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Thread: Analysts say private home sales have peaked

  1. #1
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    Default Analysts say private home sales have peaked

    Analysts say private home sales have peaked

    By Ng Baoying, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 07 April 2008 2347 hrs


    SINGAPORE: Sales of private properties have been sliding amid a standoff between buyers and sellers, say market watchers.

    In February, sales for new launches were only one tenth of the record numbers seen in August last year.

    Analysts also say that residential property prices may have finally peaked, although the fundamentals still support long-term growth.

    URA's latest flash estimates showed private home prices rose 4.2 percent in the first quarter this year, much slower than the 6.8 percent pace in the last quarter of 2007.

    Last year, property launches drew a crowd despite the extravagant price tags. But now, the market is paying for it in more ways than one. Prices are coming off their highs, leaving some buyers with significant losses.

    Chesterton's head of research & consultancy, Colin Tan, said: "What has happened over 2007 is that prices have risen quite rapidly....Part of the reason prices have gone up (is) because people are valuing properties not for the moment but maybe 2, 3 years down the road. In that sense, prices have raced ahead of fundamentals."

    Seen in that light, a correction was perhaps waiting to happen. Right now, few are willing to pay a premium for homes, and fewer still are willing to sell for less.

    Chesterton's Colin Tan said: "There's a standoff between buyers and sellers. The question now is, of course, (for) how long can the sellers hang on. It all depends on the economy. If things get a lot more worse, you may find that some investors may have to give up their properties and so prices will start to correct."

    "For the short term, home prices in high-end (places), especially districts 9, 10, 11 will remain flat or go through turbulence because they have gone up sharply. Some homes, which have gone up to $4,000 psf, will need the rest of market to catch up before they find further support," said Knight Frank's director, Nicholas Mak.

    While URA flash estimates showed private property prices increased 4.2 per cent in the first quarter, the rise was only for a handful of properties.

    Chesterton's Colin Tan said: "I'd say the market is healthier if prices only rose 2 per cent and on a stronger sales volume, like 5 or 6 times the current volume."

    Still, the longer-term outlook appears to be positive.

    Knight Frank's Nicholas Mak said: "(Sales) volumes could remain thin for another six or nine months, but I think that after that.....market prices and rentals will start to grow at a gradual pace. The Singapore property market has all the factors necessary for it to continue to grow."

    Residential property prices grew by over 30 per cent last year. Analysts said the pace is too fast to be sustainable. A more palatable rate, they said, is 10 per cent. - CNA/ir

  2. #2
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Analysts say private home sales have peaked

    Haha - so much double talk.

    They say that prices have peaked to encourage sellers to lower their expectations and start selling.

    And they also say that long term prospects are good so that buyers will be prepared to buy.

    In other words, they need people to buy and sell.

    But if long term prospects are good, sellers can hold. And if prices have peaked then buyers should wait.

    In other words, don't sell and don't buy.

  3. #3
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Analysts say private home sales have peaked

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Haha - so much double talk.

    They say that prices have peaked to encourage sellers to lower their expectations and start selling.

    And they also say that long term prospects are good so that buyers will be prepared to buy.

    In other words, they need people to buy and sell.

    But if long term prospects are good, sellers can hold. And if prices have peaked then buyers should wait.

    In other words, don't sell and don't buy.
    Contradicting right!

  4. #4
    ben Guest

    Default Re: Analysts say private home sales have peaked

    so can look only...

  5. #5
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Analysts say private home sales have peaked

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Haha - so much double talk.

    They say that prices have peaked to encourage sellers to lower their expectations and start selling.

    And they also say that long term prospects are good so that buyers will be prepared to buy.

    In other words, they need people to buy and sell.

    But if long term prospects are good, sellers can hold. And if prices have peaked then buyers should wait.

    In other words, don't sell and don't buy.
    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Contradicting right!
    Look carefully, there were actually two different people interviewed: one bullish and one bearish.

    Bullish is Knight Frank's director, Nicholas Mak.

    Bearish is Chesterton's head of research & consultancy Colin Tan.

    Just like in this forum, there are bullish and bearish people.

  6. #6
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Analysts say private home sales have peaked

    Let me also be an "analyst".

    Singapore's property market is very safe, at least for the next 10 years until all the MRT projects are completed.

    Even if the property market doesn't go up, it will not go down.

    Because ... in order for the market to go down, the country has to be in recession.

    But how to have recession with the construction industry booming? Even if other sectors stop totally, the construction sector alone will ensure that the economy doesn't contract.

    Look at the MRT projects coming up:

    The Downtown line will be completed in three stages, opening by 2013, 2015 and 2016.

    The Boon Lay East-West extensions are slated for completion by 2015.

    The Thomson line will be completed in 2018.

    The Eastern Region line will be completed in 2020.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_Ra...sit_(Singapore)

    So for the next 12 years, until the completion of the Eastern Region line in 2020, Singapore will be one big construction work site. Each time an MRT station is completed, the property prices around that station will rise. This data will then be captured in the URA statistics, and so the property price index will rise again.

    That's why Mah Bow Tan is so confident to reject Kwek Leng Beng's suggestions regarding land sales and deferred payment. Simply because the economy is more in danger of overheating than cooling.

    I have not included other projects like the Jurong East redevelopment plan that is recently announced, the Punggol 21 Plus, the Paya Lebar Business Hub, Changi Regional Business Centre, further building projects in the Marina Bay area, and Changi Airport Terminal 4.

    The Ministry of Transport is currently working on a masterplan on Terminal 4. Aviation experts estimate the terminal will be built in the next 10 to 15 years.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singapo...ort#Terminal_4

  7. #7
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Analysts say private home sales have peaked

    EN BLOC FINISHED? MARKET DEAD?

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Owners say enbloc sale of Tulip Garden has been called off

    By Ng Baoying, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 07 April 2008 2353 hrs


    SINGAPORE: The enbloc sale of Tulip Garden, a freehold development in District 10, appears to be off.

    Tulip Garden was sold in July 2007 in a collective sale valued at S$516 million. The property is along the prime Holland Road and Farrer Road area.

    Channel NewsAsia understands that owners are now waiting to hear more details from the developer.

    Bravo Building Construction bought Tulip Garden at more than S$1,000 per square foot and the sale was scheduled to be completed by May.

    However, earlier reports stated that Bravo Building Construction was delaying the completion date and there was some talk that it was trying to arrange for alternative financing.

    Some owners of Tulip Garden have already received their share of the deposit for the sale.

    According to earlier reports, Bravo Building Construction has called off another enbloc sale - that of Makeway View in the Newton area and is also said to be delaying the completion date of the sale of Pender Court off West Coast Highway. - CNA/vm

  8. #8
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Analysts say private home sales have peaked

    ONLY ONE WAY FOR HOME PRICES....FOLLOWS THE SAME PATH TAKEN BY FLIPPERS JUMPING OFF HIGH RISES.....DOWN DOWN DEAD.

  9. #9
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Analysts say private home sales have peaked

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Look carefully, there were actually two different people interviewed: one bullish and one bearish.

    Bullish is Knight Frank's director, Nicholas Mak.

    Bearish is Chesterton's head of research & consultancy Colin Tan.

    Just like in this forum, there are bullish and bearish people.
    Pissed Pissed Pissed
    Those stuck are pissed
    Thought market would go up
    and they could flip
    But ended up getting the whip.
    Ohhh pissed pissed pissed
    Speculators are pissed

  10. #10
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Analysts say private home sales have peaked

    TULIP DEAD......MORE FLIPPERS TAKE THE AERIEL ROUTE.....JUMP JUMP JUMP.....WOOOOOHAHAHAHAH

  11. #11
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Analysts say private home sales have peaked

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Let me also be an "analyst".

    Singapore's property market is very safe, at least for the next 10 years until all the MRT projects are completed.

    Even if the property market doesn't go up, it will not go down.

    Because ... in order for the market to go down, the country has to be in recession.

    But how to have recession with the construction industry booming? Even if other sectors stop totally, the construction sector alone will ensure that the economy doesn't contract.

    Look at the MRT projects coming up:

    The Downtown line will be completed in three stages, opening by 2013, 2015 and 2016.

    The Boon Lay East-West extensions are slated for completion by 2015.

    The Thomson line will be completed in 2018.

    The Eastern Region line will be completed in 2020.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_Ra...sit_(Singapore)

    So for the next 12 years, until the completion of the Eastern Region line in 2020, Singapore will be one big construction work site. Each time an MRT station is completed, the property prices around that station will rise. This data will then be captured in the URA statistics, and so the property price index will rise again.

    That's why Mah Bow Tan is so confident to reject Kwek Leng Beng's suggestions regarding land sales and deferred payment. Simply because the economy is more in danger of overheating than cooling.

    I have not included other projects like the Jurong East redevelopment plan that is recently announced, the Punggol 21 Plus, the Paya Lebar Business Hub, Changi Regional Business Centre, further building projects in the Marina Bay area, and Changi Airport Terminal 4.

    The Ministry of Transport is currently working on a masterplan on Terminal 4. Aviation experts estimate the terminal will be built in the next 10 to 15 years.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singapo...ort#Terminal_4
    WHY GIVE ALL DATES WHEN YOU ARE DEAD BY THEN?

  12. #12
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Analysts say private home sales have peaked

    not a bad deal at all, 100K no strings attached credited straight into your account and you get to stay in your home.

  13. #13
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Analysts say private home sales have peaked

    Oh heard more thuds this morning. Did anyone else hear it? No prize for guessing the source of these thuds.....well just go to some high rises and very likely that you would see a crowd there.

  14. #14
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Analysts say private home sales have peaked

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    not a bad deal at all, 100K no strings attached credited straight into your account and you get to stay in your home.
    100K invested in rice would give more returns than enbloc. wooohahahaha.

  15. #15
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Analysts say private home sales have peaked

    Peaked Peaked Peaked
    Analysts say it has peaked
    Desperate flippers get freaked
    Because they realised that the news has leaked
    Now on to the exits as fast as they could bolt
    Beacuse no question of their units ever being sold
    Mayhem all over as they rush
    Fellow flippers will they crush?
    Thud Thud Thud Splash Splash Splash
    It is all over in a flash

  16. #16
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Analysts say private home sales have peaked

    Wow you must really hate the "speculators"? What did they do to you? Buy that property you could not afford? Snatched away that dream of yours? Talked about all the "paper profits" they made making you feel lousy? Now you think that you can get back at them? But seriously dude all the smart money has long "cashed out" and the so called "thuds" you are waiting to hear is probably your fellow neighbours who "chased" the market. The foreign money is long gone and being spent in the real costa del sol.

  17. #17
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Analysts say private home sales have peaked

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Wow you must really hate the "speculators"? What did they do to you? Buy that property you could not afford? Snatched away that dream of yours? Talked about all the "paper profits" they made making you feel lousy? Now you think that you can get back at them? But seriously dude all the smart money has long "cashed out" and the so called "thuds" you are waiting to hear is probably your fellow neighbours who "chased" the market. The foreign money is long gone and being spent in the real costa del sol.
    Pissed Pissed Pissed
    Those stuck are pissed
    Thought market would go up
    and they could flip
    But ended up getting the whip.
    Ohhh pissed pissed pissed
    Speculators are pissed

  18. #18
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Analysts say private home sales have peaked

    with so many construction going on now at singapore,

    even jurong this far away place also will be having

    a major change over

    How can property prices drop?

    You mean gahmen pump so much money into so many big

    project for nothing one , or just doing some losing money

    business?

    Actually i think no point argue over here price will drop or increase

    all is common sense one, you be the judge yourself

  19. #19
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Analysts say private home sales have peaked

    Go ahead and construct, the more the better!

    Record construction--> Record Supply --> Glut coming.

  20. #20
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Analysts say private home sales have peaked

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    with so many construction going on now at singapore,

    even jurong this far away place also will be having

    a major change over

    How can property prices drop?

    You mean gahmen pump so much money into so many big

    project for nothing one , or just doing some losing money

    business?

    Actually i think no point argue over here price will drop or increase

    all is common sense one, you be the judge yourself
    I guess its no point debating to those people who can't even read the hint from the govt's masterplan for our next 10-15 years. I've got the hint much earlier and have now vested myself to reap the rewards in the future. Huat ah!! Singapore!!!

  21. #21
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Analysts say private home sales have peaked

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    I guess its no point debating to those people who can't even read the hint from the govt's masterplan for our next 10-15 years. I've got the hint much earlier and have now vested myself to reap the rewards in the future. Huat ah!! Singapore!!!
    Pissed Pissed Pissed
    Those stuck are pissed
    Thought market would go up
    and they could flip
    But ended up getting the whip.
    Ohhh pissed pissed pissed
    Speculators are pissed

  22. #22
    Unregistered Guest

    Red face Re: Analysts say private home sales have peaked

    if want properties to be cheap in singapore

    can why not?

    stop all the construction , no more IR , no more overseas school,

    no more investor coming in ...

    then confirm everything also cheap on

    even education system will be cheapo too

    then we will all go back to our kampong days catching guppies

    and stay in kamping hut

  23. #23
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Analysts say private home sales have peaked

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Pissed Pissed Pissed
    Those stuck are pissed
    Thought market would go up
    and they could flip
    But ended up getting the whip.
    Ohhh pissed pissed pissed
    Speculators are pissed
    i think u are very drama lar

    u should go and produce some cartoon show

    this is a adult forum

    if u want to act stupid and childish

    please go home and play your kids toys

  24. #24
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Analysts say private home sales have peaked

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    I guess its no point debating to those people who can't even read the hint from the govt's masterplan for our next 10-15 years. I've got the hint much earlier and have now vested myself to reap the rewards in the future. Huat ah!! Singapore!!!
    What we are seeing is natural after the steep jump within short span last year since sentiment affecting. There are many procastinating at this stage for reason of pricing, not affordability. Market can afford a drop up drop up and then steep climb. Market as a whole has not reached '96 high yet and so far history shows no cycle ended lower than previous high. On the whole, property is still worth considering although not for flipping to make quick bucks.

  25. #25
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Analysts say private home sales have peaked

    http://news.asiaone.com/News/Latest%...408-58617.html

    if this is true, then lesser demand for properties.

  26. #26
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Analysts say private home sales have peaked

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    i think u are very drama lar

    u should go and produce some cartoon show

    this is a adult forum

    if u want to act stupid and childish

    please go home and play your kids toys
    Analysts say private home sales have peaked

    By Ng Baoying, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 07 April 2008 2347 hrs


    SINGAPORE: Sales of private properties have been sliding amid a standoff between buyers and sellers, say market watchers.

    In February, sales for new launches were only one tenth of the record numbers seen in August last year......................................................

    Last year, property launches drew a crowd despite the extravagant price tags. But now, the market is paying for it in more ways than one. Prices are coming off their highs, leaving some buyers with significant losses........

    ................................................................

    While URA flash estimates showed private property prices increased 4.2 per cent in the first quarter, the rise was only for a handful of properties.

    ...................................................................................
    Oh the 4.2% deceives some speculators........

  27. #27
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Analysts say private home sales have peaked

    Look at lower end of mass market which had not attracted as much attention as others. Ist batch Executive Condos best bet with 1 more year to go fully private and any foreigner can buy. They are 1/3 rd cheaper than new compact ECs in market which only Singaporeans cab buy. They are economical housing and ideal for the indian, chinese and lower rung western migrants. So far no restriction and Singaporean can buy as many resale ECs as they want and can sell to this big group of eager foreigners who care less locals stigma put on ECs.

  28. #28
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Analysts say private home sales have peaked

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    not a bad deal at all, 100K no strings attached credited straight into your account and you get to stay in your home.
    The sour grapes must be very sour to read this type of news.

    Being paid 100K and get to stay in your home. This type of fortune will never visit them.

    Which reminds me of my own en bloc last year. After the en bloc, in the six months between collecting the money and handing over keys to developers, many of my neighbours suddenly changed new cars. New Mercedes, BMWs and Jaguars, plus some cars I've never seen before.

    It's quite a strange sight to behold. An old condo that becomes like a new car showroom. A bit out of place.

    I did not change new car as I prefer to keep money in the bank. I like to use Internet banking to count the zeroes. It's a secret hobby.

  29. #29
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Analysts say private home sales have peaked

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Look at lower end of mass market which had not attracted as much attention as others. Ist batch Executive Condos best bet with 1 more year to go fully private and any foreigner can buy. They are 1/3 rd cheaper than new compact ECs in market which only Singaporeans cab buy. They are economical housing and ideal for the indian, chinese and lower rung western migrants. So far no restriction and Singaporean can buy as many resale ECs as they want and can sell to this big group of eager foreigners who care less locals stigma put on ECs.
    Much as I feel now is not the time to buy propoerties unless you need a roof, what you said does make some sense. In fact, I sold my EC to a Bulgarian family who is a Sg PR. To him, even though EC is not centrally located, it doesnt matter at all as he thinks Singapore is not that big and communting time is reasonable. But some of these EC owners are also asking for quite high px coz they bought it at the previous peak which was rather high.

  30. #30
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Analysts say private home sales have peaked

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Much as I feel now is not the time to buy propoerties unless you need a roof, what you said does make some sense. In fact, I sold my EC to a Bulgarian family who is a Sg PR. To him, even though EC is not centrally located, it doesnt matter at all as he thinks Singapore is not that big and communting time is reasonable. But some of these EC owners are also asking for quite high px coz they bought it at the previous peak which was rather high.
    We may complain alot about public transport but these foreigners feel Singapore transport system is paradise and this mentality supports our mass market. People take train or cycle in businees suit to work in London. Is it coincidental that your EC was in Bukit Panjang as I was looking at one there which was sold to Bulgarian pr. Bought another unit there.

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