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Thread: STOCKS THREAD

  1. #211
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    Quote Originally Posted by Komo View Post
    any advice on Ocbc?
    Singapore Banks Sector, cimb
    =Slipping deposit pool
    =Two points to highlight in May’s bank stats are: 1) a shrinking deposit pool, with May 14 total deposits lower yoy – a phenomenon not seen since SARS (1Q03); 2) good loan growth to businesses and FIs making up for slack mortgages (+2.5% YTD) and consumer loans. With deposit competition a key concern, our top pick is DBS, as its larger CASA base provides shelter.
    =What Happened
    =Healthy loan growth. MAS banking data for May showed healthy YTD DBU loan growth of 4.1% (Apr: 2.9%), broadly in line with the banks’ guidance of high single-digit to low-teens loan growth for the full year. The 1.1% mom loan growth was led by business loans (+1.6% mom, +6.3% YTD), building and construction loans (+1.1% mom, +3.1% YTD) and mortgages (+0.7% mom, +2.5% YTD). Meanwhile, consumer loans shrank 0.2% mom and 0.2% YTD as demand for car loans and share financing continue to fall.
    =Deposits shrank, LDRs crept up. A worrying trend that appeared in May is that DBU deposits shrank (-0.8% mom, -0.2% YTD), led by an outflow of fixed deposits. We have to go back to as far as Mar 03 (SARS) to find a yoy decline in system deposits. As loan growth continues to outpace deposit growth, DBU LDR is up (May:111%, Apr:109%), so is S$ LDR (May:84%, Apr: 83%).
    =What We Think
    =A shrinking deposit pool is worrying as banks will have to compete aggressively for a shrinking pie, hiking up funding costs for all. The concern is accentuated with the new LCR requirements, especially for the foreign banks who need to offer attractive rates to compete. If higher rates merely poached time deposits from the local banks, it would not be a worry. However, recent CASA packages suggest that the local banks are equally wary of CASA slippage.
    =What You Should Do
    =We maintain our Overweight call on the sector as the banks seem to be able to pass out higher funding costs to loans. DBS is our top pick, as its large CASA base (DBS: S$121m, OCBC: S$44m, UOB: S$48m) will allow it to remain relatively sheltered from impending deposit competition.

  2. #212
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    Quote Originally Posted by Komo View Post
    any advice on Ocbc?


    Singapore Banks Sector, clsa
    =Dearth of deposits
    =The DBU LDR leapt to 111.4% from 109.3% as loans expanded 1.5% MoM. May is a seasonally strong month for corporate loan growth. Sustained fixed deposit outflows have resulted in DBU deposits shrinking YoY for the first time since Mar 2003. Corporate loan growth for the month was broad based while consumer loan growth remains anaemic. Both S$ and FCY LDRs ticked up. The system LDR is at a fresh post-AFC high of 113.5%. Asset quality remains intact. We are OW. Top pick is UOB (BUY; S$25.40TP).
    =DBU loans are +4.1% YTD; helped by seasonally strong corporate demand
    =DBU loans (our proxy for domestic lending) grew by 1% MoM in May. DBU lending is on track for high-single digit YoY growth in 2014. 83% of the loan growth in May was driven by corporate loans. This is the eighteenth consecutive month that corporate lending has outpaced consumer (corporate 1.5% MoM vs 0.5% MoM for consumer). Corporate loans account for 61% of total DBU loans outstanding.
    =May is traditionally a seasonally strong month for corporate loans, with MoM growth spiking in the each of the past four years. Growth in May was broad based, with manufacturing, construction, trade finance, financial institutions and infrastructure conspicuous contributors.
    =Consumer lending remains on track for ~4% annualised growth in 2014. This will be the slowest pace of growth since 2006-1H07. Auto loans contracted for the 21st consecutive month (car loan balances are lower than a decade ago) while share financing and other personal lending were weak. Offsetting some of this pressure was relatively robust credit card lending (1% MoM) and a rebound in mortgage lending (0.7% MoM vs five month average of 0.3% MoM).
    =ACU loan growth was subdued, at 0.6% MoM. General commerce loans grew 2.1% MoM but this was largely offset by contractions in business, transport, construction and mfg.
    =DBU deposit growth is 0% YTD; first month of YoY contraction since Mar 2003
    =DBU deposits contracted by 0.8% MoM and 0.7% YoY (first YoY contraction since Mar 03). DBU deposit balances in May are now broadly similar to Dec. 2013. Although deposits from non-Singapore residents and ‘other’ Singapore residents have grown on a YTD basis; this has been offset by a 17% YTD decline in FI (financial institution) deposits and stable government deposits.
    =DBU CASA balances was broadly flat in May (vs -2.1%MoM in Apr), as outflows from the govt and FIs were offset by inflows from non-SG residents. Fixed deposits shrank 2.1% MoM vs shrinking 0.7% in April, driven by outflows from FIs.
    =Increased loan balances and deposit outflows pushed DBU LDR to 111.4%. S$ LDR ticked up from 82.8% to 84.0%, while FCY LDR increased to 146.4% from 145.5%. System LDR is at a post-AFC high of 113.5% vs 112.3% in Apr.
    =No change to view
    =The Singapore banks posted robust deposit growth in 1Q14 despite the lack of deposit growth for the overall system. We expect single digit domestic loan and deposit growth in 2014 and thus far, we remain comfortable with our view.
    =We are OW Sing banks. Our preferred pick is UOB (BUY; S$25.40TP) then DBS (O-PF; S$18.80TP). Least preferred is OCBC (U-PF; $10.05TP).

  3. #213
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    Quote Originally Posted by Komo View Post
    any advice on Ocbc?
    Singapore Banks Sector, cs
    =May loans strong (0.9% MoM), M2 growth hits ten-year low, system LDR now at 111%!
    =Overall strength in Singapore system (DBU+ACU) remained resilient with a 0.9% MoM / 5.8% YTD growth in May mainly driven by business loans. System M2 money supply growth (-0.2% YoY) hit more than a decade low plunging into negative territory.
    =Business loan growth momentum (1.0% MoM / 6.4% YTD) was driven by a rebound in trade finance (2.5% MoM), helped by construction (0.8% MoM) and financial institutions (1.2% MoM). Mortgage growth remained steady (0.7% MoM).
    =System (DBU+ACU) deposit growth (4.4% YoY, -0.3% MoM) saw the second consecutive month of shrinkage. Singapore banking system (DBU+ACU) loan-deposit ratio hit a new high of 111% (an increase of 11% over the past 12 months).
    =As we have been highlighting, we are no longer confident that Singapore NIMs have seen their worst. Worsening system liquidity levels (complicated by new Basel 3 liquidity requirements coming into effect starting 2015) don’t appear to be offset by better loan pricing. DBS (our top pick) remains relatively better placed on liquidity and offers attractive valuations (1.0-1.1x P/B).

    Singapore Banks Sector, macq
    =Increasing loan to deposit ratios
    =Event
    =The MAS released loan and deposit growth data for Singapore for May 2014. Total system loan growth in Singapore slowed to 15.9% YoY (0.9% MoM) in May 2014 vs 19.7% YoY for the full year of 2013. Combined with system deposit growth of only 3.6% YoY (-1.1% MoM), the loan-to-deposit ratio increased to a new record high of 112% from 105% in December 2013.
    =The three key points are that (i) system deposits contracted by -1.1% MoM which may intensify deposit competition (ii) mortgage loan growth is holding up well due to a slower pace in re-payments and (iii) trade finance loan growth picked up but growth rates may come down again as a result of the ongoing Metal Financing issues in China.
    =Impact
    =System deposits declined by -1.1% (-S$4.3bn) MoM (see Fig 1). Most of this is due to a decline in deposits from Financial Institutions (FI) which looks like a trend (see chart on the top). In particular insurance companies are a reason for the deposit outflow we believe (see Fig 2). Deposits from retail and corporates remained flattish MoM. The risk points to increasing deposit funding cost pressure for Singapore banks. DBS looks best positioned given that 55% (or S$ 161bn) of the group’s deposit is low-cost CASA deposits.
    =System mortgages grew by 7.6% YoY (0.7% MoM) in May. Repayment of mortgage loans has likely slowed down which is supportive for mortgage loan balances (see chart on the left) and is offsetting the weakness in new mortgage loan applications (20-40% YoY decline). Moving ahead, the slow repayment will keep mortgage loan growth in Singapore for the three Singapore banks in the mid- to high single digit levels, in our view.
    =General Commerce (GC) loans – a proxy for Trade finance loans – picked up again. After no growth in April (MoM), GC loans increased by 2.5% MoM in May (see Fig 3). That said May data is before the Metal Financing scandal in China which could impact June and July data in our view. For more details on this theme please see our report Singapore and Multinational Banks - Metal Financing – When secured lending turns into unsecured published on 20 Jun 2014.
    =Outlook
    =We are Overweight Singapore banks on a regional sector basis.
    =While net interest margins have likely seen the bottom, increasing funding costs are likely to put a cap on any meaningful upside despite better spreads on the asset side in our view. System loan growth (which includes offshore loans booked in Singapore) continues to look healthy.
    =UOB is our top pick and we see good potential for UOB to maintain the highest underlying profitability profile among the Singapore banks. We rate DBS Outperform which is most geared to rising rates and we think DBS is in a good strategic position to take market share, particularly in Transaction Banking and SME banking from the multinational banks. We have an Underperform recommendation on OCBC which is almost exclusively based on the pending WHB acquisition and substantial capital uncertainties as a result of it.

  4. #214
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    there was some sort of correction after u sold at the end of 2013. jan to early feb was that. after that, no horse run already.

    Quote Originally Posted by Simi View Post
    Hi Teddy Sir

    You the man

    I was wrong in the overall market reading anticipating a correction to come
    since early this year

  5. #215
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    nam cheong

    medtecs pump n dump
    In the final analysis.....its NOT whether you have a diploma,degree,masters OR PHD....its whether you have a HDB/PC/EC or LANDED...

  6. #216
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    Every dip is a buy as i said earlier in the post. I forsee firework bull run during nov and dec.

  7. #217
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    Simi Sir,

    We will always be wrong at one time or another..............
    Correction probably coming soon..............
    But will be short before another push to another new high..........................

    Quote Originally Posted by Simi View Post
    Hi Teddy Sir

    You the man

    I was wrong in the overall market reading anticipating a correction to come
    since early this year

  8. #218
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    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter View Post
    there was some sort of correction after u sold at the end of 2013. jan to early feb was that. after that, no horse run already.
    Humbled by the market
    thought was being on the right track during that time


    Nam Cheong, clsa maintains BUY with TP S$0.49 (from S$0.46)
    =Building up momentum
    =We are upgrading our FY15 earnings estimate by 3% following the order wins announced over the past week and consequently raise our PER derived target to S$0.49. OSV market remains firm with favourable supply-demand dynamics specifically for maintenance assets as well as AHTS. We thus remain confident that Nam Cheong will be able to secure a sale for all assets in its built to stock inventory. At 6.4x FY15 EPS, stock is still cheap vs peers and thus we expect re-rating to continue. BUY stays.
    =New contract wins
    =Nam Cheong announced two large contract wins over the last week which included US$92m vessel sales from its BTS program and another US$84m BTO contract.
    =US$92m vessel sales announced yesterday includes 3 PSV’s and 1 accommodation work barge (AWB). All vessels are part of the group’s built to stock program. PSV’s were sold to a repeat Asia based customer while the AWB was sold to a new customer - Maridive Group (Egypt). 2 of the 4 vessels will be delivered in 2014 while the rest will be delivered in 2015.
    =This follows the announcement last week wherein the group secured a built to order contract for 2 (AWBs) from Perdana Petroleum worth US$84m, with the option to purchase another 2 vessels.
    =Strong order momentum
    =YTD order wins are now at US$288m (~RM935m), while the gross orderbook now sits at RM1.7bn which is equivalent to 10 months of FY14 revenues. The group thus remains on track to meet our full year order win estimate of RM1.5bn.
    =Given strong momentum and relatively healthy demand supply situation in the AHTS market we are confident that the group will be able to secure a sale of its remaining 2014 deliveries over next 4-6 months. Note, the group has already sold 70% of the vessels scheduled for 2014 delivery.
    =Company recently hired Pradeep Datar (ex VP of Rolls Royce’s Asia Offshore business) as head of business development. We see this as a positive as he brings in a strong network/client relationships to the business.
    =Upgrade earnings
    =Factoring in the new built to order contracts announced last week we upgrade our FY14/15/16 estimates by 0.8%/3.3%/2.4% respectively.
    =Our estimates are factoring in another US$50m/US$100 BTO contracts for FY14/FY15 respectively in addition to the BTS shipbuilding program.
    =Stay invested
    =In-spite the strong run the stock remains under valued at 6.4x FY15 EPS and 7.8x FY15 EV/EBITDA (with upward risk to earnings estimate) as compared to the peer average of 12x PER and 8x EV/EBITDA.
    =Contract wins and earnings upgrades will be key catalysts for the stock.
    =Maintain Buy with S$0.49 (25% upside). Our target price is pegged to the Singapore peer average multiple of 8.5x. Note, Malaysian and Indonesian peers exposed to similar cabotage protection as NCL trade at a significant premium.

    Q&M Dental Group, kimeng maintains BUY with TP S$0.55 unch
    =1-for-5 rights issue announced
    =The rights issue price of SGD0.10/rights share is very attractive, in our view. Maintain BUY.
    =Beyond the six announced acquisitions, there could be more acquisitions coming that will offset the near-term dilution.
    =Remain positive on Q&M’s vision to grow via (1) earnings-accretive acquisitions in the China dental market and (2) organic expansion in Singapore and Malaysia.
    =What’s New
    =Q&M has announced a 1-for-5 rights issue to raise SGD14.1m via the issuance of up to 140.5m new shares at SGD0.10/rights share. Major shareholders including Quan Min Holdings and the CEO Dr Ng, holding a combined 65.2% stake, have agreed to take up their rights entitlements. Dr Ng will also subscribe for any excess rights shares (up to 61.5m or 43-50% of the total rights shares).
    =What’s Our View
    =The rights issue price is very attractive given the stock’s outperformance since we initiated in late 2013 and the expected positive contributions from Q&M’s China acquisitions. The major shareholders’ decision to fully subscribe for their allotments is also a strong endorsement of the stock. We expect the funds raised to be used to complete the acquisitions of Aoxin and Aidite.
    =There will some near-term earnings dilution but this will be compensated by maiden contributions from its six proposed acquisitions. Based on the last closing price of SGD0.455, the theoretical ex-rights price will be SGD0.40. Our TP will be diluted from SGD0.55 to SGD0.455 post rights issue but we are sanguine on this as it is based on FY14E forecasts which do not fully factor in acquisition-related contributions and it still represents more than 10% potential share price upside.
    =We would remain buyers of Q&M as the full year impact from the acquisitions will be felt only in FY15E. Lastly, beyond the six announced acquisitions (five in China, one in Singapore), there could be more EPS-accretive acquisitions in the future.

  9. #219
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    SIIC Environment, kimeng maintains BUY with TP S$0.22 unch
    =A strategic move; reiterate BUY
    =To acquire a 25.3% stake in Longjiang Environmental Protection Group for CNY405m cash. The asset is priced at a reasonable and normalised 23-27x FY13 P/E.
    =The acquisition is a strategic move for SIIC to penetrate into the northeast China market.
    =Reiterate BUY call with unchanged TP of SGD0.22.
    =To acquire a 25.3% stake in Longjiang Environmental
    =SIIC will pay CNY405m cash, pricing the asset at 23-27x normalised FY13 P/E. The transaction will be funded by internal sources, comprising proceeds from share placement in 2013 and loans from its parent Shanghai Industrial Holdings. We are positive on the deal given its reasonable valuation and at the same time allowing SIIC to penetrate into the northeast China market.
    =Positive on the deal
    =Longjiang engages in wastewater treatment, sludge treatment and tap water supply in the northern region of China, with total water treatment and supply design capacity of 2.2m ton/day and sludge treatment capacity of 1,000 ton/day. We note that SIIC’s parent Shanghai Industrial Holdings also has an effective interest of 16.8% in Longjiang. We will not be surprised if SIIC absorbs it parent’s stake in Longjiang in the future and uses it as a platform for expansion into northeast China.
    =This acquisition is in line with our full-year acquisition forecast of 1m ton/day of effective capacity. We continue to like SIIC for its strong government connections and lowly-geared balance sheet, which serve as powerful acquisition tool. We leave our earnings forecasts unchanged and reiterate our BUY call on the stock. Our TP is maintained at SGD0.22, pegged to 30x FY15E P/E.


    [sector]

    Singapore Property Sector, gs
    =Home prices decline further in 2Q; too early to expect policy easing
    =Private home prices -1.1% qoq and HDB -1.3% qoq in 2Q14
    =URA private residential flash estimates show home prices declined 1.1% qoq in 2Q14, as widely expected, with price declines across all market segments. This marked the third consecutive quarter of sequential price declines (1Q14: -1.3% qoq), underpinning a housing downcycle. Public Housing (HDB) resale prices also continued to trend downwards for a fourth consecutive quarter, -1.3% qoq in 2Q14 (1Q14: -1.6% qoq) adding incremental pressure on private Mass-end home prices.
    =Other 2Q14 highlights: (1) Rents continued to weaken, reflecting rising stock/completions; Jones Lang LaSalle estimates Luxury/Prime/Mass rents -2.8%/-2.0%/-2.5% qoq in 2Q14 vs. -2.2%/-2.4%/-2.4% qoq in 1Q14. (2) Government trimmed land supply in the 2H14 GLS rollout, the combined lists contribute an estimated 10,220 housing units, 12% less than 11,585 units in 1H14.
    =Despite more instances of developers introducing price cuts of c.5%-16% to move inventory, and repeated calls from developers for government to review property cooling measures, we think it is still too early to anticipate any easing of policy measures given that home prices are only 3% off the peak in 3Q13 after rising 89% from 1Q05-3Q13. We see the tapering of land supply as reflective of the government being mindful that supply is building up. Nevertheless, we expect a gradual 10%-15% correction in prices over the next 2 years as a structural demand-supply shift pushes vacancy to 8.4% by 2015E from 6.2% in 2013. We prefer commercial over residential exposure; reiterate Buy on CapitaLand and UOL; Sell on City Development.
    =Points to note
    =(1) Overall private residential price index declined 1.1% qoq to 209.3pts, still 18%/15% above 2Q08/2Q96 peaks. Landed home prices declined a further 1.5% qoq in 2Q14 (1Q14: -0.7% qoq).
    =(2) Across the non-landed segments, Mass/Mid/Prime prices -1.1%/-0.6%/- 1.5% qoq and are 44%/13%/2% above the previous cycle peak in 2008.
    =(3) HDB resale prices declined 1.3% qoq to 196.0pts, now 5% below its peak in 2Q13, having risen 104% from 3Q05-2Q13, outperforming private home prices by 19% over the same period.

  10. #220
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    US Market

    this bull market is now the 5th longest ever at just over 1,000 days, so a bearish turn around could come soon. At the same time, the longest bull market ever was in the 90's and lasted about 2,500 days.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Simi View Post
    US Market

    this bull market is now the 5th longest ever at just over 1,000 days, so a bearish turn around could come soon. At the same time, the longest bull market ever was in the 90's and lasted about 2,500 days.
    The macro-environment seems to indicate a bullish trend for stock-markets in US and Europe especially so when both economies are coming out of a recession.

    There is no majority consensus as to when the bearish turn will happen. In all probability, it can happen anytime when there is a signal that rising inflation will trigger the FED to hike interest rates. That is the key indicator to watch out for.

  12. #222
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    Actually, from history, it seems that the shortly after Fed hike interest rates, stock market is even more bullish than ever!

    Reason : Fed is telling everyone that they confirmed US economy finally is on strong recovery path!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


    Quote Originally Posted by Wunderkind View Post
    The macro-environment seems to indicate a bullish trend for stock-markets in US and Europe especially so when both economies are coming out of a recession.

    There is no majority consensus as to when the bearish turn will happen. In all probability, it can happen anytime when there is a signal that rising inflation will trigger the FED to hike interest rates. That is the key indicator to watch out for.

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    Hi Wunderkid

    I also like BAC

    good entry USD15.50 ~ USD15.60

    very likely to test last high of USD18 and surpass it

    Better returns than CPF 2.5% annual

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    Quote Originally Posted by Simi View Post
    Hi Wunderkid

    I also like BAC

    good entry USD15.50 ~ USD15.60

    very likely to test last high of USD18 and surpass it

    Better returns than CPF 2.5% annual

    BAC is a good stock to invest if not for the recent legal tussle with the US Justice. They have to pay a big sum of money for the settlement of the legal matter.

    Nonetheless, it is in my watch-list. My analysis , if all things are moving in a bullish trend, shows that the stock price can go as high as $17.72. But you know, it is always wise to take the money off the table before the stock crashes down after hitting its peak.

    Take care of your money.... it is your money, don't give it away.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wunderkind View Post
    BAC is a good stock to invest if not for the recent legal tussle with the US Justice. They have to pay a big sum of money for the settlement of the legal matter.

    Nonetheless, it is in my watch-list. My analysis , if all things are moving in a bullish trend, shows that the stock price can go as high as $17.72. But you know, it is always wise to take the money off the table before the stock crashes down after hitting its peak.

    Take care of your money.... it is your money, don't give it away.
    with the market hitting new high almost every other day
    most I hold a counter from days to not more than a month
    depending on support and resistance too


    can also watch HLF
    ranged between EMA34 and MA200

    good spread for trading

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    US inflation 2%, short term rate could go up to 2% in next 3y
    Singapore inflation 3%, short term rate follows US to 2%, OMG still negative one percent for a long long time to come

    Cash is junk, CPF OA @ 2.5% is junk (-0.5% real), SGS 10y 0% real, CPF SA 1% real

    Sigh
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  17. #227
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    Dow Chemical Co

    with 4 consecutive higher lows
    should be up and away to test recent high of USD53.35

    btw : HLF ...Golden Cross spotted

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    Never bet against indepenent day 4 july. Tonight cheong up.

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    M & A may be heating up in the US healthcare sector.

    The whole industry reminds me of the computer industry in the 80s. Commodore, DEC, Compaq and IBM PC had all disappeared as they were acquired by bigger and stronger players. There can only be top 2- 3 players in each of the major healthcare segments.

  20. #230
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    Wow! S&P500 1982 liao!

    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    Wow! S&P500 1972 liao!

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    Wow! S&P500 1982 liao!
    Looking like going for 1987

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    Tech stocks like sigma design and DDD is still low. Sigma design will be above $5 soon.

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    total return XNDX @ 4,267

    target 5,700
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  24. #234
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    S&P500 closed 1985 wow!

    Quote Originally Posted by Simi View Post
    Looking like going for 1987

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    The US economy seems to have recovered basing on the latest US job number and the unemployment rate, but is it enough for the Fed to start ending the QE and raise interest rates anytime soon ? Will this spike fear and bring out the bears to the market?

    In all probability, barring any unforeseen circumstances, the US market will continue its bull run to the end of the year. Part of the reason is that central banks around the world including sovereign funds and also the ordinary Americans themselves are starting to see that equities as an investment instrument offer a much better returns now that keeping the money in the bank or in bonds.

  26. #236
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    S&P500 back down to 1978 after hitting new high of 1991 recently!
    More to come!

  27. #237
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    Hope to get profit of US$2200 or more per day consistently from Futures trading...

    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    S&P500 back down to 1978 after hitting new high of 1991 recently!
    More to come!

  28. #238
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    Sold CRCT and buy HSI
    Sold half HPH Trust, going to sell off
    Hold FCOT, QQQ
    Bought Eurostoxx 50
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    Buy China stocks! Risks aside, P/E is single digit - much better than US stocks.
    Good luck!

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    Hope to get profit of US$2200 or more per day consistently from Futures trading...
    Assuming a 1% movement of the market, so you are taking a position of US$2.2M?

    If you are not leveraged, that's fine.

    For retail investors, leverage will one day kill ALL your earnings.

    Happy trading!
    Cheers!

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    -: 03-04-14, 16:04
  5. NEW 2011 CCR or OCR thread
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    Replies: 542
    -: 12-06-11, 15:32

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