Singapore property prices have peaked - govt

[Ohhhh its coming!]

Australian House Prices Fall Most in Five Years on Higher Rates

By Jacob Greber

June 7 (Bloomberg) -- Australian house prices fell in the first quarter by the most in five years after the central bank raised interest rates at the fastest pace in more than a decade.

The median price for houses fell to A$458,488 ($439,644) in the March quarter, down 2.7 percent from the previous three months, the Real Estate Institute of Australia and Mortgage Choice Ltd. said. Apartments also fell 2.7 percent to A$355,297.

Falling residential prices support the central bank's view that Australia's $1 trillion economy will slow this year, helping ease the fastest inflation in 17 years. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens, who left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at a 12-year high this week, signaled he is prepared to boost borrowing costs again if growth rebounds. He raised the rate in March for the fourth time since August.

``Unfortunately, investors, as well as owner-occupiers, are showing reduced levels of confidence,'' REIA President Noel Dyett said in a statement. ``The fall in median prices isn't surprising, following recent interest rate rises.''

Households, already grappling with higher gasoline and food costs, also were buffeted this year as commercial lenders increased mortgage rates by more than the central bank did.

The nation's five largest lenders, led by Commonwealth Bank of Australia, have added an average of almost 90 basis points to home-loan interest rates this year to cover higher funding costs caused by the squeeze on credit markets. The central bank increased by only 50 basis points in that time.

Mortgage Costs

The jump in borrowing costs eroded consumer confidence close to the lowest level in 15 years and triggered falling retail sales in three of the first four months of this year.

Clive Peeters Ltd., an Australian electrical appliances retailer, said this week the market slowed ``slightly'' in March, deteriorated sharply in April and continued to cool in May.

The Reserve Bank's policy makers left the overnight cash rate target unchanged this week at 7.25 percent. Investors expect the bank to increase the benchmark lending rate by at least a quarter-point in the next 12 months, according to a Credit Suisse Group index based on trading in interest-rate swaps.

About 90 percent of Australian mortgages are taken out on a floating rate, which moves with the central bank's benchmark. A quarter-point increase adds about A$42 ($40) a month to the average A$250,000 home loan, according to the Housing Industry Association.

Economic Growth

Home prices may slide further this year after housing affordability deteriorated in the first quarter to the worst on record, according to a separate report by the real estate institute published May 28.

The proportion of a family's income needed to repay an average home loan climbed to 38 percent in the March quarter from 37.4 percent in the December quarter. That's the highest since the institute began measuring affordability 22 years ago.

House prices slumped the most in Melbourne, falling 8.4 percent in the first quarter, today's report showed. Canberra slid 6.8 percent, Perth dropped 2.5 percent and Sydney shed 0.3 percent. The value of homes gained in Hobart and Adelaide.

``The fall in prices is being offset by the increased cost of financing home loans, so we have yet to see any real impact on housing affordability,'' Dyett said.

[jlrx]

Do some analysis of the a few key statistics to consider before investing, and take out the greed and fear:

1. Affordability (income relative to prices) - if this is an increasing trend, then it is worthwhile to invest as it will mean more people can afford to pay higher prices

2. Rental vacancies - if this is a decreasing trend, then it is worthwhile to invest as it will mean that rental yield will improve

3. General economic outlook (e.g. forecast GDP growth), which will affect item 1 (affordability) and 2 (rental vacancies)

4. Supply in the pipeline, which will affect item 2 (vacancies)

I haven't done the analysis myself, but I suspect the expected higher inflation and lower GDP growth will reduce affordability, and so property prices will be depressed. I can't see any factors that will drive prices higher and a lot depends on how the Singapore economy fares in
the coming months.

Here is another analysis - HDB Flats.

1. Affordability has decreased due to the en bloc downgraders bidding up the price to the extent that young couples now find it hard to come up with cash top ups.

2. Rental Vacancies - not significant. HDBs are mostly owner occupied. Those that are rented out command good rental. The rental market for HDB is now very strong. In fact, newspaper reported recently people illegally subletting flats rented directly from HDB (which are not allowed to be rented out again) to take advantage of the boom.

3. General economic backdrop - the financial turbulence from the US does not impact on the HDB heartland directly. Many HDB folks work in government service anyway, which is shielded from economic crisis.

4. Supply in the pipeline - supply is tightly controlled by the Government. After having learnt the lesson in the last economic crisis when the Government overbuilt and ended up with surplus flats, nowadays the Government only build-to-order (BTO) so supply is very tight to the extent that young couples have to stay with in-laws for a few years before getting a new flat.

Conclusion: Price of HDB unlikely to go down. However, it will not go up much either because the Government needs to ensure affordability. It is a safe bet.

[Unregisteredxx]

So please buy HDB? Poor newcomers, the prices chased up by the rich. Rentals of course will stay strong. All these foreign workers earn so little how to afford private housing? So got moneeee, buy HDBeee.

[Unreg¡stered]

Australian House Prices Fall Most in Five Years on Higher Rates

By Jacob Greber

June 7 (Bloomberg) -- Australian[b] house prices fell in the first quarter by the most in five years after the central bank raised interest rates at the fastest pace in more than a decade.

........................

``The fall in prices is being offset by the increased cost of financing home loans, so we have yet to see any real impact on housing affordability,'' Dyett said.

Stupid Aussie thrash dog, fúck off with your Aussie craps! This is CONDOsingapore.com.

[Unregistered_4]

Stupid Aussie thrash dog, fúck off with your Aussie craps! This is CONDOsingapore.com.

ALREADY CAN SEE THE FRUSTRATION. PRAY THAT YOU STILL ESCAPE WITH YOUR ASS INTACT AND NOT BURNED OR FRIED. HAHAHAHA.

[jlrx]

Do some analysis of the a few key statistics to consider before investing, and take out the greed and fear:

1. Affordability (income relative to prices) - if this is an increasing trend, then it is worthwhile to invest as it will mean more people can afford to pay higher prices

2. Rental vacancies - if this is a decreasing trend, then it is worthwhile to invest as it will mean that rental yield will improve

3. General economic outlook (e.g. forecast GDP growth), which will affect item 1 (affordability) and 2 (rental vacancies)

4. Supply in the pipeline, which will affect item 2 (vacancies)

I haven't done the analysis myself, but I suspect the expected higher inflation and lower GDP growth will reduce affordability, and so property prices will be depressed. I can't see any factors that will drive prices higher and a lot depends on how the Singapore economy fares in
the coming months.

Here is another analysis ...

* Disclaimer: This one I have vested interests so my analysis may be biased.

Freehold Landed Properties other than Good Class Bungalows

1. Affordability - not much change . No doubt the price of landed houses has gone up, tracking the broader market, but so has the income of the prospective buyers of such properties, who happen to be on the "right" side of the widening income gap.

2. Rental Vacancies - not significant. Landed properties are usually owner-occupied. Anyway, most people buy landed properties for investing in the "scarcity value of land" rather than for rental income. It's like collecting Picasso or Da Vinci artworks - you don't ask how much "rental" or "interests" you are paid for holding on to the painting. You just hold on to it until you need money - or rather your grandchildren need money because they have squandered away all the family wealth - then sell it.

3. General economic backdrop - Landed houses are mostly owned by Singaporeans/PRs so they are more immune to global economic crises and the caprice of foreign investors. People who buy landed houses usually hold senior positions such as directors of government departments, school principals, professionals such as doctors/ lawyers/ accountants and owners of local businesses which are quite recession-proof.

4. Supply in the pipeline - Very little to almost Nil. The only landed sites ever released by the Government are 99-year leasehold sites that are very very far away from town, like Sembawang or Jurong West, which are extremely unattractive. In fact the stock of landed houses is diminishing over the years as more landed houses are torn down to turn into condominiums, but never the other way round.

Conclusion: Price of freehold landed houses will remain firm. In fact, since the start of the sub-prime crisis, my condo's price has come down about 5% but my landed house has gone up about 5%, based on transactions around the same area.

[jlrx]

Here is another analysis - HDB Flats.

1. Affordability has decreased due to the en bloc downgraders bidding up the price to the extent that young couples now find it hard to come up with cash top ups.

2. Rental Vacancies - not significant. HDBs are mostly owner occupied. Those that are rented out command good rental. The rental market for HDB is now very strong. In fact, newspaper reported recently people illegally subletting flats rented directly from HDB (which are not allowed to be rented out again) to take advantage of the boom.

3. General economic backdrop - the financial turbulence from the US does not impact on the HDB heartland directly. Many HDB folks work in government service anyway, which is shielded from economic crisis.

4. Supply in the pipeline - supply is tightly controlled by the Government. After having learnt the lesson in the last economic crisis when the Government overbuilt and ended up with surplus flats, nowadays the Government only build-to-order (BTO) so supply is very tight to the extent that young couples have to stay with in-laws for a few years before getting a new flat.

Conclusion: Price of HDB unlikely to go down. However, it will not go up much either because the Government needs to ensure affordability. It is a safe bet.

Refer to my analysis of HDB flats above.

Looks like my analysis is pretty accurate ...

The Business Times

Published June 11, 2008


Mr Mah: For new flats, higher costs will probably feed through indirectly as market price of flats goes up

Speaking to the media at HDB yesterday, National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan said that 'construction costs have gone up significantly both for the building of private as well as public housing'. According to him, construction costs may have risen 20 to 30 per cent in general.

Asked how much of the increase in construction costs would go to buyers, he said that 'for new flats, it should not feed directly through to the buyers, but it will probably feed through indirectly as the market price of flats goes up'.

Mr Mah also expects demand for HDB flats to strengthen if Singapore's population grows as it has over the last few years. 'We are monitoring the situation, and as the demand grows, we are also increasing the supply.'

He pointed out, however, that 'we must also always be careful that we do not overbuild.'

[Unreg¡stered]

ALREADY CAN SEE THE FRUSTRATION. PRAY THAT YOU STILL ESCAPE WITH YOUR ASS INTACT AND NOT BURNED OR FRIED. HAHAHAHA.

I have no interest in condos. I am here to fúck Aussie Thrash Dog barking in another country's forum. Start praying Aussie Thrash Dog.

[read the actual reports]

Credit Suisse
http://www.remisiers.org/research//S...erty3Jun08.pdf

Goldman Sachs
http://www.remisiers.org/research//d...t.pdf&st=1.pdf

[Unregisturd]

高盛分析师调低评级 房地产股普遍下滑

（2008-06-11）

● 李韵琳
　　过去半年来苦等本地房地产市场放晴的发展商，原以为有中国和越南房地产市场做后盾，但这两个地区的房市也转淡，前景在通货膨胀和贷款紧缩的压力下更是一片茫然。

　　在海内外不利市道的双重打击下，高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析师昨天将本地房地产业的评级从“买入”调低至“持守”，导致房地产股在昨天的交易中普遍下滑，三大主要发展商的股价更跌至两个多月来的低点。

　　分析师也把6个在新中越三地拥有项目的发展商，即嘉德置地(CapitaLand)、城市发展(CDL)、吉宝置业(Keppel Land)、国浩置地(GuocoLand)和长春产业(Allgreen Properties)的目标价位下调12％至32％，2010年的每股盈利也平均调低了7％。

　　分析师预计，本地房地产价格将在今年持续趋软，高档私宅价格将下跌10％，大众化私宅价格也可能下滑5％，并在明年进一步退低。

　　“下跌势头将由高档房地产带头，进而蔓延到大众市场。我们相信中档和大众市场的购买力将受通货膨胀以及环球经济前景不明朗因素影响。此外，一些财力较弱的发展商将被迫‘屈服’，以较低的价格推出新项目，而在延迟付款计划(Deferred Payment Scheme)下购买房子的一些投资者，也可能在项目于2009或2010年完工前抛售。”