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Thread: Home leases stagnant for 2 years, still looking soft

  1. #1
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    Default Home leases stagnant for 2 years, still looking soft

    Published April 8, 2008

    Home leases stagnant for 2 years, still looking soft

    Foreigners could be switching from leasing to buying property, says Savills Singapore

    By ARTHUR SIM


    (SINGAPORE) Residential leasing transactions have stagnated in the past two years after falling from a recent high of 33,874 in 2005.

    According to an analysis of Urban Redevelopment Authority data by Savills Singapore, transactions were about 15 per cent lower at 28,928 in 2006 and 28,893 in 2007, versus 2005.

    Savills Singapore director of marketing and business development Ku Swee Yong said that as leases are generally renewed on a two-year basis, the drop between 2005 and 2006 should imply a rise in 2008.

    But figures for the first two months of this year indicate that residential leasing is not likely to pick up. Indeed, Savills' analysis reveals only 3,495 transactions.

    The lowest number of quarterly transactions since the start of 2000 was 4,024 in Q1 2003, while the high of 9,917 was recorded in Q3 2005.

    Mr Ku, who reckons foreigners make up about 90 per cent of the leasing market here, said it will be important to watch the figures over the next few quarters.

    He thinks fewer financial-sector expatriates may relocate here due to the global credit crunch.

    But according to some foreign business associations, there has been no let-up in the influx of expatriates so far.

    American Chamber of Commerce executive director Dom LaVigne said: 'Due to the strong business conditions in Singapore and based on what we've heard from our members hiring more employees, we think that the number of American expats living here will continue to rise in the coming years. Two years ago, there were 14,000 Americans in Singapore. Today there are 15,000 Americans and more than 3,000 US businesses here.'

    The number of British expatriates here has also increased over the past two years, with the British Chamber of Commerce (BCC) saying about 20,000 British nationals now live in Singapore.

    BCC spokesman Roman Scott, who is also managing director of the Calamander Group, said: 'Although everyone is moaning (about rents), it's mourning the end of a particularly good deal, not complaining that the recent sharp rises are unfair.'

    BCC, which tracks the cost of housing and offices, believes the rise in rents is a function of market forces and a 'long-overdue cyclical correction from artificial lows'.

    Pointing out that rents fell sharply 10 years ago, Mr Scott said: 'Given that real wages and wealth have actually risen in those 10 years in Singapore, this means rents are still cheaper in real terms than the previous high 10 years back, and affordable compared with other global cities, particularly Hong Kong and Tokyo.'

    Rents, however, have been increasing rapidly. Based on Savills' basket of properties, rents for high-end homes increased about 30 per cent year on year in Q4 2007. Savills noted that a 2,885-sq-ft unit at Ardmore Park was recently leased for $20,000 a month or about $7 per square foot (psf) a month.

    For high-end properties, Savills says the quarterly average rent is now $6.68 psf a month.

    January saw a particularly low number of new leases, with just 1,474 transactions. District 10, the most popular district, suffered a 42.2 per cent drop to 203 transactions, compared with 351 a year earlier.

    Other districts in the top five, including districts 15, 9, 14 and 16, saw transactions fall 39.2, 50, 19.8 and 43.2 per cent respectively.

    A shrinking pool of leasing properties due to collective sales could have exacerbated the drop in numbers, especially in the prime districts. But as Savills' Mr Ku points out, demand should have spilled over into other districts, keeping the overall number of transactions up.

    He believes foreigners could be simply switching from leasing to buying property.

    'This was helped by the attractive low cost of mortgages in Singapore and also the favourable tax advantages foreigners from certain countries enjoy from owning properties in Singapore,' he said. 'We certainly saw many tenants convert from leasing to owning in 2006-2007, starting with a change in US Federal Tax on US nationals' housing benefits overseas.'

    A separate analysis of property data by Chesterton International seems to support this assertion.

    Comparing data from 1995 - during the run-up to previous property market peak - and 2007, Chesterton's head of research and consultancy Colin Tan notes that while the percentage of foreigners, including permanent residents (PRs), buying non-landed private property increased from 17.9 per cent in 1995 to 29 per cent in 2007, the percentage of acquisitions by PRs alone doubled from 6.7 per cent to 14.4 per cent.

    The relevance of this, according to Mr Tan, is that PRs tend to buy for owner-occupation while foreigners are more likely to buy for investment.

    He said: 'In recent years we have seen many purchases by Indian and Chinese nationals who are buying for owner-occupation, not investment. These people eventually become citizens. I personally know a number of them.'



  2. #2
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Home leases stagnant for 2 years, still looking soft

    HAH! did you see the bar chart for Jan 2008.

    can someone calculate for me how many % it drooped??

  3. #3
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Home leases stagnant for 2 years, still looking soft

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    HAH! did you see the bar chart for Jan 2008.

    can someone calculate for me how many % it drooped??

    I think you got tricked by this writer calling himself Arthur Sim.

    At first reading, I almost wanted to rebut him -- what nonsense are your talking? But on second thought, I saw through his April fool joke.

    What he is saying is that transactions have dropped from a high in 2005, but what the reader is likely to infer is that RENTS HAVE DROPPED FROM A HIGH IN 2005!

    And he deliberately creates this misleading perception with another misleading phrase "still looking soft" so that the reader would continue to think that the rentals are stagnant and "still soft" rather than the physical supply of units.

    The truth is that there was excess supply in 2005 and with the depressed rates, there were more take ups leading to more TRANSACTIONS, but at MUCH, MUCH LOWER RENTAL!

    Now the supply has dried up and rental has more than doubled, obviously the lease transactions have slowed down considerably.

    What is this guy up to??????

    But Savills is correct. As the result of a doubling, and in some cases, tripled, increases in rental, foreigners are switching to buying than leasing, partly because there are more sellers than landlords.

  4. #4
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Home leases stagnant for 2 years, still looking soft

    How can you say people are switching from renting to buying when you look at the caveat that the sales on Jan and Feb 2008 are soooo LOW.

    If people are switching to buying, Jan and feb 2008 caveats show more sales than jan and feb 2007 caveat. BUT it didnt.

    Thus, this shows rental are low as bar chart indicated and sales are also low as number of transcations seen on URA caveat.

  5. #5
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Home leases stagnant for 2 years, still looking soft

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    How can you say people are switching from renting to buying when you look at the caveat that the sales on Jan and Feb 2008 are soooo LOW.

    If people are switching to buying, Jan and feb 2008 caveats show more sales than jan and feb 2007 caveat. BUT it didnt.

    Thus, this shows rental are low as bar chart indicated and sales are also low as number of transcations seen on URA caveat.
    Which only means that they are leaving if no increase in rental transactions or home sales.

  6. #6
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Home leases stagnant for 2 years, still looking soft

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    I think you got tricked by this writer calling himself Arthur Sim.

    At first reading, I almost wanted to rebut him -- what nonsense are your talking? But on second thought, I saw through his April fool joke.

    What he is saying is that transactions have dropped from a high in 2005, but what the reader is likely to infer is that RENTS HAVE DROPPED FROM A HIGH IN 2005!

    And he deliberately creates this misleading perception with another misleading phrase "still looking soft" so that the reader would continue to think that the rentals are stagnant and "still soft" rather than the physical supply of units.

    The truth is that there was excess supply in 2005 and with the depressed rates, there were more take ups leading to more TRANSACTIONS, but at MUCH, MUCH LOWER RENTAL!

    Now the supply has dried up and rental has more than doubled, obviously the lease transactions have slowed down considerably.

    What is this guy up to??????

    But Savills is correct. As the result of a doubling, and in some cases, tripled, increases in rental, foreigners are switching to buying than leasing, partly because there are more sellers than landlords.
    WHERE IS THE INCREASE IN HOME SALES BUDDY?....UNLESS THEY ARE BUYING IN VIETNAM.

  7. #7
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Home leases stagnant for 2 years, still looking soft

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    HAH! did you see the bar chart for Jan 2008.

    can someone calculate for me how many % it drooped??
    OMG SUCH A BIG DROP?

  8. #8
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Home leases stagnant for 2 years, still looking soft

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    January saw a particularly low number of new leases, with just 1,474 transactions. District 10, the most popular district, suffered a 42.2 per cent drop to 203 transactions, compared with 351 a year earlier.

    Other districts in the top five, including districts 15, 9, 14 and 16, saw transactions fall 39.2, 50, 19.8 and 43.2 per cent respectively.
    42.2% drop in District 10? Are they all moving to Jurong? But then other districts also show massive drops....

  9. #9
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Home leases stagnant for 2 years, still looking soft

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Which only means that they are leaving if no increase in rental transactions or home sales.
    Noticed some had moved to HDB in the new towns for cheaper rental.

  10. #10
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Home leases stagnant for 2 years, still looking soft

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    How can you say people are switching from renting to buying when you look at the caveat that the sales on Jan and Feb 2008 are soooo LOW.

    If people are switching to buying, Jan and feb 2008 caveats show more sales than jan and feb 2007 caveat. BUT it didnt.

    Thus, this shows rental are low as bar chart indicated and sales are also low as number of transcations seen on URA caveat.
    They bought a few months earlier, my fren. It is not like shares where U get it in few days. For houses, there is such thing call "completion period". So, if they hold off the purchases now and chose to rent, as long as the number of PR and foreigners keep coming here increasing (more are coming here), this will support the rental market.

  11. #11
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Home leases stagnant for 2 years, still looking soft

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    They bought a few months earlier, my fren. It is not like shares where U get it in few days. For houses, there is such thing call "completion period". So, if they hold off the purchases now and chose to rent, as long as the number of PR and foreigners keep coming here increasing (more are coming here), this will support the rental market.
    Rents will fall soon. With a 42% drop in transactions landlords would be chasing fewer customers. Landlord's will be out touting for customers soon.

  12. #12
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Home leases stagnant for 2 years, still looking soft

    Rents have indeed softened. Last year this time, a 3+1, 1200-1300 sq ft unit gets almost $8k, now at $6k also no takers. Smart are owners who grab whatever they could now, instead of stubbornly waiting for someone to offer them their price.

    Outskirts, last year 3.5k for a lousy empty unit, now 3.5k fully furnished also no takers. Owners can dream on if they think they can rent out their dilapidated apartments without renovation or touching up. They can wait until next year this time, and probably still waiting.

  13. #13
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Home leases stagnant for 2 years, still looking soft

    Also read about increasing number of disputes between owners and tenants of HDB apartments in the Lianhe Zaobao on Sunday. Ah Soh/Ah Chek owners vs poor foreign workers/students. Unelightened owners and no money to pay tenants.

    Soon will see break lease private apartment tenants. Those who have signed sky high rentals will go look for cheaper apartments when rentals drop.

  14. #14
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Home leases stagnant for 2 years, still looking soft

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Rents have indeed softened. Last year this time, a 3+1, 1200-1300 sq ft unit gets almost $8k, now at $6k also no takers. Smart are owners who grab whatever they could now, instead of stubbornly waiting for someone to offer them their price.

    Outskirts, last year 3.5k for a lousy empty unit, now 3.5k fully furnished also no takers. Owners can dream on if they think they can rent out their dilapidated apartments without renovation or touching up. They can wait until next year this time, and probably still waiting.
    You are wrong, who say cannot rent out. The mosquitoes, cockroaches, rats and spiders need a place to stay. Please do not deprive them.

  15. #15
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Home leases stagnant for 2 years, still looking soft

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Rents have indeed softened. Last year this time, a 3+1, 1200-1300 sq ft unit gets almost $8k, now at $6k also no takers. Smart are owners who grab whatever they could now, instead of stubbornly waiting for someone to offer them their price.

    Outskirts, last year 3.5k for a lousy empty unit, now 3.5k fully furnished also no takers. Owners can dream on if they think they can rent out their dilapidated apartments without renovation or touching up. They can wait until next year this time, and probably still waiting.
    Where to get tenants these days? Many of my expats friend had already bought their own properties early last year. Situations will get worse from here when massive number of units obtain TOP from 2010 onwards.

  16. #16
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Home leases stagnant for 2 years, still looking soft

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Where to get tenants these days? Many of my expats friend had already bought their own properties early last year. Situations will get worse from here when massive number of units obtain TOP from 2010 onwards.
    Yes greedy owners will be left licking their wounds.

  17. #17
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Home leases stagnant for 2 years, still looking soft

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    You are wrong, who say cannot rent out. The mosquitoes, cockroaches, rats and spiders need a place to stay. Please do not deprive them.
    Lizards too..

  18. #18
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Home leases stagnant for 2 years, still looking soft

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Where to get tenants these days? Many of my expats friend had already bought their own properties early last year. Situations will get worse from here when massive number of units obtain TOP from 2010 onwards.
    wah all tenants already bought units early 2007 ah?Thats means nobody buy liao this yr and those poor tenant rent hdb instead.
    I rush for exit NOW before it get even worst.

  19. #19
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Home leases stagnant for 2 years, still looking soft

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Where to get tenants these days? Many of my expats friend had already bought their own properties early last year. Situations will get worse from here when massive number of units obtain TOP from 2010 onwards.
    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    wah all tenants already bought units early 2007 ah?Thats means nobody buy liao this yr and those poor tenant rent hdb instead.
    I rush for exit NOW before it get even worst.
    Strange.

    Sour grapes are the lowest class people in society and too poor to buy any private property.

    How come got "many expats friend"?

    How come can "rush for exit NOW"?

  20. #20
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Home leases stagnant for 2 years, still looking soft

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Strange.

    Sour grapes are the lowest class people in society and too poor to buy any private property.

    How come got "many expats friend"?

    How come can "rush for exit NOW"?
    "expats friend" = illegal Myanmar workers

    "rush for exit NOW" = because police is coming

  21. #21
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Home leases stagnant for 2 years, still looking soft

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Strange.

    Sour grapes are the lowest class people in society and too poor to buy any private property.

    How come got "many expats friend"?

    How come can "rush for exit NOW"?
    Poor fried speculator...more a dreamer.

  22. #22
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Home leases stagnant for 2 years, still looking soft

    Quote Originally Posted by mr funny
    Published April 8, 2008

    Home leases stagnant for 2 years, still looking soft

    Foreigners could be switching from leasing to buying property, says Savills Singapore

    Savills Singapore director of marketing and business development Ku Swee Yong thinks fewer financial-sector expatriates may relocate here due to the global credit crunch.

    But according to some foreign business associations, there has been no let-up in the influx of expatriates so far.

    American Chamber of Commerce executive director Dom LaVigne said: 'Due to the strong business conditions in Singapore and based on what we've heard from our members hiring more employees, we think that the number of American expats living here will continue to rise in the coming years. Two years ago, there were 14,000 Americans in Singapore. Today there are 15,000 Americans and more than 3,000 US businesses here.'

    The number of British expatriates here has also increased over the past two years, with the British Chamber of Commerce (BCC) saying about 20,000 British nationals now live in Singapore.

    Pointing out that rents fell sharply 10 years ago, BCC spokesman Roman Scott said: 'Given that real wages and wealth have actually risen in those 10 years in Singapore, this means rents are still cheaper in real terms than the previous high 10 years back, and affordable compared with other global cities, particularly Hong Kong and Tokyo.'

    Rents, however, have been increasing rapidly. Based on Savills' basket of properties, rents for high-end homes increased about 30 per cent year on year in Q4 2007. Savills noted that a 2,885-sq-ft unit at Ardmore Park was recently leased for $20,000 a month or about $7 per square foot (psf) a month. For high-end properties, Savills says the quarterly average rent is now $6.68 psf a month.

    January saw a particularly low number of new leases, with just 1,474 transactions. District 10, the most popular district, suffered a 42.2 per cent drop to 203 transactions, compared with 351 a year earlier.

    A shrinking pool of leasing properties due to collective sales could have exacerbated the drop in numbers, especially in the prime districts.

    But as Savills' Mr Ku points out, demand should have spilled over into other districts, keeping the overall number of transactions up. He believes foreigners could be simply switching from leasing to buying property.


    I am totally perplexed by this baseless analysis.
    Which rational person will use this one chart to form a conclusion that foreigners are switching from leasing to buying? The chart simply tells that there were fewer leases. Reason could be because there’s less supply due to the en bloc fever in the last 2 years. The increase in lease price tend to support this simple econs101 theory.

  23. #23
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Home leases stagnant for 2 years, still looking soft

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    I am totally perplexed by this baseless analysis.
    Which rational person will use this one chart to form a conclusion that foreigners are switching from leasing to buying? The chart simply tells that there were fewer leases. Reason could be because there’s less supply due to the en bloc fever in the last 2 years. The increase in lease price tend to support this simple econs101 theory.
    Dont be perplexed. Its all coming down. Wait for the next analysis on rentals.

  24. #24
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Home leases stagnant for 2 years, still looking soft

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    I am totally perplexed by this baseless analysis.
    Which rational person will use this one chart to form a conclusion that foreigners are switching from leasing to buying? The chart simply tells that there were fewer leases. Reason could be because there’s less supply due to the en bloc fever in the last 2 years. The increase in lease price tend to support this simple econs101 theory.
    ....and by the way enbloc is dead and buried.

  25. #25
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Home leases stagnant for 2 years, still looking soft

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    April 8, 2008

    Fewer home loans taken up as property market cools further

    By Grace Ng, Finance Correspondent


    THE number of home loans taken up has fallen sharply in recent months as the property market continues to contract.

    Only 4,200 new home loans were approved in January, up about 13 per cent on the 3,722 in December but down 21 per cent from the peak of 5,319 last August.

    The Credit Bureau of Singapore figures also show that 2,544 second mortgages were taken up in January, a 31 per cent drop from the high of 3,698, also last August.

    'We expect the growth in new mortgages to slow further this year,' said Credit Bureau general manager Mark Rowley.

    Inquiries for new home loans have also dropped, down to 8,923 in February, the lowest since April 2006.

    Mr Gregory Chan, OCBC Bank's head of consumer secured lending, said: 'We have observed that property buyers are becoming more cautious in their purchase decisions.'

    United Overseas Bank's (UOB's) head of loans, Mr Kevin Lam, said that 'in line with property sales transactions, our loan applications were slower in January and February' but there was 'a pick-up in market activity at the end of March'.

    His counterpart at HSBC Singapore, Ms Alice Chia, said the bank has 'seen a reduction in applications for new home loans, which is reflective of sentiment towards the property market'.
    THERE GOES THE PROPERTY MARKET....ILL, DEAD AND BURIED. REST IN PEACE.

  26. #26
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Home leases stagnant for 2 years, still looking soft

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    The property market still very healthy wat ...

    Got 4,200 home loans approved in January, only 21% below the "peak of 5,319 last August".

    Unlike what the sour grapes here kept saying "No Buyers".

    Furthermore, there is a 'a pick-up in market activity at the end of March'.

    Looks like the property market will bury the sour grapes yet again.
    HEALTHY HEALTHY HEALTHY
    SCREAMS THE NOT SO WEALTHY
    SAYS CRASHED BY 21% ONLY
    SOMETIMES THE MORONS ARE VERY FUNNY
    THE WISE SAY NO BUYERS ALREADY
    AND MARKET GOING DOWN UNDER VERILY
    SITUATION BY THE DAY GETTING MORE DEADLY
    FINALLY...MORONS WILL DIE SCREAMING HEALTHY HEALTHY HEALTHY
    BECAUSE UNITS OUT THERE WITH NO BUYERS IN PLENTY!!!

  27. #27
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Home leases stagnant for 2 years, still looking soft

    April 9, 2008

    Prices of high-end condos starting to fall as sales dwindle
    Downward trend may continue for next few quarters, experts predict
    By Fiona Chan, Property Reporter

    HOME prices are starting to fall, as several high-end properties begin to feel the squeeze of retreating buyers.
    Sales of Singapore's most expensive condominiums - all the rage last year - have dwindled to just a trickle this year.

    And with plunging sales, prices have also started to dip, although official figures have yet to reflect this trend.

    Early signs of the slide lie in the handful of caveats filed involving many luxury projects in the first quarter. These showed prices fell from the previous quarter, in some cases by up to 20 per cent.

    In Districts 9 to 11, Singapore's creme de la creme of residential locations covering Orchard, Holland and Bukit Timah, average prices have fallen by about 30 per cent since the beginning of the year, according to caveats.

    They dropped to an average of $1,564 per sq ft (psf) between January and March from $2,023 psf in the preceding three months.

    FEELING THE SQUEEZE
    In luxury island enclave Sentosa Cove, almost all condos posted drops in average psf prices, ranging from 2 per cent for the Marina Collection to 23 per cent for The Azure.

    Property experts say this could be because luxury home buyers are now selecting only the most competitively priced properties.

    'Market activity is very slow now, so any transactions that do take place are likely to be from people who have found attractive buys,' said Mrs Ong Choon Fah, the executive director at property firm DTZ Debenham Tie Leung.

    She said high-end properties in the traditional prime districts were more dependent on investor buying, so they could be more affected by the current global credit crunch and weaker sentiment.

    'A lot of people who bought luxury homes are also 'specuvestors', so they may be happy making just a small profit and selling quickly,' Mrs Ong explained.

    The Government estimated last week that private home prices continued to climb in the first three months of the year, albeit at a slower pace. They rose 4.2 per cent, down from 6.8 per cent in the previous three months.

    In the priciest segment, the core central region, the price gain dropped to 4.4 per cent from 7.5 per cent in the previous quarter. This region covers Districts 9 to 11, the Marina Bay area and Sentosa.

    Anecdotal evidence from property insiders and caveats lodged, however, showed that prices at many projects fell rather than rose this year. At Scotts Square in Scotts Road, only two units have been sold so far this year - at an average price of $3,700 psf, down from $4,000 psf for 42 units in last year's fourth quarter.

    Similarly, at The Oceanfront @ Sentosa Cove, the most recent deals were in February, where three units were sold at $1,720 to $1,751 psf. Just six months before that, 15 units were sold at an average price of $2,480 psf.

    Other high-profile, pricey condos, such as the Marina Bay Residences and The Marq on Paterson Hill, have yet to see a single caveat lodged this year.

    But the story is not all bad. The Orchard Residences, which holds the title of Singapore's most expensive condo, has sold only one unit this year - but at $4,700 psf, higher than most of its other sales.

    Other older condos in areas such as Cavenagh or Balmoral may also be trading at higher prices from their previously low base, pushing up the overall prices for the whole district, suggested Mr Ku Swee Yong, director of marketing and business development at Savills Singapore.

    But he said the price index for high-end homes may be under pressure in the next two quarters, now that 'everyone wants a bargain'.

    'You only need developers to start giving discounts or people starting to buy lower-

    floor units instead of penthouses. That will push the index down and put pressure on prices.'

  28. #28
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Home leases stagnant for 2 years, still looking soft

    NO SIGN OF THE SPECULATORS.....THEY ARE FINISHED!!! MAD RUSH AT THE EXITS....OTHERS PLEASE AVOID THE EXITS....SPECULATORS FLEEING...WATCH OUT FOR YOUR OWN SAFETY.

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