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Thread: Just 2 bids for Ten Mile Junction site

  1. #31
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Just 2 bids for Ten Mile Junction site

    My agent says price is moving up 5% since the announcement for Jurong Gateway. Tells me to hold and not to sell now.

  2. #32
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Just 2 bids for Ten Mile Junction site

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    While I am vested in property, I tend to think that there might be a supply glut coming up. Many new citizens are previously PR, so shouldn't double-count as well. Not all PRs buy properties in the end. Many are working here and do intend to go back to their country/other more prestigious countries after their working stints. I hope the government will review their GLS and release less land, because seriously, I don't think the market can absorb that kind of supply - looking at the home sales figures past few years (even with the PR numbers), the massive supply may outstrip demand come 2009. In fact, the impact is somewhat felt today already.
    I've also thought about the issue of "double counting", but upon careful analysis, no there isn't double counting.

    You see, the 17,000 Citizens could have been PRs in the past (in fact I think most people become PRs first before becoming Citizens) hence their PR membership is already accounted for in the number of new "PRs" in one of the earlier years.

    When they convert to citizens in 2007, they are classified under the 17,000 "PR converted to Citizens" whereas those 63,000 are "Foreigners converted to PRs".

    Some of these 63,000 my convert to citizens at a future date, but they will then be classified as "PR converted to Citizens" under a future year.

    Hence these figures are in a situation of steady state flow.

  3. #33
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Just 2 bids for Ten Mile Junction site

    Oh any comments on this observation from the expats forum? Seems a knowledgeable chap. Thanks buddy for educating us. I will delay my buying.


    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    I Re: Apartment sales slowing?
    « Reply #389 on: 18 March 2008, 23:13:57 PM » Quote

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Quote from: Kubes.SG on 18 March 2008, 23:04:49 PM

    The reason I am looking for some rational data-based economic basis for why values will boom again soon in Singapore is because I get nothing but the following soft baseless reasons, that don't link to any meaningful data:

    IRs are coming. Rich people will discover Singapore
    Singapore Flyer/Eye
    F1
    Youth Olympics
    Singapore Hub for everything
    Inflation is high and increasing in Singapore
    SGD is rising against USD
    India and China booming ecomony
    Singapore has limited land
    Population will increase to 6.5mln
    Financial/Media/Health Hub

    My points are the following:

    Singapore prime property is grossly overvalued, by historical and global standards - (don't look at the 1996 peak as the benchmark, look at the average of the last 20 years)

    Singapore's property cycle is 1-2 years of boom, followed by 1-2 years of decline then 2-5 years of stagnation

    About 30,000 new prime properties are booked to be completed by 2010, exceeding demand

    Possibly 50% of those were purchased by investors/speculators, many though DPS

    DPS entirely skewed the market by allowing speculators/developers/realtors to rapidly pump-up prices with very small financial commitment (2%-20%)

    Many of the speculators never planned to own the apartments they bought, but to flip them quickly

    With negagitve equity and being highly leverage speculators will be under massive stress. Some will walk, some will sell. Further reducing market prices and sentiment.

    Singapore's leadership are publicly bearish on the prime property market declaring prices will decline

    Sales of prime properties have collapsed over the in Jan and Feb to the lowest levels in 5 years (BT and ST this week)

    Market sentiment is at panic levels. External negative economic pressures and credit crunch is underway now in all developed economies - strong and weak. These will impact Singapore too.

    Asia has not "de-coupled" its economies from the US or WE. Singapore's exports indirectly still go mainly to the US. Consumption is till very low in Chinda. With recession in the US the reduced demand will still hit Singapre. Chinda owe Singapore nothing.

    Singapore's 2007Q4 GDP shrank 4.8% I fully expect that the SG.gov is currently pumping the local economy hard to avoid a technical recession.

    Singapore's productivity rates in 2007 declined by 0.9% - the greatest decline on record

    Latest population target is 5.5mln by 2040, or about 10,000 HH per year.

    Given current mix that means about 2,000 prime properties required per year

    Jobs growth is good, but it is largely at the lowest levels. In coming workers will not be able to live in prime property. Many incoming professionals will not be able to afford prime property rentals without correction

    Adam Smith's invisible hand of capitalism will play an influencing role in equalizing the balance




  4. #34
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Just 2 bids for Ten Mile Junction site

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Re: Singapore Property Prices Increasing
    « Reply #28 on: Today at 12:05:06 AM » Quote

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    If we look at statistics we must also look between the lines. Not only maths and physic apply here, let's apply history also.
    If you think the price will increase, how much more will it rise? Of course we have to factor in inflation, we cant deny that.

    However, we are talking about cyclic pattern here where prices go up and down not when we buy a property 20 years ago for $100,000 and now worth $500,000 or even 40 years ago when we paid only $20,000.

    Remember 1996? Property prices rose as if there was no tomorrow. Then came the crash and the rest was history. People who paid a million for their condominiums found that they suffered a paper loss in a matter of few months. Even today, they are still licking their wound.

    During the financial crisis, many lost their jobs and could not even afford to pay their maintenance fee and downgraded to HDB. Even HDB owners found the value of their homes dropped more than 30%. I have been looking for a replacement unit for the past year and knew the ground well. For the past three months, there were only 2 or 3 viewers compared to about 10 last June.

    For some properties, which I will not name, there is not a single viewer. Newly launched projects are only half taken up compared to last year when all units were sold as soon as they were launched. I have to add that most buyers are speculators then.

    I know of 1 project which was sold out as soon as it was launched and a property agent bought 16 units in the hope of flipping and earning a very fast buck. Good luck to him. This project TOP since last December but only half of it is occupied now (where are the owners?).

    Serious sellers are now willing to accept a lower price while speculators are the one who are still holding on to their high asking prices (good luck to them also).

    The only real buyers in the market now are people like me, the enbloc sellers who have 3 choices, namely, buy a HDB (majority did), a private property or rent.

    However, not all enbloc sellers are buying, mind you. Out of 48 owners in my development, a few of them own 2 units while 16 owners rented their units out as they have been living in other properties. When the site is redeveloped, there will be more than 70 units available.

    I am sure the same story applies to other developments as well. As long as there are still enbloc sellers looking for replacement units, there is still a demand.

    The question is, how long can enbloc sellers hold up the market? Dont forget, there is only 1 enbloc deal this year.
    More enblocs will come and enblocs will drive the market what.

  5. #35
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Just 2 bids for Ten Mile Junction site

    I have some questions for Mr. Expat Forum, can any kind soul here help me to convey?

    Quote Originally Posted by Expat Forum
    Singapore prime property is grossly overvalued, by historical and global standards - (don't look at the 1996 peak as the benchmark, look at the average of the last 20 years)
    I don't know what you mean by "overvalued". If you look at the average of the last 20 years, almost all global cities have gone up tremendously, not just Singapore.

    Bombay, Shanghai, London, New York, Hong Kong.

    If you look at Hong Kong's property market here:
    http://business.fullerton.edu/financ...05.337_356.pdf

    and Singapore's property market here:
    http://www.redas.com/einformation/mt...vtmeasures.pdf

    You can see that both Singapore and Hong Kong have gone up almost synchronously.

    London's property prices have also gone up by 279% in the last 10 years.
    http://www.easier.com/view/House_Pri...le-109868.html

    Hence can you tell me which major international city is not "overvalued" compared to their historical value?

    (Please exclude cities like Yangon, Kabul and Baghdad).

    Singapore's property cycle is 1-2 years of boom, followed by 1-2 years of decline then 2-5 years of stagnation
    Where did you get this idea from?

    Look at the following residential price chart from 1960 to 2006

    http://www.redas.com/einformation/mt...vtmeasures.pdf

    Did you see the continuous climb all the way from Q2 1986 (Index at 33.5 points) all the way to Q2 1996 (Index at 181.4 points). Exactly 10 years and a rise of 440%. Bull-run of the decade!

    What do you mean by 1-2 years of boom, followed by 1-2 years of decline?

    About 30,000 new prime properties are booked to be completed by 2010, exceeding demand
    Can you tell me how do you know that this supply of 30,000 has exceeded the demand?

    How did you work out the demand? What are the formulae and data you used to work out the demand?

    What exactly is the demand?

    Possibly 50% of those were purchased by investors/speculators, many though DPS

    DPS entirely skewed the market by allowing speculators/developers/realtors to rapidly pump-up prices with very small financial commitment (2%-20%)

    Many of the speculators never planned to own the apartments they bought, but to flip them quickly

    With negagitve equity and being highly leverage speculators will be under massive stress. Some will walk, some will sell. Further reducing market prices and sentiment.
    Why should the speculators be under "massive stress"? The apartments can easily be rented out.

    Don't forget that all the projects coming up TOP this year were bought in 2005, when the price was only 50% of what it is today.

    With a rental yield of around 5% (based on current prices) and a mortgage interest rate of only 3%, the bank is subsidising borrowers to the tune of 2% p.a.

    For those who've bought 3 years ago at half price (compared to today), that's a yeild of 10% versus a mortgage interest of 3%, the bank is subsidising borrowers to the tune of 7%.

    Furthermore, rentals are expected to continue to rise due to the influx of foreingers. Read the following article:

    "HDB, private apartment rentals set to rise

    By Wong Siew Ying, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 03 April 2008 0050 hrs
    SINGAPORE : Rentals for HDB and mass market private apartments are set to rise in the coming years, with more foreign workers heading for Singapore."


    If it looks familiar, it's because it's the title for one of the threads in this forum. Go and read the full article over there.

    Please explain where is the "massive stress" coming from?

    Is getting 7% p.a. from the bank stressful? Are you referring to the "massive stress" of having too much money?

    Singapore's leadership are publicly bearish on the prime property market declaring prices will decline
    That is really strange!

    MM Lee just said during Chinese New Year on 11 Feb 2008 that "By 2011, the Marina Bay Area will be splendid, especially a water plaza, surrounded by a promenade fronting financial centres, integrated resorts, residential condominiums, food and beverages outlets, an enchanting sight to behold. It will be a unique city centre. We will not leave our heartlands behind. All new towns will be upgraded and beautified. The massive new investments in infrastructure and beautification, plus a steadily growing economy, with higher incomes, will keep property values going up."

    You can read his full speech here:

    http://app.sprinter.gov.sg/data/pr/20080211985.htm

    May I ask whether MM Lee is considered part of "Singapore's leadership"?

    Sales of prime properties have collapsed over the in Jan and Feb to the lowest levels in 5 years (BT and ST this week)

    Market sentiment is at panic levels. External negative economic pressures and credit crunch is underway now in all developed economies - strong and weak. These will impact Singapore too.
    If sentiment is at "panic level", why then does the URA property price index rise 6.6% in Q4 2007 and then another 4.2% in Q1 2008?

    http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/text/2008/pr08-35.html

    Remember that all these happened after the U.S. subprime had started.

    If sentiment is at "panic level", then prices should decrease, instead of increase. Are you referring to "panic level" of the buyers, or "panic level" of the sellers?

    Asia has not "de-coupled" its economies from the US or WE. Singapore's exports indirectly still go mainly to the US. Consumption is till very low in Chinda. With recession in the US the reduced demand will still hit Singapre. Chinda owe Singapore nothing.

    Singapore's 2007Q4 GDP shrank 4.8% I fully expect that the SG.gov is currently pumping the local economy hard to avoid a technical recession.

    Singapore's productivity rates in 2007 declined by 0.9% - the greatest decline on record

    According to the Ministry of Trade and Industry, "Singapore growth slows to 6.0% in fourth quarter"

    Even "On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualised basis, real GDP fell by 3.2 per cent in the quarter compared with a 4.4 per cent gain in the preceding quarter, reflecting a slowdown in the manufacturing sector".

    May I known where did you get the figure "shrank 4.8%" from?

    http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...320244/1/.html

    Latest population target is 5.5mln by 2040, or about 10,000 HH per year.

    Given current mix that means about 2,000 prime properties required per year

    Jobs growth is good, but it is largely at the lowest levels. In coming workers will not be able to live in prime property. Many incoming professionals will not be able to afford prime property rentals without correction

    Adam Smith's invisible hand of capitalism will play an influencing role in equalizing the balance
    What you mean by "Jobs growth is good, but it is largely at the lowest levels. In coming workers will not be able to live in prime property. Many incoming professionals will not be able to afford prime property rentals"?

    Read the following article:

    Steaming demand for senior private bankers
    7 February 2007

    UBS isn't the only one beefing up its senior private banking ranks in Singapore.

    The Swiss bank relocated Carlo Grigioni, its formerly Swiss-based global head of private wealth management, to Singapore this month.

    Pay for these top individuals is generous – the salary for the average private banker is around S$300k (US$195k). But it can reach considerably more than that. "Last year we came across a few candidates who will hit S$700k to $800k in total compensation," says Koh.


    http://news.efinancialcareers.sg/NEW...ewsItemId-9212

    Do you think that with a salary of S$300k to $800k per year, these "low level workers" will be able to live in prime properties?

  6. #36
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Just 2 bids for Ten Mile Junction site

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    My agent says price is moving up 5% since the announcement for Jurong Gateway. Tells me to hold and not to sell now.
    According to quite a few "experts" on this board the cannons are still booming. I just hope they are not confusing it with the big thuds of speculators jumping from high rises.

  7. #37
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Just 2 bids for Ten Mile Junction site

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    According to quite a few "experts" on this board the cannons are still booming. I just hope they are not confusing it with the big thuds of speculators jumping from high rises.
    You are right. The thuds are echoing throughout the island as they rush for the exits. Many are being trampled. The thuds would get softer as they land on fellow speculators rushing for the exits.

  8. #38
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Just 2 bids for Ten Mile Junction site

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    April 6, 2008

    PROPERTY

    7 signs of a property slowdown

    Buyers seem to be gaining ground again in the private homes market but consultants say it's far from crashing yet

    By Joyce Teo, Property Correspondent


    After rocketing to dizzying heights last year, the private homes market has stalled because of the global credit crunch - an external factor that took the market by surprise.

    The withdrawal of the deferred payment scheme last year has also dampened demand somewhat.

    Sales volumes and interest have fizzled out just as quickly as the market surged last year.

    While many players hang on to the notion that strong fundamentals - low interest rates, for instance - will support the market, sentiment has fast melted away.

    Is the property market slowing to a crawl? We examine the mounting evidence.

    1 Growth in home prices weakens

    The Urban Redevelopment Authority's (URA's) early estimate of first-quarter data showed a 4.2 per cent rise in private home prices against 6.8 per cent in the previous quarter and 31 per cent last year.

    Consultants expect price growth to weaken. Prices, especially for high-end homes, might fall but not significantly as sellers are still reluctant to accept lower prices, said a seasoned property agent. 'There's no urgency to do so.'

    2 Launches are held back

    Developers have ample properties to sell but most continue to hold back launches. Some small ones have gone ahead but the response has been unimpressive.

    With buyers and sellers choosing to remain on the sidelines as the global impact of a slowing United States economy remains uncertain, the market is largely quiet.

    URA data showed that only 185 new private homes were sold in February, down from 328 in January. Last year, developers sold 14,811 new homes.

    3 Collective sales have died down

    This market is dead, for now at least, as developers stay away and new rules make it tougher for owners to sell en bloc.

    So far this year, only one sale has been done compared with 26 in the first quarter of last year.

    And one potential sale - that of Makeway View in Newton - was cancelled after the buyer, Bravo Building Construction, said it had found out that it would have to pay a higher-than-expected development charge.

    Owners of some estates are starting to lower their price expectations.

    Pinetree Condominium in Balmoral Park, for instance, was recently relaunched at a lower indicative price of $128 million - down from around $145 million last September, but still well above the 2006 price tag of $59 million.

    4 Investor funds pull out or hold off

    Islamic investment bank Kuwait Finance House, which agreed last December to buy 97 Goodwood Residence units for $818.4 million from GuocoLand, allowed the purchase option to lapse.

    Both parties said last month that they were still in talks but did not provide clear reasons for the pullout. Industry sources had speculated that the fund's price - a record for the condo's area - was too high.

    A recent DTZ Research report said some funds are holding off making investments, at least for the first half of this year, until the extent of the US slowdown and its global impact become clearer.

    5 Sellers hand out discounts galore

    In the resale market, sellers are getting more flexible. There are more desperate sellers in the market this year, property agents said.

    Some want to sell one or two of their properties because they had bought some units under the deferred payment scheme, and payment is due in six months to a year, one agent said.

    For new launches or sales of new units, some developers are also willing to give discounts when asked, while others offer stamp duty rebates to attract buyers.

    6 Agents less sought after, ads dwindle

    Property agents have more free time and are taking out fewer advertisements because of the poor response.

    Last year, a seller's unit could be marketed by five to six agents, with the deal going to the agent who garnered the best price.

    But this year, a seller might go with one agent, said HSR Property Group's executive director, Mr Eric Cheng.

    On average, an ad for a reasonably priced unit could attract 12 to 15 calls last year. That is now down by half, he said. Prime, high-end homes have it worse, he added, noting that there could be no calls at all for some ads.

    'I have not been advertising since Nov 15 because I could see sales volume falling,' said agent Andrew Soh.

    7 Buyers toss in low bids to test the waters

    Some developers have offered rather low bids in recent land tenders, which signals a slowing property market.

    The Government in mid-March decided not to award a landed housing site in Jurong West as the bids were too low.

    Then, the lowest bid for a Yishun condo site came in at just $95 per sq ft of potential gross floor area.

    'The developers are pricing in the risks of falling prices,' said Knight Frank's director for consultancy and research, Mr Nicholas Mak.

    'Given thin volume, they could also be hoping that there is no competition.'

    Going forward, optimistic players are waiting for the market to regain some of its former glory in the next six months.

    The pessimistic ones are prepared to ride out the whole year and possibly the next.

    'If volume remains thin, there is a chance that private home prices might weaken this year, but the market is not expected to crash,' said Mr Mak.
    The 8th sign is the loud thuds heard due to speculators jumping off high rises.

  9. #39
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Just 2 bids for Ten Mile Junction site

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    You are right. The thuds are echoing throughout the island as they rush for the exits. Many are being trampled. The thuds would get softer as they land on fellow speculators rushing for the exits.
    Then can you explain why the URA residential price index still rose 4.2% in Q1 2008?

    Sour grapes have been predicting "rush for exits" since the sub prime problem started around July last year.

    Reminder. Now is April 2008, in another three months we're going to celebrate 1st anniversay of sub prime.

    That means sour grapes have been saying the "crash" for almost one anniversary already ...

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