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Thread: How to play when you don't even know what is COV.

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    Default How to play when you don't even know what is COV.

    http://www.stproperty.sg/articles-pr...flats/a/156030

    Property players split on making public COVs for HDB resale flats

    [SINGAPORE] The issue of having cash over valuation (COV) in HDB resale transactions - once a political hot potato - is boggling the minds of property analysts and agencies again as latest flash estimates show that COVs have fallen to zero and may dip further into negative territory.

    ERA Realty key executive officer Eugene Lim echoed calls from the past to scrap the publishing of COV figures on concerns that negative COVs will cause a downward spiral of HDB resale prices.

    "How much cash under valuation, or CUV, is your seller looking at?" That's what buyers are asking the property agents now, Mr Lim said.

    COV is the cash premium that buyers pay in excess of the valuation of an HDB flat. The overall median COV for HDB resale flats slumped from $32,000 a year ago to hit zero last month.

    Mr Lim said that the HDB was trying to improve market transparency when it started publishing COV tables for the different estates and flat types to educate the public and address the perception that COVs were too high. "But people then started to use that as a benchmark and mark up their prices above it. The COV price becomes the registered price and the next valuation becomes higher.

    "Now, if the reverse catches momentum, many flat owners will suffer because the prices will shoot downwards. It's timely to take out the cash over valuation and cash under valuation figures. Just publish market price."

    Some members of Parliament have, in the past, suggested scrapping official COV figures as they believe it contributes psychologically to rising HDB resale prices.

    But the government had responded that people would calculate those figures themselves even if HDB did not publish them. The COV is not mandatory in a resale transaction and the HDB does not determine the resale price, which is agreed between a willing buyer and a willing seller.

    Some property analysts felt that COV remains relevant in today's market.

    Ong Kah Seng, director of R'ST Research, noted that COVs have a role to play, serving as a "brake to over-buying during average and buoyant market conditions", despite being blamed for being a psychological benchmark that drives COVs and selling prices higher.

    Even with the cooling measures and dampened buying sentiment, the COV mechanism can still act as a reference point for buyers and sellers, he said.

    "A zero or negative COV now (and going forward) will signal to buyers that resale flat prices seem quite affordable, and can reduce the possibility of sellers having to relent to endless requests for low or very low prices."

    Alan Cheong, director for research and consultancy at Savills Singapore, noted that "COVs have a role to play in setting the benchmark for subsequent valuations down the road" as valuations tend to be backward-looking.

    "They should leave COVs alone. There are many measures that are administrative in nature that choke the free market mechanism," he said. "Let's work within the existing framework and calibrate it."

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    http://sgyounginvestment.blogspot.fr...-years-to.html

    HDB resale prices from 1994 to 2013

    The year 1996 was the prelude to the Asian financial crisis. I'll skip all the nitty gritty of what exactly happened. If you're interested, you can search for Asian financial crisis and find out more about it. Briefly, it began with the Thai baht currency collapsing and the negative effect spread to the rest of the Asian countries.

    It'll be hard to remember how much HDB prices cost exactly during that time so I'll be using an indicator called HDB resale price index(RSI). This index tracks the average HDB resale prices in Singapore for each Quarter. The RSI was at a high of 136 in 1997 before it crashed to 95 in 1998. After that prices remain stagnant in the 95-110 range for 10 years until 2008.


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    http://asingaporeanson.blogspot.fr/2...ship-that.html

    The Truth About HDB Flat Ownership that Nobody Wants to Remember

    HDB Singapore is an enigma. When I was a young boy I could not understand the logic of '99 years' whenever the adults discussed about HDB flats. According to my parents who bought their HDB flat in the 70s, the agreement with HDB was that every flat 'owner' was allowed to occupy their flat for the period of 99 years after which the state has full rights to repossess the flat at no cost.


    That arrangement wasn't what I couldn't understand. It was straightforward enough just like how we buy cars in Singapore. There is a Certificate of Entitlement (COE) and that runs for 10 years. When the time is up, we say goodbye to the car unless we purchase a new set of COE at market price of that year. Simple enough. Whether or not we feel it is a fair system, we buy cars, lots of cars, to the extent the planning officers in the Land Transport Authority are tearing their hair apart under pressure from the government to regulate the ever increasing vehicle counts on road. Transportation is a key issue for elections, but so is housing.


    Our private property market seems to be functioning fine, a standard model of demand and supply. Our problem lies with public housing. Unlike ownership of cars where the relationship of entitlement ownership was clearly established right from the start, HDB seems to have misled their consumers regarding their rights of 'flat ownership'. That is because the government is unwilling bring Singaporeans back down to earth by reminding them they are owners of their HDB flats for only 99 years. Whether this is an act of compassion or the reluctance of giving up a political advantage remains to be seen.


    Each HDB flat 'owner' signed an agreement of lease. Not a strata title, not a land title. It is a fact. We are renting the flat from the government for 99 years. Even so, that is a benefit for every Singaporean because we are allowed to lock in a fixed rate rental for 99 years. That means each leaser is insured with the rental rates of the year they purchased their agreement no matter how the cost of land and building spike in future. If Singaporeans can not understand the benefits of such a scheme, just ask any Singaporeans renting a house in Australia how they have to cope with a rental increment every 6-12 months.


    So where did the problem lies? Remember, when you sell a car in Singapore, the value of the car will be less the amount of depreciation of the COE. Therefore (though it happened twice in recent history), it is very unlikely that a car owner is able to make a profit by selling a car he used for a few years. Shouldn't the selling of a lease-owned HDB flat follow the same logic?


    No. That will be cruel. That will mean that Singaporeans will have to be told they don't actually own a property but a lease which is transferable at purchase price less depreciation. The government therefore allows the dream to go on and even allow huge profit making for the transferring of lease which include a unique property phenomenon called Cash over valuation (COV). From there, Singaporeans are addicted to profiting that wasn't meant to be. To make it worse, they come out with the concept of Selective En-bloc Redevelopment (SERS) in which existing flat leasers have been given the benefits of surrendering the remaining value of their HDB flat lease at more value than the original 99 years lease in exchange for a new 99 year lease, at times with a modest amount of cash top up. That was the final nail to the coffin. From there, each Singaporean (and foreigner) is conditioned to believe that they can own a HDB flat forever and that one will never lose money by buying a HDB flat.


    The HDB has forgotten its role of a public housing provider. Today, it is just a political tool used by the incumbent to create the illusion that every Singaporean who owns a HDB flat is asset rich. In reality, the value of their lease is depreciating as we speak. Alas, every illusion has a sustainability issue. The only solution is creating an imploding population count and relying on the greater fool model to buy time. It will be interesting how it will turn out at the end.

    True of False.

    http://singaporenewsalternative.blog...ue-of-hdb.html

    Value of HDB flats at end of 99-year lease

    By Gerald Giam
    7 February 2014 | | 28 Comments | Print Print | Email Email

    All HDB flats are sold to Singaporeans on a 99-year lease. We are technically not home owners, but lessees.

    I asked the Minister for National Development, during the 20 January 2014 Parliament sitting, what the value of HDB flats would be once their leases expire. I also asked whether the pace of SERS — the Selective En Bloc Redevelopment Scheme — will be fast enough to replace the flats reaching the end of their lease.

    The Minister confirmed that the value of the flats will be zero at the end of their 99-year lease. He also indicated that the selection of sites and pace of SERS depended on factors including the site’s redevelopment potential. Implicit in what he said was that SERS is not a scheme intended solely to replace old flats reaching the end of their lease.

    He revealed that there are about 31,000 flats which are more than 40 years into their 99-year leases. This number will grow larger each year. It remains to be seen what the Government’s plans are for lessees whose flats approach the end of their lease.

    The full transcript of the question and answer are below.

    http://geraldgiam.sg/2014/02/value-o...99-year-lease/

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    Reasons for appreciation of HDB prices
    7. Now, let’s examine the likely reasons for the rapid increase in housing prices. The
    standard textbook answer would be to point to the imbalance in supply and demand.
    8. On the demand side, average nominal wages rose by 27%, only slightly outpacing the
    CPI which increased by 19%. The main factor driving demand would be the
    population increase of 800,000 persons, with real GDP growing by 43%. Demand
    was also fueled by monetary factors: money supply M2, M3 doubled during the
    period, with interest rates at ultra low levels. The appreciation in the S$ against the
    US$ added to the attractiveness of investing in S$ assets.
    9. In contrast, on the housing supply side, over the same period, the total stock of
    housing increased by only 61,000 units - around 5%. HDB dwelling units under
    management increased by a mere 23,000 units or 2.6% over a five year period.
    10. Given this large imbalance between demand and supply, not surprisingly, housing
    rents and prices rose. I would however like to highlight another contributory factor
    driving demand for housing – that of housing policy.

    http://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/cgi/vi...t=soe_research

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    Default Found where the COV get started.

    Despite the limited local and international research on the determinants of
    public resale housing prices, the works of Tu (2002) and Tu, et. al. (2002)
    implied that the public resale housing market is basically a self-determined
    housing market, and public resale housing prices are essentially driven by
    public housing policies

    http://epmesc.umac.mo/fba/irer/paper...15_132Sing.pdf

    To further promote the resale public housing market, the “Mortgage Loan
    Financing Scheme” was revised in April 1993. This scheme allows resale
    public housing purchasers to obtain mortgage loans of up to 80% of the
    purchase price or the market value of a housing unit, whichever is lower.
    Before this policy revision, the amounts of mortgages available for resale
    public housing were pegged at the HDB’s “posted prices,” which were fixed
    at historical values and priced very much below transacted prices. This
    change in mortgage loan financing has therefore provided a great boost to
    the public housing resale market, as purchasers are now able to obtain much
    larger mortgage amounts.
    Last edited by Arcachon; 07-03-14 at 18:27.

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    Default True

    Due to the large subsidies prevailing in the pricing of new public housing
    sold by the HDB, the average waiting time for these units was about seven
    years in the mid-1990s

    Got mine with 6 months.

    “CPF Housing Grant” policy was implemented in October 1994
    to encourage young households to purchase resale public housing units, Public especially those near their parents.

    Got 30k for my in law

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    http://sg.pagenation.com/?page_id=4982

    Historical: Median Combined Household Income > Cost of New 3 Room Flat (99 years lease) ~ Housing cost x of annual salary
    1960: $120 > $5,000 ~ 3.5x
    1970: $240 > $10,000 ~ 3.5x
    1980: $1,000 > $50,000 ~ 4.1x
    1990: $2,000 > $120,000 ~ 5.0x
    2000: $3,500 > $110,000 ~ 2.6x
    2010: $4,500 > $190,000 (600 sq. ft.) ~ 3.5x
    2012: $4,950 > $220,000 ~ 4x

    In the 1960s and 1970s, a family of 4 are happy to live in a 3 Room HDB Flats. Today, most are only happy if they are in a 4 Room HDB Flats with about 900 sq. ft. which will cost around $300,000.

    For Private Housing, the similar size home (99 years lease) could cost about $600,000 (3 times HDB BTO) in 2010.
    2010 Private Homes: $4,500 > $600,000 (600 sq. ft.) ~ 11x
    2010 Private Homes: $4,500 > $900,000 (900 sq. ft.) ~ 16.6x

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    http://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap64h.pdf

    Potential drivers of the property market

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    http://anthonyyeo82.wordpress.com/20...change-needed/

    Personally, I feel it is time for all those involved in HDB valuations to change their mindset – or do we have to wait for the day when COVs are more than 25 or 30 per cent of their eventual selling price?

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    Default HDB - Is the price a bargain?

    Last edited by Arcachon; 07-03-14 at 22:00.

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    Default I chose to tell you what I want you to know.

    http://www.srx.com.sg/srx/index.jsp?link=blog




    Ever wonder why COV is lowest now.

    COV is the result of control valuation by HDB, the market don't agreed with the valuation thus the COV.

    Now the BTO is de link do you think HDB is still controlling the valuation.

    HDB is an asset for SC, a channel for the Government to send their money to SC.

    Valuation 5 Oct 2012 SGD 595,000
    Valuation 28 Feb 2014 SGD 640,000

    640-595=45
    45/595=7.56%

    I put SGD 595,000 in the Bank what do I get.

    SGD 45,000 for 17 months.

    SGD 2647 PER MONTH = 5.3% A YEAR
    Last edited by Arcachon; 07-03-14 at 22:54.

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    Default Singapore’s ex-HDB CEO: During my time, HDB flats were 3X median annual salary

    When Mah Bow Tan was the Minister for National Development, HDB BTO prices were linked to HDB resale prices.

    Since Mr Khaw took over from Mr Mah, Mr Khaw has de-linked resale and BTO prices by varying the discounts for new flats.

    http://bambooinnovator.com/2013/03/2...annual-salary/

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    Before bashing HDB, the article should be clearer on why the:

    1. mother was unable to work to supplement the income (the children should be in their late teens or early 20s in 1992, and therefore able to look after themselves)
    2. family didn't apply for a smaller BTO flat and rent a flat while waiting for TOP
    3. son and son's wife didn't chip in to support the installment (by 1996, the children should be working)
    4. son and son's wife viewed only 30 flats (one week can easily cover 2-3 flats)
    5. son and son's wife rejected the queue number despite the dire situation
    6. etc

    If the above are correct, then I support HDB throwing out the family.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hyenergix View Post
    Before bashing HDB, the article should be clearer on why the:

    1. mother was unable to work to supplement the income (the children should be in their late teens or early 20s in 1992, and therefore able to look after themselves)
    2. family didn't apply for a smaller BTO flat and rent a flat while waiting for TOP
    3. son and son's wife didn't chip in to support the installment (by 1996, the children should be working)
    4. son and son's wife viewed only 30 flats (one week can easily cover 2-3 flats)
    5. son and son's wife rejected the queue number despite the dire situation
    6. etc

    If the above are correct, then I support HDB throwing out the family.
    I am happy someone get to read what I have read, sharing can only make life better.

    Information is just a few key stroke away, there are those who chose to read what other want them to read and there are those who read what they want to read and those who read to share.

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    Default Know the past to see the future better.

    By Cheryl Ong

    PROPERTY values are unlikely to slide in the longer term, if the Government continues with stable, clear-sighted policies, Law Minister K. Shanmugam has said.
    "(As) we move into a high-tech economy... we remain a safe centre for banking and financial services... where the Government does not move arbitrarily and acquire for no compensation. The Government doesn't chase people away," he said on Thursday.
    "If we can keep our policies right, in the longer term, if Singapore was a stock, buy it. And that means property prices will go up," Mr Shanmugam said in response to questions that cooling measures such as the Additional Buyers' Stamp Duty would weigh down property values.
    He was addressing about 1,700 property agents attending a ministerial dialogue organised by real estate firm PropNex at Kallang Theatre.
    He also noted in a Facebook post yesterday that he was optimistic about Singapore's future, as the thriving Asean economic community "will offer exciting economic and trade opportunities for us as a regional service hub".
    Headwinds in the property market, though, in part due to the cooling measures and Total Debt Servicing Ratio, do not mean buyers are unable to afford property, he added at the convention.
    Instead, some buyers may be wary and are holding back because of fears of a correction in prices.
    The Government's redevelopment plans for the Greater Southern Waterfront and Paya Lebar Airbase will also free up "prime superb-value land" and play a part in propping up property values, he said.
    That means that the role of property agents will grow in importance, as property prices rise.
    "You are talking about people having to commit millions of dollars, and I think a highly-trained professional who can help people get value for that... can have a tremendous amount of value," Mr Shanmugam said.
    "I think a lot more advisory work, a lot more analytical-type work and services will have to be started and provided."


    K Shanmugam Sc: https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?...9715066&type=1
    I went for a dialogue with about 1,700 property agents, organised by Propnex. They asked me, and I explained to them the government’s rationale behind some of the property cooling measures. A stable property market, which will have positive impact on our overall macroeconomic and social environment, will be in every one’s interest, including their own.

    I was asked for my views on the property market. I said that I will not be able to say what will happen to the market in the short term - whether it will go up or down. But fundamentally I am optimistic about Singapore and its future – provided we have political stability, good government, good economic growth, and good jobs for our people. Further as the ASEAN Economic Community takes off , it will offer exciting economic and trade opportunities for us as a regional service hub.

    Propnex also presented a donation of $100,000 to Community Chest at the dialogue. It was great to have met and listened to the agents – many were extremely warm and friendly and we took a lot of photos.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    When Mah Bow Tan was the Minister for National Development, HDB BTO prices were linked to HDB resale prices.

    Since Mr Khaw took over from Mr Mah, Mr Khaw has de-linked resale and BTO prices by varying the discounts for new flats.

    http://bambooinnovator.com/2013/03/2...annual-salary/
    the hdb de-linking problem puzzles me for some time.

    I remember Mr Khaw said that the de-linking had started more than 2 years ago, and I remember that the same Mr Khaw also said that the BTO price differ from place to place because for mature estates, the government has spent more money to build the amenities.

    the fact is that some remote BTOs are priced at about 300k for a 4rm, while in some popular places, a 4rm BTO still needs about 600k.

    how can one know if it it de-linking or not?
    what is the difference if it is not de-linked?

    one thing sure is that the BTO in mature estates are still overpriced.

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    Quote Originally Posted by lionhill View Post
    the hdb de-linking problem puzzles me for some time.

    I remember Mr Khaw said that the de-linking had started more than 2 years ago, and I remember that the same Mr Khaw also said that the BTO price differ from place to place because for mature estates, the government has spent more money to build the amenities.

    the fact is that some remote BTOs are priced at about 300k for a 4rm, while in some popular places, a 4rm BTO still needs about 600k.

    how can one know if it it de-linking or not?
    what is the difference if it is not de-linked?

    one thing sure is that the BTO in mature estates are still overpriced.
    Then don't buy mature estate loh. Want mature estate expect cheaper than non mature estate? There are choices. Just what choices ones wants. Not like there are no choice.
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    Quote Originally Posted by hyenergix View Post
    Before bashing HDB, the article should be clearer on why the:

    1. mother was unable to work to supplement the income (the children should be in their late teens or early 20s in 1992, and therefore able to look after themselves)
    2. family didn't apply for a smaller BTO flat and rent a flat while waiting for TOP
    3. son and son's wife didn't chip in to support the installment (by 1996, the children should be working)
    4. son and son's wife viewed only 30 flats (one week can easily cover 2-3 flats)
    5. son and son's wife rejected the queue number despite the dire situation
    6. etc

    If the above are correct, then I support HDB throwing out the family.

    Frankly I won't even think articles on TRS n OLS are real. Many are just twisted pieces re engineered to drive certain agenda.
    “Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.”
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    Quote Originally Posted by minority View Post
    Then don't buy mature estate loh. Want mature estate expect cheaper than non mature estate? There are choices. Just what choices ones wants. Not like there are no choice.
    my wonder is whether it is really delinking as claimed by Mr. Khaw?

    given the price gap, my bet is the one in less mature estate. One can buy one at the less mature place to rent out to others, and rent another one at a mature place for own stay.

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    Quote Originally Posted by lionhill View Post
    the fact is that ..... in some popular places, a 4rm BTO still needs about 600k. .
    just curious, which BTO is that ? Redhill ? balance Duxton unit ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by amk View Post
    just curious, which BTO is that ? Redhill ? balance Duxton unit ?
    Ghim Moh. still far from CCR in some people's mind, and it is around 10 minutes away from MRT.

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    Quote Originally Posted by lionhill View Post
    my wonder is whether it is really delinking as claimed by Mr. Khaw?

    given the price gap, my bet is the one in less mature estate. One can buy one at the less mature place to rent out to others, and rent another one at a mature place for own stay.
    delinking the growth. dont mean straight drop. only means wont go up so fast base on resale index in the area.
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    BTO 4 room in Woodland 234K before subsidy.

    BTO 4 room Punngol 239K before subsidy

    BTO 4 room bukit batok 284K before subsidy.

    So I think its still very affordable today.
    “Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.”
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    Quote Originally Posted by minority View Post
    BTO 4 room in Woodland 234K before subsidy.

    BTO 4 room Punngol 239K before subsidy

    BTO 4 room bukit batok 284K before subsidy.

    So I think its still very affordable today.
    PSF please, nowadays 4 room are unlike the past 105 sqm.

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