Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 30 of 32

Thread: Cooling measures not dragging down home prices: Report

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Posts
    10,829

    Default Cooling measures not dragging down home prices: Report

    http://www.straitstimes.com/archive/...eport-20141224

    Cooling measures not dragging down home prices: Report

    Published on Dec 24, 2014 1:05 AM

    By Rennie Whang


    HOMES have become only marginally more affordable following the many cooling measures introduced over recent years, according to a CBRE report.

    Prices have dropped only slightly and the declines for new homes are likely due in part to the median size for a new apartment shrinking, said Ms Han Huan Mei, associate director of research at CBRE Singapore.

    She noted that cooling measures have not caused prices to plummet as economic fundamentals are still sound, adding: "As long as home buyers are able to service their loans and developers have the power to hold, home prices are less likely to slide."

    The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) private residential price index shows that prices peaked in the third quarter of last year, having risen 62 per cent from the second quarter of 2009 when the market began recovering from the global financial crisis.

    A range of cooling measures since those heady days have seemingly had only a minor effect on values, with the index down just 3.9 per cent in the 12 months from Oct 1 last year to Sept 30 this year.

    On closer look, the median price of new homes rose by 12 per cent to $1.08 million from the start of 2009 to the end of last year but has fallen 9 per cent to $1.02 million over this full year, Ms Han said.

    Resale prices have suffered less.

    The median price of a home rose by 65 per cent to $1.4 million from the start of 2009 to the end of last year before easing 4 per cent to $1.34 million over this year.

    The threshold for new homes has held steady at about $1 million while that for resale homes has been at about $1.3 million for the past five years, Ms Han said.

    But the median size of a new home has fallen steadily, from 1,195 sq ft in 2009 to 753 sq ft this year.

    Developers have opted to build compact units for new projects to keep the lump sum price affordable, Ms Han said.

    But the median size of a resale home has remained constant at above 1,200 sq ft through the years.

    Ms Han said the $1 million threshold for new homes is likely to stay as long as wages remain stable and in line with inflation but the squeeze on space will continue if costs increase.

    Overall, the URA residential price index - which factors in a weighted "moving average" of transactions over 12 quarters - for all residential homes showed a decline in prices of 3 per cent over the first nine months of this year.

    But the fall for new homes was likely around 6 per cent, which is "more likely a function of shrinking size", said Ms Han, while resale home prices fell by about 4 per cent over the same period.

    The sharper fall in new home values may also be due to price cuts in some projects nearing completion, as developers focus on clearing unsold units.

    The Vermont At Cairnhill sold 37 units in August after prices were trimmed by 12 per cent while about 130 homes at Sky Habitat were sold in April after a price cut of 10 to 15 per cent.

    Home sale volumes have dropped by about half one year after the Total Debt Servicing Ratio was introduced and have "continued at a lukewarm pace", Ms Han noted.

    She tipped next year's home sales volume to be similar to this year's.

    Home prices are likely to "see modest corrections until they reach an equilibrium", she added.

    [email protected]

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Posts
    386

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by reporter2 View Post
    http://www.straitstimes.com/archive/...eport-20141224

    Cooling measures not dragging down home prices: Report

    Published on Dec 24, 2014 1:05 AM

    By Rennie Whang


    HOMES have become only marginally more affordable following the many cooling measures introduced over recent years, according to a CBRE report.

    Prices have dropped only slightly and the declines for new homes are likely due in part to the median size for a new apartment shrinking, said Ms Han Huan Mei, associate director of research at CBRE Singapore.

    She noted that cooling measures have not caused prices to plummet as economic fundamentals are still sound, adding: "As long as home buyers are able to service their loans and developers have the power to hold, home prices are less likely to slide."

    The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) private residential price index shows that prices peaked in the third quarter of last year, having risen 62 per cent from the second quarter of 2009 when the market began recovering from the global financial crisis.

    A range of cooling measures since those heady days have seemingly had only a minor effect on values, with the index down just 3.9 per cent in the 12 months from Oct 1 last year to Sept 30 this year.

    On closer look, the median price of new homes rose by 12 per cent to $1.08 million from the start of 2009 to the end of last year but has fallen 9 per cent to $1.02 million over this full year, Ms Han said.

    Resale prices have suffered less.

    The median price of a home rose by 65 per cent to $1.4 million from the start of 2009 to the end of last year before easing 4 per cent to $1.34 million over this year.

    The threshold for new homes has held steady at about $1 million while that for resale homes has been at about $1.3 million for the past five years, Ms Han said.

    But the median size of a new home has fallen steadily, from 1,195 sq ft in 2009 to 753 sq ft this year.

    Developers have opted to build compact units for new projects to keep the lump sum price affordable, Ms Han said.

    But the median size of a resale home has remained constant at above 1,200 sq ft through the years.

    Ms Han said the $1 million threshold for new homes is likely to stay as long as wages remain stable and in line with inflation but the squeeze on space will continue if costs increase.

    Overall, the URA residential price index - which factors in a weighted "moving average" of transactions over 12 quarters - for all residential homes showed a decline in prices of 3 per cent over the first nine months of this year.

    But the fall for new homes was likely around 6 per cent, which is "more likely a function of shrinking size", said Ms Han, while resale home prices fell by about 4 per cent over the same period.

    The sharper fall in new home values may also be due to price cuts in some projects nearing completion, as developers focus on clearing unsold units.

    The Vermont At Cairnhill sold 37 units in August after prices were trimmed by 12 per cent while about 130 homes at Sky Habitat were sold in April after a price cut of 10 to 15 per cent.

    Home sale volumes have dropped by about half one year after the Total Debt Servicing Ratio was introduced and have "continued at a lukewarm pace", Ms Han noted.

    She tipped next year's home sales volume to be similar to this year's.

    Home prices are likely to "see modest corrections until they reach an equilibrium", she added.

    [email protected]
    Exactly what I was thinking! CMs have been useless!

  3. #3
    teddybear's Avatar
    teddybear is offline Global recession is coming....
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    10,800

    Default

    CMs have been BIG FAILURE!

    Quote Originally Posted by pmet View Post
    Exactly what I was thinking! CMs have been useless!

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Southbank
    Posts
    9,531

    Default

    If the Bank can loan me money I will still buy.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Posts
    4,035

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    If the Bank can loan me money I will still buy.
    Supposing you can loan max 1.5million, would you rather loan 1.2 million for buffer? Or no buffer?
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Southbank
    Posts
    9,531

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    Supposing you can loan max 1.5million, would you rather loan 1.2 million for buffer? Or no buffer?
    Depends on what is your next purchase, your max 1.5 million is base on.

    e.g.

    If you buy SGD 535,000 and valuation is 1.5 million what will you do.

    a. 80% of 1.5 million is 1.2 million. - 428,000 (535,000 x 0.8) = 772,000.(can loan)
    b. Do nothing.
    c. Wait for Durian to fall.

    After you have loan let say 660,000 what will you do.

    a. Buy another 1.2 , 1.3, or 1.4
    b. Do nothing.
    c. Wait for Durian to fall.

    After you have buy and you have another 330,000 what will you do.

    If bank can loan me I will still buy.

    GLS is always high then the previous sale if low they stop selling. Buy new launch take 4 years to build, one years inflation 4%, 4 yrs 16%.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Southbank
    Posts
    9,531

    Default


  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Southbank
    Posts
    9,531

    Default

    Last edited by Arcachon; 31-12-14 at 04:50.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Southbank
    Posts
    9,531

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    7,827

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    CMs have been BIG FAILURE!

    HHAHA...does it mean that your prediction of a CRASH is nothing more than just hot air? (EBD : ALL FART NO SHIT)
    "Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."

  11. #11
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Posts
    4,035

    Default

    OK, point taken. But if you are international traveller, why invest here despite all the restrictions? Are there any other localities (countries) that you would consider? In a strong way, TDSR and ABSD acts in a big way to restrict multiple leveraging in this manner if I am not mistaken.

    Is there a need to balance the investment portfolio with other instruments? Or all SG property?



    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    Depends on what is your next purchase, your max 1.5 million is base on.

    e.g.

    If you buy SGD 535,000 and valuation is 1.5 million what will you do.

    a. 80% of 1.5 million is 1.2 million. - 428,000 (535,000 x 0.8) = 772,000.(can loan)
    b. Do nothing.
    c. Wait for Durian to fall.

    After you have loan let say 660,000 what will you do.

    a. Buy another 1.2 , 1.3, or 1.4
    b. Do nothing.
    c. Wait for Durian to fall.

    After you have buy and you have another 330,000 what will you do.

    If bank can loan me I will still buy.

    GLS is always high then the previous sale if low they stop selling. Buy new launch take 4 years to build, one years inflation 4%, 4 yrs 16%.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Posts
    437

    Default

    I have been thinking about this as well on the diversification. hmnmn

    currently owned 3 units and looking forward to build to 10 units in SG for passive income/retirement plan

    would you fully paid all units if you could or leverage further?

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Posts
    693

    Default

    how to invest up to 10 units when you have all these ABSD in place?

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    9,217

    Default

    IMO, SG property owners who have bought properties more than 3 years ago should keep them and can consider to diversify into other markets with spare cash and minimal mortgage loan or better still w/o mortgage loan as interest will rise when Fed raise rates.
    Quote Originally Posted by kellogs View Post
    I have been thinking about this as well on the diversification. hmnmn

    currently owned 3 units and looking forward to build to 10 units in SG for passive income/retirement plan

    would you fully paid all units if you could or leverage further?

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    9,217

    Default

    It is the mother of all Cooling measures, TDSR, that kills the opportunity of owning more properties. Only able to achieve half before the 2nd CM.
    Quote Originally Posted by stl67 View Post
    how to invest up to 10 units when you have all these ABSD in place?

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Posts
    390

    Default

    CM has killed the volume, that's for sure. not sure if that is intended effect….

    SSD also have killed the speculator market, so that's very successful. not sure if having SSD all the way to 4 years in this market is necessary...

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Southbank
    Posts
    9,531

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    OK, point taken. But if you are international traveller, why invest here despite all the restrictions? Are there any other localities (countries) that you would consider? In a strong way, TDSR and ABSD acts in a big way to restrict multiple leveraging in this manner if I am not mistaken.

    Is there a need to balance the investment portfolio with other instruments? Or all SG property?
    Staying in France since Mar 2007, look into their property for a few years not much capital appreciation.

    Was in US for 30 months, the distance from Singapore to US is too far.

    Went to London for a Day Trip, don't like the place prefer Singapore.

    Singapore is still the best place to park your money, the day of capital appreciation from SGD 535,000 to SGD 1,550,000 in 4 years period are over.

    But for long term Singapore is still the best against inflation and money printing.

    The Government have change a lot since the last election, the next election should see more clearly where is Singapore heading toward.

    When too many Smart people try to steer the ship most of the time the ship go nowhere and worst reverse to where it start like Taiwan.

    When I buy share, the whole market crash better don't. Other instruments are under someone control, small fishes normally get eaten alive.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Southbank
    Posts
    9,531

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008 View Post
    It is the mother of all Cooling measures, TDSR, that kills the opportunity of owning more properties. Only able to achieve half before the 2nd CM.
    MAS know the Fed cannot stop printing money only way to control the market is TDSR.

    The US is going for QE4 soon, money is not going to the people, the Bank is still holding the money. Swiss is going for negative deposit interest.

    Money is not mean to keep in the Bank, money is to loan and generate income. The higher the Money deposited the more risk you have, if you are in Russia, India, Malaysia........

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Posts
    237

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    Staying in France since Mar 2007, look into their property for a few years not much capital appreciation.

    Was in US for 30 months, the distance from Singapore to US is too far.

    Went to London for a Day Trip, don't like the place prefer Singapore.

    Singapore is still the best place to park your money, the day of capital appreciation from SGD 535,000 to SGD 1,550,000 in 4 years period are over.

    But for long term Singapore is still the best against inflation and money printing.

    The Government have change a lot since the last election, the next election should see more clearly where is Singapore heading toward.

    When too many Smart people try to steer the ship most of the time the ship go nowhere and worst reverse to where it start like Taiwan.

    When I buy share, the whole market crash better don't. Other instruments are under someone control, small fishes normally get eaten alive.
    For an international investor, not sure if SG is really such a fantastic market, when you compare with the likes of London, HK, Tokyo, Sydney, even Jakarta. London has certainly outperformed SG since 2009, and it is a far more vibrant & mature market.

    Being Singaporeans, we too often tend to bask in our own perceived glory. Does an international investor really want to fork out 15% ABSD? I believe most foreigners who buy now have plenty of spare money, and SG is just a small diversification of their considerable wealth.

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    9,217

    Default

    I take a more conservative stance and have already diversified into other types of investment tools given the volatile market ahead.
    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    MAS know the Fed cannot stop printing money only way to control the market is TDSR.

    The US is going for QE4 soon, money is not going to the people, the Bank is still holding the money. Swiss is going for negative deposit interest.

    Money is not mean to keep in the Bank, money is to loan and generate income. The higher the Money deposited the more risk you have, if you are in Russia, India, Malaysia........

  21. #21
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Southbank
    Posts
    9,531

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Warren49 View Post
    For an international investor, not sure if SG is really such a fantastic market, when you compare with the likes of London, HK, Tokyo, Sydney, even Jakarta. London has certainly outperformed SG since 2009, and it is a far more vibrant & mature market.

    Being Singaporeans, we too often tend to bask in our own perceived glory. Does an international investor really want to fork out 15% ABSD? I believe most foreigners who buy now have plenty of spare money, and SG is just a small diversification of their considerable wealth.
    When you build infrastructure you need money where you get it, from the land sale and property tax, sale tax etc. When you have recover your investment and you still trying to suck the market, the market have only one way and that is to go up and soon it become a bubble. Responsible government know when to stop, they don't need the hot money.

  22. #22
    teddybear's Avatar
    teddybear is offline Global recession is coming....
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    10,800

    Default

    I will get out of S$ cash (except my properties)...........
    After GE, S$ sure drop!

    Oh, by the way, according to historical precedence, after GE, many things prices will also increase... Likely more "wealth" tax to tax almost everybody living in Singapore (even though >90% of people are not considered "wealthy" - but never mind because that is our definition, not theirs)............ This is especially so when SO MUCH MONEY has been dispensed before GE for PGP, wage credit, productivity scheme for companies, child-care subsidies (just for the companies to raise their fares! ), more $$$ for the low and now including middle-income families etc!

    GE heard speculation around 2016 H1.

    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008 View Post
    I take a more conservative stance and have already diversified into other types of investment tools given the volatile market ahead.
    Last edited by teddybear; 31-12-14 at 14:57.

  23. #23
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    9,217

    Default

    They have to also see if all the stars are aligned before they decide on the date. Look at the way EU, Japan and China print money. It is scary.
    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    I will get out of S$ cash (except my properties)...........
    After GE, S$ sure drop!

    Oh, by the way, according to historical precedence, after GE, many things prices will also increase... Likely more "wealth" tax to tax almost everybody living in Singapore (even though >90% of people are not considered "wealthy" - but never mind because that is our definition, not theirs)............ This is especially so when SO MUCH MONEY has been dispensed before GE for PGP, wage credit, productivity scheme for companies, child-care subsidies (just for the companies to raise their fares! ), more $$$ for the low and now including middle-income families etc!

    GE heard speculation around 2016 H1.

  24. #24
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Southbank
    Posts
    9,531

    Default

    Problem are people in Singapore look at TDSR instead and waiting for Durian to drop.

  25. #25
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    543

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    I will get out of S$ cash (except my properties)...........
    After GE, S$ sure drop!

    Oh, by the way, according to historical precedence, after GE, many things prices will also increase... Likely more "wealth" tax to tax almost everybody living in Singapore (even though >90% of people are not considered "wealthy" - but never mind because that is our definition, not theirs)............ This is especially so when SO MUCH MONEY has been dispensed before GE for PGP, wage credit, productivity scheme for companies, child-care subsidies (just for the companies to raise their fares! ), more $$$ for the low and now including middle-income families etc!

    GE heard speculation around 2016 H1.
    Teddy, all depend of the result.. if result turn out poor, u will know what it will be like.
    A bottle of Lafite '82 for all my coffeeshop friends yesterday...many don't know what is it....haha...

  26. #26
    teddybear's Avatar
    teddybear is offline Global recession is coming....
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    10,800

    Default

    Result? PAP win >2/3 of the MP seats lah! Will there be a 2nd outcome?

    S$ drop is quite sure, a matter of time only, otherwise GDP cannot grow.........

    After GE tax increases also most likely because give out too much "goodies", must recover costs otherwise will be in deficit, no money to pay salary and to give out "goodies" next time before GE again...................

    Quote Originally Posted by walkthetiger View Post
    Teddy, all depend of the result.. if result turn out poor, u will know what it will be like.

  27. #27
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    7,827

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    I will get out of S$ cash (except my properties)...........
    After GE, S$ sure drop!

    Oh, by the way, according to historical precedence, after GE, many things prices will also increase... Likely more "wealth" tax to tax almost everybody living in Singapore (even though >90% of people are not considered "wealthy" - but never mind because that is our definition, not theirs)............ This is especially so when SO MUCH MONEY has been dispensed before GE for PGP, wage credit, productivity scheme for companies, child-care subsidies (just for the companies to raise their fares! ), more $$$ for the low and now including middle-income families etc!

    GE heard speculation around 2016 H1.

    Talk is cheap. Get out of S$? Buy what? Hell money? LOL
    "Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."

  28. #28
    teddybear's Avatar
    teddybear is offline Global recession is coming....
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    10,800

    Default

    You don't know how to get out of S$ to get better deal? Oh, pity your ignorance or you have no $$$ to get out of S$?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33 View Post
    Talk is cheap. Get out of S$? Buy what? Hell money? LOL

  29. #29
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    543

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    Result? PAP win >2/3 of the MP seats lah! Will there be a 2nd outcome?

    S$ drop is quite sure, a matter of time only, otherwise GDP cannot grow.........

    After GE tax increases also most likely because give out too much "goodies", must recover costs otherwise will be in deficit, no money to pay salary and to give out "goodies" next time before GE again...................
    History just a reference/guide, major things appear similar but doesn’t always turn out like a carbon copy of past event. It is constantly evolving to something else. Happy New Year.
    A bottle of Lafite '82 for all my coffeeshop friends yesterday...many don't know what is it....haha...

  30. #30
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    7,827

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    You don't know how to get out of S$ to get better deal? Oh, pity your ignorance or you have no $$$ to get out of S$?
    All that big talk about you know so much are just BIG TALK (aka talk cock sing song) unless you are tell us specifically what you are trading your S$ and why it it better.

    So teddybear, please for once tell us something that we dont already know.

    perhaps investing in air filtration business using human lungs? LOL!!
    "Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."

Similar Threads

  1. Will rising home prices raise the risk of fresh cooling measures?
    By reporter2 in forum Singapore Private Condominium Property Discussion and News
    Replies: 0
    -: 30-11-21, 08:43
  2. Property cooling measures to be eased in Q4: report
    By reporter2 in forum Singapore Private Condominium Property Discussion and News
    Replies: 0
    -: 18-03-16, 17:30
  3. Cooling measures rein in home prices
    By reporter2 in forum Singapore Private Condominium Property Discussion and News
    Replies: 0
    -: 08-04-13, 12:14
  4. Cooling measures loom as resale home prices rise
    By reporter2 in forum Singapore Private Condominium Property Discussion and News
    Replies: 15
    -: 24-06-12, 23:28
  5. Non-landed home resale prices fall due to property cooling measures
    By Naruto in forum Singapore Private Condominium Property Discussion and News
    Replies: 0
    -: 21-03-12, 17:30

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •