End of property boom in sight?

[Unregistered]

Dow Heading For 16,000, Richard Band Says Rolling Eyes
Mark Hulbert
Dow Jones
Anandale, Virginia, U.S.
Friday, 28 March 2008, 12:58 AM U.S. EST

Richard Band is not someone who makes outlandish predictions just to get headlines.

So I sat up and took notice earlier this week when he wrote to subscribers of his Profitable Investing newsletter that the stock market was ready to "rocket higher" in an "uptrend that could carry the blue chip indexes to all-time highs by late 2008 or early 2009. Dow 16,000 here we come!"

The Hulbert Financial Digest (HFD) has been tracking Band's newsletter since the beginning of 1991. Over the subsequent 17 years, his recommended portfolio has been 35% less volatile than the overall stock market, as measured by relative volatilities. To use a baseball analogy, this shows that Band is more inclined to try to get a base hit than he is to attempt to belt a home run.

Band's conservative approach is crucial to properly interpreting his newsletter's performance. According to the HFD, the newsletter's model portfolios on average have produced an 8.6% annualized return since the beginning of 1991, in contrast to 10.9% annualized for the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index (DWC). But with only two thirds as much risk, we should expect some below-market return.

It turns out that, upon risk-adjusting his newsletter's performance, it equals that of the market itself. That's good enough to place it in the upper echelon of newsletters over this period, and another reason to give weight to his forecast.

Technical factors appear to have led Band to make such a bold prediction, which amounts to a 33% return for the overall market over the next 12 months.

The first has to do with the stock market's internal characteristics when it hit a low earlier this month. Band argues that that low possessed "many striking technical resemblances to the great bear market bottoms of the past."

To be sure, Band wrote that on Tuesday night, and since then the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) has dropped 230 points.

But Band says he is not particularly worried. On Thursday night, he told subscribers not to let "Mr. Market wear you out!"

Band continued: "We're in a critical stage for stocks right now, what technical analysts call the 'right shoulder' of a head-and-shoulders bottom. The left shoulder formed on March 10, when the Standard & Poor's 500 index (SPX) touched its closing low for the year (so far) at 1273.37. The upside-down head came on March 17, when the index broke to a new low intraday but finished at 1276.60, slightly above the March 10 close. Now we're sliding down again to complete the right shoulder of the pattern. If all goes well, the S&P should remain comfortably above the two previous closing lows. Then we can rocket higher in April."

Band adds that when the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders bottom is forming, "the biggest temptation for investors is to throw up their hands and say, 'This market will never go up. It's doomed.' Don't make that mistake. A very powerful and durable rally is in the works. But it may need another couple of days to lift off. Hold the fort and keep the faith!"

Band is recommending several exchange-traded funds and one open-end mutual fund for subscribers who want to increase their equity exposure: The iShares Russell 1000 Growth Fund (IWF), the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund (EEM), and Selected American Shares (SLASX).

Wow! This rally is a small one. A big one is coming. Get ready!

[Unregistered]

Property market may stay quiet for up to a year

Home prices, sales could remain weak as US sub-prime concerns linger

By Fiona Chan, Property Reporter


A MONTH ago, property consultants were predicting that the cooling market would pick up after June. That optimism has fast drained away.

Consultants now expect home prices and sales to remain weak for up to a year from now, after official estimates yesterday confirmed that price growth was tapering off.

'We can expect residential prices to continue weakening over the next 12 months', in the light of the United States sub-prime debacle and an expected US recession, said Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL).

Other consultancies, such as CB Richard Ellis Research, believe price growth will slow further in the second quarter, to '1 per cent or 2 per cent'.

Home sales are also plunging as buyers retreat - and they are expected to stay low as sellers dig in their heels to wait out the slowdown.

New home sales were likely to have dropped in the first quarter to one of the lowest levels ever, second only to those recorded during the Sars period.

In the secondary market, sales have fallen to 2005 levels, according to estimates from Savills Singapore.

Mid-tier private properties on the city fringe, such as in Novena, Toa Payoh, Marine Parade and Queenstown, are likely to be hardest hit by falling buyer demand.

These areas saw the biggest slowdown in price growth in the first 10 weeks of the year, suggesting that prices in these regions may be peaking, said JLL.

Buyers in these areas have shallower pockets and are more sensitive to market sentiment, it added.

In the HDB segment, prices have stabilised at about $50,000 cash over valuation or less, said Mr Eugene Lim, assistant vice-president at ERA Realty Network.

'Resale flats priced higher than that take much longer to sell or may not sell at all.'

Phillip Securities Research, meanwhile, aired concerns over the 'huge supply' of homes due to be completed in the next two years.

Supply is 'expected to exceed the demand from buyers and result in a slide in local property prices from 2010', it said.

HDB plans to release another 5,000 new build-to-order flats in the next six months. There are also 64,900 private homes in the pipeline, of which 90 per cent will be completed by 2011, while 60 per cent have yet to be sold.

Most experts believe, however, that confidence and demand will return by year-end - as long as the Singapore economy stays robust.

'Sellers now take a while to sell their homes, but there are still buyers,' said Mr Eric Cheng, the executive director of HSR property group.

'Last year, it took maybe a month to sell a home. Now, it takes two months. But in 2000 or 2002, it took a year,' he said.

[Unregistered]

Property market may stay quiet for up to a year

Home prices, sales could remain weak as US sub-prime concerns linger

By Fiona Chan, Property Reporter


A MONTH ago, property consultants were predicting that the cooling market would pick up after June. That optimism has fast drained away.

Consultants now expect home prices and sales to remain weak for up to a year from now, after official estimates yesterday confirmed that price growth was tapering off.

'We can expect residential prices to continue weakening over the next 12 months', in the light of the United States sub-prime debacle and an expected US recession, said Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL).

Other consultancies, such as CB Richard Ellis Research, believe price growth will slow further in the second quarter, to '1 per cent or 2 per cent'.

Home sales are also plunging as buyers retreat - and they are expected to stay low as sellers dig in their heels to wait out the slowdown.

New home sales were likely to have dropped in the first quarter to one of the lowest levels ever, second only to those recorded during the Sars period.

In the secondary market, sales have fallen to 2005 levels, according to estimates from Savills Singapore.

Mid-tier private properties on the city fringe, such as in Novena, Toa Payoh, Marine Parade and Queenstown, are likely to be hardest hit by falling buyer demand.

These areas saw the biggest slowdown in price growth in the first 10 weeks of the year, suggesting that prices in these regions may be peaking, said JLL.

Buyers in these areas have shallower pockets and are more sensitive to market sentiment, it added.

In the HDB segment, prices have stabilised at about $50,000 cash over valuation or less, said Mr Eugene Lim, assistant vice-president at ERA Realty Network.

'Resale flats priced higher than that take much longer to sell or may not sell at all.'

Phillip Securities Research, meanwhile, aired concerns over the 'huge supply' of homes due to be completed in the next two years.

Supply is 'expected to exceed the demand from buyers and result in a slide in local property prices from 2010', it said.

HDB plans to release another 5,000 new build-to-order flats in the next six months. There are also 64,900 private homes in the pipeline, of which 90 per cent will be completed by 2011, while 60 per cent have yet to be sold.

Most experts believe, however, that confidence and demand will return by year-end - as long as the Singapore economy stays robust.

'Sellers now take a while to sell their homes, but there are still buyers,' said Mr Eric Cheng, the executive director of HSR property group.

'Last year, it took maybe a month to sell a home. Now, it takes two months. But in 2000 or 2002, it took a year,' he said.

OH MY GOD SECONDARY MARKET SALES BACK TO 2005 LEVELS. THIS IS ASTONISHING. SPECKYS GETTING FRIED.

[Unregistered]

OH MY GOD SECONDARY MARKET SALES BACK TO 2005 LEVELS. THIS IS ASTONISHING. SPECKYS GETTING FRIED.

You thought it was going back because of the US sub-prime concern but things have since changed.

Now that the US sub-prime concern is going away, the secondary market sales will continue to move up.
The US sub-prime problem is there but the concern is going away.

If the concern remain, perhaps the secondary market sales may go back to 2005 level. Now that it is going away, it will continue to move up.

Bank news and economic data boosts stocks to a big rally
Joe Bel Bruno
Business Writer
Associated Press
New York, New York, U.S.
Tuesday, 1 April 2008, 7:31PM U.S. EDT


Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange April 1, 2008. U.S. stocks extended gains on Tuesday, lifting the benchmarks S&P 500 and the NASDAQ up more than 3% as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s move to bolster its balance sheet calmed worries about the financial sector's stability. - Photo: Brendan McDermid, AP

Wall Street began the second quarter with a big rally Tuesday as investors rushed back into stocks, optimistic that the worst of the credit crisis has passed and that the economy is faring better than expected. The Dow Jones industrials surged nearly 400 points, and all the major indexes were up more than 3%.

Financial stocks were among the big winners after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Switzerland's UBS AG issued new shares to help bolster their balance sheets. With that upbeat news and a fresh quarter ahead of them, investors appear quite willing to make some bets that the worst of the damage from the nation's credit struggles has been felt. Moreover, the banks' moves buttressed the view that financial services companies are taking aggressive action to improve their capital bases and stave off the potential of a collapse similar to Bear Stearns Cos.

Analysts believe there must be a recovery in bank and brokerages to lead major stock indexes higher. Some of the biggest financial players had their sharpest moves of the year Tuesday — Citigroup Inc. shot up 11%, JPMorgan Chase & Co. rose 9%, and Lehman surged 18%.

"Investors have a difficult time making decisions about the stock market if they don't have confidence in major financial institutions, so there's been a lot of sideline cash," said Richard Cripps, chief market strategist for Stifel Nicolaus. "The extreme conditions that we've seen here over the past few months has been missing that confidence ... but that appears to be changing, and we're seeing the response."

Meanwhile, Wall Street got another boost when the Institute for Supply Management said its March index of national manufacturing activity rose to a reading of 48.6 — indicating a contraction, but a slower one than in February and tamer than many analysts had predicted. Government data on construction spending for February also came in better than expected.

The Dow rose 391.47, or 3.19 percent, to 12,654.36. It marked the eighth-biggest point gain ever for the Dow, and the third time in two weeks it came close to or surpassed 400 points.

Broader stock indicators also gained sharply. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 47.48, or 3.59%, to 1,370.18 — the index's best start to a second quarter since 1938. And, the Nasdaq composite index rose 83.65, or 3.67%, to 2,362.75.

The advance was in contrast to a lackluster session on Monday, where stocks managed a moderate gain in the final session of a dismal first quarter. Major indexes ended the first three months of 2008 with massive losses, marking the worst period since the third quarter of 2002 when Wall Street was approaching the lowest point of a protracted bear market.

Renewed enthusiasm that the credit crisis might be waning was also felt in the Treasury market, where government securities fell as investors withdrew money to take bets on stocks. The 10-year Treasury note's yield, which moves opposite its price, rose to 3.55% from 3.43% late Monday. The yield edged up to 3.56% in after-hours trading.

In addition to hopes about the financial sector, Wall Street was relieved to see the feeble dollar regain some strength against the euro. The euro fell to $1.5596 from $1.5785 late Monday in New York.

And there was also optimism that commodities prices, which have hit historic highs in recent months, have begun to retreat. Crude fell 60 cents to settle at $100.98 on the New York Mercantile Exchange after earlier falling below $100. Meanwhile, gold dropped back below $900 an ounce.

"This is a nice way to begin the second quarter," said Todd Leone, managing director of equity trading at Cowen & Co. "All the financials are up big, and there's a sense that things are turning. We definitely have not seen the last of the credit crisis, but we're getting closer."

The stock rally was underpinned by the announcements from UBS and Lehman Brothers that they are boosting capital by issuing new stock. Shares of banks and brokerages hovered near multiyear lows in recent months as investors feared heavy losses from investments tied to subprime mortgages would be overwhelming.

Earlier this month, widespread concerns about Bear Stearns' financial position forced the investment bank to sell itself to JPMorgan in a deal engineered by the Federal Reserve — and that stoked fears that other investment houses might follow.

JPMorgan rose $4.05, or 9.4%, to $47; while Bear Stearns was up 36 cents, or 3.4%, to $10.85 — slightly above the $10 per share acquisition price.

UBS, one of Europe's biggest banks, said it will issue up to $15 billion in new stock and that its chairman, Marcel Ospel, had quit. Investors chose to look past the bank's announcement that it will take a fresh $19 billion write-down due to additional declines in the value of its mortgage assets and other credit instruments, following an $18 billion write-down last year. Its shares surged $4.21, or 14.6%, to $33.01 in trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

Lehman Brothers, dogged by speculation it might reveal losses big enough to cripple the company, on Tuesday raised $4 billion of capital to stymie questions about its financial stability. Lehman rose $6.70, or 17.8%, to $44.34.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 22.68, or 3.30%, to 710.65.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about 4 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated volume came to a heavy 4.65 billion shares, compared to 4.02 billion on Monday.

In overseas trade, Tokyo's Nikkei closed up 1.04%. There were gains in Europe too, with London's FTSE rising 2.64%, Frankfurt's DAX gaining 2.84% and Paris' CAC 40 advancing 3.38%.

[Unregistered]

OH MY GOD SECONDARY MARKET SALES BACK TO 2005 LEVELS. THIS IS ASTONISHING. SPECKYS GETTING FRIED.

sales lah, not price!
low volume, price increases....to last for 1 year, not bad!
1 year later, price already up another 20% if continues this way.
Hold on to your property, rent out for high yield.

[Unregistered]

Property market may stay quiet for up to a year

Home prices, sales could remain weak as US sub-prime concerns linger

By Fiona Chan, Property Reporter


A MONTH ago, property consultants were predicting that the cooling market would pick up after June. That optimism has fast drained away.

Consultants now expect home prices and sales to remain weak for up to a year from now, after official estimates yesterday confirmed that price growth was tapering off.

'We can expect residential prices to continue weakening over the next 12 months', in the light of the United States sub-prime debacle and an expected US recession, said Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL).

Other consultancies, such as CB Richard Ellis Research, believe price growth will slow further in the second quarter, to '1 per cent or 2 per cent'.

Home sales are also plunging as buyers retreat - and they are expected to stay low as sellers dig in their heels to wait out the slowdown.

New home sales were likely to have dropped in the first quarter to one of the lowest levels ever, second only to those recorded during the Sars period.

In the secondary market, sales have fallen to 2005 levels, according to estimates from Savills Singapore.

Mid-tier private properties on the city fringe, such as in Novena, Toa Payoh, Marine Parade and Queenstown, are likely to be hardest hit by falling buyer demand.

These areas saw the biggest slowdown in price growth in the first 10 weeks of the year, suggesting that prices in these regions may be peaking, said JLL.

Buyers in these areas have shallower pockets and are more sensitive to market sentiment, it added.

In the HDB segment, prices have stabilised at about $50,000 cash over valuation or less, said Mr Eugene Lim, assistant vice-president at ERA Realty Network.

'Resale flats priced higher than that take much longer to sell or may not sell at all.'

Phillip Securities Research, meanwhile, aired concerns over the 'huge supply' of homes due to be completed in the next two years.

Supply is 'expected to exceed the demand from buyers and result in a slide in local property prices from 2010', it said.

HDB plans to release another 5,000 new build-to-order flats in the next six months. There are also 64,900 private homes in the pipeline, of which 90 per cent will be completed by 2011, while 60 per cent have yet to be sold.

Most experts believe, however, that confidence and demand will return by year-end - as long as the Singapore economy stays robust.

'Sellers now take a while to sell their homes, but there are still buyers,' said Mr Eric Cheng, the executive director of HSR property group.

'Last year, it took maybe a month to sell a home. Now, it takes two months. But in 2000 or 2002, it took a year,' he said.

pretty dangerous for those holding and speculating. better to sell and make some profit before everything vapourises. i am off calling my agent to dump the last few units......

[Unregistered]

pretty dangerous for those holding and speculating. better to sell and make some profit before everything vapourises. i am off calling my agent to dump the last few units......

Dump the last few units of outdoor tents?

We know you are poor and couldn't afford to buy condo. That's why you are very jealous of the condo owners. We didn't know you have no house to stay and live in tent.

Don't waste time here. Go work harder so that you can buy a house.

[Unregistered]

You thought it was going back because of the US sub-prime concern but things have since changed.

Now that the US sub-prime concern is going away, the secondary market sales will continue to move up.
The US sub-prime problem is there but the concern is going away.

If the concern remain, perhaps the secondary market sales may go back to 2005 level. Now that it is going away, it will continue to move up.

Bank news and economic data boosts stocks to a big rally
Joe Bel Bruno
Business Writer
Associated Press
New York, New York, U.S.
Tuesday, 1 April 2008, 7:31PM U.S. EDT


Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange April 1, 2008. U.S. stocks extended gains on Tuesday, lifting the benchmarks S&P 500 and the NASDAQ up more than 3% as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s move to bolster its balance sheet calmed worries about the financial sector's stability. - Photo: Brendan McDermid, AP

Wall Street began the second quarter with a big rally Tuesday as investors rushed back into stocks, optimistic that the worst of the credit crisis has passed and that the economy is faring better than expected. The Dow Jones industrials surged nearly 400 points, and all the major indexes were up more than 3%.

Financial stocks were among the big winners after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Switzerland's UBS AG issued new shares to help bolster their balance sheets. With that upbeat news and a fresh quarter ahead of them, investors appear quite willing to make some bets that the worst of the damage from the nation's credit struggles has been felt. Moreover, the banks' moves buttressed the view that financial services companies are taking aggressive action to improve their capital bases and stave off the potential of a collapse similar to Bear Stearns Cos.

Analysts believe there must be a recovery in bank and brokerages to lead major stock indexes higher. Some of the biggest financial players had their sharpest moves of the year Tuesday — Citigroup Inc. shot up 11%, JPMorgan Chase & Co. rose 9%, and Lehman surged 18%.

"Investors have a difficult time making decisions about the stock market if they don't have confidence in major financial institutions, so there's been a lot of sideline cash," said Richard Cripps, chief market strategist for Stifel Nicolaus. "The extreme conditions that we've seen here over the past few months has been missing that confidence ... but that appears to be changing, and we're seeing the response."

Meanwhile, Wall Street got another boost when the Institute for Supply Management said its March index of national manufacturing activity rose to a reading of 48.6 — indicating a contraction, but a slower one than in February and tamer than many analysts had predicted. Government data on construction spending for February also came in better than expected.

The Dow rose 391.47, or 3.19 percent, to 12,654.36. It marked the eighth-biggest point gain ever for the Dow, and the third time in two weeks it came close to or surpassed 400 points.

Broader stock indicators also gained sharply. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 47.48, or 3.59%, to 1,370.18 — the index's best start to a second quarter since 1938. And, the Nasdaq composite index rose 83.65, or 3.67%, to 2,362.75.

The advance was in contrast to a lackluster session on Monday, where stocks managed a moderate gain in the final session of a dismal first quarter. Major indexes ended the first three months of 2008 with massive losses, marking the worst period since the third quarter of 2002 when Wall Street was approaching the lowest point of a protracted bear market.

Renewed enthusiasm that the credit crisis might be waning was also felt in the Treasury market, where government securities fell as investors withdrew money to take bets on stocks. The 10-year Treasury note's yield, which moves opposite its price, rose to 3.55% from 3.43% late Monday. The yield edged up to 3.56% in after-hours trading.

In addition to hopes about the financial sector, Wall Street was relieved to see the feeble dollar regain some strength against the euro. The euro fell to $1.5596 from $1.5785 late Monday in New York.

And there was also optimism that commodities prices, which have hit historic highs in recent months, have begun to retreat. Crude fell 60 cents to settle at $100.98 on the New York Mercantile Exchange after earlier falling below $100. Meanwhile, gold dropped back below $900 an ounce.

"This is a nice way to begin the second quarter," said Todd Leone, managing director of equity trading at Cowen & Co. "All the financials are up big, and there's a sense that things are turning. We definitely have not seen the last of the credit crisis, but we're getting closer."

The stock rally was underpinned by the announcements from UBS and Lehman Brothers that they are boosting capital by issuing new stock. Shares of banks and brokerages hovered near multiyear lows in recent months as investors feared heavy losses from investments tied to subprime mortgages would be overwhelming.

Earlier this month, widespread concerns about Bear Stearns' financial position forced the investment bank to sell itself to JPMorgan in a deal engineered by the Federal Reserve — and that stoked fears that other investment houses might follow.

JPMorgan rose $4.05, or 9.4%, to $47; while Bear Stearns was up 36 cents, or 3.4%, to $10.85 — slightly above the $10 per share acquisition price.

UBS, one of Europe's biggest banks, said it will issue up to $15 billion in new stock and that its chairman, Marcel Ospel, had quit. Investors chose to look past the bank's announcement that it will take a fresh $19 billion write-down due to additional declines in the value of its mortgage assets and other credit instruments, following an $18 billion write-down last year. Its shares surged $4.21, or 14.6%, to $33.01 in trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

Lehman Brothers, dogged by speculation it might reveal losses big enough to cripple the company, on Tuesday raised $4 billion of capital to stymie questions about its financial stability. Lehman rose $6.70, or 17.8%, to $44.34.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 22.68, or 3.30%, to 710.65.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about 4 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated volume came to a heavy 4.65 billion shares, compared to 4.02 billion on Monday.

In overseas trade, Tokyo's Nikkei closed up 1.04%. There were gains in Europe too, with London's FTSE rising 2.64%, Frankfurt's DAX gaining 2.84% and Paris' CAC 40 advancing 3.38%.

Anyway, even if the US sub-prime concern come back, which is unlikely, it is the secondary sales volume that may drop. The price index will continue to go up.

[Unregistered]

ARDMORE II highest transacstion was about $3000-$3500 psf last year.

Now see newspaper and there are a number of agents selling at discount $2500-$2600 yet unsold after 1-2months of advertising.

Why?
You explain lah.

If you are sure it will increase you buy lah.

$3500-$2500=$1000 difference leh

How many % you calculate yourself lah.

[Unregistered]

The last two times property went up in Singapore this fast, it came down equally fast and to the same low levels.

I would not be surprised to see panic sellers in the market trying to sell their units before all the new condo units (30K+) come out of the pipeline.

Crash has happened before, it can happen again, the situation is very similar.

[Unregistered]

ARDMORE II highest transacstion was about $3000-$3500 psf last year.

Now see newspaper and there are a number of agents selling at discount $2500-$2600 yet unsold after 1-2months of advertising.

Why?
You explain lah.

If you are sure it will increase you buy lah.

$3500-$2500=$1000 difference leh

How many % you calculate yourself lah.

Why different units?
You explain lah.

[Unregistered]

Why different units?
You explain lah.

Checked already $2600 neg mid floor. Buy lah. Cheap you know and still nego somemore. considering higest transaction of 3500psf top floor and given $2600psf on mid floor. Thats still a big difference.

[Unregistered]

Checked already $2600 neg mid floor. Buy lah. Cheap you know and still nego somemore. considering higest transaction of 3500psf top floor and given $2600psf on mid floor. Thats still a big difference.

Oh my God even with huge discounts can't sell.

[Unregistered]

Checked already $2600 neg mid floor. Buy lah. Cheap you know and still nego somemore. considering higest transaction of 3500psf top floor and given $2600psf on mid floor. Thats still a big difference.

Thanks for the explanation on the price difference.

[Unregistered]

Property market may stay quiet for up to a year

Home prices, sales could remain weak as US sub-prime concerns linger

By Fiona Chan, Property Reporter


A MONTH ago, property consultants were predicting that the cooling market would pick up after June. That optimism has fast drained away.

Consultants now expect home prices and sales to remain weak for up to a year from now, after official estimates yesterday confirmed that price growth was tapering off.

'We can expect residential prices to continue weakening over the next 12 months', in the light of the United States sub-prime debacle and an expected US recession, said Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL).

Other consultancies, such as CB Richard Ellis Research, believe price growth will slow further in the second quarter, to '1 per cent or 2 per cent'.

Home sales are also plunging as buyers retreat - and they are expected to stay low as sellers dig in their heels to wait out the slowdown.

New home sales were likely to have dropped in the first quarter to one of the lowest levels ever, second only to those recorded during the Sars period.

In the secondary market, sales have fallen to 2005 levels, according to estimates from Savills Singapore.

Mid-tier private properties on the city fringe, such as in Novena, Toa Payoh, Marine Parade and Queenstown, are likely to be hardest hit by falling buyer demand.

These areas saw the biggest slowdown in price growth in the first 10 weeks of the year, suggesting that prices in these regions may be peaking, said JLL.

Buyers in these areas have shallower pockets and are more sensitive to market sentiment, it added.

In the HDB segment, prices have stabilised at about $50,000 cash over valuation or less, said Mr Eugene Lim, assistant vice-president at ERA Realty Network.

'Resale flats priced higher than that take much longer to sell or may not sell at all.'

Phillip Securities Research, meanwhile, aired concerns over the 'huge supply' of homes due to be completed in the next two years.

Supply is 'expected to exceed the demand from buyers and result in a slide in local property prices from 2010', it said.

HDB plans to release another 5,000 new build-to-order flats in the next six months. There are also 64,900 private homes in the pipeline, of which 90 per cent will be completed by 2011, while 60 per cent have yet to be sold.

Most experts believe, however, that confidence and demand will return by year-end - as long as the Singapore economy stays robust.

'Sellers now take a while to sell their homes, but there are still buyers,' said Mr Eric Cheng, the executive director of HSR property group.

'Last year, it took maybe a month to sell a home. Now, it takes two months. But in 2000 or 2002, it took a year,' he said.

Oh now still can sell in two months lah...not to worry.

[Unregistered]

The last two times property went up in Singapore this fast, it came down equally fast and to the same low levels.

I would not be surprised to see panic sellers in the market trying to sell their units before all the new condo units (30K+) come out of the pipeline.

Crash has happened before, it can happen again, the situation is very similar.

It may happen. I just spoken to one banker at posb and he said at the end of the year there are a number of speculators selling most of their units. Hmm, Supply exceeds deman liao.

[Unregistered]

Thanks for the explanation on the price difference.

You believe him? Not more than 300psf difference it should be. You dont have to be a rocket scientist to know the reason for the huge difference.

[Unregistered]

You believe him? Not more than 300psf difference it should be. You dont have to be a rocket scientist to know the reason for the huge difference.

That he bullshitted us?

[Unregistered]

The last two times property went up in Singapore this fast, it came down equally fast and to the same low levels.

I would not be surprised to see panic sellers in the market trying to sell their units before all the new condo units (30K+) come out of the pipeline.

Crash has happened before, it can happen again, the situation is very similar.

I suggest that you sell your house (if you have any) now and buy back later since you are so confident that price is going to come down.
I'm most welcome you to be my tenant to pay my low interest motgage.

[blackjack21trader]

I can't help from your discussions here that you are all property traders. Many are talking about short term gains and losses. Please note that as traders like me, you will be taxed heavily on your transactions.

[Unregistered]

in 2009 and 2010 a lot of development will be toped. I mean many many you know. It will then we see a lot of units dont have thier light on at night due to over supply.
Not only that, condo in prime district must pay about $900 monthly fee and have to pay tax some more. It was then many speculator realise it is a big expense if the unit is unrented.

[Unregistered]

It may happen. I just spoken to one banker at posb and he said at the end of the year there are a number of speculators selling most of their units. Hmm, Supply exceeds deman liao.

POSB Banker timid banker la, no points talking to him

[Unregistered]

Property market may stay quiet for up to a year

Home prices, sales could remain weak as US sub-prime concerns linger

By Fiona Chan, Property Reporter

...........................
...........................

'Last year, it took maybe a month to sell a home. Now, it takes two months. But in 2000 or 2002, it took a year,' he said.

Oh now still can sell in two months lah...not to worry.

Yes, you are right. No need to worry now.
Things have changed.

If the US sub-prime concern stays, the market may (but not necessary) stay quiet for up to a year.
Now that the US sub-prime concern is going away, the market will not stay quiet at all.
The US sub-prime problem is still here, but the US sub-prime concern is going away.

With the US sub-prime concern going away, you don't have to worry any more.

Bank news and economic data boosts stocks to a big rally
Joe Bel Bruno
Business Writer
Associated Press
New York, New York, U.S.
Tuesday, 1 April 2008, 7:31PM U.S. EDT


Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange April 1, 2008. U.S. stocks extended gains on Tuesday, lifting the benchmarks S&P 500 and the NASDAQ up more than 3% as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s move to bolster its balance sheet calmed worries about the financial sector's stability. - Photo: Brendan McDermid, AP

Wall Street began the second quarter with a big rally Tuesday as investors rushed back into stocks, optimistic that the worst of the credit crisis has passed and that the economy is faring better than expected. The Dow Jones industrials surged nearly 400 points, and all the major indexes were up more than 3%.

Financial stocks were among the big winners after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Switzerland's UBS AG issued new shares to help bolster their balance sheets. With that upbeat news and a fresh quarter ahead of them, investors appear quite willing to make some bets that the worst of the damage from the nation's credit struggles has been felt. Moreover, the banks' moves buttressed the view that financial services companies are taking aggressive action to improve their capital bases and stave off the potential of a collapse similar to Bear Stearns Cos.

Analysts believe there must be a recovery in bank and brokerages to lead major stock indexes higher. Some of the biggest financial players had their sharpest moves of the year Tuesday — Citigroup Inc. shot up 11%, JPMorgan Chase & Co. rose 9%, and Lehman surged 18%.

"Investors have a difficult time making decisions about the stock market if they don't have confidence in major financial institutions, so there's been a lot of sideline cash," said Richard Cripps, chief market strategist for Stifel Nicolaus. "The extreme conditions that we've seen here over the past few months has been missing that confidence ... but that appears to be changing, and we're seeing the response."

Meanwhile, Wall Street got another boost when the Institute for Supply Management said its March index of national manufacturing activity rose to a reading of 48.6 — indicating a contraction, but a slower one than in February and tamer than many analysts had predicted. Government data on construction spending for February also came in better than expected.

The Dow rose 391.47, or 3.19 percent, to 12,654.36. It marked the eighth-biggest point gain ever for the Dow, and the third time in two weeks it came close to or surpassed 400 points.

Broader stock indicators also gained sharply. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 47.48, or 3.59%, to 1,370.18 — the index's best start to a second quarter since 1938. And, the Nasdaq composite index rose 83.65, or 3.67%, to 2,362.75.

The advance was in contrast to a lackluster session on Monday, where stocks managed a moderate gain in the final session of a dismal first quarter. Major indexes ended the first three months of 2008 with massive losses, marking the worst period since the third quarter of 2002 when Wall Street was approaching the lowest point of a protracted bear market.

Renewed enthusiasm that the credit crisis might be waning was also felt in the Treasury market, where government securities fell as investors withdrew money to take bets on stocks. The 10-year Treasury note's yield, which moves opposite its price, rose to 3.55% from 3.43% late Monday. The yield edged up to 3.56% in after-hours trading.

In addition to hopes about the financial sector, Wall Street was relieved to see the feeble dollar regain some strength against the euro. The euro fell to $1.5596 from $1.5785 late Monday in New York.

And there was also optimism that commodities prices, which have hit historic highs in recent months, have begun to retreat. Crude fell 60 cents to settle at $100.98 on the New York Mercantile Exchange after earlier falling below $100. Meanwhile, gold dropped back below $900 an ounce.

"This is a nice way to begin the second quarter," said Todd Leone, managing director of equity trading at Cowen & Co. "All the financials are up big, and there's a sense that things are turning. We definitely have not seen the last of the credit crisis, but we're getting closer."

The stock rally was underpinned by the announcements from UBS and Lehman Brothers that they are boosting capital by issuing new stock. Shares of banks and brokerages hovered near multiyear lows in recent months as investors feared heavy losses from investments tied to subprime mortgages would be overwhelming.

Earlier this month, widespread concerns about Bear Stearns' financial position forced the investment bank to sell itself to JPMorgan in a deal engineered by the Federal Reserve — and that stoked fears that other investment houses might follow.

JPMorgan rose $4.05, or 9.4%, to $47; while Bear Stearns was up 36 cents, or 3.4%, to $10.85 — slightly above the $10 per share acquisition price.

UBS, one of Europe's biggest banks, said it will issue up to $15 billion in new stock and that its chairman, Marcel Ospel, had quit. Investors chose to look past the bank's announcement that it will take a fresh $19 billion write-down due to additional declines in the value of its mortgage assets and other credit instruments, following an $18 billion write-down last year. Its shares surged $4.21, or 14.6%, to $33.01 in trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

Lehman Brothers, dogged by speculation it might reveal losses big enough to cripple the company, on Tuesday raised $4 billion of capital to stymie questions about its financial stability. Lehman rose $6.70, or 17.8%, to $44.34.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 22.68, or 3.30%, to 710.65.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about 4 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated volume came to a heavy 4.65 billion shares, compared to 4.02 billion on Monday.

In overseas trade, Tokyo's Nikkei closed up 1.04%. There were gains in Europe too, with London's FTSE rising 2.64%, Frankfurt's DAX gaining 2.84% and Paris' CAC 40 advancing 3.38%.

[Unregistered]

I suggest that you sell your house (if you have any) now and buy back later since you are so confident that price is going to come down.
I'm most welcome you to be my tenant to pay my low interest motgage.

U think he du want to sell? no buyer la. or y not u buy his house? u mortgage interest low wat.

[Unregistered]

in 2009 and 2010 a lot of development will be toped. I mean many many you know. It will then we see a lot of units dont have thier light on at night due to over supply.
Not only that, condo in prime district must pay about $900 monthly fee and have to pay tax some more. It was then many speculator realise it is a big expense if the unit is unrented.

Many foreigners are coming in.

[Unregistered]

Many foreigners are coming in.

Foreigner come stay your house. you think they come buy house? they not stupid.

[Unregistered]

That he bullshitted us?

That is what he is doing since August when the stock market started crashing and property sales stalled.

[Unregistered]

Foreigner come stay your house. you think they come buy house? they not stupid.

LOL they will come and watch formula 1 at night then the next day they go home liao.

[Unregistered]

Yes, you are right. No need to worry now.
Things have changed.

If the US sub-prime concern stays, the market may (but not necessary) stay quiet for up to a year.
Now that the US sub-prime concern is going away, the market will not stay quiet at all.
The US sub-prime problem is still here, but the US sub-prime concern is going away.

With the US sub-prime concern going away, you don't have to worry any more.

I am worried lah. No buyer coming although I dropped price. Just see see no buy one. Scared now if I get stuck like last time. Better to drop pants and have underwear still rather than lose everything.

[Unregistered]

in 2009 and 2010 a lot of development will be toped. I mean many many you know. It will then we see a lot of units dont have thier light on at night due to over supply.
Not only that, condo in prime district must pay about $900 monthly fee and have to pay tax some more. It was then many speculator realise it is a big expense if the unit is unrented.

Wow! You very imaginative.

You can even "imagine" that "a lot of units dont have thier light on at night due to over supply."

Those that are TOP in 2009 and early 2010 were bought in 2006 and early 2007, when the price was still very low.

So thank you very much for your concerns, the bank loans are very low and interest repayment can be taken care of easily.

It is those condos bought in the later half of 2007 that need to worry. Those TOP coming in later half of 2010 and later, maybe the speculators need to worry, that is provided the sub-prime problem drags until then.

So thank you very much for your concerns, I have said many times that all the sour grapes should take a three-year vacation and come back again when those TOP bought in H2 2007 are ready to TOP.