I agree, provided foreign exchange risks are managed.Originally Posted by Unregistered
I agree, provided foreign exchange risks are managed.
Business confidence takes a dive
Posted on March 25, 2008 by aldurvale
Business Times - 24 Mar 2008
BT-UniSIM survey shows companies gloomy about next six months, despite strong orders
(SINGAPORE) Business confidence in Singapore has slumped to its lowest level since end-2004, according to the latest business climate survey by The Business Times (BT) and SIM University (UniSIM).
While sales and profit figures were largely unchanged in the three months to Dec 31, 2007, prospects have fallen dramatically for the next six months, the poll of 128 companies revealed.
This was despite companies reporting a strong pipeline of orders and new business. Some 71 per cent of the firms polled have overseas businesses.
Chow Kit Boey, director of the quarterly BT-UniSIM survey, said: ‘I think the firms may be overly pessimistic because of the grim prospects in the US economy, accompanying volatile and weak stock markets and rising oil prices.’
She said that improved orders and new business numbers suggest that the Singapore economy would not suffer too badly in the first quarter of 2008, given the low growth rate a year ago and the largely successful air show in February.
The quarter marked the 17th successive one with positive net balances in sales and orders as well as new business, she added. ‘This implies that the slowdown could be mild. It appears that the economy could grow at a faster rate in Q1 2008 than in Q4 of 2007.’
Economists polled recently by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) pared their first-quarter growth forecast to a median 5.7 per cent from 7 per cent previously, slightly higher than the 5.4 per cent recorded in Q4 2007.
The BT-UniSIM survey showed that the business prospects net balance - the difference between the percentage of optimistic and pessimistic companies - fell to 20 per cent, from 39 per cent in the third quarter of the year. This was itself a sharp drop from an average of 57 per cent for the first half of 2007, showing how confidence has crashed in recent months.
The drop was particularly severe among large and local firms, whose net balances dropped by more than half from the previous quarter. But foreign firms were about as confident as they were in the preceding three months and, intriguingly, small firms were much more upbeat - net balance for the segment tripled to 26 per cent from 8 per cent.
The overall poor sentiment was partly balanced by healthy orders and new business numbers. The overall net balance - the difference between those reporting more orders or new business and those reporting fewer - rose slightly to 39 per cent, from 32 per cent in the third quarter.
But conditions varied widely across firms. Small companies reported a net balance of minus-one per cent, though still an improvement on the previous quarter (-12 per cent). Foreign companies recorded a net balance of 51 per cent, up from 26 per cent previously.
Among sectors, financial and business services was the star performer for the quarter. It had the highest net balances in sales, profits and orders, and new business.
Firms in the construction sector were the most confident of business prospects for the next six months for the eighth quarter running.
Foreign firms recorded the best performances for Q4, with the largest increases in net balances for sales, profits and orders, and new business. Local firms saw the biggest decline, owing partly to weaker profits, said Ms Chow.
And comparing overall and overseas sales, orders and prospects showed that domestic business activities were stronger in the fourth quarter. In the previous three months, businesses found better sales and orders overseas. But small and local firms still saw better prospects from their foreign operations, while foreign and large firms were more optimistic on the local market.
Vietnam is also fast climbing the charts as a favoured investment destination. China and India were the other frontrunners but ‘Vietnam has gained much popularity as an investment destination by almost all types of firms’, said Ms Chow.
The BT-UniSIM survey was launched in 1996 and is now in its 13th year.
Ah HAH !!!
Sour Grape Paradox 4 (SGP4) detected ! Beep! Beep! Beep!
Look carefully at the Sour Grape's post above.
He says "Selling wave has started already. Go out and check with your agent."
Selling wave has started??? Yet the developers just last week bid so bullishly for the government sites one after another, at Westcoast (Li Kashing's Cheung Kong Billion Rise), Yishun (MCL Land) and Serangoon MRT Site (Pramerica Golden Ridge Fund)?
These developers are committing hundreds of millions of dollars, you mean they won't check out with the agents regarding sentiment on the ground before putting in their bids?
Who has contacts with more agents?
Sour Grape? Or the property developers?
Hmmm ... another Sour Grape trying to bullshit people.
But never mind, just fill up the "Go out and Check With You Agents" form below and you will see the picture more clearly.
1. Number of agents whom Sour Grape "go out and check" _____________
2. Number of agents whom Li Kashing's Cheung Kong Group "go out and check" before they put in their bid for the West Coast site _____________
3. Number of agents whom MCL Land "go out and check" before they put in their bid for the Yishun Site _____________
4. Number of agents whom Pramerica Golden Ridge Group "go out and check" before they put in their bid for the Serangoon MRT Site _____________
I only know the answer to one of the questions above. The answer is "zero".
A person who has all the time in the world for lengthy posts must be "laid off"?
Sour grapes probably haven't had the opportunity to play mahjong with some of these rich tai tais who've got nothing better to do in their life.
Oh dear, now we can all see what pitiful class of people sour grapes belong to.
In sour grape's world, only people who are "laid off" can have lots of free time in the world.
I am that "poor fellow" who made the length posts.
You are a very sharp person.
Your guesses about me are all correct.
But I can foresee what the sour grapes are going to say ... they'll probably say that you and I are the same person.
They even said that the EC guy and I were the same person.
Why you so agitated about "Pioneer Circle"?
Did the post hit a raw nerve?
I hear that government bonds are pretty good investments, pay better than FD. Can some kind soul tell me how to buy these? Actually on thinking over, leaving money in the bank with some interest, it will not shrink as badly as, if property prices slide. That one will lose interest, stamp duties, capital investment, really a whole lot more. Some agents also telling me that rentals are not as good as before. Tenants are more selective if they have the budget.
Those laid off, will not bother to spend time posting here.
How r u so certain money can be win in tis time of market. n wat surprise can u expect in tis market, maybe lose until wake up no underwear is also a surprise
to u. dun mislead, in this market, it pays to be extra careful, enter only coast clear, there r many house for u to buy, how many can u buy? Money shrink is better than money disappeared n left with unwantd baby to carry.
Are you sure you are talking sense?
Which part is dropping?
The latest figures show it is still going up.
Can you please check your facts before you comment?
HDB and private property prices up in Q1 flash estimates
Channel NewsAsia
Tuesday, 1 April 2008, 1345 hrs
Private residential property prices in Singapore rose 4.2% in the first quarter this year, according to the latest preliminary estimates from the Urban Redevelopment Authority.
The pace was slower than the 6.8% clip recorded in the fourth quarter of last year.
On a quarter on quarter basis, the biggest rise in property prices for non-landed properties came from the central districts just outside the prime postal districts of 9, 10 and 11.
Prices in these central areas (i.e. RCR) increased 7.7% in January to March, compared with the October to December period.
Properties in the prime districts of 9, 10 and 11, as well as the downtown area and Sentosa (i.e. CCR), rose 7.5% on quarter.
And those in the rest of Singapore (i.e. OCR) advanced about 7% in the first quarter from the previous three months.
The preliminary estimates are based on transaction prices given in caveats lodged during the first 10 weeks of the quarter, as well as the number of new units sold.
Meantime, the Housing and Development Board says prices of HDB resale flats rose 3.4% in the January to March period over the previous three months.
This is lower than the 5.7% increase in the fourth quarter.
Both the URA and HDB will release final figures at the end of April.
The URA said in its release, that as at 4th Quarter 2007,there are about 64,900 private residential units in the pipeline, of which about 56,100 new private housing units are expected to be completed between 2008 and 2011.
There are also some 38,300 units that have yet to be put on sale by developers.
As for the supply of government flats, the HDB said it had made available in the first quarter of this year, some 1,100 new flats in two Build-To-Order (BTO) projects in Punggol and Yishun.
It said that depending on demand, there could be another 5,000 new BTO flats in towns such as Punggol, Sengkang, Woodlands and Bukit Panjang.
The total planned BTO supply of 6,100 new flats for January till September 2008 will surpass the annual BTO flat supply in 2007 and 2006.
This new supply of flats will be in addition to those offered under Balloting Exercises for surplus replacement SERS and other flats, as well as the planned release of three Design-and-Build sites in Simei, Toa Payoh and Bedok with some 1,500 flats in the 1st half of 2008.
Yes, it is indeed going up.
4.2% for Q1.
Its all coming down for sure...
Hey born loser!
Why keep muliplte-posting your 3-week-old news anywhere in the forum?
Why not post a 3-month-old or 3-year-old news in all the threads?
Anyway, price increased by 4.2%. No old writing can change that.
Go post a 3-year-old news here. It may help you, loser!
Published April 1, 2008
OUTLOOK
Asia's property market shines
Global investors are showing a lot of interest in Asia because of the region's strong economic fundamentals, reports UMA SHANKARI
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THE future for investment markets across the world is mixed, but Asia should emerge from the current turmoil as the most attractive location, property analysts say.
Lower risks: Difficulties for foreigners in developing markets may mean increasing interest in Singapore and Hong Kong, perceived as easier to invest in
Coming off the sub-prime crisis in the US, global investors are showing a lot of interest in Asia because of the region's strong economic fundamentals and problems in other markets.
According to Donald Han, managing director of Cushman & Wakefield (C&W), 20-30 per cent of the investors looking at Asia have dropped off since the sub-prime crisis - but the rest are still interested.
'If there were 10 investors looking at an allocation of assets into Asia before the sub-prime problem, now there are six or seven still looking,' he said.
Ong Choon Fah, executive director and regional head of consulting and research at property firm DTZ, agrees.
'In the US, there are mainly sellers, not buyers. Here, there are still buyers looking to put money into Asia, as the potential for growth remains.'
- Donald Han,
managing director of Cushman & Wakefield
'Concern over the US and global economies, as well as the credit squeeze, will continue to impact sentiment in the investment market,' she said. 'But prospects remain cautiously optimistic as institutional funds look towards Asia for growth opportunities.'
Citigroup economists Huang Yiping and Chua Hak Bin pointed out similarly - in a recent note - that capital inflows into Asia could increase because of the region's robust fundamentals and resilient growth.
This growth is set to continue. Asian Development Bank president Haruhiko Kuroda said recently he sees Asia's growth overall growth moderating to only 7.5-8 per cent this year, from 8-8.5 per cent last year.
But the difficulty of finding good stock to invest in, combined with different regulatory and property rights regimes in different countries, remains a challenge for investors looking at Asia, a recent report from C&W noted.
'The majority of office stock in most Asia countries is owner-occupied,' it said. 'Compared with London and New York, the proportion of investment stock is low. Even Tokyo, the largest market in Asia, is only one third the size of London or New York by floor area.'
Development opportunities in Asia also vary greatly from country to country, and regulations governing foreign investment can change at short notice. China, for example, restricted entry to its real estate market in June 2007 in a bid to avoid hot foreign money creating bubbles in its property market.
Foreign investors now have to establish a real estate company before they can invest in a China project. Establishment, however, is heavily restricted, and investors cannot bypass regulations by acquiring or controlling a domestic real estate company.
But difficulties for foreigners in developing markets may mean increasing interest in Singapore and Hong Kong, which are perceived as easier Asian cities to invest in, C&W believes. Relatively transparent property rights and land registration systems - compared with other Asian cities - mean lower risk.
However, there is a downside of certain classes of investor - especially those with high gearing - falling by the wayside in amid tight credit markets.
For example, the lending squeeze has meant that traditional buyers such as real estate investment trusts (Reits) are holding off.
Reit managers in Singapore and the rest of the world have been growing their portfolios by using cheap credit.
But now, amid a volatile climate and liquidity squeeze, they are finding it more difficult to raise new funds by way of debt or equity, according to DMG & Partners analysts Terence Wong and Brandon Lee.
'Most notably, rising capital values of properties and higher costs of capital cannot only erode yields, but also lead to dilutive acquisitions,' they said in a recent note.
C&W's Mr Han reckons the pace of collective sales will also slow. 'The en bloc market will be a little quieter this year. It is yet to be seen if vendors will become more reasonable when it comes to pricing their properties, which will make them more attractive to buyers,' he said.
This could have an significant impact, especially in Singapore, where investment sales in 2007 were boosted by active Reit-related acquisitions and buoyant collective sales in the first half of the year.
'Investment sales in Singapore and Malaysia increased, driven by strong interest for income-generating buildings and the listing of several new Reits in 2007,' said DTZ. 'They were also boosted by strong collective sale of residential properties in Singapore during the first half of 2007.'
Although sentiment has turned, there are still buyers in the market. 'In the US, there are mainly sellers, not buyers,' said C&W's Mr Han. 'Here, there are still buyers looking to put money into Asia, as the potential for growth remains.'
In particular, investors with stable income - such as pension funds - are likely to be keen on Asia, analysts say.
Strong fundamentals mean the investment market will continue to do well in 2008, they believe.
For example, strong bidding at recent government sales of mass-market residential sites in Singapore shows there is still demand, Mr Han notes.
And DTZ believes investors in Singapore are likely to look towards non-traditional asset classes as yields of 'core' and 'core-plus' investment assets continue to compress.
IAM CANCELLING TOO. WHY RUSH WHEN CAN SOON GET 40% LOWER.
Stop dreaming. You want 40% drop in prices? Wait till you get 40% drop in employment first.
Agreed, dream on
Economy Loses 80,000 Jobs, Worse Than Expected
By Reuters | 04 Apr 2008 | 08:32 AM ET
US employers cut payrolls for a third month in a row in March, slashing 80,000 jobs for the biggest monthly job decline in five years as the economy headed into a downturn, government data on Friday showed.
The Labor Department revised the first two months of the year's job losses to a total of 52,000 from a previous estimate of 85,000. The March unemployment rate jumped to 5.1 percent from 4.8 percent, the highest since a matching rate in September 2005.
The March job report was more bleak than expected.
Economists polled ahead of the report forecast a decline of 60,000 in non-farm payrolls and a rise in the unemployment rate to 5 percent.
"It's not a good number, clearly," said David Bianco, chief US equity strategist at UBS. "But the market has been braced for a bad number. Almost every investor equity and otherwise would acknowledge that we are in a recession but we still think it is a mild recession and we are going to have pretty good profit conditions in the S&P 500 for this quarter and for the rest of the year."
During the first quarter of this year job losses averaged 77,000 a month, compared to average monthly gains of 76,000 in the last half of 2007, according to Keith Hall, Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner.
Job losses were widespread during the month, with the biggest losses in the construction and manufacturing sectors.
We told clients and investors to sell all Singapore holdings (property, stocks and everything else) in June 2007. We determined that prices would never, ever be higher and were predicting a 15% drop in pricing by March 2008 and 25% drop by June 2008. Quote from above article.
Absolute rubbish predictions.Recent figures have proven that the property prices have not dropped for 1st quarter 2008 but have instead increased by 4.2%.
I feel that the report is severely bias & i dispute the fact that our GDP is 99% construction related. What about the growth in our financial sector which is so obvious just looking at the demand for office space . Maybe this guy is jealous of Singapore because of the number of financial instituitions relocating from HK to Singapore.
Agreed, biggest lie and distortion I heard in a long time.
Agreed too but what about stagnating sales. I am worried my unit may not sell.
I have some questions for Mr. Hong Kong Property Analyst, can you be my "messenger" as well.
#1. ChannelNewsAsia on 27 February 2008 reported that "Last year, Singapore saw over 63,000 new PRs, an 11-per-cent increase from 2006; and the city-state also welcomed more than 17,000 new citizens, a 30-per-cent jump."
Every year, we have 63,000 + 17,000 = 80,000 new immigrants, that is not including foreigners who come here on employment pass (but not taking up citizenships or PRs).
What do you mean "no demand for housing"? May I know where these 80,000 people are going to stay? Inside the canals?
In case you are not familiar with Singapore, here is the news URL to our government broadcasting station regarding the news I quoted above.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...331492/1/.html
#2. ChannelNewsAsia reported on 10 August 2007 that Singapore's "Financial services expanded by 17 per cent in the second quarter, up from 14 per cent growth in the first quarter, while the construction sector grew by 18 per cent, the strongest growth in almost 10 years. Growth in the manufacturing sector picked up pace to 8.3 per cent."
No matter how I calculate, I don't know how you arrived at the figure that "growth was 99% construction related."?
In case you are not familiar with Singapore, here is the news URL to our government broadcasting station regarding the news I quoted above.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...293171/1/.html
#3. You said "The existing luxury housing vacancy levels in Singapore were adequate to fill the needs of Singaporeans and any possible influx of new senior executives for the next 5 years. Thus, there was no demand for executive luxury housing in the market."
Then may I ask you what about this person called Jet Li?
Your Hong Kong magazine wrote "Actor Jet Li moved to Singapore last year for his daughters’ education, reported Hong Kong’s Next Magazine recently ... he bought a S$7mil (RM16.1mil) unit at nearby Ardmore Park condominium."
Is Jet Li a "senior executive" from some Multinational Company? Must luxury housing be only for "senior executives"?
Is Jet Li's purchase of Armore Park luxury condominium illegal? Since he is not a "senior executive"?
#4. Can you explain why our "projected growth of economy" is no good?
A MasterCard International survey showed that"Being often touted recently as the next unexplored, potential-filled Asian emerging economy, Vietnam unsurprisingly registered, among the 13 nations surveyed, the highest score of 94.3 points in the MasterIndex of Consumer Confidence (MCC), which ranges from 0 to 100 points, with Taiwan posting the lowest at 29.7 points. Hong Kong came in second position with a score of 85.9 points, closely followed by China and Singapore, which posted 85.5 and 83.6 points, respectively." http://news.cens.com/cens/html/en/ne...ner_22113.html
Singapore is ranked fourth, after Vietnam (94.3 points), Hong Kong (85.9 points), China (85.5 points) and Singapore (83.6 points).
Singapore is ranked 4th and just 2.3 points behind Hong Kong as the next unexplored, potential-filled Asian emerging economy, why is that considered "no good"?
#4 (You've got two points #4 and this is the second one) You said "Non of these new inhabitants will be buying or renting condo's, especially in the high-end."
Then what about Dr. Sudhir Gupta, "Born in India, moved to Russia to get Ph.D. in agricultural chemistry. Started tire company in Moscow ... Escaped assassination attempt in Moscow 4 years ago; now shuttles between that city and Singapore, where he's a citizen.
http://www.forbes.com/lists/2006/79/...upta_AHUD.html
He bought a luxury bungalow at Binjai Park for $12.55 million and 22 apartments, including the 63rd-storey penthouse, in the second tower of The Sail @ Marina Bay condo for a total $31 million.
Aren't these properties considered "high end", can you define what is meant by "high end"?
#5. I don't understand your this statement at all "Singapore is not a supply/demand driven economy. It is a small, managed economy. Thus, the property development plans were lofty, risky, and not based on future real supply/demand realities."
This statement totally confounds me so I need you to explain what you mean?
#6. Why do you say that Singapore lacks "real, transparent, objective information available"?
According to Jones Lang LaSelle report on Global Real Estates Transparency, "Highly Transparent countries for the first time in 2006 are Hong Kong, Sweden, France and Singapore, each having jumped to Tier 1 from Tier 2 since the 2004 survey."
http://www.joneslanglasalle.com/en-G...kets+Trans.htm
Singapore and Hong Kong both have been promoted from Tier 2 to Tier 1 as "Highly Transparent Countries", together with Sweden and France.
So can you please explain your statement "There is a lack of real, transparent, objective information available in the Singapore market about the Singapore market."?
#7. You predicted that "Global money supplies and markets are taking a beating and will continue to take a beating. The second call on the sub prime products happens this June so more big losses are expected. This will stall or even damage the Singapore economy."
I want to ask, if you are so good at predicting, then last June (just before the sub-prime) did you go short-sell USD100 billion worth of US stock futures contracts through leveraged margin-trading account? Especially short Bear-Stearns shares, then you would be a multi-billionaire by now.
Then why are you still working as a "Asia property analyst for a small successful private investment bank."?
Wow! So much solid facts and figures.
OK, I rest my case.
why sell when the environment is uncertain. Do it when the sentiment is more favourable. low sales is an indication of caution in buying sentiment and not a reflection of poor fundamentals
Yalor, hold lor, hold until ur ass come up smoke.
U also rest ur body and soul
Don't be misled by this guy, I know him.
He is cancelling not because prices are getting 40% lower; he is cancelling because he was fired from his job end of last month!
Let's have some pity on him and pray for him. Amen.
I hv saved for years and paid up for my retired asset, a ppty. But, inflation has eaten up it's value and ruin my retirement plan.
I hope govt can boost the ppty prices so I can hv enough money to retire. I heard that in Dubai ppty prices has increased more than 10 folds since 2002 until today. Beijing, Shanghai, HK and many part of South East Asia hv also increased many many folds since early 2000 until now.
Then, why our ppty prices increase was so short and so little compared to other major city in Asia? How can the retirees survive in this high inflationary environment with so little amount of money?
I read from this forum some ppl said that our ppty prices was intentionally kept low so we can attract foreign talent. Is that true? I hope not.
Dear Retiree,
Rest assured that your worries are unfounded.
On the contrary, the Government continously invests billions throughout the island to enhance the values of assets owned by all Singaporeans.
Read the following speech by none other than our MM Lee.
"Singapore is undergoing a transformation. The Marina Barrage is completed. From next year 2009, saline water will be drained out and we will have a fresh water lake. PUB will make sure that the lake is free of debris and pollution. All streams, canals and monsoon drains will become the recreation waterways and be greened up and fitted with board water. This requires complex engineering task and also needs the cooperation of our people to keep our drains and waterways free of plastic and other waste.
By 2011, the Marina Bay Area will be splendid, especially a water plaza, surrounded by a promenade fronting financial centres, integrated resorts, residential condominiums, food and beverages outlets, an enchanting sight to behold. It will be a unique city centre. We will not leave our heartlands behind. All new towns will be upgraded and beautified. The massive new investments in infrastructure and beautification, plus a steadily growing economy, with higher incomes, will keep property values going up."
The full text of his speech can be found here:
http://www.pmo.gov.sg/News/Speech+by...ear+Dinner.htm
Thanks. What a relief!
I will not cash in my ppty for now. I will hold and continue to hold until the price increase by at least another 300%.
Retiree.
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