?

    People go for health check-ups for three reasons: 1) they are very health conscious; 2) they are required to do so for employment; or 3) they are asked by their doctors to do so to confirm the bad news.

    Many years ago, NKF came to our office to do free health check-ups. Those who signed up were all young and healthy ones. The ďoverweight never exerciseĒ colleagues put up all sorts of excuses not to go.

    What for? To confirm that they have high cholesterol or pre-diabetes?

    Do you notice most joggers passing by you look really fit? Most people in the gym donít look like they need to work so hard?

    That reminds me of the National Steps Challenge organized by Health Promotion Board. After the campaign ends, many are still using the pedometer to ensure that they walk 10,000 steps a day, even if they are no longer rewarded with shopping vouchers.

    Are they health conscious and physically active people in the first place?

    I am running a full day workshop on Home Defects Inspection tomorrow. I can imagine people who signed up are serious people who will learn everything they care about.

    Those who drop me email Ė saying they have made regrettable mistakes and wish they could have read my book earlier or attended my workshops before Ė are most likely not members of Property Club Singapore and have never joined our events.

    And please donít ask me what you should do now with your regretted purchase or wrong property.

    Sorry, I am not a doctor. I can only play my part on the prevention, not the cure.

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    Government already switched gear loh...

    http://www.straitstimes.com

    Don't continue to be blindfolded. Refinancing ahead at 1.2 or 1.3% tied to FD. What is the highest FD can go, given huge sums of sinking funds and town council funds stuck there?

    Pay lower interests than HDB.

    But the bears will still choose hibernation to burn all fats and sugars right? Ok let the oil go to others then.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    The key question I want to ask is: why is she so worried for the rest of us who are investing/invested in properties?

    From what I gather, isn't she no longer vested.? Or should I say , she is vested in HOPING FOR A CRASH, am I right?

    So she is selling something, isn't it?

    Who is more tedious? An agent who keeps saying buy buy buy, or a blogger (bear) who keeps saying don't buy, don't buy , don't buy?

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    If Bank can loan me money I will Buy Buy Buy.

    How Many 10 years does one have.

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    From 2009, buyers and investors continued to snap up properties despite spiraling prices. Despite repeated warnings from the government to buy or invest prudently, property-obsessed Singaporeans still rushed to upgrade their homes or buy their second property.

    According to the Ascendant Assets’ Property Investor Profile Survey, a typical Singapore property investor is 46 years old, married and have an average of $100,000 to $400,000 spare cash.

    Can the family’s breadwinner with school-going kids continue to service his mortgage if he loses his job? Does he have enough spare cash to top up the difference if the value of his property drops below his outstanding loan?

    A buyer of a property can be a investor or a consumer.

    A Investor is one who buy to preserve his money against inflation.

    A Consumer is one who buy to consumer his money.

    Your Home is not your asset until you sell at a price higher than you buy.

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    So this is the song you are singing. Now I know.

    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    If Bank can loan me money I will Buy Buy Buy.

    How Many 10 years does one have.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tonymontana View Post
    The key question I want to ask is: why is she so worried for the rest of us who are investing/invested in properties?

    From what I gather, isn't she no longer vested.? Or should I say , she is vested in HOPING FOR A CRASH, am I right?

    So she is selling something, isn't it?

    Who is more tedious? An agent who keeps saying buy buy buy, or a blogger (bear) who keeps saying don't buy, don't buy , don't buy?
    I suspect the following:
    1. Already offload most if not all residential properties with exception of own stay and commercial
    2. Wielding her influence to subtly depress prices while preserving cash war chest
    3. Hoping for a BIG CRASH before entering to buy again

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    Quote Originally Posted by frumnat View Post
    I suspect the following:
    1. Already offload most if not all residential properties with exception of own stay and commercial
    2. Wielding her influence to subtly depress prices while preserving cash war chest
    3. Hoping for a BIG CRASH before entering to buy again
    No one can Talk up or Talk down the market.

    She is just doing her job call BEAR.

    There will always be people sitting by the side watching the Boat sail pass call MTB, there will be people on the Boat sailing though all type of water and there will be people who create wave and try to slow down the Boat.

    The BIG CRASH will come but nobody know when, the one on the Boat will manage after years of sailing, the one sitting by the side watching will wonder what will happen next and the one who try to slow down the Boat will take a rest.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DayDreamer View Post
    So this is the song you are singing. Now I know.
    Nope.

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    I have mentioned before, She is just talking down the market on the pretense of saving people. Sometime I wish the market crashed too and sometime I wish the market cheong, but dont have to be pretend like a saviour.

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    Quote Originally Posted by stl67 View Post
    I have mentioned before, She is just talking down the market on the pretense of saving people. Sometime I wish the market crashed too and sometime I wish the market cheong, but dont have to be pretend like a saviour.
    How does talking down the market help with her book sale, club membership and paid workshop? And how does this even make her look credible?

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    Quote Originally Posted by frumnat View Post
    How does talking down the market help with her book sale, club membership and paid workshop? And how does this even make her look credible?
    Basically she advocated from 2011 that market had peaked and it was time to take profits. She led the way by selling most of her properties. Market only turned in 2013 and she continued to write about how to make shrewd investments by withholding investing in property. But all the way till 2017, the market had at best dropped to 2011 levels and doesn't look to be moving down any more. With the additional taxes, it doesn't make sense for her to enter again.

    She probably can't reverse at this juncture and must continue to bet on a lower market in everything she writes. If market turns soon, she loses all credibility. If market stays flat or dips further, she can sing the same tune as long as she likes. There is only 1 way to go for her.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    Basically she advocated from 2011 that market had peaked and it was time to take profits. She led the way by selling most of her properties. Market only turned in 2013 and she continued to write about how to make shrewd investments by withholding investing in property. But all the way till 2017, the market had at best dropped to 2011 levels and doesn't look to be moving down any more. With the additional taxes, it doesn't make sense for her to enter again.

    She probably can't reverse at this juncture and must continue to bet on a lower market in everything she writes. If market turns soon, she loses all credibility. If market stays flat or dips further, she can sing the same tune as long as she likes. There is only 1 way to go for her.
    50/50 possibility. As per economic cycle, chance of a recession is on her side. Darn

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    Quote Originally Posted by frumnat View Post
    50/50 possibility. As per economic cycle, chance of a recession is on her side. Darn
    Serious recession does not always mean prices get cheaper.

    It can also mean prices shoot through the roof. Just ask Arcachon.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    teddybear's Avatar
    teddybear is offline Global recession is coming....
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    Next recession should come soon in about 3 years time, and going to be as bad (if not worse than 2008)!

    And recession always cause property price to crash!
    In my so many years of investment experience, I have never seen a time when recession doesn't cause property price to fall...................

    Quote Originally Posted by frumnat View Post
    50/50 possibility. As per economic cycle, chance of a recession is on her side. Darn

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    Quote Originally Posted by frumnat View Post
    I suspect the following:
    1. Already offload most if not all residential properties with exception of own stay and commercial
    2. Wielding her influence to subtly depress prices while preserving cash war chest
    3. Hoping for a BIG CRASH before entering to buy again
    She striked gold during early 2000 and rode the wave, now hoping to strike another jackpot by analyzing the trend. 人算不如天算.

    Even predicting the COE is hard enough, I was expecting COE to drop early last year when more COE were recycled back to the market, then came Uber supporting the prices. The price down trend was there but who would have expected LCR to scooped up so many COEs with such aggressive bidding?

    Would our local developers expected China developers to be so aggressive in GLS bids?

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    Next recession should come soon in about 3 years time, and going to be as bad (if not worse than 2008)!

    And recession always cause property price to crash!
    In my so many years of investment experience, I have never seen a time when recession doesn't cause property price to fall...................
    You should be able to see recession doesn't cause property price to fall, US is preparing another round of printing soon call unwinding.

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    teddybear is offline Global recession is coming....
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    You must be joking, or being ignorant?

    US is preparing to unwind their monetary policy, and that is not "printing", that is reducing "printed money" in circulation!
    Just like printing money causes hard commodities to rise as US$ exchange rate drops, reducing money in circulation causes US$ exchange rate to rise and hard commodities to drop (e.g. foreign properties!)

    You will soon see US$ exchange rate going up, and then interest rate going up, and soon Singapore hit with higher inflation and recession! Then Singapore property price crash big time!

    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    You should be able to see recession doesn't cause property price to fall, US is preparing another round of printing soon call unwinding.

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    You must be joking, or being ignorant?

    US is preparing to unwind their monetary policy, and that is not "printing", that is taking back "printed money"!

    You will soon see US$ exchange rate going up, and then interest rate going up, and soon Singapore hit with higher inflation and recession! Then property crash big time!
    We shall wait and see how they do unwinding, I still believe they will print their problem away.

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    US performance is as spectacular as Donald Trump.

    Versus SGD it went up to 1.45 thereabouts but is now languishing below 1.35.

    More US meh???

    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    You must be joking, or being ignorant?

    US is preparing to unwind their monetary policy, and that is not "printing", that is reducing "printed money" in circulation!
    Just like printing money causes hard commodities to rise as US$ exchange rate drops, reducing money in circulation causes US$ exchange rate to rise and hard commodities to drop (e.g. foreign properties!)

    You will soon see US$ exchange rate going up, and then interest rate going up, and soon Singapore hit with higher inflation and recession! Then Singapore property price crash big time!
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    We shall wait and see how they do unwinding, I still believe they will print their problem away.
    Either print or borrow. The floods already dissipated billions.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    very simple, there are many bears waiting to jump in.

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    Quote Originally Posted by stl67 View Post
    very simple, there are many bears waiting to jump in.
    Many bears waiting to jump in to buy after recession?

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    Yes, anytime when there is a big dip. Inlcuding myself.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    You should be able to see recession doesn't cause property price to fall, US is preparing another round of printing soon call unwinding.
    Recession may not cause prices to fall. It may but it may not. It depends on the confluence of various factors.

    For some countries, it causes prices to skyrocket. In fact, the same scenario might have been at our doorsteps before, just that we are managing them much better now.

    http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/25/news...int/index.html
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    Recession may not cause prices to fall. It may but it may not. It depends on the confluence of various factors.

    For some countries, it causes prices to skyrocket. In fact, the same scenario might have been at our doorsteps before, just that we are managing them much better now.

    http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/25/news...int/index.html
    Fair enough. But historically property prices never defied gravity during bad times in local context.

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    Or rather, property prices falling may create recession, explaining the past observations.

    http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/10...e-a-recession/

    Quote Originally Posted by frumnat View Post
    Fair enough. But historically property prices never defied gravity during bad times in local context.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  28. #28
    teddybear's Avatar
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    Property price sure crash in next few years!
    Would you bet that property price will not crash within next 10 years (by 2027)?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    Or rather, property prices falling may create recession, explaining the past observations.

    http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/10...e-a-recession/

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    If the theory that price crash leads to recession is true especially for well to do countries, you can be sure the Govt will throw every hammer and nail to prevent it from crashing.

    The bull has just reared its head. The next crash will bring it to a level above today's prices. Got crash but also doesn't benefit those who wait.

    What would you bet? Your 100 year old FH CCR unit?

    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    Property price sure crash in next few years!
    Would you bet that property price will not crash within next 10 years (by 2027)?
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  30. #30
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    No government in the world has demonstrated the ability to stop property price from crashing (for whatever reasons).
    This is just a FACT!
    If you disagree, show us the FACT of which government in the world has ever prevented property price from crashing, otherwise empty talk is just useless, and sounds desperate of trying to talk up the market!

    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    If the theory that price crash leads to recession is true especially for well to do countries, you can be sure the Govt will throw every hammer and nail to prevent it from crashing.

    The bull has just reared its head. The next crash will bring it to a level above today's prices. Got crash but also doesn't benefit those who wait.

    What would you bet? Your 100 year old FH CCR unit?

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