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Thread: Property market seen growing on a strong Sing dollar

  1. #1
    mr funny is offline Any complaints please PM me
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    Default Property market seen growing on a strong Sing dollar

    Published April 17, 2008

    Property market seen growing on a strong Sing dollar

    Fast income growth, falling interest rates will keep the sector buoyant, says report


    HERE'S some good news for those feeling down after recent bearish reports on the local property market.

    Canadian-based BCA Research this week issued a Buy Singapore Property Stocks report, arguing that a strong Singapore dollar will depress interest rates, which will continue to fuel the property market.

    It also pointed to strong income growth and other fundamentals - for instance, the transformation of Singapore's economy and favourable supply-demand dynamics - which it says will continue to underpin the Singapore real estate bull market.

    'While real estate prices in Singapore have been rising for a while, the pace of appreciation is unlikely to slow much given the solid fundamentals of this market,' BCA Research argues.

    'The bull market in property stocks will resume given the positive backdrop of the real estate sector. The valuations of real estate stocks have become very attractive, based on almost all price ratios. Dividend yields for this sector, at 2.1 per cent, compare extremely favourably with domestic bonds that are yielding 1-2 per cent.

    'Property stocks have underperformed the Singapore equity benchmark since early 2007 and it appears a trend reversal is under way.'

    In its report, the research house notes that the supply-demand dynamics in Singapore's real estate market are positive and valuations are not overly expensive. The government's measures last year have cooled housing activity somewhat, which has dented the performance of real estate stocks, BCA notes.

    'Nevertheless, strong income growth and depressed interest rates suggest that the property market in Singapore will stay buoyant,' it adds.

    The report also says that 'when measured against the long-term trend of income per capita, property prices are still in a catch-up phase after a major undershoot in the aftermath of the Asian crisis'.

    Housing affordability has not yet deteriorated, thanks to fast income growth and a plunge in interest rates. Rental yields have gone up as rent increases have been outpacing property prices.

    'Rising rental yields in the wake of plunging interest rates are not sustainable, as the arbitrage opportunity will be exploited,' says BCA. 'Given the supply-demand dynamics in Singapore's real estate market, a further increase in property prices is the most likely scenario at the moment. Despite the three-year dramatic appreciation in property prices, housing supply has not become excessive.'

    According to BCA, the supply of residential and office real estate is far from the level at the peak of the last bubble in 1996. It also says the impact of scrapping the Deferred Payment Scheme in slowing activity in the housing market appears to be waning.

    The Singapore economy is also unlikely to weaken substantially during this global growth downturn, as it has become more diversified in recent years.

  2. #2
    analyst101 Guest

    Cool Re: Property market seen growing on a strong Sing dollar

    This is an interesting contrarian position.

    The report from the local based UBS research (issued 11 April 2008) was less optimistic.

    My own take is that Singaporeans will simply follow the herd mentality again. Until such time that the newspapers report a favourable uptake on some major project, there will not be much buyer interest. When such news is announced, everyone will stream in.

    Aside from Sing dollar appreciation and low interest rates, there are several other plus factors. The 2008 masterplan and location of Bukit Timah MRT station announcement is likely to take place quite soon (maybe as early as next month). This will spur interest in some areas. As the F1 e.t.c. projects come on stream, Singapore will also be put in the spotlight, and higher end interest will be aroused. Finally, inflation alone will result in higher construction costs, and hence higher price homes. Alternatively, developers may simply decide to `sit' on their empty plots, until either construction costs come down sufficiently (expected post 2011), or buyer interest is sufficient to make up for the higher priced units.

    Balanced against that is the sub-prime uncertainties, and also fear of further gov intervention to cool the market.

    Perhaps, a good compromise is to buy a ready made relatively new resale unit, rather than from developers. The latter is not likely to lower their asking price much, since they have shareholders to account to, and they also do not want to spook the market, especially if they already have many other projects to look at.

    All in all, a good buyers market for the next 6 months at least. After that, market likely to uptrend. Even the rather pessimistic UBS report seems to hold this view.

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    Default Re: Property market seen growing on a strong Sing dollar

    UBS got burned bad how can they talk of good times when they have to borrow heavily for their gambling and investments.

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    Default Re: Property market seen growing on a strong Sing dollar

    Quote Originally Posted by analyst101
    My own take is that Singaporeans will simply follow the herd mentality again. Until such time that the newspapers report a favourable uptake on some major project, there will not be much buyer interest. When such news is announced, everyone will stream in.
    "Herd mentality" is the mentality of the common man - the masses.

    It's not just in buying properties, likewise in their careers. They'll rush into "what's hot", and they find out (usually too late) that it's overcrowded.

    The Straits Times

    April 17, 2008

    HDB's April sale draws 5,700 applicants for 490 flats

    Take up rate is higher because the flats are ready or near completion.

    By Joyce Teo

    THE Housing Board's April sale of four-room and bigger flats closed on Wednesday with 5,700 applications for 490 flats offered.
    The board said the applications and take-up rates for the Bi-monthly sales exercises are higher because the flats offered are completed or nearing completion.
    But it noted that while demand is high in its recent sales exercises for its unsold stock, a significant number of applicants do not end up buying a flat.
    The board is currently reviewing the flat application system, following feedback that non-serious applicants are crowding out those with more pressing housing needs. National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan had disclosed this move earlier this month.
    HDB flats are now mainly sold via the build-to-order system, where projects are built only when a majority of units are booked. This means buyers have to wait about three years for the flats to be built. In the next six months from April to September, HDB plans to offer 5,000 new built-to-order (BTO) flats in towns such as Punggol, Sengkang, Woodlands and Bukit Panjang. The next two two BTO launches will be in Punggol and Sengkang at the end of this month. As HDB's unsold stock has shrunk significantly, the board has been asking buyers to plan ahead and buy under the BTO system. It advised urgent buyers to consider resale flats.

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    Default Re: Property market seen growing on a strong Sing dollar

    Quote Originally Posted by mr funny
    Canadian-based BCA Research this week issued a Buy Singapore Property Stocks report, arguing that a strong Singapore dollar will depress interest rates, which will continue to fuel the property market.
    Why is it that people think lower interest rates will fuel the property market? If we've had an extended lull period, and there is really nothing going on in the markets and there are really no other leads to follow, then I say yes, it will be a consideration. But right now, there are many other considerations to take into account which overshadow this i.e. just because interest rates are 1-2 percent lower doesnt necessarily mean its a good time to invest in properties. When times are bad, even zero interest rates cannot spur people into investing in properties. Just ask the Japanese. Likewise, when times are good, higher interest rates are no deterrent to a property boom. That the Americans will vouch for in recent years. So it's really too simple to say that just because rates are low(er), one should buy properties - rates are low for a reason & it's not a positive reason.

    The same goes for calling a buy on properties as a hedge for inflation. Are you to tell me we should then sell properties if we are in a deflationary environment? A long term buy-and-hold strategy again inflation I agree but people make it sound as though its just because the headlines in the papers are presently screaming "rising prices!!" daily, it is a good enough reason to buy at this point. In fact, once central banks reach their respective tipping points and start raising rates to combat inflation, it will be mortgage holders who will feel the inch from rising monthy installments.

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    Default Re: Property market seen growing on a strong Sing dollar

    Quote Originally Posted by Boon
    Why is it that people think lower interest rates will fuel the property market? If we've had an extended lull period, and there is really nothing going on in the markets and there are really no other leads to follow, then I say yes, it will be a consideration. But right now, there are many other considerations to take into account which overshadow this i.e. just because interest rates are 1-2 percent lower doesnt necessarily mean its a good time to invest in properties. When times are bad, even zero interest rates cannot spur people into investing in properties. Just ask the Japanese. Likewise, when times are good, higher interest rates are no deterrent to a property boom. That the Americans will vouch for in recent years. So it's really too simple to say that just because rates are low(er), one should buy properties - rates are low for a reason & it's not a positive reason.

    The same goes for calling a buy on properties as a hedge for inflation. Are you to tell me we should then sell properties if we are in a deflationary environment? A long term buy-and-hold strategy again inflation I agree but people make it sound as though its just because the headlines in the papers are presently screaming "rising prices!!" daily, it is a good enough reason to buy at this point. In fact, once central banks reach their respective tipping points and start raising rates to combat inflation, it will be mortgage holders who will feel the inch from rising monthy installments.
    If there is anyway to predict property price trends from interest rates trends, a person who knows how to do that will become an instant billionaire.

    Look at the chart below which superimposes the 3-Month Interbank Interest Rate against Property Price Index between 1988 to 2008.



    From Mar 1988 to Jun 1990 (8 Quarters), interest rates rose and property price rose (Boon wins; BCA Research loses).

    From Jun 1990 to Sep 1992 (9 Quarters), interest rates fell and property price rose (BCA Research wins; Boon loses).

    From Sep 1992 to Dec 1994 (9 Quarters), interest rates rose and property price rose (Boon wins; BCA Research loses).

    From Dec 1994 to Jun 1998 (14 Quarters), interest rate movement is inversely correlated to property price index (BCA Research wins; Boon loses).

    From Jun 1998 to Jun 2006 (32 Quarters), interest rate movement tracks the property price index (Boon wins; BCA Research loses).

    From Jun 2006 to Mar 2008 (7 Quarters), interest rate movement is inversely correlated to property price index (BCA Research wins; Boon loses).

    Final score:

    Boon wins 49 Quarters; BCA Research wins 30 Quarters.

    I declare Boon the winner.

  7. #7
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    Default Re: Property market seen growing on a strong Sing dollar

    Quote Originally Posted by jlrx
    If there is anyway to predict property price trends from interest rates trends, a person who knows how to do that will become an instant billionaire.

    Look at the chart below which superimposes the 3-Month Interbank Interest Rate against Property Price Index between 1988 to 2008.



    From Mar 1988 to Jun 1990 (8 Quarters), interest rates rose and property price rose (Boon wins; BCA Research loses).

    From Jun 1990 to Sep 1992 (9 Quarters), interest rates fell and property price rose (BCA Research wins; Boon loses).

    From Sep 1992 to Dec 1994 (9 Quarters), interest rates rose and property price rose (Boon wins; BCA Research loses).

    From Dec 1994 to Jun 1998 (14 Quarters), interest rate movement is inversely correlated to property price index (BCA Research wins; Boon loses).

    From Jun 1998 to Jun 2006 (32 Quarters), interest rate movement tracks the property price index (Boon wins; BCA Research loses).

    From Jun 2006 to Mar 2008 (7 Quarters), interest rate movement is inversely correlated to property price index (BCA Research wins; Boon loses).

    Final score:

    Boon wins 49 Quarters; BCA Research wins 30 Quarters.

    I declare Boon the winner.
    Haha..not bad..you should copyright it as JLRX Research!..I noticed you;re quite good with getting such charts together. Will you be able to provide a superimposed stock market vs property market index chart?

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    Default Re: Property market seen growing on a strong Sing dollar

    Quote Originally Posted by Boon
    Why is it that people think lower interest rates will fuel the property market? If we've had an extended lull period, and there is really nothing going on in the markets and there are really no other leads to follow, then I say yes, it will be a consideration. But right now, there are many other considerations to take into account which overshadow this i.e. just because interest rates are 1-2 percent lower doesnt necessarily mean its a good time to invest in properties. When times are bad, even zero interest rates cannot spur people into investing in properties. Just ask the Japanese. Likewise, when times are good, higher interest rates are no deterrent to a property boom. That the Americans will vouch for in recent years. So it's really too simple to say that just because rates are low(er), one should buy properties - rates are low for a reason & it's not a positive reason.

    The same goes for calling a buy on properties as a hedge for inflation. Are you to tell me we should then sell properties if we are in a deflationary environment? A long term buy-and-hold strategy again inflation I agree but people make it sound as though its just because the headlines in the papers are presently screaming "rising prices!!" daily, it is a good enough reason to buy at this point. In fact, once central banks reach their respective tipping points and start raising rates to combat inflation, it will be mortgage holders who will feel the inch from rising monthy installments.
    Are you saying BCA is wrong in saying a "growing" SGD will help the property market growth?

    Or are you changing the topic to interest rate in an attempt to challenge them?

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    Default Re: Property market seen growing on a strong Sing dollar

    Quote Originally Posted by Teana
    Are you saying BCA is wrong in saying a "growing" SGD will help the property market growth?

    Or are you changing the topic to interest rate in an attempt to challenge them?
    As BCA pointed out "a strong Singapore dollar will depress interest rates". In Singapore, monetary policy is based on the S$ policy unlike other countries whereby the central bank uses interest rates. So there is no attempt to change topic.

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    Default Re: Property market seen growing on a strong Sing dollar

    Quote Originally Posted by Boon
    As BCA pointed out "a strong Singapore dollar will depress interest rates". In Singapore, monetary policy is based on the S$ policy unlike other countries whereby the central bank uses interest rates. So there is no attempt to change topic.
    Although I personally has high regards for BCA Research, I must say Boon has made some very good points that deserved good food for thought.

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    Default Re: Property market seen growing on a strong Sing dollar

    Quote Originally Posted by Boon
    Why is it that people think lower interest rates will fuel the property market? If we've had an extended lull period, and there is really nothing going on in the markets and there are really no other leads to follow, then I say yes, it will be a consideration. But right now, there are many other considerations to take into account which overshadow this i.e. just because interest rates are 1-2 percent lower doesnt necessarily mean its a good time to invest in properties. When times are bad, even zero interest rates cannot spur people into investing in properties. Just ask the Japanese. Likewise, when times are good, higher interest rates are no deterrent to a property boom. That the Americans will vouch for in recent years. So it's really too simple to say that just because rates are low(er), one should buy properties - rates are low for a reason & it's not a positive reason.

    The same goes for calling a buy on properties as a hedge for inflation. Are you to tell me we should then sell properties if we are in a deflationary environment? A long term buy-and-hold strategy again inflation I agree but people make it sound as though its just because the headlines in the papers are presently screaming "rising prices!!" daily, it is a good enough reason to buy at this point. In fact, once central banks reach their respective tipping points and start raising rates to combat inflation, it will be mortgage holders who will feel the inch from rising monthy installments.
    This is very very real and true fact. A lower interest rate may not revive a demand in a market. A very good example is the Japanese economy which has been in a really low and slow growth for the past 14-15 years despite the many rates cuts.

    Man, how I miss the times when the Japanese economy was doing well and it seems it is highly improbable I will see that again unless some major innovation / revolution of Japan's technology/economy comes around.

    The additional point about hedging inflation is true too. You cannot go into buying and selling properties every other day as the inflation rate goes up and down every other day. A real case example here is Argentina.

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    Default Re: Property market seen growing on a strong Sing dollar

    You cannot compare the Japanese economy to that of Singapore esp over the next few years with all the plans in place,

    Every economy is different to a certain extent and if you think one solution fits all you may be in for a surprise,

    Low interest rates may or may not help the rise in property prices again but will surely reduce your interest bill and so make your yield more attractive or make one consider buying instead of renting,

    It is one of the factors that may aid in increasing property prices over time, however as pointed out, good economic sentiment and genuine demand is also necessary........

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    Default Re: Property market seen growing on a strong Sing dollar

    Quote Originally Posted by condoinvestor
    You cannot compare the Japanese economy to that of Singapore esp over the next few years with all the plans in place,

    Every economy is different to a certain extent and if you think one solution fits all you may be in for a surprise,

    Low interest rates may or may not help the rise in property prices again but will surely reduce your interest bill and so make your yield more attractive or make one consider buying instead of renting,

    It is one of the factors that may aid in increasing property prices over time, however as pointed out, good economic sentiment and genuine demand is also necessary........
    Yes, you are right. But you may have misunderstood my point,I am not comparing Singapore to Japan's economy, I merely wanted to show it as an example in that which actually happened in real life,my apologies. Anyway, Japan's economy is also a result of its own financial crisis.

    Every economy is indeed different, and I must agree with you that real demand and sentiments are equally important. For example, when housing prices rises everywhere in 2002-2004, Singapore home buyers were still sleeping and I started to buy. They only started to buy in in 2007 last year.

    Then, when they started crying market down down this year, I started to sell my properties away one by one quietly. Because the way they are crying foul is definately going to affect sentiments and eventually the real demand.These are the very same people that bought my properties I acquired during the last 2 years; or at least I believe them to be the same people. Good luck to them as they had really over done the bashing.

    Now, I am only holding one property which I stay in.

    Thanks for pointing that out.
    Last edited by blackjack21trader; 18-04-08 at 18:39.

  14. #14
    nostalgian Guest

    Default Re: Property market seen growing on a strong Sing dollar

    Quote Originally Posted by blackjack21trader
    Then, when they started crying market down down this year, I started to sell my properties away one by one quietly. Because the way they are crying foul is definately going to affect sentiments and eventually the real demand.These are the very same people that bought my properties I acquired during the last 2 years; or at least I believe them to be the same people. Good luck to them as they had really over done the bashing.

    Now, I am only holding one property which I stay in.
    Hello Blackjack,

    You must be quite a seasoned property player to have sold a number of properties within these few months.

    Just to share my experience, in the last 15 years of upgrading my residence, I've sold only 3 times. The first 2 times were not well executed, in the sense that I did not accept the the initial few good offers that came, and subsequently had to sell at a lower price a few months later when market sentiments became weaker. Received a scolding from my wife both times for being too indecisive and greedy.

    The 3rd time (in June 2007) was better executed, and I sold at a fairly good price. What I've learnt is that when it comes to selling properties, one has to strike while the iron is hot. Once the market starts cooling, it becomes emotionally harder to accept lower offers, which can lead to one holding the property for a very long period waiting for the next rebound. In fact for the 3rd property (which I bought in 1999), I missed the chance to sell it at a profit during the short rebound in 2000, and ended up holding it for an agonizing eight years until 2007.

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    Default Re: Property market seen growing on a strong Sing dollar

    Quote Originally Posted by nostalgian
    Hello Blackjack,

    You must be quite a seasoned property player to have sold a number of properties within these few months.

    Just to share my experience, in the last 15 years of upgrading my residence, I've sold only 3 times. The first 2 times were not well executed, in the sense that I did not accept the the initial few good offers that came, and subsequently had to sell at a lower price a few months later when market sentiments became weaker. Received a scolding from my wife both times for being too indecisive and greedy.

    The 3rd time (in June 2007) was better executed, and I sold at a fairly good price. What I've learnt is that when it comes to selling properties, one has to strike while the iron is hot. Once the market starts cooling, it becomes emotionally harder to accept lower offers, which can lead to one holding the property for a very long period waiting for the next rebound. In fact for the 3rd property (which I bought in 1999), I missed the chance to sell it at a profit during the short rebound in 2000, and ended up holding it for an agonizing eight years until 2007.
    Hi Nostalgian,


    The important rule to remember is that "NEVER NEVER SELL BELOW YOUR COST" otherwise "DIE DIE ALSO MUST HOLD".

    I can tell from your experience that you are still an overall winner in property investment and your adherence to the above rule is very respectable ( holding for a whole 8 years ! ).


    Thanks for sharing your valuable experience here ! And congratulations that you did the RIGHT thing
    Last edited by blackjack21trader; 18-04-08 at 19:16.

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    Default Re: Property market seen growing on a strong Sing dollar

    Quote Originally Posted by Boon
    Haha..not bad..you should copyright it as JLRX Research!..I noticed you;re quite good with getting such charts together. Will you be able to provide a superimposed stock market vs property market index chart?
    Here is the superimposed stock market (Straits Times Industrial Index STII) vs property vs interest rates chart.



    I believe you are trying to see if there is a correlation between stock price and property price. In particular, whether stock price can be used to predict property price.

    At first glance, there appears to be strong correlation. However, the correlation is only apparent on hindsight.

    Look at the plunge in stock price during the 1991 Gulf War between George Bush Senior and Saddam Hussein. At that time, nobody knew that Saddam's Army (4th largest in the world) was so useless. Everyone thought he had chemical weapons (even nuclear weapons) which he would use to wipe out the Middle East. Oil price spiked (just like today). Some people even predicted that Saddam was the legendary Anti-Christ who would end the world.

    Anyone who had panicked and sold off his properties in 1991 would have missed the super-bull run between then till 1996. Property prices had not returned to 1991 level ever since. Not even after the crash of 1997.

    Another behaviour that is apparent is that while a bull run in stock prices precedes a bull run in property (see period from 1988 to 1996; and also from 2003 to 2007), the same cannot be said for bear markets.

    Stock and property bear trends were almost synchronous. In fact, in the bear markets of 1997 to 1999; and 2001 to 2003, both stock and property prices fell in tandem. It was almost impossible to use one to predict the other.

    Of course, some people may point out that you could have "predicted" the property crash of 1996 by observing that the STII had "stabilised" for almost 2 years around 2200 points (1994 to 1996). However, the same could be said for the period between late 1991 to 1993, when the STII had "stabilised" around 1600 points. Yet the property market continued its bull trend.

    Hindsight is always perfect, as UBS had demonstrated in its real estate analysis. The challenge is, as always, to predict the future.
    Last edited by jlrx; 19-04-08 at 04:09.

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    Default Re: Property market seen growing on a strong Sing dollar

    Quote Originally Posted by jlrx
    Here is the superimposed stock market (Straits Times Industrial Index STII) vs property vs interest rates chart.



    I believe you are trying to see if there is a correlation between stock price and property price. In particular, whether stock price can be used to predict property price.

    At first glance, there appears to be strong correlation. However, the correlation is only apparent on hindsight.

    Look at the plunge in stock price during the 1991 Gulf War between George Bush Senior and Saddam Hussein. At that time, nobody knew that Saddam's Army (4th largest in the world) was so useless. Everyone thought he had chemical weapons (even nuclear weapons) which he would use to wipe out the Middle East. Oil price spiked (just like today). Some people even predicted that Saddam was the legendary Anti-Christ who would end the world.

    Anyone who had panicked and sold off his properties in 1991 would have missed the super-bull run between then till 1996. Property prices had not returned to 1991 level ever since. Not even after the crash of 1997.

    Another behaviour that is apparent is that while a bull run in stock prices precedes a bull run in property (see period from 1988 to 1996; and also from 2003 to 2007), the same cannot be said for bear markets.

    Stock and property bear trends were almost synchronous. In fact, in the bear markets of 1997 to 1999; and 2001 to 2003, both stock and property prices fell in tandem. It was almost impossible to use one to predict the other.

    Of course, some people may point out that you could have "predicted" the property crash of 1996 by observing that the STII had "stabilised" for almost 2 years around 2200 points (1994 to 1996). However, the same could be said for the period between late 1991 to 1993, when the STII had "stabilised" around 1600 points. Yet the property market continued its bull trend.

    Hindsight is always perfect, as UBS had demonstrated in its real estate analysis. The challenge is, as always, to predict the future.
    Great chart and analysis. Yes at first glance it does look as though there is a strong correlation. But I agree its very much a case-by-case basis e.g. if the property run up was fuelled by money made in the stock market; if the event driven decline was so short & sharp that the property market didnt have time to react; etc But I have to say that "visually" the chart shows an uncanningly highly correlation - and I suspect if you use moving averages to smoothen out the lines, we could see a much clearer trend. But in summary, 100% agree is that predicting what happens in the future is the key challenge.

    Tks for the chart

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