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Thread: More home buyers choosing to rent while waiting for prices to slide

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    Default More home buyers choosing to rent while waiting for prices to slide

    BY
    LEE YEN NEE
    [email protected]ISHED: 4:03 AM, SEPTEMBER 27, 2014(PAGE 1 OF 2) - NEXT PAGE | SINGLE PAGE
    SINGAPORE — When Mr K Amrit and his wife decided to upgrade from a Housing and Development Board (HDB) flat to a private home, they noticed property prices were falling and decided to sell their unit in Bedok late last year before its value dipped further.

    “We were lucky. We sold it with COV (cash-over-valuation) of S$30,000. Right after that the COVs kept going down. Then we also heard from our agent and friends that prices could fall some more, so we thought we’d take our time with the house-hunting and in the meantime, we’re renting an apartment,” the engineer, who is in his 30s, told TODAY.

    Mr Amrit has not yet found a new home, but is actively viewing potential units and visiting showrooms with his wife. The couple signed a one-year lease last December on a two-bedroom apartment in the east at about S$4,000 a month, willing to cough up that rental, confident that home values would fall enough to justify their decision.

    They are among the many prospective home buyers who are staying on the sidelines while waiting for private residential prices to ease further before entering the market, which has in turn led to an increase in home rental volumes.

    In the first eight months of this year, close to 38,000 non-landed private residential leases were signed, data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) and property firm HSR Research showed. This is higher than the 35,000 rental contracts secured in the corresponding period last year and the 34,000 two years ago.

    Cashing out on the previous home and biding their time before buying another makes sense in the current property market environment, analysts told TODAY. The arrangement allows these prospective buyers to maximise profits from the sale of their homes in a weakening market while taking advantage of the softening rents resulting from an increase in supply of completed homes.

    Prices of private homes decreased by 1 per cent in the second quarter, the third straight quarter of falling values, following the 1.3 per cent and 0.9 per cent declines in the two previous quarters, URA data showed.

    “We have noticed that many people are choosing to rent first and hoping that prices will come down later on. They sell off their properties and rent before getting their next home. We are also seeing people signing shorter leases because they are hoping for rents to come down,” said Mr Chris Koh, director of property firm Chris International.

    Even among those who have already bought new homes, many opted to sell their existing homes amid fears that prices would fall further if they delayed the sale, choosing to rent while waiting for the completion of their units, HSR research analyst Wong Shanting noted, describing a trend that has taken root in the past few years.

    However, the jump in rental volume has not translated into better income for landlords.

    Rents for private non-landed homes have declined for three straight quarters, with the URA rental index falling by 1.1 per cent over this period to a median of S$3.79 psf per month by the second quarter this year. But yields have held steady as the prices of both new and resale private homes have also fallen.

    Among the different geographical regions, Ms Wong noted that the rental market in the Core Central Region (CCR) has not held up as well as in the Rest of Central Region (RCR) and Outside Central Region (OCR).

    “Traditionally, the RCR and OCR cater to local families while the CCR generally has a higher percentage of expatriates. In the last few years, in view of less attractive employment packages offered to expats, we see these tenants increasingly moving outwards because of lower rents in those areas. This could explain the falling rental yields in CCR,” she said.

    With more than 20,000 non-landed private homes expected to be completed in each of the next two years, yields are expected to be further compressed. Vacancy rates of non-landed private homes have already been rising for five straight quarters to 8.3 per cent in the second quarter of this year.

    “What we are facing now is oversupply that’s going to put a toll on the market because tenants will be spoilt for choice. I think that the rental market will remain strong volume-wise because people can’t buy or they choose to rent first before buying, but yields will not go up,” said Mr Koh.

    http://www.todayonline.com/business/...inglepage=true

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    Don't understand, sell HDB, rent private, waiting for Durian to drop.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    Don't understand, sell HDB, rent private, waiting for Durian to drop.
    If durian falls by 30%, this group will laugh all the way to the bank. Even fall by 20% very shiok for them.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    When reading such news like below, better keep eyes wide opened!
    The below comments is same like "property prices is still 60% above 2009 lows!" !!!!!!!!!!! REALLY??????????????? Why didn't tell people OCR private properties prices are >140% above 2009 lows!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    While the guy is saying CCR rentals didn't hold up as well as OCR, my agents are telling me that they have clients with properties in places like Punggol, Sengkang etc and there is not a single enquiry after advertising for 2 months!

    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    BY
    LEE YEN NEE
    [email protected]ISHED: 4:03 AM, SEPTEMBER 27, 2014(PAGE 1 OF 2) - NEXT PAGE | SINGLE PAGE
    SINGAPORE — When Mr K Amrit and his wife decided to upgrade from a Housing and Development Board (HDB) flat to a private home, they noticed property prices were falling and decided to sell their unit in Bedok late last year before its value dipped further.

    “We were lucky. We sold it with COV (cash-over-valuation) of S$30,000. Right after that the COVs kept going down. Then we also heard from our agent and friends that prices could fall some more, so we thought we’d take our time with the house-hunting and in the meantime, we’re renting an apartment,” the engineer, who is in his 30s, told TODAY.

    Mr Amrit has not yet found a new home, but is actively viewing potential units and visiting showrooms with his wife. The couple signed a one-year lease last December on a two-bedroom apartment in the east at about S$4,000 a month, willing to cough up that rental, confident that home values would fall enough to justify their decision.

    They are among the many prospective home buyers who are staying on the sidelines while waiting for private residential prices to ease further before entering the market, which has in turn led to an increase in home rental volumes.

    In the first eight months of this year, close to 38,000 non-landed private residential leases were signed, data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) and property firm HSR Research showed. This is higher than the 35,000 rental contracts secured in the corresponding period last year and the 34,000 two years ago.

    Cashing out on the previous home and biding their time before buying another makes sense in the current property market environment, analysts told TODAY. The arrangement allows these prospective buyers to maximise profits from the sale of their homes in a weakening market while taking advantage of the softening rents resulting from an increase in supply of completed homes.

    Prices of private homes decreased by 1 per cent in the second quarter, the third straight quarter of falling values, following the 1.3 per cent and 0.9 per cent declines in the two previous quarters, URA data showed.

    “We have noticed that many people are choosing to rent first and hoping that prices will come down later on. They sell off their properties and rent before getting their next home. We are also seeing people signing shorter leases because they are hoping for rents to come down,” said Mr Chris Koh, director of property firm Chris International.

    Even among those who have already bought new homes, many opted to sell their existing homes amid fears that prices would fall further if they delayed the sale, choosing to rent while waiting for the completion of their units, HSR research analyst Wong Shanting noted, describing a trend that has taken root in the past few years.

    However, the jump in rental volume has not translated into better income for landlords.

    Rents for private non-landed homes have declined for three straight quarters, with the URA rental index falling by 1.1 per cent over this period to a median of S$3.79 psf per month by the second quarter this year. But yields have held steady as the prices of both new and resale private homes have also fallen.

    Among the different geographical regions, Ms Wong noted that the rental market in the Core Central Region (CCR) has not held up as well as in the Rest of Central Region (RCR) and Outside Central Region (OCR).

    “Traditionally, the RCR and OCR cater to local families while the CCR generally has a higher percentage of expatriates. In the last few years, in view of less attractive employment packages offered to expats, we see these tenants increasingly moving outwards because of lower rents in those areas. This could explain the falling rental yields in CCR,” she said.

    With more than 20,000 non-landed private homes expected to be completed in each of the next two years, yields are expected to be further compressed. Vacancy rates of non-landed private homes have already been rising for five straight quarters to 8.3 per cent in the second quarter of this year.

    “What we are facing now is oversupply that’s going to put a toll on the market because tenants will be spoilt for choice. I think that the rental market will remain strong volume-wise because people can’t buy or they choose to rent first before buying, but yields will not go up,” said Mr Koh.

    http://www.todayonline.com/business/...inglepage=true

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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    Don't understand, sell HDB, rent private, waiting for Durian to drop.
    these guys are not very smart. Want yield then must well go reverse mortgage their HDB. Take say $250K out from reverse mortgage at current 1.5% then park into a local Blue chip BOND that pay say 7%.

    Still have a roof over the head generating 5% yield you on the 350K without the need to rent out a room. !!!
    “Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.”
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    If durian falls by 30%, this group will laugh all the way to the bank. Even fall by 20% very shiok for them.
    Let say 2 Bedroom at Southbank drop 30% from SGD 1,570,000 = 1099000 (-471,000), do you think it is going to happen.

    SOUTHBANK NORTH BRIDGE ROAD Apartment 07 RCR 99 yrs lease commencing from 2006 1 1,565,000 958 Strata 31 to 35 1,634 Mar-14
    SOUTHBANK NORTH BRIDGE ROAD Apartment 07 RCR 99 yrs lease commencing from 2006 1 1,750,000 958 Strata 36 to 40 1,827 May-13
    SOUTHBANK NORTH BRIDGE ROAD Apartment 07 RCR 99 yrs lease commencing from 2006 1 1,570,000 958 Strata 16 to 20 1,639 Mar-13

    Oct 2009 Caveat:
    Stack 9 (614 sq ft) Low Floor: $1235psf.

    758290 - 1000000 = 241,710

    http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showth...358211&page=61
    Last edited by Arcachon; 30-09-14 at 02:47.

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    The caveat in Sept shows that units at stack 9 fetch a higher price ($psf) based on the height of the units.

    #29-06 $1236 592 $732k 10 Sep 09
    #11-09 $1224 614 $751k 07 Sep 09
    #18-09 $1222 614 $750k 03 Sep 09

    I believe that the owner at stack 6 is trying to sell before TOP due to the adverse orientation of the unit.

    http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showth...358211&page=59

    It involved the sale of a 34th level unit at Southbank, located at North Bridge Road, for $1.64 million ($1,250 per square foot). The transaction last month is nearly double the $807,600 or $615 psf that the developer sold the unit for in July 2006.

    http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showth...358211&page=58

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    If durian falls by 30%, this group will laugh all the way to the bank. Even fall by 20% very shiok for them.
    Assume ppty price drop 5% every year based on the initial ppty price... it wont be much saving as the yearly installment should also reduce your Yearly outstanding amount to the bank.

    Based on ppty price 1.5m
    Yearly ppty price drop 5%
    takes 6yrs to drop 30%

    Saving is only $25k. (take into consideration of Rental exp offset by reduction of O/S loan)
    Risk if the price stabalise or do not hit your target...every month rental will eat up the saving.

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    Quote Originally Posted by joelx View Post
    Assume ppty price drop 5% every year based on the initial ppty price... it wont be much saving as the yearly installment should also reduce your Yearly outstanding amount to the bank.

    Based on ppty price 1.5m
    Yearly ppty price drop 5%
    takes 6yrs to drop 30%

    Saving is only $25k. (take into consideration of Rental exp offset by reduction of O/S loan)
    Risk if the price stabalise or do not hit your target...every month rental will eat up the saving.
    What if the owner fully paid home take a reverse mortgage and free up say 400K in cash. Rent out his unit and put the 400K in a bond paying 6-7%. Wont that be the ideal case?

    Assumption
    Appt fully paid n can reverse mortgage n get say 250K-400K
    Loan taken at 1.5%
    Bond paying 6-7%
    Rental at 3K for 2 bedder.

    Yield from rental 3-4%
    Bond Yield 6%
    Cost of money i.e. loan 1.5%

    still a good ~6% a year on the 400K.. Thats ~24K a year about $2K income month minus all the overheads.

    I think thats not too bad.
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    Default Dangerous game

    If this is the only property He have than He is playing dangerous game. Should not do this kind of game for first property

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sandiwara View Post
    If this is the only property He have than He is playing dangerous game. Should not do this kind of game for first property
    Well many are caught with this wait for crash mindset. I have friends been renting since the big crash still waiting for the next crash. N they are very angry why there is no crash.

    In say it's self inflicted. Who's to blame.
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    Never sell the roof over your head.

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    Never play wait for price to fall game with your only home... ha ha most likely u will lose the game : )

    Anyway his is HDB cannot reverse mortgage la, or im I wrong?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Allthepies View Post
    Never play wait for price to fall game with your only home... ha ha most likely u will lose the game : )

    Anyway his is HDB cannot reverse mortgage la, or im I wrong?
    HDB cannot remortgage lar.. asked before already.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    Never sell the roof over your head.
    Agree strongly with you on this.

    Was just trying to explain some people's views - doesn't mean I agree with them.

    I have a colleague who sold off only property in 2008. Now trying to buy condo. Price is almost double from then. For the time being just wait. No 20% drop no buy.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    Agree strongly with you on this.

    Was just trying to explain some people's views - doesn't mean I agree with them.

    I have a colleague who sold off only property in 2008. Now trying to buy condo. Price is almost double from then. For the time being just wait. No 20% drop no buy.
    Property is meant for buying, ....not for selling..imagine Singapore is only so big . Like a little dot, and people are so rich, how much can the price fall! if they lose some money, they also won't sell to u, if not why the garment ask Singaporeans to keep hdb and rent out,..... If can dua Lo, why they not scared the people angry meh...

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    Quote Originally Posted by henryhk View Post
    Property is meant for buying, ....not for selling..imagine Singapore is only so big . Like a little dot, and people are so rich, how much can the price fall! if they lose some money, they also won't sell to u, if not why the garment ask Singaporeans to keep hdb and rent out,..... If can dua Lo, why they not scared the people angry meh...
    We can only say this right now because:

    1. Population is still increasing even though its a slower increase.

    2. Govt changed focus for homes to become more asset-like in nature.

    3. Interest rates have been historically low for the last half dozen years.

    Several other factors... But the factors will not stay forever. Govt may change one day, or the focus might change (perhaps is already changing), rates will change and its a matter of time. Its a very dynamic situation.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    We can only say this right now because:

    1. Population is still increasing even though its a slower increase.

    2. Govt changed focus for homes to become more asset-like in nature.

    3. Interest rates have been historically low for the last half dozen years.

    Several other factors... But the factors will not stay forever. Govt may change one day, or the focus might change (perhaps is already changing), rates will change and its a matter of time. Its a very dynamic situation.
    Over the long term, inflation will win. It really depends if one looks at short term or long term.....

    If interest rate is high, say deposit is 4%, account for time value of money over 10 years and u will get a shock....

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_value_of_money

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    Quote Originally Posted by henryhk View Post
    Property is meant for buying, ....not for selling..imagine Singapore is only so big . Like a little dot, and people are so rich, how much can the price fall! if they lose some money, they also won't sell to u, if not why the garment ask Singaporeans to keep hdb and rent out,..... If can dua Lo, why they not scared the people angry meh...
    Well there are a group of people KPKB that home should be utility. not a assets. So it should be zero value.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    We can only say this right now because:

    1. Population is still increasing even though its a slower increase.

    2. Govt changed focus for homes to become more asset-like in nature.

    3. Interest rates have been historically low for the last half dozen years.

    Several other factors... But the factors will not stay forever. Govt may change one day, or the focus might change (perhaps is already changing), rates will change and its a matter of time. Its a very dynamic situation.
    There will always be challenges n uncertainty. But one certainty if one sit on his hands n do nothing and leave the $ in bank. For sure lost.
    “Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.”
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    Quote Originally Posted by minority View Post
    There will always be challenges n uncertainty. But one certainty if one sit on his hands n do nothing and leave the $ in bank. For sure lost.
    That's why the Govt put in TDSR. Because if one takes up the challenge and is wiling to stomach and shoulder the risks, then he/she better makes sure that he can sustain through thick and thin. By all means take the risk, but only within capabilities and means.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Quote Originally Posted by minority View Post
    Well there are a group of people KPKB that home should be utility. not a assets. So it should be zero value.
    Ever visit a ghost Town before, if yes than you will understand not all property is an asset.

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    The Fed has already opened their mouth: Their "new norm" is 3.5% !

    And what is their "old norm"? 5.5% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    So, expect Singapore mortgage to trend to new norm just like Fed rate..........................

    Rate must be low to encourage risk-taking, else everybody put money in bank, sit at home and shake leg and collect interest can already, ZERO risk !!!

    By forcing rate low, you all must put your money into risky assets / investments / business ventures or RISK seeing you CASH evaporates into air due to inflation (higher than interest rate)!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    We can only say this right now because:

    1. Population is still increasing even though its a slower increase.

    2. Govt changed focus for homes to become more asset-like in nature.

    3. Interest rates have been historically low for the last half dozen years.

    Several other factors... But the factors will not stay forever. Govt may change one day, or the focus might change (perhaps is already changing), rates will change and its a matter of time. Its a very dynamic situation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    Ever visit a ghost Town before, if yes than you will understand not all property is an asset.
    Yeah thats why the assets value are determined by the environment and support infra that the property is build in. If not there will be no different having a property in JB and in Singapore for example.
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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    The Fed has already opened their mouth: Their "new norm" is 3.5% !

    And what is their "old norm"? 5.5% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    So, expect Singapore mortgage to trend to new norm just like Fed rate..........................

    Rate must be low to encourage risk-taking, else everybody put money in bank, sit at home and shake leg and collect interest can already, ZERO risk !!!

    By forcing rate low, you all must put your money into risky assets / investments / business ventures or RISK seeing you CASH evaporates into air due to inflation (higher than interest rate)!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    I am not that old, but old enough to sense and know that most of the times when we are told things "must" happen in a certain way, it is time for the phrase caveat emptor.

    Nothing is fixed in this time we live in, the game changes every few years.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    Ever visit a ghost Town before, if yes than you will understand not all property is an asset.
    The game can change quite quickly and swop assets to ghost towns if we are not careful.

    http://www.fastcompany.com/3029950/t...kushima-nuclea

    Before you conclude that this will never happen here, SG did consider nuclear plans but quickly moved it aside when this happened in Fukushima.

    Before 2011, Japan also never considered the possibility of the nuclear plants being flooded because they built all kinds of safety buffers. But it still happened because the disaster escaped human imagination.

    I am not a doomsayer. I believe we have a good game plan in SG. But plan for the best and be prepared for the worst.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Game changes but the below are facts that will never change:

    "Rate must be low to encourage risk-taking..."
    - This is a fact. When govt want to encourage risk-taking, they will always reduce rates and keep rates low, like what Fed is doing now.

    "By forcing rate low, you all must put your money into risky assets / investments / business ventures or RISK seeing you CASH evaporates into air due to inflation (higher than interest rate)!! "
    - This is another fact, because when rate is low (like now), and inflation high (like now), the only way to prevent your CASH depreciate in REAL value is to invest into risky assets / investments to earn higher return to beat inflation...

    Only thing that is not fact - Will they keep the rate low?

    According to Fed, they say they will, and they can unilaterally decide the Fed rate, so we just have to take it because whether you like it or not, if Fed want to keep Fed rate low, they have the authority and power to keep Fed rate low...

    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    I am not that old, but old enough to sense and know that most of the times when we are told things "must" happen in a certain way, it is time for the phrase caveat emptor.

    Nothing is fixed in this time we live in, the game changes every few years.
    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    The Fed has already opened their mouth: Their "new norm" is 3.5% !

    And what is their "old norm"? 5.5% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    So, expect Singapore mortgage to trend to new norm just like Fed rate..........................

    Rate must be low to encourage risk-taking, else everybody put money in bank, sit at home and shake leg and collect interest can already, ZERO risk !!!

    By forcing rate low, you all must put your money into risky assets / investments / business ventures or RISK seeing you CASH evaporates into air due to inflation (higher than interest rate)!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    The game can change quite quickly and swop assets to ghost towns if we are not careful.

    http://www.fastcompany.com/3029950/t...kushima-nuclea

    Before you conclude that this will never happen here, SG did consider nuclear plans but quickly moved it aside when this happened in Fukushima.

    Before 2011, Japan also never considered the possibility of the nuclear plants being flooded because they built all kinds of safety buffers. But it still happened because the disaster escaped human imagination.

    I am not a doomsayer. I believe we have a good game plan in SG. But plan for the best and be prepared for the worst.
    We already have nuclear plant, just visit the Changi Naval Base and take a look at the US aircraft carrier and ask "Is this nuclear power" or maybe ask the US when is the last time their Nuclear Sub pass by.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Abr...ncoln_(CVN-72)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operati...ied_Assistance

    Propulsion: 2 × Westinghouse A4W nuclear reactors
    4 × steam turbines
    4 × shafts
    260,000 shp (194 MW)
    Last edited by Arcachon; 01-10-14 at 16:54.

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    By reporter2 in forum Singapore Private Condominium Property Discussion and News
    Replies: 1
    -: 03-04-14, 18:22
  4. S'pore home prices slide down the ladder
    By sabian in forum Singapore Private Condominium Property Discussion and News
    Replies: 1
    -: 31-05-09, 14:42
  5. Q2 investment sales of properties slide, but money waiting in the wings
    By mr funny in forum En Bloc Discussion and News
    Replies: 0
    -: 26-06-08, 10:06

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