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Thread: What I think of the property sector till end of year By Andy Ong.

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    Default What I think of the property sector till end of year By Andy Ong.

    http://www.andy-ong.com/2014/09/what...ctor-till.html

    What I think of the property sector till end of year
    Hi Guys, since I posted my last blog entry, I have been getting a lot of emails requesting for advice that relates to a personal basis. However, I need to reiterate that I stopped answering personal questions since end last year (which is my commitment to you). Apologies but I really need to focus on my core businesses. I am updating my blog as an exception due to the fact that I hope to share with you my personal feel, so I hope you can infer from my entries to make the right investment decision.

    One of my colleagues just asked me if he should be renting or buying now. My answer is if you can crash with your parents now, you are a lucky person. I will not be buying or renting now, however if I have no choice, I will delay my rental decision. Why? Over the next year or so, we will be seeing massive supply of residential unit coming on into the market. They were purchased at market highs pre the cooling measures days. Those were the days of 'irrational exuberance', to borrow a term from the former Fed chairman, Alan Greenspan. I don't blame them as we are in an era of negative real interest rates, that means the bank is actually subsidising you to invest as the value of your dollar cannot keep up with inflation.

    But guess what, the demand for rental has come down drastically as the government has tightened the eligibility of foreign talent into Singapore. We have witnessed lower rental rates on an absolute basis as well as on a yield basis. Imagine with the added supply to the current stock, and you can expect a lot of competition for rentals. Some investors have already given up as we see mortgagee sales going up but I feel this is the tip of the ice berg. The hardest hit sector is where foreign money have been going in. Sentosa is a case in point, we have seen condos and landed houses there dip by more than 20%. A big unit transacted there at $1100 plus psf! This is a far cry from the heydays.

    The high end sector in Singapore mainland has not been that affected but we will be seeing some impact soon. Developers are lowering prices to move their stock, from very prime Orchard vicinity sites like the Hilltops to mass market units like the Sky Habitat. They have moved some units after cutting prices. Developers are hesitant to be launching new projects and have delayed such launches indefinitely. All the signs do not bode well for this sector.

    I have sold all my residential sites save one, a small condo.

    Well, this is what I shared with my colleague, no condo, no HDB. Chill for the time being and watch the forces of demand and supply play out. I still do not see a crash but even if you need a roof over your head, you should be able to get a more cost effective one in the next couple of years.


    God Bless and take care!

    Andy Ong

  2. #2
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    What anybody thinks is good as what anybody thinks in this market... Why need to keep reposting his message?

    Just curious.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    I think he cannot be known as anybody, he is more than anybody.

    Just like to share and see whether how many agree with what he(anybody) say.

    And it will be good to look back 5 to 10 years later to see whether anybody(he) is right or wrong.

    http://forums.condosingapore.com/sho...-18-month-high
    Last edited by Arcachon; 03-09-14 at 23:19.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    I think he cannot be known as anybody, he is more than anybody.

    Just like to share and see whether how many agree with what he(anybody) say.

    And it will be good to look back 5 to 10 years later to see whether anybody(he) is right or wrong.

    http://forums.condosingapore.com/sho...-18-month-high
    Did not mean to say that he is just anybody and not somebody. Really meant as anybody as in any expert.

    Not sure if experts really will take such a drastic stance. It depends on the portfolio held. Certain classes crash while others boom in such markets. More than meets the eye for someone to just sell all except 1.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    This Andy Ong has been bearish in properties long years before?

    Anyway, he makes one point: low interest rate is a pushing factor of property price rising.
    Another factor is iterated by Arcachon for many times, that is the aggressive printing of paper money.

    Will the interest rate increase significantly in the next five years is a question. Will goverment in the world tight their belts in next five years?
    Wonder how many will answer "yes" for these two questions?

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    till End of year is just 3 months away. Not very meaningful as it is too short a time frame and quite obvious the market will continue to be muted during this period.

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    The so called experts often create homogeneous impression of the whole property market. When in fact the market is really diverse. Being an investor u must invest. U are never out of the market entirely. There is always value. But I salute his stance. All or nothing approach is very dangerous. His children might end up hating him.

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    Quote Originally Posted by indomie View Post
    The so called experts often create homogeneous impression of the whole property market. When in fact the market is really diverse. Being an investor u must invest. U are never out of the market entirely. There is always value. But I salute his stance. All or nothing approach is very dangerous. His children might end up hating him.
    I didnt sell, now renting out the two units and getting the keys for the 3rd unit next month to rent out to collect passive income..... lucky nver sell, because garment will not allow me to buy anymore! I already tell my children tat they will start invest in condo wen they turn 21, I will help them with the first 20% with the rental income I accumulate.... since young I always planned for my future! tat is wat I want to share!

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    I have 5 units am still collecting rent. reason not to sell is got them at a low. rental yield is good. even with lower rental its still good. and like the previous post said. sell liao I cannot buy. coz have to pay a hefty tax to buy again. so just camp and enjoy the scene. In all investment there will be up n down.
    “Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.”
    ― Martin Luther King, Jr.

    OUT WITH THE SHIT TRASH

    https://www.facebook.com/shutdowntrs

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    Did not mean to say that he is just anybody and not somebody. Really meant as anybody as in any expert.

    Not sure if experts really will take such a drastic stance. It depends on the portfolio held. Certain classes crash while others boom in such markets. More than meets the eye for someone to just sell all except 1.
    Sometime it's good to gather a few more view then to follow anybody(he) blindly. The purpose of the posting show anybody have their own view and time will tell whether it is right or wrong.

    This is my view.

    Still holding my 5 room HDB (sorry to those who strongly feel HDB is for own stay own) rent out recently for SGD 2500, my mum sent my father to the nursing home and move back to her 3 room HDB.

    Rent out my 2 Bedroom @ Southbank for SGD 4200.

    Terrasse 3 Bedroom PH waiting for TOP end 2014.

    Staying in France waiting to post back to Singapore.

    If the Bank can loan me money to buy I will still buy.


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    What you say about gathering more views is true.

    I just had the impression of seeing this Andy Ong post several times but I might be mistaken.

    Thanks for sharing your views too.

    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    Sometime it's good to gather a few more view then to follow anybody(he) blindly. The purpose of the posting show anybody have their own view and time will tell whether it is right or wrong.

    This is my view.

    Still holding my 5 room HDB (sorry to those who strongly feel HDB is for own stay own) rent out recently for SGD 2500, my mum sent my father to the nursing home and move back to her 3 room HDB.

    Rent out my 2 Bedroom @ Southbank for SGD 4200.

    Terrasse 3 Bedroom PH waiting for TOP end 2014.

    Staying in France waiting to post back to Singapore.

    If the Bank can loan me money to buy I will still buy.

    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    teddybear is offline Global recession is coming....
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    Japan is still printing...
    EU continuing to print and feel not enough and MUST PRINT even more and faster...
    And the best part of all, despite all the talks, US is still printing! Ha ha ha!

    All these printing means paper money losing value and better hold on to hard physical assets that can't be printed!

    Some people will say what happen when they stop printing and increase rates?

    Well, this is the BESTest of best part: It means economy finally is STRONG enough and many more years to go and inflation will start to hit the roof and better hold on to hard physical assets to participate in inflation!

    So, all those out there, while it is true there are policies enacted to prevent you from profiting too much from your hard physical assets and from leveraging more and make you scared into selling (too early and too cheap!), you must check all other alternative investments/holdings and will come to realize it is better to leverage more and hold on to your hard physical assets and you better don't be swirl by these policies! There are also those who sold too early and everyday shouting "crash crash crash" hoping to buy back chea cheap! They are just noises! Policies alone never crush market, only economic recession will!


    Quote Originally Posted by lionhill View Post
    This Andy Ong has been bearish in properties long years before?

    Anyway, he makes one point: low interest rate is a pushing factor of property price rising.
    Another factor is iterated by Arcachon for many times, that is the aggressive printing of paper money.

    Will the interest rate increase significantly in the next five years is a question. Will goverment in the world tight their belts in next five years?
    Wonder how many will answer "yes" for these two questions?

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    SINGAPORE - How much would you pay for somebody's back garden?

    A couple in their 70s are asking for $9.8 million for theirs.

    Once carved out, the 39,000 sq ft plot in the Seletar Hills area can be developed into about two dozen terrace houses.

    It is up for sale because the couple feel they are too old to manage their garden, but love their home too much to move away.

    They bought their home, which is off Yio Chu Kang Road, for $40,000 in 1961. The entire compound has an area of 71,000 sq ft, about the size of a football field.

    In land-scarce Singapore, where most people live in high-rise apartments, homes this size are rare.

    After selling off their back garden, they will still be left with a 32,000 sq ft plot on which their bungalow, maids' quarters and an outhouse, stand.

    The couple, Ms Kathleen Chung and Dr Chou Sip King, said they bought their home from developer Bukit Sembawang Estates.

    The company was responsible for most of the housing development in the Seletar Hills area in the 1950s and 1960s.

    According to Ms Chung, a retired physiotherapist, there were several other such bungalows in the vicinity in the 1960s.

    But most of these large compounds have since been sold and redeveloped into more homes. The couple, however, decided to hang on to theirs.

    During the 1996 property boom, several developers offered to pay as much as $400 per square foot, or $28.4 million, for their land, much more than the $250 psf they are asking for now. But they turned them down.

    'We didn't think about it, because we still wanted to enjoy the garden,' said Ms Chung. And it is a garden to behold. The undulating plot has durian and rambutan trees, a lily pond, rock paths and cement figurines of koalas, eagles, pandas, pigs, penguins, cows, cranes and even a mermaid. Several of these figurines were made by Dr Chou, a retired doctor.

    Quipped Ms Chung: 'It's like a zoo in here.'

    The couple, who do not have children, live in the bungalow with two Indonesian maids and two dogs. Both used to take daily walks in the garden, but hardly ever do so now as they have walking difficulties.

    She added: 'It's too big to manage. Our gardener, who has been working with us for 20 years, is in his 60s. He cannot work forever.'

    The couple are not daunted by the construction work they will face daily once the land is sold and redeveloped. For them, that is a better option than leaving their home, which has a front garden decorated with many mini Chinese pagodas that Dr Chou also made.

    Their marketing agent, Mr Jacky Chan, an executive director with property consultancy Chesterton International, said that a cluster 23 terrace houses can fit into the plot. Each home will have a 660 sq ft ground floor, two storeys and a basement.

    Developers can build up to three storeys and there are still 874 years to go on its 999-year lease.

    Consultants say the plot may be of interest to small and medium sized developers.

    Mr Ho Eng Joo, investment sales director at property consultancy Colliers International, estimates that the break-even cost for such a development would range from $900,000 to $1 million per unit if the development charge of $1.5 million is factored in.

    The tender for the plot closes on May 6.

    For now, Ms Chung is content to admire the garden from her back porch every morning, her favourite time of the day.

    'Everything is so fresh, and there are plenty of birds,' she said.

    This article was published on Apr 8, 2004 in The Straits Times.

    Get a copy of The Straits Times or go to straitstimes.com for more stories.

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    2004? So the plot of back garden has become?

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    come 2015, AEC formation should lead to influx of middle class migrant looking for better job prospect in Sg. None of the experts mentioned about this or maybe they cannot predict what is the effect of this. I might have missed them if they have...
    freedom of movement for human resources, goods and services, etc. How many from our neighboring countries would choose to land their feet here? Did our gov know about this and that's why they have planted so many measures to pull the bull back? So will rental boom even with the increase of developments TOP and many HDB vacant for rental? if you put everything together, property seems like going to start another new cycle. up up and up ... so personally, no selling now, and if you can, should buy again. rental will strengthen next year but of course, location is also important factor...my opinion.

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