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Thread: Home prices close to bottoming out: Analysts

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    Default Home prices close to bottoming out: Analysts

    Home prices close to bottoming out: Analysts

    JUL 29, 2017

    Private housing prices down 0.1% in Q2, the smallest dip in 15 straight quarters of decline

    Lee Xin En


    Home hunters who may have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for prices to bottom out should now start thinking seriously about taking the plunge, say analysts.

    They believe the private home market is close to the bottom after nearly four years of sliding prices.

    The same goes for the public housing market, which is picking up pace, analysts added. The second quarter saw 6,001 Housing Board resale transactions, the highest recorded since the second quarter of 2013.

    Private home prices fell by 0.1 per cent overall in the second quarter, according to Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) data out yesterday.

    This was the slimmest decline in 15 straight quarters of falls, and is seen as a signal that the market is on the cusp of recovery.

    For example, it was a much slower fall than the 0.4 per cent dip in the previous quarter.

    The figure beat URA's earlier flash estimate of a 0.3 per cent decline.

    The flash estimates are compiled based on transactions in contracts submitted for stamp duty payment and data from developers up until mid-June. The difference between the estimate and actual figure suggests a strong boost in sentiment and transactions in the past month.

    Mr Desmond Sim, head of CBRE Research for Singapore and South- east Asia, said prices have hit rock bottom. He noted: "The market has achieved another data point of a minute price correction, which further reinforces the point that the trough of the market is here."

    Prices of non-landed properties slid 0.1 per cent, following a flat first quarter, while landed property prices fell by 0.3 per cent, after a 1.8 per cent dip in the first quarter.

    Ms Christine Li, Cushman & Wakefield's director of research, added that the number of unsold private residential units has been decreasing since the third quarter of last year.

    "The drop in unsold stock to 8,459 units from 10,335 units in the first quarter represents a decline of 18 per cent quarter on quarter, the fastest pace since the second quarter of 2012,"she said.

    The sleepy resale market was also roused in the second quarter, posting a 70 per cent surge from the first quarter, to hit 3,698 transactions. The rental market remained soft, as rentals of private homes slipped 0.2 per cent - but this was a much slower decline than the first quarter's 0.9 per cent fall.

    The public housing market largely mirrored the private, with a surge in transactions and easing rates of decline in prices.

    HDB resale prices dipped 0.1 per cent for the second quarter, an improvement from a 0.5 per cent in the previous quarter.

    There were 6,001 resale transactions in the second quarter, up 32.5 per cent from the first quarter.

    A price recovery looks imminent, but analysts were split on when it would be.

    Mr Nicholas Mak, head of research at ZACD Group, predicted an upswing in prices next year, with developers testing the market with higher launch prices.

    Most analysts agree that there is momentum in demand.

    Developers sold 3,077 private homes, not counting executive condominiums, in the second quarter - higher than the 2,962 shifted last quarter.

    Mr Ong Teck Hui, JLL's national director of research and consultancy, noted that there were 12,107 private homes sales in the primary and secondary markets in the first half of this year, a surge of nearly 64 per cent from the first half of last year.

    He forecast that a total of 25,000 units would be sold this year, surpassing last year's 22,719 units.

    "Buyers have been flocking back to the market. This trend is expected to continue into the second half of the year, with demand remaining upbeat as buyers try to catch the market before it turns around."

  2. #2
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    Le Quest sold almost 55% (280 out of 516 units) within hours on the launch day.

    They could have sold out everything if they wanted to...

    Huat to all!!

    http://www.straitstimes.com/business...in-bukit-batok

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    surprised. i really don't see the draw of this project.
    leasehold, in the middle of nowhere, not near any MRT, 1280$ psf.
    But anyhow, Good News!
    I guess pentup demand for this location and the fact that it's a mixed development is driving sales.

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    too much cheap money floating around, no where to invest.
    many people who has next to zero investment knowledge and experience trying to deploy their money which is earning near to 0% return (so called "pentup demand). These people probably been burnt investing in other instrument such as stocks and even bonds, and now trying their hand on properties.................

    Anyway, many of them will be burnt badly in the coming property price crash, and then the cycle of drought and dead prices for OCR private properties from 1998-2005 will repeat again..........


    Quote Originally Posted by tonymontana View Post
    surprised. i really don't see the draw of this project.
    leasehold, in the middle of nowhere, not near any MRT, 1280$ psf.
    But anyhow, Good News!
    I guess pentup demand for this location and the fact that it's a mixed development is driving sales.
    Last edited by teddybear; 06-08-17 at 11:55.

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    well, each has their own bias. I'm happy with the news.
    since this 99LH no man's land project (in my own view and bias) can do 1280psf, then my other better located , freehold properties should be quite safe.
    hopefully. fingers crossed.
    crash? when? I don't see it happening anytime soon.
    1998-2005 may be an historical anomaly that won't repeat itself for decades.

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    It looks like the mkt has accepted that $1200-$1300 is the new base price. Remember when centro residences in ask launch at $1000 psf and sky vue and sky habitat launch at 1300 psf, all faced lots of resistance, but now on hindsight looks cheap.

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    People flocking into this project. Hope the 280 buyers know what they buying especially those who bought the smaller ones.
    Quote Originally Posted by anythingwhatever View Post
    Le Quest sold almost 55% (280 out of 516 units) within hours on the launch day.

    They could have sold out everything if they wanted to...

    Huat to all!!

    http://www.straitstimes.com/business...in-bukit-batok

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    No wonder the MC of my FH condo in Bukit Timah area is seeking interest of owners for enbloc.
    Quote Originally Posted by 2824 View Post
    It looks like the mkt has accepted that $1200-$1300 is the new base price. Remember when centro residences in ask launch at $1000 psf and sky vue and sky habitat launch at 1300 psf, all faced lots of resistance, but now on hindsight looks cheap.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 2824 View Post
    It looks like the mkt has accepted that $1200-$1300 is the new base price. Remember when centro residences in ask launch at $1000 psf and sky vue and sky habitat launch at 1300 psf, all faced lots of resistance, but now on hindsight looks cheap.
    The Sky's should be selling fast by now...

  10. #10
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    To me, the signals are mixed, though there are more up signs than down now as we draw closer to SG Election. The cards really stack for me when rentals are going up for both commercial and residential scorecards. The latter is still weak. I am not sure if this is a knee jerk reaction to land bidding records which the media is to blame for making it sensational.

    We know hope falls quickly and we are back to circa 0.1-0/3% down and up quarter to quarter.

    2 cents,
    PropVestor

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