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Thread: Do property prices always recover to go up higher?

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    Default Do property prices always recover to go up higher?

    http://propertysoul.com/2015/03/31/p...ways-recovers/

    Do property prices always recover to go up higher?

    March 31, 2015

    Recently, there are reports on units in high-end condominium projects being sold at a big loss.

    As property buyers, we hear too often from developers and property agents that property prices will always go up in the long run.

    Does the property market always manage to recover, with prices going higher than the previous peak? Is it true that any time is a good time to buy?

    Below is an abstract from my book No B.S. Guide to Property Investment about one of my real-life property stories and the lessons learned.


    In 2003, I bought a unit in a seafront condominium.

    When it was under renovation, two neighbors staying at the units above mine dropped by for a chat.

    They both bought their place first-hand from the developer.

    “Do you mind telling us what price you paid?”

    I told them the amount.

    “Oh, that was more or less what we paid for last time.”

    “Which year did you buy your place?”

    “It was 1984. Do you know about their launch at that time?”

    “I don’t know. I was still in primary school in 1984.”

    I did a search of the old newspapers. I found that the condominium was selling in a depressed market that year. My two neighbors weren’t overpaying at all.

    It was amazing that, almost twenty years later, despite inflation and depreciation, and after all the ups and downs in the economy, we were back to the launch price!

    Who said prices can’t go back twenty years? They don’t just go back, they can even go back to where they start.


    Prices can’t drop lower?

    Between 2002 and 2004, my strategy was to buy rental properties at fifteen percent lower than the last transacted price. In that way, I still had a fifteen percent buffer in case prices dropped further. And once the market recovered, I could sell them at any price and still make a profit.

    I did make money. But I was wrong.

    How could I tell that prices couldn’t drop another fifteen or twenty percent?

    Many people who bought in 1995 held on to their overpriced purchase. They struggled through the recession in 2001, SARS in 2003, the downturn in 2004… Every time when they thought that the bad days were finally over, a more severe storm came.

    Do you know that the value of properties can drop to zero or even negative? It happens when prices fall below the cost of land and the construction cost.

    J. Anthony Boeckh, author of The Great Inflation, told what happened in some US states after the sub-prime crisis:

    “In general, prices nationally have dropped back to the level of the cost of building a new dwelling, which includes land acquisition, building costs, and profit for the builder.”


    Will exponential growth happen again?

    Prices of landed properties in Singapore have increased 75 to 100 times in the last fifty years. But can they rise at the same rate in the next fifty years?

    I doubt so.

    In the 1960s, Singapore’s infrastructure, economy and social stability were very different from today. The ease of borrowing and the pool of eligible buyers were also very limited.

    In the last fifty years, Singapore has evolved from an emerging country to a developed nation. It is with substantial improvement in our economy and living standard, coupled with easy financing, that housing prices can climb to where they are today.

    Markets that achieved high growth in the past cannot guarantee continued growth. On the contrary, it may imply that the boom may soon be over. Once the fundamentals are changed, the trend will be reversed.

    There are many countries that used to have a strong economy. Then they experienced recession. Some managed to recover and grow again while others have remained weak since then.

    Although history often repeats itself, there are also things in history that, once they are gone, they are gone forever.


    When, or will it ever, recover?

    There is a saying that, in each property cycle, prices always surpass the previous peak to reach an all-time high. This happened several times in the history of the Singapore property market. But the question is: When?

    The commodity bull market which started in the early 1930s was surpassed only by the bull market in 1970s. Just look at gold, there was a very long period of depressed prices after its collapse in 1980.

    Amid spiraling property prices in 1980s, many Japanese believed they would never be able to afford it if they didn’t buy now. Many borrowed huge housing loans that could only be paid off by their grandchildren. The bubble that burst in the late 1980s started two lost decades in Japan.

    This is how Marc Faber described a major market collapse, as compared to a minor correction:

    "Major manias occur very infrequently. Once they burst, they shake an entire generation’s faith in the object of speculation … while mini manias may take place every few years … a major mania will represent the final stage, or culmination, of a long-term secular up-trend which may have lasted 10 to 25 years."



    What are the lessons learned?

    Only invest if you have the answers for the following questions:

    • Can you see any upside in the fundamentals in the foreseeable future?

    • How long do you think you can see profit from your property investment?

    • Do you have the holding power to wait till the next bull run?

    • Will you see a recovery before your retirement (and at least live to see that happen)?


    Next time when you want to ask me when is a good time to buy again, take the hint from investor Jim Rogers.

    "Bottoms in the investment world don’t end with four-year lows. They end with 10 or 15-year lows. You do not buy unless it is cheap and unless you see positive change coming within next 2 to 3 years."

    Can you see positive or negative changes coming on their way?

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    Why 2003 ? Why not 2006 ?

    Because I choose to tell you what I want you to know.



    http://propertystuff.sg/

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    Recently, there are reports on units in high-end condominium projects being sold at a big loss.

    The facts.

    The owner of a penthouse at St Regis Residences booked an eye-popping loss of $15.8 million when he sold the apartment last month(Because he over paid). It is the biggest loss ever made on an apartment sale here.

    The two-storey unit in Tanglin Road, with a swimming pool on the upper floor and views over Nassim Road greenery, first made headlines in 2007 when Japanese billionaire Katsumi Tada shelled out a record-smashing $28 million - or $4,653 per sq ft - for it.

    Mr Tada's generous offer back then gave the lucky seller a profit of $12.77 million, but it has turned out to be a bad investment and underscores how fortunes have turned in the high-end property market, where more instances of loss-making transactions are surfacing.

    The new owner is Mr Andy Chua, who owns Yun Nam Hair Care. He snapped up the 6,017 sq ft apartment at the 173-unit project in a cash transaction of $12.2 million, or $2,028 psf, according to records lodged with the Singapore Land Authority.

    Mr Samuel Eyo, managing director of Singapore Christie's Homes, said Mr Chua probably got a bargain as the price was low for luxury projects in the area, which sell for between $2,500 psf and $3,000 psf. -


    See more at: http://www.straitstimes.com/news/bus....wbl6FvHI.dpuf


    ---------------------------------------------------

    Japanese billionaire Katsumi Tada suffered the biggest apartment sale loss of $15.8 million in Singapore when he sold a St Regis penthouse purchased for $28 million in May 2007 for just $12.2 million last month.

    Even market watchers noted that the psf price was a “bargain” for a high-end home in the area. In fact, the unit previously owned by Tada was picked up for just $2,028 psf compared to the usual price range of $2,500 to $3,000 psf for luxury apartments nearby.

    But the shortfall was actually smaller at $12.9 million if one takes into account the fluctuating exchange rate of the Singapore dollar versus the Japanese yen, said experts.

    Based on Bloomberg data, one Singapore dollar was equivalent to 78 yen in 2007 when Tada bought the penthouse. As such, he acquired the property for $28 million or 2.184 billion yen back then.

    http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/prope...tment-sale-cus


    http://business.asiaone.com/news/how...-st-regis-unit

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    I brought my 5 room HDB 126 sqm for SGD 250,000 in 1995.

    What can you buy with SGD 250,000 now.

    I brought my 2 Bedroom @ Southbank 958 sqft for SGD 535,000 in Jun 2006.

    What can you buy with SGD 535,000 now.

    I brought my 3 Bedroom @ Terrasse 1453 sqft for SGD 1,305,800 in May 2011.

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    Vip

    although this post isvery useful for newbies especially refuting the popular myths..I can't help but notice that you always point out the after effects and data which I m sure most with the availablity of Internet... Most people already know what u pointed out.

    I thought it would be more useful if you could analysis the causes.. factors contributing to such effects, taking into consideration the monetary measures, exchange rate.. the global economy etc... especially the uncharted waters which every countries are facing now.

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    Is the terrasa unit a ground floor unit with platio?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Yuki View Post
    Vip

    although this post isvery useful for newbies especially refuting the popular myths..I can't help but notice that you always point out the after effects and data which I m sure most with the availablity of Internet... Most people already know what u pointed out.

    I thought it would be more useful if you could analysis the causes.. factors contributing to such effects, taking into consideration the monetary measures, exchange rate.. the global economy etc... especially the uncharted waters which every countries are facing now.
    Hi Yuki,

    We need to be able to assess the market profile of the owners and the buyers in order to get a good sensing of the situation. I prefer to analyse based on economic theory and not just price cycles.

    For buyers' overall demand (ability and willingness to buy) just do self-analysis and analysis of the people around yourself who qualify to buy. Are they looking for first homes, or more for investment homes, or upgraders? Each group has their set of unique behaviours and certain groups are already played out by the TDSR. Your sensing of the demand is one part of the equation.

    The other part(s) of the equation are the sellers, which comprise the main suppliers (Govt and old home enbloc-ers), the developers and the existing owners. Who are the actual sellers in your sensing? How would each group behave in the face of the current market condition and the cooling measures?

    For one type of potential seller profile, I suggest we can take Archachon as one example since he has provided very clear numbers for analysis. If the mortgage spikes up to 4%, what are the options he has? What kind of conditions will force him to sell and which would he dispose off first? What options avail thereafter? Supposing another HDB upgrader, what are the conditions he is subject to? Another type is the over-committer - how many are there and what are their options? I feel that your sensing of who are the actual sellers will help you determine the best steps to take.

    Personally, I differentiate between investment homes (all attributes catering for rental demand) versus homes to live in. There is also a marked difference in behaviour between first and subsequent home owners.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    teddybear is offline Global recession is coming....
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    With the SIBOR/SOR interest rate hike, many of those so-called "investors" in heartland OCR private condos will likely be MOST BADLY hit!

    OCR private property prices is expected to CRASH FASTER and HARDER!

    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    Hi Yuki,

    We need to be able to assess the market profile of the owners and the buyers in order to get a good sensing of the situation. I prefer to analyse based on economic theory and not just price cycles.

    For buyers' overall demand (ability and willingness to buy) just do self-analysis and analysis of the people around yourself who qualify to buy. Are they looking for first homes, or more for investment homes, or upgraders? Each group has their set of unique behaviours and certain groups are already played out by the TDSR. Your sensing of the demand is one part of the equation.

    The other part(s) of the equation are the sellers, which comprise the main suppliers (Govt and old home enbloc-ers), the developers and the existing owners. Who are the actual sellers in your sensing? How would each group behave in the face of the current market condition and the cooling measures?

    For one type of potential seller profile, I suggest we can take Archachon as one example since he has provided very clear numbers for analysis. If the mortgage spikes up to 4%, what are the options he has? What kind of conditions will force him to sell and which would he dispose off first? What options avail thereafter? Supposing another HDB upgrader, what are the conditions he is subject to? Another type is the over-committer - how many are there and what are their options? I feel that your sensing of who are the actual sellers will help you determine the best steps to take.

    Personally, I differentiate between investment homes (all attributes catering for rental demand) versus homes to live in. There is also a marked difference in behaviour between first and subsequent home owners.

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    With the SIBOR/SOR interest rate hike, many of those so-called "investors" in heartland OCR private condos will likely be MOST BADLY hit!

    OCR private property prices is expected to CRASH FASTER and HARDER!
    Can also choose to listen to those who do not understand the meaning of mourning, or who believe that high prices are good for everyone, the 1000 year old FH mansion hugger who is divorced from the reality of human behaviour.

    Continue boxing up the world please.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    Hi Yuki,

    We need to be able to assess the market profile of the owners and the buyers in order to get a good sensing of the situation. I prefer to analyse based on economic theory and not just price cycles.

    For buyers' overall demand (ability and willingness to buy) just do self-analysis and analysis of the people around yourself who qualify to buy. Are they looking for first homes, or more for investment homes, or upgraders? Each group has their set of unique behaviours and certain groups are already played out by the TDSR. Your sensing of the demand is one part of the equation.

    The other part(s) of the equation are the sellers, which comprise the main suppliers (Govt and old home enbloc-ers), the developers and the existing owners. Who are the actual sellers in your sensing? How would each group behave in the face of the current market condition and the cooling measures?

    For one type of potential seller profile, I suggest we can take Archachon as one example since he has provided very clear numbers for analysis. If the mortgage spikes up to 4%, what are the options he has? What kind of conditions will force him to sell and which would he dispose off first? What options avail thereafter? Supposing another HDB upgrader, what are the conditions he is subject to? Another type is the over-committer - how many are there and what are their options? I feel that your sensing of who are the actual sellers will help you determine the best steps to take.

    Personally, I differentiate between investment homes (all attributes catering for rental demand) versus homes to live in. There is also a marked difference in behaviour between first and subsequent home owners.
    Thanks for your unbiased assessment of the contributing factors which lead to the cycle. Each cycle is unique.
    Personally I feel that there are many facets to consider (some very lamely put across- but I hope you do get my meaning):
    people: as what you pointed out, the income profile of buyers, sellers, demographics, for rent or for stay, aspirations (I noticed that a debt culture is more prevalent now),
    economy: economic conditions, monetary measures, ease of movement of people i.e. influx of workers, immigrants , interest rates, FTA etcs
    geographic conditions etc: land availability, livability of spore infrastructure etc
    trends: decentralization, technology improvements which makes location more and more irrelevant etc, income disparity, globalization etc
    plus many many more.

    Areas which I find very fascinating are the unusual monetary measures taken by banks - print money! Kudos to Arcachon for educating newbies like me on this. the effects of such measure will have upon our commodities etc. Debasing our money and distorting the $$ of goods etc? I just think that Singapore is too small, the property cycles experienced is not unique to Singapore only, we have to look further off shore to understand why. Simply restricting our analysis to singapore only is too lacking.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Yuki View Post
    Thanks for your unbiased assessment of the contributing factors which lead to the cycle. Each cycle is unique.
    Personally I feel that there are many facets to consider (some very lamely put across- but I hope you do get my meaning):
    people: as what you pointed out, the income profile of buyers, sellers, demographics, for rent or for stay, aspirations (I noticed that a debt culture is more prevalent now),
    economy: economic conditions, monetary measures, ease of movement of people i.e. influx of workers, immigrants , interest rates, FTA etcs
    geographic conditions etc: land availability, livability of spore infrastructure etc
    trends: decentralization, technology improvements which makes location more and more irrelevant etc, income disparity, globalization etc
    plus many many more.

    Areas which I find very fascinating are the unusual monetary measures taken by banks - print money! Kudos to Arcachon for educating newbies like me on this. the effects of such measure will have upon our commodities etc. Debasing our money and distorting the $$ of goods etc? I just think that Singapore is too small, the property cycles experienced is not unique to Singapore only, we have to look further off shore to understand why. Simply restricting our analysis to singapore only is too lacking.
    That's why it's impossible to give a final call on property. Different strata respond very differently to this so-called printing of money, depending on where the money flows to.

    Archachon's enlightening views are meaningful from Govt / banking / businesses' point of view, and I fully agree with him that the changes in the rules of the game is very hard to imagine. How the money gets filtered through the system is another story though.

    I am just glad that at least the TDSR prevents most from over-committing to risks. It will be fairer to all and sort of forces everyone to be more prudent.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    A simple look at the property in Singapore.

    1. The Island can only grow so much.
    2. The people staying on the island can only increase.
    3. Over the years, infrastructure building cost more and Billion have been spend on the Island.
    4. The Island can never go back to farming, only way is high value added industry.
    5. Though LKY have pass way, his grandsons have awaken.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    Can also choose to listen to those who do not understand the meaning of mourning, or who believe that high prices are good for everyone, the 1000 year old FH mansion hugger who is divorced from the reality of human behaviour.

    Continue boxing up the world please.
    lol. finally...

    QUOTE
    "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing."

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    What you said about "who believe that high prices are good for everyone" strike a bell, and reminds me that what your belief contradicts what Mr Lee Kuan Yew said:

    "Former Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew said that even though Singaporeans have been able to own a home through HDB, owners should think twice before selling their flats for a profit because prices will appreciate in value over years.
    "Everybody owns their own homes and the value of their homes go up as development takes place,” he said in a Channel NewsAsia report. “Some are unwise enough to sell their homes, thinking they can buy another one, they then find they can't and have to rent a flat.
    “But those who held on to their homes, I've seen their property values going up, five times, 10 times, 15 times, 20 times. This was the plan which we had from the very beginning, to give everybody a home at cost or below cost and as development takes place, everybody gets a lift, all boats rise as the tide rises.”
    "



    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    Can also choose to listen to those who do not understand the meaning of mourning, or who believe that high prices are good for everyone, the 1000 year old FH mansion hugger who is divorced from the reality of human behaviour.

    Continue boxing up the world please.

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    What you said about "who believe that high prices are good for everyone" strike a bell, and reminds me that what your belief contradicts what Mr Lee Kuan Yew said:

    "Former Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew said that even though Singaporeans have been able to own a home through HDB, owners should think twice before selling their flats for a profit because prices will appreciate in value over years.
    "Everybody owns their own homes and the value of their homes go up as development takes place,” he said in a Channel NewsAsia report. “Some are unwise enough to sell their homes, thinking they can buy another one, they then find they can't and have to rent a flat.
    “But those who held on to their homes, I've seen their property values going up, five times, 10 times, 15 times, 20 times. This was the plan which we had from the very beginning, to give everybody a home at cost or below cost and as development takes place, everybody gets a lift, all boats rise as the tide rises.”
    "
    It's obvious from your previous posts that you meant unbridled and runaway rises and not gradual rise pegged to income growth.

    I think everyone is comfortable with gradual rises, but high prices, maybe only certain people.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    lky only say" But those who held on to their homes, I've seen their property values going up, five times, 10 times, 15 times, 20 times. This was the plan which we had from the very beginning, to give everybody a home at cost or below cost and as development takes place, everybody gets a lift, all boats rise as the tide rises.”

    1) he never say "I've seen their incomes going up 1x,2x,3x,4x This was the plan which we had from the very beginning"
    2) he never define what is cost or below cost.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hopeful View Post
    lky only say" But those who held on to their homes, I've seen their property values going up, five times, 10 times, 15 times, 20 times. This was the plan which we had from the very beginning, to give everybody a home at cost or below cost and as development takes place, everybody gets a lift, all boats rise as the tide rises.”

    1) he never say "I've seen their incomes going up 1x,2x,3x,4x This was the plan which we had from the very beginning"
    2) he never define what is cost or below cost.
    If just want property values grow in a way divorced from income growth, there are several countries which we can refer to.

    Stably growing prices is the best way forward. My expectations are that we are currently in a consolidation stage. After incomes catch up with the price indices, stable growth will continue in a way hedged to income.

    A rampant growth not reflective of economic growths only benefits speculators and penalises those who put in hard work. In the end, future generations also suffer. A stable growth that "lifts all boats" is truly the kind that we must aspire towards. Try explaining this concept to the one(s) who can only think of CCR vs OCR.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    so what was lky trying to say when he say prices, 5x,10x,15,20x increase?

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    What you said about "who believe that high prices are good for everyone" strike a bell, and reminds me that what your belief contradicts what Mr Lee Kuan Yew said:

    "Former Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew said that even though Singaporeans have been able to own a home through HDB, owners should think twice before selling their flats for a profit because prices will appreciate in value over years.
    "Everybody owns their own homes and the value of their homes go up as development takes place,” he said in a Channel NewsAsia report. “Some are unwise enough to sell their homes, thinking they can buy another one, they then find they can't and have to rent a flat.
    “But those who held on to their homes, I've seen their property values going up, five times, 10 times, 15 times, 20 times. This was the plan which we had from the very beginning, to give everybody a home at cost or below cost and as development takes place, everybody gets a lift, all boats rise as the tide rises.”
    "
    Hope you remember "Casino over my dead body".... practically the world the people and the situation change all the times....
    A bottle of Lafite '82 for all my coffeeshop friends yesterday...many don't know what is it....haha...

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    Quote Originally Posted by hopeful View Post
    so what was lky trying to say when he say prices, 5x,10x,15,20x increase?
    Key stats is based on income growth:

    GDP per capita in Singapore..., reaching an all time high of 36897.87 USD in 2013 and a record low of 2529.86 USD in 1960. Approximately the 15X you were asking for. Private properties should have exceeded 20X.

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/sing...gdp-per-capita
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    Key stats is based on income growth:

    GDP per capita in Singapore..., reaching an all time high of 36897.87 USD in 2013 and a record low of 2529.86 USD in 1960. Approximately the 15X you were asking for. Private properties should have exceeded 20X.

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/sing...gdp-per-capita
    mixing up home price increase with GDP per capita and income increase.

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    What is income ?

    Income is what you earn after you working for the number of hour ?

    After 20 to 30 years your income is still working for the number of hour ?

    My income from working reduce by half after 30 years but my rental income increase more than my income from working.

    Did my income increase or decrease ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    What is income ?

    Income is what you earn after you working for the number of hour ?

    After 20 to 30 years your income is still working for the number of hour ?

    My income from working reduce by half after 30 years but my rental income increase more than my income from working.

    Did my income increase or decrease ?
    Why do we really need cooling measures?

    What happens to our productivity if every Singaporean reaches your goal?

    An admirable personal situation, kudos to you.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hopeful View Post
    mixing up home price increase with GDP per capita and income increase.
    If GDP per capita is $2529 USD per year, where do you think our home prices will range?
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    If GDP per capita is $2529 USD per year, where do you think our home prices will range?
    once again, a diversion by mentioning increase in GDP.
    earlier there was mentioned of "Stably growing prices is the best way forward. My expectations are that we are currently in a consolidation stage. After incomes catch up with the price indices, stable growth will continue in a way hedged to income."

    unfortunately there was no mention of income increasing 5x,10x,15x,20x.
    and perhaps can explained what is meant by incomes catching up with prices?

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    If you can not be rich with property....your children will

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    Quote Originally Posted by hopeful View Post
    once again, a diversion by mentioning increase in GDP.
    earlier there was mentioned of "Stably growing prices is the best way forward. My expectations are that we are currently in a consolidation stage. After incomes catch up with the price indices, stable growth will continue in a way hedged to income."

    unfortunately there was no mention of income increasing 5x,10x,15x,20x.
    and perhaps can explained what is meant by incomes catching up with prices?
    GDP increase does not mean income increase.

    It means some are getting more while others are getting less.

    But the property will increase because the one getting more need to protect their income and so they start buying asset.

    This is what happen in China, GHOST TOWN.

    Now they are going oversea to buy.

    The government can only help so much, 8 control measure and for those who think it is too much wait till you start to see it go up again.

    End of the day, buy when you can and not try to time when to buy.

  30. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by hopeful View Post
    once again, a diversion by mentioning increase in GDP.
    earlier there was mentioned of "Stably growing prices is the best way forward. My expectations are that we are currently in a consolidation stage. After incomes catch up with the price indices, stable growth will continue in a way hedged to income."

    unfortunately there was no mention of income increasing 5x,10x,15x,20x.
    and perhaps can explained what is meant by incomes catching up with prices?
    In the last 7 years, prices have moved much faster than incomes have. The two were strongly correlated, although economic cycles do have an impact. In a year with high income (and I dare say also GDP), it is also possible to have recession, SARS etc that trigger short term fluctuations.

    But by and large, affordability has to be closely tied in with income. Runaway prices detached from incomes mean either that rich foreigners are buying, or locals are loaning amounts they cannot actually service if interest rises dramatically.

    The incomes of people around me are steadily rising. I think they are waiting to catch up with the prices. Many of them are waiting for the opportunity. To me, it's obvious and rather simple. When your income reaches the right level, you can reach the desired TDSR and prices will continue northward.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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