Industry watchers hope new Master Plan will include higher plot ratios

[Unregistered]

Wah lau! All solid facts and figures.
Nothing to say. I rest my case.

After he posted his reply and you rested your case, the Dow Jones moves up. Good!

[Unregistered]

After he posted his reply and you rested your case, the Dow Jones moves up. Good!

12.00pm, U.S. EDT

At midday, the U.S. stock market is trading with a slight gain. 6 of the 10 economic sectors are in the green. This is actually pretty decent.

[Unregistered]

12.00pm, U.S. EDT

At midday, the U.S. stock market is trading with a slight gain. 6 of the 10 economic sectors are in the green. This is actually pretty decent.

Shit! Everyday goes up.

[Unregistered]

I have some questions for Mr. Hong Kong Property Analyst, can you be my "messenger" as well.

#1. ChannelNewsAsia on 27 February 2008 reported that "Last year, Singapore saw over 63,000 new PRs, an 11-per-cent increase from 2006; and the city-state also welcomed more than 17,000 new citizens, a 30-per-cent jump."

Every year, we have 63,000 + 17,000 = 80,000 new immigrants, that is not including foreigners who come here on employment pass (but not taking up citizenships or PRs).

What do you mean "no demand for housing"? May I know where these 80,000 people are going to stay? Inside the canals?

In case you are not familiar with Singapore, here is the news URL to our government broadcasting station regarding the news I quoted above.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...331492/1/.html

#2. ChannelNewsAsia reported on 10 August 2007 that Singapore's "Financial services expanded by 17 per cent in the second quarter, up from 14 per cent growth in the first quarter, while the construction sector grew by 18 per cent, the strongest growth in almost 10 years. Growth in the manufacturing sector picked up pace to 8.3 per cent."

No matter how I calculate, I don't know how you arrived at the figure that "growth was 99% construction related."?

In case you are not familiar with Singapore, here is the news URL to our government broadcasting station regarding the news I quoted above.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...293171/1/.html

#3. You said "The existing luxury housing vacancy levels in Singapore were adequate to fill the needs of Singaporeans and any possible influx of new senior executives for the next 5 years. Thus, there was no demand for executive luxury housing in the market."

Then may I ask you what about this person called Jet Li?

Your Hong Kong magazine wrote "Actor Jet Li moved to Singapore last year for his daughters’ education, reported Hong Kong’s Next Magazine recently ... he bought a S$7mil (RM16.1mil) unit at nearby Ardmore Park condominium."

Is Jet Li a "senior executive" from some Multinational Company? Must luxury housing be only for "senior executives"?

Is Jet Li's purchase of Armore Park luxury condominium illegal? Since he is not a "senior executive"?

#4. Can you explain why our "projected growth of economy" is no good?

A MasterCard International survey showed that"Being often touted recently as the next unexplored, potential-filled Asian emerging economy, Vietnam unsurprisingly registered, among the 13 nations surveyed, the highest score of 94.3 points in the MasterIndex of Consumer Confidence (MCC), which ranges from 0 to 100 points, with Taiwan posting the lowest at 29.7 points. Hong Kong came in second position with a score of 85.9 points, closely followed by China and Singapore, which posted 85.5 and 83.6 points, respectively." http://news.cens.com/cens/html/en/ne...ner_22113.html

Singapore is ranked fourth, after Vietnam (94.3 points), Hong Kong (85.9 points), China (85.5 points) and Singapore (83.6 points).

Singapore is ranked 4th and just 2.3 points behind Hong Kong as the next unexplored, potential-filled Asian emerging economy, why is that considered "no good"?

#4 (You've got two points #4 and this is the second one) You said "Non of these new inhabitants will be buying or renting condo's, especially in the high-end."

Then what about Dr. Sudhir Gupta, "Born in India, moved to Russia to get Ph.D. in agricultural chemistry. Started tire company in Moscow ... Escaped assassination attempt in Moscow 4 years ago; now shuttles between that city and Singapore, where he's a citizen.

http://www.forbes.com/lists/2006/79/...upta_AHUD.html

He bought a luxury bungalow at Binjai Park for $12.55 million and 22 apartments, including the 63rd-storey penthouse, in the second tower of The Sail @ Marina Bay condo for a total $31 million.

Aren't these properties considered "high end", can you define what is meant by "high end"?

#5. I don't understand your this statement at all "Singapore is not a supply/demand driven economy. It is a small, managed economy. Thus, the property development plans were lofty, risky, and not based on future real supply/demand realities."

This statement totally confounds me so I need you to explain what you mean?

#6. Why do you say that Singapore lacks "real, transparent, objective information available"?

According to Jones Lang LaSelle report on Global Real Estates Transparency, "Highly Transparent countries for the first time in 2006 are Hong Kong, Sweden, France and Singapore, each having jumped to Tier 1 from Tier 2 since the 2004 survey."

http://www.joneslanglasalle.com/en-G...kets+Trans.htm

Singapore and Hong Kong both have been promoted from Tier 2 to Tier 1 as "Highly Transparent Countries", together with Sweden and France.

So can you please explain your statement "There is a lack of real, transparent, objective information available in the Singapore market about the Singapore market."?

#7. You predicted that "Global money supplies and markets are taking a beating and will continue to take a beating. The second call on the sub prime products happens this June so more big losses are expected. This will stall or even damage the Singapore economy."

I want to ask, if you are so good at predicting, then last June (just before the sub-prime) did you go short-sell USD100 billion worth of US stock futures contracts through leveraged margin-trading account? Especially short Bear-Stearns shares, then you would be a multi-billionaire by now.

Then why are you still working as a "Asia property analyst for a small successful private investment bank."?

Very well written. Good substance.

Hey Mr. Messager, we are ALL WAITING for your Mr. Hong Kong Property Analyst reply. Please send the above message to him.

[Unregistered]

Very well written. Good substance.

Hey Mr. Messager, we are ALL WAITING for your Mr. Hong Kong Property Analyst reply. Please send the above message to him.

You work for CNA?

[Unregistered]

Read the Post Below - Before you take action

I sent my buddy an e-mail asking if it was a good time to buy property in Singapore...

He's a Hong Kong based Asia property analyst for a small successful private investment bank.
He sent me this....(don't shoot me, I'm just the messenger.)

Quote:
Well...I would wait at least another 6 months to a year.

We told clients and investors to sell all Singapore holdings (property, stocks and everything else) in June 2007. We determined that prices would never, ever be higher and were predicting a 15% drop in pricing by March 2008 and 25% drop by June 2008.

Rationale was simple and not rocket science.

#1. There was no demand for housing when the boom started.
The vacancy rates on existing housing were above New York, London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and other major urban market levels. A Singapore property boom made no sense at all.

#2. Singapore GDP...nice impressive numbers. But the growth was 99% construction related. There is no economic growth when the construction boom ends and those numbers are subtracted from the total.

#3. The existing luxury housing vacancy levels in Singapore were adequate to fill the needs of Singaporeans and any possible influx of new senior executives for the next 5 years. Thus, there was no demand for executive luxury housing in the market.

#4. Value for money on Singapore property for foreign investors is not good when compared to other projected growth economies. (several factors are weighed including psf, quality of workmanship, size of economy, projected growth of economy, lifestyle and culture of the market.)

#4. The targeted future population numbers of Singapore are pie in the sky and completely without substance. Singaporeans are not having kids and the demand for jobs in Singapore will be service led lower paying jobs to supply the planned tourism developments. Non of these new inhabitants will be buying or renting condo's, especially in the high-end. And tourists visit, they don't buy or rent.

#5. Singapore is not a supply/demand driven economy. It is a small, managed economy. Thus, the property development plans were lofty, risky, and not based on future real supply/demand realities.

#6. There is a lack of real, transparent, objective information available in the Singapore market about the Singapore market. This leads to investors belief in hype and speculation rather than economic principles.

#7. Global money supplies and markets are taking a beating and will continue to take a beating. The second call on the sub prime products happens this June so more big losses are expected. This will stall or even damage the Singapore economy.

We expect distress sales in the property market to start soon. The high-end rental market is non-existent and the higher % of all unit sales were high-end investment property, speculator driven.
These buyers need "wealthy" renters to subsidize the million dollar mortgages. Most locals cannot afford the rents the market is demanding.
Surveys of multinational companies and banks have indicated that there is no boat-load of expats with a big housing allowance arriving at the Singapore port anytime soon. The new owner is now stuck with 100% of a very expensive monthly mortgage.

Here is an example of one major high-end development I'm following to prove the point. These are some very telling numbers.
600+ units launched
20+ remaining at $2,000 per square foot via the developer.
100+ units previously sold are now for sale privately less than 7 months after launch for $1,300 to $1,600 per square foot.
The reason...no rental income.
That tells me that property owners are willing to admit that market prices are down 25%+ already. Unfortunately, even at a 25% discount, there are no buyers.

Existing Singapore residents are keeping the rental market buoyant due to the fact they sold their old places and are waiting for the prices to drop...OR...waiting for their new unit to be completed. These people are relatively small in overall numbers and definitely not going to rent high end luxury units. They are driving HDB, middle priced housing rents up right now. They are also demanding 12 month leases or even less if they can get it proving that they are waiting to move or sitting on the sidelines waiting for prices to drop.

The Singapore property market is massively oversupplied today and more units are on the way. This is not good. This is should be extremely troublesome to anyone who owns property anywhere in that market. The potential valuation losses in the property market could be enormous, especially at the high-end. Overall prices could sink well below SARS levels and this could happen within 6 months to a year.

The short lived property boom was very much like a pyramid scheme.
It was all hype and no substance.
The first guys in are now smoking big cigars.
The last guys in are now left holding the ashtray.

Thanks friend you saved my day. now can wait and buy at lower price. I can see the signs already.

[Unregistered]

Read the Post Below - Before you take action

I sent my buddy an e-mail asking if it was a good time to buy property in Singapore...

He's a Hong Kong based Asia property analyst for a small successful private investment bank.
He sent me this....(don't shoot me, I'm just the messenger.)

Quote:
Well...I would wait at least another 6 months to a year.

We told clients and investors to sell all Singapore holdings (property, stocks and everything else) in June 2007. We determined that prices would never, ever be higher and were predicting a 15% drop in pricing by March 2008 and 25% drop by June 2008.

Rationale was simple and not rocket science.

#1. There was no demand for housing when the boom started.
The vacancy rates on existing housing were above New York, London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and other major urban market levels. A Singapore property boom made no sense at all.

#2. Singapore GDP...nice impressive numbers. But the growth was 99% construction related. There is no economic growth when the construction boom ends and those numbers are subtracted from the total.

#3. The existing luxury housing vacancy levels in Singapore were adequate to fill the needs of Singaporeans and any possible influx of new senior executives for the next 5 years. Thus, there was no demand for executive luxury housing in the market.

#4. Value for money on Singapore property for foreign investors is not good when compared to other projected growth economies. (several factors are weighed including psf, quality of workmanship, size of economy, projected growth of economy, lifestyle and culture of the market.)

#4. The targeted future population numbers of Singapore are pie in the sky and completely without substance. Singaporeans are not having kids and the demand for jobs in Singapore will be service led lower paying jobs to supply the planned tourism developments. Non of these new inhabitants will be buying or renting condo's, especially in the high-end. And tourists visit, they don't buy or rent.

#5. Singapore is not a supply/demand driven economy. It is a small, managed economy. Thus, the property development plans were lofty, risky, and not based on future real supply/demand realities.

#6. There is a lack of real, transparent, objective information available in the Singapore market about the Singapore market. This leads to investors belief in hype and speculation rather than economic principles.

#7. Global money supplies and markets are taking a beating and will continue to take a beating. The second call on the sub prime products happens this June so more big losses are expected. This will stall or even damage the Singapore economy.

We expect distress sales in the property market to start soon. The high-end rental market is non-existent and the higher % of all unit sales were high-end investment property, speculator driven.
These buyers need "wealthy" renters to subsidize the million dollar mortgages. Most locals cannot afford the rents the market is demanding.
Surveys of multinational companies and banks have indicated that there is no boat-load of expats with a big housing allowance arriving at the Singapore port anytime soon. The new owner is now stuck with 100% of a very expensive monthly mortgage.

Here is an example of one major high-end development I'm following to prove the point. These are some very telling numbers.
600+ units launched
20+ remaining at $2,000 per square foot via the developer.
100+ units previously sold are now for sale privately less than 7 months after launch for $1,300 to $1,600 per square foot.
The reason...no rental income.
That tells me that property owners are willing to admit that market prices are down 25%+ already. Unfortunately, even at a 25% discount, there are no buyers.

Existing Singapore residents are keeping the rental market buoyant due to the fact they sold their old places and are waiting for the prices to drop...OR...waiting for their new unit to be completed. These people are relatively small in overall numbers and definitely not going to rent high end luxury units. They are driving HDB, middle priced housing rents up right now. They are also demanding 12 month leases or even less if they can get it proving that they are waiting to move or sitting on the sidelines waiting for prices to drop.

The Singapore property market is massively oversupplied today and more units are on the way. This is not good. This is should be extremely troublesome to anyone who owns property anywhere in that market. The potential valuation losses in the property market could be enormous, especially at the high-end. Overall prices could sink well below SARS levels and this could happen within 6 months to a year.

The short lived property boom was very much like a pyramid scheme.
It was all hype and no substance.
The first guys in are now smoking big cigars.
The last guys in are now left holding the ashtray.

I dont want to be an ashtray guy please. Thank you so much for your concern for all. We poor folks were being misled to some morons here saying buy buy. Maybe they are stuck.

[Unregistered]

Jan. 2 (Bloomberg) — Singapore’s economy unexpectedly contracted last quarter as factory output slowed, suggesting Asia’s export-dependent markets may face increased risks from slower global growth.

Gross domestic product shrank an annualized 3.2 percent after adjusting for inflation, the first decline in 18 quarters, and followed a revised 4.4 percent expansion in the third quarter, the trade ministry said in a statement today. Economists were expecting a 3.1 percent gain.

Singapore’s fourth-quarter figures give economists an insight into how turmoil in global markets and the subprime- mortgage crisis in the U.S., the region’s biggest export destination, may affect Asia’s expansion. South Korea and Taiwan have already warned that easing demand for semiconductors, mobile phones and computers portends weaker growth in 2008.

“We definitely should expect to see more softness in exports in the next couple of quarters, and that’s bad news for electronics-heavy Asian economies,” said Kit Wei Zheng, an economist at Citigroup Inc. in Singapore. “That means slower growth for Singapore and the rest of Asia.”

The Singapore dollar was unchanged at S$1.4413 per U.S. dollar as of 11:37 a.m. in Singapore. The benchmark Straits Times Index fell 0.4 percent to 3,467.91.

China, South Korea and the Philippines are due to report fourth-quarter GDP numbers later this month, while Japan, Taiwan and Malaysia are scheduled to release theirs in February.

Growth to Ease

The Asian Development Bank last month said growth in emerging East Asia in 2008 will be 8 percent, half a percentage point lower than last year. The region is twice as reliant on exports as the rest of the world, with 60 percent of overseas sales ultimately destined for the U.S., Europe and Japan.

From a year earlier, Singapore’s $132 billion economy grew 6 percent in the fourth quarter after gaining a revised 9 percent in the previous three months. Economists were expecting 7.7 percent growth.

Manufacturing climbed 0.5 percent in the last three months of 2007 from a year earlier, the smallest increase in 4 1/2 years. Output growth slowed from a revised 10.3 percent in the July-September period, the trade ministry said.

“There’s no imminent turnaround in electronics and we’re unlikely to see a recovery in the next six months,” said Irvin Seah, an economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd. in Singapore. “Pharmaceuticals, a key support for manufacturing, has been losing steam.”

Electronics Slump

Singapore’s electronic exports have dropped each month since February, mired in the worst slump in five years. South Korea yesterday lowered its growth forecast for 2008, pointing to the likelihood of slowing exports. Taiwan is also predicting an easing in overseas shipments this year which it said will make its growth target “highly challenging.”

Hynix Semiconductor Inc. Chief Executive Officer Kim Jong Kap last week told employees of the world’s second-largest maker of memory chips, based in Ichon, South Korea, that “a difficult period” is foreseen for the first quarter or the first half.

South Korea’s exports rose a less-than-expected 15.5 percent in December from a year earlier, the Commerce Ministry reported today. Overseas shipments are forecast to increase 11.6 percent in 2008, the ministry said.

Singapore’s services industry climbed 8.3 percent from a year earlier, matching the growth rate in the previous three- month period.

Economists said demand for financial services probably eased as the rout in global credit markets increased risk aversion and the city-state’s government implemented measures to cool the property market.

Stocks Tumble

Global stock markets have lost $1.6 trillion in value since October and the collapse of the subprime-mortgage market in the U.S. triggered more than $80 billion in writedowns among the world’s largest banks.

“Singapore’s financial services industry has been affected by the shadow of the subprime problem,” Seah said. “Investors are more cautious and that has slowed down activity.”

The island’s burgeoning construction industry prevented a wider contraction in the economy last quarter as companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp. set up new plants and property developers build new office towers and condominiums. Southeast Asia’s fourth-largest economy reported a record S$16 billion ($11 billion) in fixed-asset investments last year.

Construction surged 24.4 percent from a year earlier, after a revised 19.2 percent gain in the three months ended September.

The economy advanced 7.5 percent in 2007, easing from a 7.9 percent rate of expansion the year before. The government expects growth to be between 4.5 percent and 6.5 percent in 2008.

Singapore’s growth had raised concern the economy is overheating, with consumer prices rising at the fastest pace in more than 25 years. Policy makers expect inflation to be between 3.5 percent and 4.5 percent this year, accelerating from a forecast average of 2 percent in 2007.

The figures today are computed from data for October and November. Revised numbers, including nominal gross domestic product, will be released next month.

[Unregistered]

12.00pm, U.S. EDT

At midday, the U.S. stock market is trading with a slight gain. 6 of the 10 economic sectors are in the green. This is actually pretty decent.

Yes ended up red.

[Unregistered]

Paya Lebar Business Hub is very good.
Kallang is good too but limited to the area around the Sports Hub.
Not sure what plan they have for Punggol.

Wah I like to do boating in Jurong.

What about Buona Vista?