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Thread: URA mulls over monthly index on private home prices

  1. #1
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    Default URA mulls over monthly index on private home prices

    Published March 18, 2008

    URA mulls over monthly index on private home prices

    By KALPANA RASHIWALA


    (SINGAPORE) The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) is mulling over the possibility of releasing the price index for private homes, at least for non- landed properties, on a monthly basis instead of just on a quarterly basis as it does currently, BT understands.

    When contacted, a URA spokeswoman said: 'We are studying the possibility. We will let you know when a decision has been made.'

    In the meantime, URA will issue the flash estimate for the Q1 2008 private home price index on April 1, as usual, the URA spokeswoman added.

    Market watchers gave mixed reactions to the idea of URA releasing its private home price index every month. Some say this would complement the monthly developer sales data, while others suggest that the idea may not be such a good thing in today's quiet market.

    'There may not be enough launches and property transactions to compute an index monthly in a quiet market,' said a seasoned property consultant. 'If the market turns, it may not be a good idea to keep reminding people every month that the index is going down or the volume of transactions is falling. That may accelerate the decline. It's psychological.'

    But some players argued that this move could complement URA's monthly release of developers' sales data.

    'The developer sales data shows a median price, which may not be reflective of the market since it depends on the type of units (including how they face and whether they have private enclosed spaces/ roof terraces) sold in a development in a particular month. Whereas the formula for a price index is more rigorous than a simple median price and provides a more accurate picture of actual price trends in the market,' says Colliers International's director of research and consultancy Tay Huey Ying.

    She reckons that because an overall price index will be based on both primary and secondary market transactions, the volume of transactions should be enough for a monthly computation.

    Currently URA publishes developers' private home sales data for each month in the middle of the following month on its website. However, if the authority decides to go ahead with issuing the price index for private homes on a monthly basis, it is likely that both information releases will be at the same time to avoid confusing the public, market watchers suggest.

    They also say that if URA decides to go monthly with its price index, they would not be surprised if the Housing & Development Board also broadcasts its resale flat price index on a monthly basis.

  2. #2
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: URA mulls over monthly index on private home prices

    If the number of transactions do not go up, i think is no point for such monthly index. Where are all the foreigners now, we need some activities here.

  3. #3
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: URA mulls over monthly index on private home prices

    Quote Originally Posted by mr funny
    Published March 18, 2008

    URA mulls over monthly index on private home prices

    'If the market turns, it may not be a good idea to keep reminding people every month that the index is going down or the volume of transactions is falling. That may accelerate the decline. It's psychological.'
    Oh dear , oh dear. Volumes down. Median prices down. Developers forced to hold back launches for fear of excaerbating the decline. US (our biggest export partner) getting worse by the month.

    Go URA! Publish the monthly reports. Tip the balance! 'accelerate the decline'. Increase the speculators 'psychological' stress.

  4. #4
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: URA mulls over monthly index on private home prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Oh dear , oh dear. Volumes down. Median prices down. Developers forced to hold back launches for fear of excaerbating the decline. US (our biggest export partner) getting worse by the month.

    Go URA! Publish the monthly reports. Tip the balance! 'accelerate the decline'. Increase the speculators 'psychological' stress.

    anything wrong with you?
    today report stated, Feb price up 14.2% from Jan.
    developers like CDL & UOL, they will hold back units for capital appreciation, they do not want to sell, rent out or lease out, the return is much better than sell now. Strong strategy & confidence in spore property market.

  5. #5
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: URA mulls over monthly index on private home prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Oh dear , oh dear. Volumes down. Median prices down. Developers forced to hold back launches for fear of excaerbating the decline. US (our biggest export partner) getting worse by the month.

    Go URA! Publish the monthly reports. Tip the balance! 'accelerate the decline'. Increase the speculators 'psychological' stress.
    Sure to liao money. Last tender only $78 psf, developers shrink.

  6. #6
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: URA mulls over monthly index on private home prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    If the number of transactions do not go up, i think is no point for such monthly index. Where are all the foreigners now, we need some activities here.
    Many foreigners already bought their units last year. When more units come on line in the next few years, rental rate will dip for sure and when it does, property price will come down....this is just like the cycle that pushed up the property price last two years, but just that it will be going into reverse direction this time...

  7. #7
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: URA mulls over monthly index on private home prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Many foreigners already bought their units last year. When more units come on line in the next few years, rental rate will dip for sure and when it does, property price will come down....this is just like the cycle that pushed up the property price last two years, but just that it will be going into reverse direction this time...
    So you agree that it has not happened yet?

  8. #8
    Unregistered Guest

    Thumbs up Re: URA mulls over monthly index on private home prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    So you agree that it has not happened yet?
    Yes. Not happen yet. Because more foreigner will come, enbloc millionaire will buy. Less launches will mean supply will dip. Demand will increase, for sure price will go up. This is the property cycle and will go into reverse and heading UP.....

  9. #9
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: URA mulls over monthly index on private home prices

    LOL.

    This is the most funny website - comprising people who try to scare others with constant bad news, but are themselves constantly frustrated.

    25 Feb 2008

    Almost everyone is trying to take a slice of action at Marina Bay Financial Centre (MBFC) which will be fully completed by 2012.

    American Express International (Amex) is the latest new tenant at Marina Bay Financial Centre (MBFC), which means that slightly more than half of the total 2.9 million square feet of offices in the entire development has been taken up.

    Barclays is said to have agreed to lease about 100,000 sq ft or four floors in the tower, Icap is taking 35,000 sq ft and Pictet around 25,000 sq ft.

    Standard Chartered is taking 24 floors or 508,298 sq ft out of its 600,000 sq ft of net lettable area at the first phase 33-storey Tower One.

    Smaller tenants in that tower include French corporate and investment bank Natixis, which is taking 65,000 sq ft, and Wellington International Management Co (21,000 sq ft).

    DBS has leased about 700,000 sq ft in MBFC's Tower 3 - which will be in the project's second phase and slated for completion by early 2012.

    CBRE, the leasing agent of MBFC, said that Grade A office rents in Singapore rose 96.5% last year to hit $17.15 psf a month.

    There is still much upside because of the severe shortage of available office space. But a sharp hike is unlikely given the current cautious moods among prospective tenants. A moderate growth in rent is a more likely scenario.

  10. #10
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: URA mulls over monthly index on private home prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Yes. Not happen yet. Because more foreigner will come, enbloc millionaire will buy. Less launches will mean supply will dip. Demand will increase, for sure price will go up. This is the property cycle and will go into reverse and heading UP.....
    With the number of enblocs transacted plus the govt aggressive land sale program for the past year, developer can only hold out the launch for so long..... The day will come when fire sale will begin....

  11. #11
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: URA mulls over monthly index on private home prices

    25 Feb 2008

    Almost everyone is trying to take a slice of action at Marina Bay Financial Centre (MBFC) which will be fully completed by 2012.

    American Express International (Amex) is the latest new tenant at Marina Bay Financial Centre (MBFC), which means that slightly more than half of the total 2.9 million square feet of offices in the entire development has been taken up.

    Barclays is said to have agreed to lease about 100,000 sq ft or four floors in the tower, Icap is taking 35,000 sq ft and Pictet around 25,000 sq ft.

    Standard Chartered is taking 24 floors or 508,298 sq ft out of its 600,000 sq ft of net lettable area at the first phase 33-storey Tower One.

    Smaller tenants in that tower include French corporate and investment bank Natixis, which is taking 65,000 sq ft, and Wellington International Management Co (21,000 sq ft).

    DBS has leased about 700,000 sq ft in MBFC's Tower 3 - which will be in the project's second phase and slated for completion by early 2012.

    CBRE, the leasing agent of MBFC, said that Grade A office rents in Singapore rose 96.5% last year to hit $17.15 psf a month.

    There is still much upside because of the severe shortage of available office space. But a sharp hike is unlikely given the current cautious moods among prospective tenants. A moderate growth in rent is a more likely scenario.
    I think everyone here should sit down calmly for a moment and ask yourself this question:

    When the international banks start moving into this 2.9 million square feet of office space by 2012, who/what is going to move into these offices?

    Robots who do not need a place to stay?

    Labourers who earn $1,000 per month looking for HDB flats?

    SMU fresh grads who earn $4,000 per month and still staying with their parents?

    Or someone else?

    Do you see the picture?

    A tsunami is coming.

  12. #12
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: URA mulls over monthly index on private home prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    LOL.

    This is the most funny website - comprising people who try to scare others with constant bad news, but are themselves constantly frustrated.
    Think you are a bit late, half a year ago, this place was bombarded with good news. Funny indeed.

  13. #13
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: URA mulls over monthly index on private home prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    I think everyone here should sit down calmly for a moment and ask yourself this question:

    When the international banks start moving into this 2.9 million square feet of office space by 2012, who/what is going to move into these offices?

    Robots who do not need a place to stay?

    Labourers who earn $1,000 per month looking for HDB flats?

    SMU fresh grads who earn $4,000 per month and still staying with their parents?

    Or someone else?

    Do you see the picture?

    A tsunami is coming.
    The papers keep mentioning about shortages of office space, is it true? If it is true, these "companies" will replace these empty spaces.

  14. #14
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: URA mulls over monthly index on private home prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Oh dear , oh dear. Volumes down. Median prices down. Developers forced to hold back launches for fear of excaerbating the decline. US (our biggest export partner) getting worse by the month.

    Go URA! Publish the monthly reports. Tip the balance! 'accelerate the decline'. Increase the speculators 'psychological' stress.
    Who told you the median prices have fallen? Go read the full report (e.g. in The Straits Times) before you make your wild statement.

    Just to give you a hint, if you purposedly take the lowest set of median prices, the price dropped only by 0.4%. If you take the normal set of median prices, prices have continued to move up.

  15. #15
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: URA mulls over monthly index on private home prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    "For units sold in the Rest of Central Region (RCR), the lowest median price increased 14.2% from $765psf in January to $874psf in February."



    not bad, price still up in Feb.
    Prices went up by 14.2%?
    Good! Keep it up!

  16. #16
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: URA mulls over monthly index on private home prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Prices went up by 14.2%?
    Good! Keep it up!
    But still left behind by HK performance. Over there, the ppty prices hv already far exceeded the peak in 1997. Here, we are still 20% below the previous peak. In fact, we are going to hv 2 IR's, F1, YOG, better air quality and so on.

    Something is wrong here, isn't it?

  17. #17
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: URA mulls over monthly index on private home prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    With the number of enblocs transacted plus the govt aggressive land sale program for the past year, developer can only hold out the launch for so long..... The day will come when fire sale will begin....
    Fire sale ? Are you refering to the fire now burning up your ass for not investing earlier ? It's still not too late, you know. Buy before your ass is thoroughly burnt soot black !

  18. #18
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: URA mulls over monthly index on private home prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    But still left behind by HK performance. Over there, the ppty prices hv already far exceeded the peak in 1997. Here, we are still 20% below the previous peak. In fact, we are going to hv 2 IR's, F1, YOG, better air quality and so on.

    Something is wrong here, isn't it?
    Singapore property is dirt cheap in comparing to those in HK. One would expect folks in HK will queue up to buy Singapore property. Wrong! I was surprised to find out the other days that despite a surge of buying of Sinagpore property by foregniers last years, only 1% of total foreign buying were by folks from HK. Lesson: there is so such thing as cheap or expensive, investors only care about upside potential! Folks in HK are good at speculative activity and they just don't see great upside potential in SInagpore property!

  19. #19
    Unregistered Guest

    Cool Re: URA mulls over monthly index on private home prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Sure to liao money. Last tender only $78 psf, developers shrink.
    Why $78 psf is because this piece of land is in westwood 99yr lease, which is close to the foreign workers dormitory and chinese ,Malay tomb in Lim Chu Kang.No a very desirable site lah!

  20. #20
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: URA mulls over monthly index on private home prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Why $78 psf is because this piece of land is in westwood 99yr lease, which is close to the foreign workers dormitory and chinese ,Malay tomb in Lim Chu Kang.No a very desirable site lah!
    Remember good thing will not come cheap or cheap thing will not be ????????

  21. #21
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: URA mulls over monthly index on private home prices

    Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Sure to liao money. Last tender only $78 psf, developers shrink.
    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Why $78 psf is because this piece of land is in westwood 99yr lease, which is close to the foreign workers dormitory and chinese ,Malay tomb in Lim Chu Kang.No a very desirable site lah!
    Aiyah ... I already said many times that this is the problem with construction costs.

    The developers are being squeezed by construction costs.

    If you look at transactions from www.nationproperty.sg around Westwood Avenue, Westwood Terrace and Westwood Drive, you find that the a typical 3-storey terrace of around 1800 sf sells for only $820,000 to $990,000.

    If you go to URA website and check Masterplan 2003, the plot ratio at this Westwood Area is 2.8 so the build-up area for a plot area of 1800 sf is around 5000 sf of build up area.

    The construction cost of landed property is higher than for condo because don't have economies of scale.

    Even if we use a very low end mass market construction cost of $300 psf and apply to 5000 sf of build up area, the cost alone is $1.5 million !!!

    Then add another $78 psf for the tender price. That comes to $1.89 million !!!

    Who wants to pay $1.89 million for a terrace house in Jurong West?

    You see the problem is the economics just isn't right.

    If you work backwards, and take the current selling price of $990 k divide by 5,000 sf, the price is $198 psf.

    This is even less than the construction cost !!!

    The economics just isn't right.

    The problem is that Jurong West is so far away from town that it's as good as staying in Johor Bahru.

    But in Johor Bahru at least you can get much cheaper construction costs because they don't ban their own sand and their labourers are much cheaper. Hence Malaysian developers can still make money.

    However, if you apply Singapore construction costs to a Johor Bahru or Jurong West house, then it just doesn't add up.

    It's like asking a goldsmith to help you craft a piece of iron into a heart shape Valentine Day present for your girlfriend. The labour cost alone is even more than the cost of the iron. And then your girlfriend may not even appreciate the iron heart. Goldsmith's labour is expensive so should give him gold to craft and not iron.

  22. #22
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: URA mulls over monthly index on private home prices

    Hong Kong people are generally smart and practical. Prior to 1997 few thought of migrating to Singapore and most especially the better educated went to other cities of big countries eg Vancouver, San Fran, NY, Sydney etc. Singapore was considered too small, lacked opportunities and over regulated. Their dismal score of 1% out of all foreign buyers of properties here is not surprising - they got it right anyway !!! too much interference of a free market they are accustomed to.

  23. #23
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: URA mulls over monthly index on private home prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Singapore property is dirt cheap in comparing to those in HK. One would expect folks in HK will queue up to buy Singapore property. Wrong! I was surprised to find out the other days that despite a surge of buying of Sinagpore property by foregniers last years, only 1% of total foreign buying were by folks from HK. Lesson: there is so such thing as cheap or expensive, investors only care about upside potential! Folks in HK are good at speculative activity and they just don't see great upside potential in SInagpore property!
    Yao mo gao chor ah. Market down 10 years. Go up few months and measures come out fast (land release, new enbloc regulations, dev charge).

  24. #24
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: URA mulls over monthly index on private home prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Yao mo gao chor ah. Market down 10 years. Go up few months and measures come out fast (land release, new enbloc regulations, dev charge).

    you are right, property down 10 years only up a few months, gov started cooling measure due to people complained, who want to invest here in this way?
    everything also can complain to MP, bring into parliament, stock market down? did not kena 4D? .....real hopeless!

  25. #25
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: URA mulls over monthly index on private home prices

    Also developers must submit monthly sales data. Now URA toying with monthly report instead of quarterly. Soon all the Westerners and Middle Easterners will pull out and buy HK & Tokyo.

  26. #26
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: URA mulls over monthly index on private home prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Hong Kong people are generally smart and practical. Prior to 1997 few thought of migrating to Singapore and most especially the better educated went to other cities of big countries eg Vancouver, San Fran, NY, Sydney etc. Singapore was considered too small, lacked opportunities and over regulated. Their dismal score of 1% out of all foreign buyers of properties here is not surprising - they got it right anyway !!! too much interference of a free market they are accustomed to.
    Not really true that Singapore is over regulated. In fact, Singapore is the second freest economy in the world, after Hong Kong.

    http://app.mfa.gov.sg/pr/read_content.asp?View,6294,

    To say that Singapore is over regulated just because it is number 2 compared to Hong Kong, is like saying that Bill Gates is poor because he is number 2 compared to Warren Buffett (yes, their position has interchanged this year).

    Due to the sheer number of sour grapes in Singapore, the Government sometimes have no choice but to wayang wayang a bit.

    However, if you seriously track the residential property price index of these two Asian economies, you will find that they are almost identical twins. Just go to the respective websites below and look at the charts.


    Residential Price Index Comparison Between Singapore and Hong Kong between 1979 and 2004.

    Year...........Singapore...........Hong Kong

    1979................20...................20

    1989................50...................50

    1996(Peak)........185.................200

    1998(Crash).......120.................120

    2004(Pre-Boom)..110.................100

    Sources:

    Singapore 1960 to 2006
    http://www.redas.com/einformation/mt...vtmeasures.pdf

    Hong Kong 1979 to 2004
    http://business.fullerton.edu/financ...05.337_356.pdf

  27. #27
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: URA mulls over monthly index on private home prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    you are right, property down 10 years only up a few months, gov started cooling measure due to people complained, who want to invest here in this way?
    everything also can complain to MP, bring into parliament, stock market down? did not kena 4D? .....real hopeless!
    Hopeless for the speculator but good for Singapore's economy. We are driven by productivity not by speculation.

  28. #28
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: URA mulls over monthly index on private home prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Sure to liao money. Last tender only $78 psf, developers shrink.
    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Why $78 psf is because this piece of land is in westwood 99yr lease, which is close to the foreign workers dormitory and chinese ,Malay tomb in Lim Chu Kang.No a very desirable site lah!
    The Government did not award the Jurong West site lah.

    The Government is also mindful to keep property prices buoyant otherwise if the Integrated Resorts open amidst a downturn in property market, not very good publicity for Singapore.

    Business Times - 19 Mar 2008

    Jurong West landed plot not awarded

    THE government yesterday said that it's not awarding a landed housing parcel in Jurong West - because the bids were too low.

    When the tender for the 151,759 square foot site closed this month, there were just two bids. And the higher of the two was a low $11.8 million - or just $77.80 per square foot - in what was taken as a sign of an uncertain property market. That bid, from Boon Keng Development, was significantly below the $200-$250 psf of land area that analysts reckoned the site could fetch.

    The other bid came from Sunway Concrete Products, a unit of Malaysia-listed Sunway Holdings. It offered $10.3 million, or $68.10 psf of land area.

    Property analysts said then that there was a chance the government would not award the site, as has happened before when the highest bid was too low.

    In January, for example, the government decided not to sell a short-term office site at Aljunied because the sole bid was too low. The move followed a string of lower-than-expected offers for state land.

    'The decision is expected on the Jurong site, as the top bid was well below the market rate,' Cushman & Wakefield managing director Donald Han said yesterday. 'It would not have been justifiable to award the site, as it would have been a shockwave in terms of market value in that area.'

    It is estimated that 50 to 60 landed homes can be built on the 99-year leasehold site in Westwood Avenue.

    Copyright 2007 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.

  29. #29
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: URA mulls over monthly index on private home prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    The Government did not award the Jurong West site lah.

    The Government is also mindful to keep property prices buoyant otherwise if the Integrated Resorts open amidst a downturn in property market, not very good publicity for Singapore.
    May be for short term it can re-tender out to build foreign workers dormitory.

  30. #30
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: URA mulls over monthly index on private home prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    The Government did not award the Jurong West site lah.

    The Government is also mindful to keep property prices buoyant otherwise if the Integrated Resorts open amidst a downturn in property market, not very good publicity for Singapore.
    Gahmen got load of cash, good price SELL, no good price WAIT. These developers want to try their luck (think it is like CEO, can bid $1 and hope to get it), wait long long.

    As for many sellers, the same logic apply. Maybe a few need cash for other investments/purposes willing to lower the prices, for most who can hold, why sell? FD earns about 1% interest, net Rental yield easily in the range of 3% to 4%, mortgage rate about 2% (+-).

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