Home prices surpass 1996 levels

[Unregistered]

Well, no harm window shopping around. Make sure you be able to react fast enough when the market turn bull (I quite doubtful you could). If not, you will became Mr. Sourest Grape.

Don't think I can be fooled into buying your D22 property. Sour grape cant sell and so talking up the market in the hope of finding a buyer.

[Unregistered]

Don't think I can be fooled into buying your D22 property. Sour grape cant sell and so talking up the market in the hope of finding a buyer.

What D22?
D24 lah. Selling in Geyland and Rochor.

[Unregistered]

Don't think I can be fooled into buying your D22 property. Sour grape cant sell and so talking up the market in the hope of finding a buyer.

I thought D22 is where all the sour grapes stay?

The Seaview at Tuas.

The sour grapes are so sour because property prices in other parts of Singapore have gone up so much, but D22 had gone up so little.

But then sour grapes are still better off than the ghosts in D24 (Lim Chu Kang cemetery).

That district 24, the price didn't go up at all. Or maybe it went up in "Hell" currency that's why the data was not captured by the URA.

So sour grapes are still slightly better off compared to ghosts.

Sour grapes are the second lowest class of citizen in Singapore.

[Unregistered]

What D22?
D24 lah. Selling in Geylang and Rochor.

Don't mix property district with durian leh.

[Unregistered]

No lah. Haven't reached 1996 level yet lah.

[Unregistered]

Interesting analysis from Singapore expat forum. What do you guys say? Any views?

Posted: Sat Mar 29, 2008 8:54 pm Post subject: Singapore Property Going Down The Tubes?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I sent my buddy an e-mail asking if it was a good time to buy property in Singapore...

He's a Hong Kong based Asia property analyst for a small successful private investment bank.
He sent me this....(don't shoot me, I'm just the messenger.)

Quote:
Well...I would wait at least another 6 months to a year.

We told clients and investors to sell all Singapore holdings (property, stocks and everything else) in June 2007. We determined that prices would never, ever be higher and were predicting a 15% drop in pricing by March 2008 and 25% drop by June 2008.

Rationale was simple and not rocket science.

#1. There was no demand for housing when the boom started.
The vacancy rates on existing housing were above New York, London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and other major urban market levels. A Singapore property boom made no sense at all.

#2. Singapore GDP...nice impressive numbers. But the growth was 99% construction related. There is no economic growth when the construction boom ends and those numbers are subtracted from the total.

#3. The existing luxury housing vacancy levels in Singapore were adequate to fill the needs of Singaporeans and any possible influx of new senior executives for the next 5 years. Thus, there was no demand for executive luxury housing in the market.

#4. Value for money on Singapore property for foreign investors is not good when compared to other projected growth economies. (several factors are weighed including psf, quality of workmanship, size of economy, projected growth of economy, lifestyle and culture of the market.)

#4. The targeted future population numbers of Singapore are pie in the sky and completely without substance. Singaporeans are not having kids and the demand for jobs in Singapore will be service led lower paying jobs to supply the planned tourism developments. Non of these new inhabitants will be buying or renting condo's, especially in the high-end. And tourists visit, they don't buy or rent.

#5. Singapore is not a supply/demand driven economy. It is a small, managed economy. Thus, the property development plans were lofty, risky, and not based on future real supply/demand realities.

#6. There is a lack of real, transparent, objective information available in the Singapore market about the Singapore market. This leads to investors belief in hype and speculation rather than economic principles.

#7. Global money supplies and markets are taking a beating and will continue to take a beating. The second call on the sub prime products happens this June so more big losses are expected. This will stall or even damage the Singapore economy.

We expect distress sales in the property market to start soon. The high-end rental market is non-existent and the higher % of all unit sales were high-end investment property, speculator driven.
These buyers need "wealthy" renters to subsidize the million dollar mortgages. Most locals cannot afford the rents the market is demanding.
Surveys of multinational companies and banks have indicated that there is no boat-load of expats with a big housing allowance arriving at the Singapore port anytime soon. The new owner is now stuck with 100% of a very expensive monthly mortgage.

Here is an example of one major high-end development I'm following to prove the point. These are some very telling numbers.
600+ units launched
20+ remaining at $2,000 per square foot via the developer.
100+ units previously sold are now for sale privately less than 7 months after launch for $1,300 to $1,600 per square foot.
The reason...no rental income.
That tells me that property owners are willing to admit that market prices are down 25%+ already. Unfortunately, even at a 25% discount, there are no buyers.

Existing Singapore residents are keeping the rental market buoyant due to the fact they sold their old places and are waiting for the prices to drop...OR...waiting for their new unit to be completed. These people are relatively small in overall numbers and definitely not going to rent high end luxury units. They are driving HDB, middle priced housing rents up right now. They are also demanding 12 month leases or even less if they can get it proving that they are waiting to move or sitting on the sidelines waiting for prices to drop.

The Singapore property market is massively oversupplied today and more units are on the way. This is not good. This is should be extremely troublesome to anyone who owns property anywhere in that market. The potential valuation losses in the property market could be enormous, especially at the high-end. Overall prices could sink well below SARS levels and this could happen within 6 months to a year.

The short lived property boom was very much like a pyramid scheme.
It was all hype and no substance.
The first guys in are now smoking big cigars.
The last guys in are now left holding the ashtray.

[Unregistered]

#1. There was no demand for housing when the boom started.
The vacancy rates on existing housing were above New York, London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and other major urban market levels. A Singapore property boom made no sense at all.

#2. Singapore GDP...nice impressive numbers. But the growth was 99% construction related. There is no economic growth when the construction boom ends and those numbers are subtracted from the total.

#3. The existing luxury housing vacancy levels in Singapore were adequate to fill the needs of Singaporeans and any possible influx of new senior executives for the next 5 years. Thus, there was no demand for executive luxury housing in the market.

#4. Value for money on Singapore property for foreign investors is not good when compared to other projected growth economies. (several factors are weighed including psf, quality of workmanship, size of economy, projected growth of economy, lifestyle and culture of the market.)

#4. The targeted future population numbers of Singapore are pie in the sky and completely without substance. Singaporeans are not having kids and the demand for jobs in Singapore will be service led lower paying jobs to supply the planned tourism developments. Non of these new inhabitants will be buying or renting condo's, especially in the high-end. And tourists visit, they don't buy or rent.

#5. Singapore is not a supply/demand driven economy. It is a small, managed economy. Thus, the property development plans were lofty, risky, and not based on future real supply/demand realities.

#6. There is a lack of real, transparent, objective information available in the Singapore market about the Singapore market. This leads to investors belief in hype and speculation rather than economic principles.

#7. Global money supplies and markets are taking a beating and will continue to take a beating. The second call on the sub prime products happens this June so more big losses are expected. This will stall or even damage the Singapore economy.

I have some questions for Mr. Hong Kong Property Analyst, can you be my "messenger" as well.

#1. ChannelNewsAsia on 27 February 2008 reported that "Last year, Singapore saw over 63,000 new PRs, an 11-per-cent increase from 2006; and the city-state also welcomed more than 17,000 new citizens, a 30-per-cent jump."

Every year, we have 63,000 + 17,000 = 80,000 new immigrants, that is not including foreigners who come here on employment pass (but not taking up citizenships or PRs).

What do you mean "no demand for housing"? May I know where these 80,000 people are going to stay? Inside the canals?

In case you are not familiar with Singapore, here is the news URL to our government broadcasting station regarding the news I quoted above.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...331492/1/.html

#2. ChannelNewsAsia reported on 10 August 2007 that Singapore's "Financial services expanded by 17 per cent in the second quarter, up from 14 per cent growth in the first quarter, while the construction sector grew by 18 per cent, the strongest growth in almost 10 years. Growth in the manufacturing sector picked up pace to 8.3 per cent."

No matter how I calculate, I don't know how you arrived at the figure that "growth was 99% construction related."?

In case you are not familiar with Singapore, here is the news URL to our government broadcasting station regarding the news I quoted above.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...293171/1/.html

#3. You said "The existing luxury housing vacancy levels in Singapore were adequate to fill the needs of Singaporeans and any possible influx of new senior executives for the next 5 years. Thus, there was no demand for executive luxury housing in the market."

Then may I ask you what about this person called Jet Li?

Your Hong Kong magazine wrote "Actor Jet Li moved to Singapore last year for his daughters’ education, reported Hong Kong’s Next Magazine recently ... he bought a S$7mil (RM16.1mil) unit at nearby Ardmore Park condominium."

Is Jet Li a "senior executive" from some Multinational Company? Must luxury housing be only for "senior executives"?

Is Jet Li's purchase of Armore Park luxury condominium illegal? Since he is not a "senior executive"?

#4. Can you explain why our "projected growth of economy" is no good?

A MasterCard International survey showed that"Being often touted recently as the next unexplored, potential-filled Asian emerging economy, Vietnam unsurprisingly registered, among the 13 nations surveyed, the highest score of 94.3 points in the MasterIndex of Consumer Confidence (MCC), which ranges from 0 to 100 points, with Taiwan posting the lowest at 29.7 points. Hong Kong came in second position with a score of 85.9 points, closely followed by China and Singapore, which posted 85.5 and 83.6 points, respectively." http://news.cens.com/cens/html/en/ne...ner_22113.html

Singapore is ranked fourth, after Vietnam (94.3 points), Hong Kong (85.9 points), China (85.5 points) and Singapore (83.6 points).

Singapore is ranked 4th and just 2.3 points behind Hong Kong as the next unexplored, potential-filled Asian emerging economy, why is that considered "no good"?

#4 (You've got two points #4 and this is the second one) You said "Non of these new inhabitants will be buying or renting condo's, especially in the high-end."

Then what about Dr. Sudhir Gupta, "Born in India, moved to Russia to get Ph.D. in agricultural chemistry. Started tire company in Moscow ... Escaped assassination attempt in Moscow 4 years ago; now shuttles between that city and Singapore, where he's a citizen.

http://www.forbes.com/lists/2006/79/...upta_AHUD.html

He bought a luxury bungalow at Binjai Park for $12.55 million and 22 apartments, including the 63rd-storey penthouse, in the second tower of The Sail @ Marina Bay condo for a total $31 million.

Aren't these properties considered "high end", can you define what is meant by "high end"?

#5. I don't understand your this statement at all "Singapore is not a supply/demand driven economy. It is a small, managed economy. Thus, the property development plans were lofty, risky, and not based on future real supply/demand realities."

This statement totally confounds me so I need you to explain what you mean?

#6. Why do you say that Singapore lacks "real, transparent, objective information available"?

According to Jones Lang LaSelle report on Global Real Estates Transparency, "Highly Transparent countries for the first time in 2006 are Hong Kong, Sweden, France and Singapore, each having jumped to Tier 1 from Tier 2 since the 2004 survey."

http://www.joneslanglasalle.com/en-G...kets+Trans.htm

Singapore and Hong Kong both have been promoted from Tier 2 to Tier 1 as "Highly Transparent Countries", together with Sweden and France.

So can you please explain your statement "There is a lack of real, transparent, objective information available in the Singapore market about the Singapore market."?

#7. You predicted that "Global money supplies and markets are taking a beating and will continue to take a beating. The second call on the sub prime products happens this June so more big losses are expected. This will stall or even damage the Singapore economy."

I want to ask, if you are so good at predicting, then last June (just before the sub-prime) did you go short-sell USD100 billion worth of US stock futures contracts through leveraged margin-trading account? Especially short Bear-Stearns shares, then you would be a multi-billionaire by now.

Then why are you still working as a "Asia property analyst for a small successful private investment bank."?

[Unregistered]

April 6, 2008

PROPERTY

7 signs of a property slowdown

Buyers seem to be gaining ground again in the private homes market but consultants say it's far from crashing yet

By Joyce Teo, Property Correspondent


After rocketing to dizzying heights last year, the private homes market has stalled because of the global credit crunch - an external factor that took the market by surprise.

The withdrawal of the deferred payment scheme last year has also dampened demand somewhat.

Sales volumes and interest have fizzled out just as quickly as the market surged last year.

While many players hang on to the notion that strong fundamentals - low interest rates, for instance - will support the market, sentiment has fast melted away.

Is the property market slowing to a crawl? We examine the mounting evidence.

1 Growth in home prices weakens

The Urban Redevelopment Authority's (URA's) early estimate of first-quarter data showed a 4.2 per cent rise in private home prices against 6.8 per cent in the previous quarter and 31 per cent last year.

Consultants expect price growth to weaken. Prices, especially for high-end homes, might fall but not significantly as sellers are still reluctant to accept lower prices, said a seasoned property agent. 'There's no urgency to do so.'

2 Launches are held back

Developers have ample properties to sell but most continue to hold back launches. Some small ones have gone ahead but the response has been unimpressive.

With buyers and sellers choosing to remain on the sidelines as the global impact of a slowing United States economy remains uncertain, the market is largely quiet.

URA data showed that only 185 new private homes were sold in February, down from 328 in January. Last year, developers sold 14,811 new homes.

3 Collective sales have died down

This market is dead, for now at least, as developers stay away and new rules make it tougher for owners to sell en bloc.

So far this year, only one sale has been done compared with 26 in the first quarter of last year.

And one potential sale - that of Makeway View in Newton - was cancelled after the buyer, Bravo Building Construction, said it had found out that it would have to pay a higher-than-expected development charge.

Owners of some estates are starting to lower their price expectations.

Pinetree Condominium in Balmoral Park, for instance, was recently relaunched at a lower indicative price of $128 million - down from around $145 million last September, but still well above the 2006 price tag of $59 million.

4 Investor funds pull out or hold off

Islamic investment bank Kuwait Finance House, which agreed last December to buy 97 Goodwood Residence units for $818.4 million from GuocoLand, allowed the purchase option to lapse.

Both parties said last month that they were still in talks but did not provide clear reasons for the pullout. Industry sources had speculated that the fund's price - a record for the condo's area - was too high.

A recent DTZ Research report said some funds are holding off making investments, at least for the first half of this year, until the extent of the US slowdown and its global impact become clearer.

5 Sellers hand out discounts galore

In the resale market, sellers are getting more flexible. There are more desperate sellers in the market this year, property agents said.

Some want to sell one or two of their properties because they had bought some units under the deferred payment scheme, and payment is due in six months to a year, one agent said.

For new launches or sales of new units, some developers are also willing to give discounts when asked, while others offer stamp duty rebates to attract buyers.

6 Agents less sought after, ads dwindle

Property agents have more free time and are taking out fewer advertisements because of the poor response.

Last year, a seller's unit could be marketed by five to six agents, with the deal going to the agent who garnered the best price.

But this year, a seller might go with one agent, said HSR Property Group's executive director, Mr Eric Cheng.

On average, an ad for a reasonably priced unit could attract 12 to 15 calls last year. That is now down by half, he said. Prime, high-end homes have it worse, he added, noting that there could be no calls at all for some ads.

'I have not been advertising since Nov 15 because I could see sales volume falling,' said agent Andrew Soh.

7 Buyers toss in low bids to test the waters

Some developers have offered rather low bids in recent land tenders, which signals a slowing property market.

The Government in mid-March decided not to award a landed housing site in Jurong West as the bids were too low.

Then, the lowest bid for a Yishun condo site came in at just $95 per sq ft of potential gross floor area.

'The developers are pricing in the risks of falling prices,' said Knight Frank's director for consultancy and research, Mr Nicholas Mak.

'Given thin volume, they could also be hoping that there is no competition.'

Going forward, optimistic players are waiting for the market to regain some of its former glory in the next six months.

The pessimistic ones are prepared to ride out the whole year and possibly the next.

'If volume remains thin, there is a chance that private home prices might weaken this year, but the market is not expected to crash,' said Mr Mak.

The 8th sign is the loud thuds heard due to speculators jumping off high rises.

[Unregistered]

But Novena still lags the market. In fact, the latest Q108 numbers show that Novena area appreciate the LEAST. I think the hospital hub image is bad.

Agreed. Especially Novena, very short distance to Orchard yet selling at 1/2 of Orchard's price.

[Unregistered]

The chart not accurate one. Since when is D23 median price between 1000 to 1500 psf? Something wrong with the chart lah.

notice that D1 price still stays around the same range ..

[blackjack21trader]

The 8th sign is the loud thuds heard due to speculators jumping off high rises.

How can you be so cruel ? Are you no longer human?

[Unregistered]

Agree this kinda of cruel remark is unwarranted.

[Unregistered]

But Novena still lags the market. In fact, the latest Q108 numbers show that Novena area appreciate the LEAST. I think the hospital hub image is bad.

There's nothing wrong with being a medical hub. You need time for buyers to see Novena/Newton as an alternative to Orchard.

[Unregistered]

There's nothing wrong with being a medical hub. You need time for buyers to see Novena/Newton as an alternative to Orchard.

not enough done to promote the area

[Unregistered]

The 8th sign is the loud thuds heard due to speculators jumping off high rises.

How can you be so cruel ? Are you no longer human?

Can anyone enlighten me where this "cruel" person is from?

At first I thought that all these sour grapes are from outlying areas like Jurong.

But now even the Jurong area is going to get redeveloped, there shouldn't be any sour grapes left in this forum.

Yet this person is so "sour" and "cruel".

Which part of Singapore he stays? I can't think of any area.

Jurong is the last frontier.

[Unregistered]

Can anyone enlighten me where this "cruel" person is from?

At first I thought that all these sour grapes are from outlying areas like Jurong.

But now even the Jurong area is going to get redeveloped, there shouldn't be any sour grapes left in this forum.

Yet this person is so "sour" and "cruel".

Which part of Singapore he stays? I can't think of any area.

Jurong is the last frontier.

Your eyesores on sour grapes is a great sense of humour. Continue thinking and let us know.

[Unregistered]

How can you be so cruel ? Are you no longer human?

No. A robot.

[Unregistered]

Sour and cruel are those speculators who drive up the market and add to secondary inflation. They do not add to economic growth but make life diffiicult for the toiling ordinary folks.

So the Robin Hoods cheer when they see justice.

[Unregistered]

Sour and cruel are those speculators who drive up the market and add to secondary inflation. They do not add to economic growth but make life diffiicult for the toiling ordinary folks.

So the Robin Hoods cheer when they see justice.

You are talking about speculators in private condo market right?
You are talking about the toiling ordinary folks staying in public flats right?

[Unregistered]

Can anyone enlighten me where this "cruel" person is from?

At first I thought that all these sour grapes are from outlying areas like Jurong.

But now even the Jurong area is going to get redeveloped, there shouldn't be any sour grapes left in this forum.

Yet this person is so "sour" and "cruel".

Which part of Singapore he stays? I can't think of any area.

Jurong is the last frontier.

Oh you sour grape. Price falling and u stuck stuck. Jurong lake not deep enogh for you to jump. Speculators panicking rushing to the exits. All exits blocked. Huge jam there. Trampling stampede. oh my my. In between thuds heard. But softer since those jumping off high rises land on fleeing specualtors. Blood blood. Oh poor speculators.

[Unregistered]

There's nothing wrong with being a medical hub. You need time for buyers to see Novena/Newton as an alternative to Orchard.

Nothing wrong at all, i still remember the times that those heros at the TTSH had gone through during the SARS period. Salute to these Unsung Heros.

[Unregistered]

Oh you sour grape. Price falling and u stuck stuck. Jurong lake not deep enogh for you to jump. Speculators panicking rushing to the exits. All exits blocked. Huge jam there. Trampling stampede. oh my my. In between thuds heard. But softer since those jumping off high rises land on fleeing specualtors. Blood blood. Oh poor speculators.

Then can you explain why the URA residential price index still rose 4.2% in Q1 2008?

You sour grapes have been predicting "rush for exits" since the sub prime problem started around July last year.

Reminder. Now is April 2008, in another three months we're going to celebrate 1st anniversay of sub prime.

That means you sour grapes have been saying the "crash" for almost one anniversary already ...

[Unregistered]

You are talking about speculators in private condo market right?
You are talking about the toiling ordinary folks staying in public flats right?

No corelation leh.

[Unregistered]

You are talking about speculators in private condo market right?
You are talking about the toiling ordinary folks staying in public flats right?

No corelation leh.

That's mean he is talking rubbish lor!

[Unregistered]

Then can you explain why the URA residential price index still rose 4.2% in Q1 2008?

You sour grapes have been predicting "rush for exits" since the sub prime problem started around July last year.

Reminder. Now is April 2008, in another three months we're going to celebrate 1st anniversay of sub prime.

That means you sour grapes have been saying the "crash" for almost one anniversary already ...

Maddog/tigersee won't explain one lah. He has been shouting baseless "down down down" for almost a year now.

[Unregistered]

Maddog/tigersee won't explain one lah. He has been shouting baseless "down down down" for almost a year now.

Ignore maddog/tigersee, that foreigner.

[Unregistered]

No. A robot.

A robot who is programmed to be a sour grape?

[Unregistered]

The 8th sign is the loud thuds heard due to speculators jumping off high rises.

MRT service disrupted

Singaporeans once again faced MRT service disruption as they headed for work this Monday morning, when a man was found dead on the train track at the Choa Chu Kang MRT Station.

Police received a call at 8 am that a man had fallen onto the track. The man, a Chinese in his mid-40s, was pronounced dead at 8.30 am.

A portion of the North-South line was affected. According to signs flashed at MRT stations, there was no train service from Yew Tee station to Bukit Gombak station towards Jurong East station.




Trains running on this line had to turn around.

SMRT deployed a dozen buses to the station to bring the stranded commuters to the connecting stations shortly after 8 am.

Normal train services resumed at about 8.50 am after the body of the man was removed from the track.

A shopkeeper in the station said he heard commuters saying that the man had jumped onto the track.

Singapore Civil Defence Force and Singapore Police Force personnel were seen at the scene, which has been cordoned off. Police are now investigating the case

[Unregistered]

MRT service disrupted

Singaporeans once again faced MRT service disruption as they headed for work this Monday morning, when a man was found dead on the train track at the Choa Chu Kang MRT Station.

Police received a call at 8 am that a man had fallen onto the track. The man, a Chinese in his mid-40s, was pronounced dead at 8.30 am.

A portion of the North-South line was affected. According to signs flashed at MRT stations, there was no train service from Yew Tee station to Bukit Gombak station towards Jurong East station.




Trains running on this line had to turn around.

SMRT deployed a dozen buses to the station to bring the stranded commuters to the connecting stations shortly after 8 am.

Normal train services resumed at about 8.50 am after the body of the man was removed from the track.

A shopkeeper in the station said he heard commuters saying that the man had jumped onto the track.

Singapore Civil Defence Force and Singapore Police Force personnel were seen at the scene, which has been cordoned off. Police are now investigating the case

Oh so serious?

[Unregistered]

The 8th sign is the loud thuds heard due to speculators jumping off high rises.

MRT service disrupted

Singaporeans once again faced MRT service disruption as they headed for work this Monday morning, when a man was found dead on the train track at the Choa Chu Kang MRT Station.

Police received a call at 8 am that a man had fallen onto the track. The man, a Chinese in his mid-40s, was pronounced dead at 8.30 am.

A portion of the North-South line was affected. According to signs flashed at MRT stations, there was no train service from Yew Tee station to Bukit Gombak station towards Jurong East station.




Trains running on this line had to turn around.

SMRT deployed a dozen buses to the station to bring the stranded commuters to the connecting stations shortly after 8 am.

Normal train services resumed at about 8.50 am after the body of the man was removed from the track.

A shopkeeper in the station said he heard commuters saying that the man had jumped onto the track.

Singapore Civil Defence Force and Singapore Police Force personnel were seen at the scene, which has been cordoned off. Police are now investigating the case.

Can't believe people can be so heartless and crack joke on the dead!