How Much Will Property Prices Fall in 2014?

[princess_morbucks]

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/much-proper...093412498.html

[Arcachon]

How to define property price fall?

1. When you buy at price A and sell at price B and B is less than A.
2. When A buy at price A and B buy later at price B and B is less than A.

When everyone sell and cannot buy, who want to sell.

When nobody sell how to fall.

[Ringo33]

So far I have only seen major property price correction happening AFTER a crisis has taken place, have never seen property price falling happening because people are talking about a possible crisis happening.

Having said that, in every property cycle, there will always be the weaker investors who will exit at the slightest bad news even if it is selling at loss.

[star]

If salary increase 3% to 5% per year while property price didn't drop and remain the same for the next two years, it is considered 6% to 10% drop for two years.

So price won't drop but remain the same.

[Wunderkind]

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/much-proper...093412498.html

Believe that the property market will undergo a mild correction not amounting to more than 5% this year unless there is a "black swan" event happening.

Nonetheless, the government is ready to intervene in the event of a major correction. They have the tools to arrest any impending crash. This gives a lot of assurance to investors and owners alike.

So, as long as you have the holding power to outlast the so-called 'soft landing", you will be fine.

[hyenergix]

Most probably flat this year for OCR and RCR, but with CCR correcting abt 5%, for pte property.

[hyenergix]

The period when a big bear was shouting crash turns out to be e peak of e cycle.

[CCR]

My prediction: index will drop 5 to 8% but those who try to buy will not be able to bottom fish, as transactions will be super low, so only those with contacts will be able to sniff out bargains....

Then many will be working during how come index drop, but seller still asking high prices, coz as one forummer say, see, already kena then cannot buy coz absd, TDSR, LTV, so might as well ride it out..... how many will have cash flow problem if no Crisis?

Yield is about 3% min. Even if interest rates goes up to 3% still breakeven, where is the motivation to Sell?

[Arcachon]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuMzAaNrbRI

[thomaspaine]

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/much-proper...093412498.html

Tricia Song wrote a super bearish article during the Asian financial crisis that I personally think accentuated the already bearish sentiment then. How I disliked her then .....

[Arcachon]

http://www.stasiareport.com/suppleme...asure-20130706

IF YOU have been considering taking up a home loan, the new lending limits that local banks must apply will probably have you wincing. And no wonder - they are one of the toughest sets of loan rules worldwide.

Not true, in china you can only buy one unit. Got money also cannot buy.

[thomaspaine]

http://www.stasiareport.com/suppleme...asure-20130706

IF YOU have been considering taking up a home loan, the new lending limits that local banks must apply will probably have you wincing. And no wonder - they are one of the toughest sets of loan rules worldwide.

Not true, in china you can only buy one unit. Got money also cannot buy.

Thanks, now I know what she looks like.

[Arcachon]

http://bit.ly/1poJ8Q4

select images

or http://bit.ly/1poJzdg

[minority]

Currently rental n resale is very weak. I can imagine the OCR comes up in 2015. OCR so far who will rent n got so many people want to rent?

The bear cycle already started.

[Warren49]

Currently rental n resale is very weak. I can imagine the OCR comes up in 2015. OCR so far who will rent n got so many people want to rent?

The bear cycle already started.

The time difference between OCR and RCR/CCR can be as little as 10 mins, with a rent difference of $1-2k. If I were a tenant with limited budget, I would choose OCR also, won't you?

[proud owner]

The time difference between OCR and RCR/CCR can be as little as 10 mins, with a rent difference of $1-2k. If I were a tenant with limited budget, I would choose OCR also, won't you?

when market turns, CCR tends to react faster ... lowering rent first ...
by the time the effect gets to OCR ... most tenants would have already found their home ..

[Warren49]

when market turns, CCR tends to react faster ... lowering rent first ...
by the time the effect gets to OCR ... most tenants would have already found their home ..

Let's use a practical eg. Say 3 bedder newton condo for $5,500 and Yishun condo for $3,500. Assuming a 10% fall in rental price, the newton condo's asking is now $5,000. Assuming Yishun condo's asking price drops by only $200 to $3,300, which is more likely to secure tenants?

Newton at $5,000 or Yishun at $3,300? Bearing also in mind that Yishun's rental is supported by HDB tenant pool.

[Arcachon]

Depend whether from the West or from the East. From the West they like to stay near to the people from the the West, from the east, if they have not stay in the West before they come to Singapore than $ is more important.

[proud owner]

Let's use a practical eg. Say 3 bedder newton condo for $5,500 and Yishun condo for $3,500. Assuming a 10% fall in rental price, the newton condo's asking is now $5,000. Assuming Yishun condo's asking price drops by only $200 to $3,300, which is more likely to secure tenants?

Newton at $5,000 or Yishun at $3,300? Bearing also in mind that Yishun's rental is supported by HDB tenant pool.

I understand where you are coming from.

my experience is that when mkt turns, (using your example), Newton will cut more than 10 pct, maybe 15 pct , while Yishun will cut 10 pct or less ..

if I were a tenant, I would still choose newton. even though Newton and yishun are only 10 mins train ride apart.

I would bargain newton to 4.5k ...

I know for a fact, recently a friend of mine at V shenton ... he used to pay 4.5k a mth ... negotiated with landlord and managed to get below 4k ...

[Ringo33]

Good properties located in good locations (I didnt say prime or CCR) will always fair better or even isolated by market over supply.

Usually during a over supply situation, those crappy units in crappy location that will first to nose dive because of difficulties finding tenants.

[NO_7]

Surrounding competition and amenities supported the price in a area.
Will demands remain weak in 5 to 10 years time in view of over supply?

[DC33_2008]

Do you mean One Shenton?

I understand where you are coming from.

my experience is that when mkt turns, (using your example), Newton will cut more than 10 pct, maybe 15 pct , while Yishun will cut 10 pct or less ..

if I were a tenant, I would still choose newton. even though Newton and yishun are only 10 mins train ride apart.

I would bargain newton to 4.5k ...

I know for a fact, recently a friend of mine at V shenton ... he used to pay 4.5k a mth ... negotiated with landlord and managed to get below 4k ...

[minority]

The time difference between OCR and RCR/CCR can be as little as 10 mins, with a rent difference of $1-2k. If I were a tenant with limited budget, I would choose OCR also, won't you?

It's relative. If u work I'm Cbd there is a big diff if u stay in upper bukir timah n Novena ot river valley . It's more than 10mins

[minority]

Let's use a practical eg. Say 3 bedder newton condo for $5,500 and Yishun condo for $3,500. Assuming a 10% fall in rental price, the newton condo's asking is now $5,000. Assuming Yishun condo's asking price drops by only $200 to $3,300, which is more likely to secure tenants?

Newton at $5,000 or Yishun at $3,300? Bearing also in mind that Yishun's rental is supported by HDB tenant pool.

Hdb tenant pool is limit d. N hdb tenant pool do not want to pay much. In ur comparison u also need to factor in hdb 5 room rental is 2500 . Won't the hdb tenant go for 2000-2500 hdb? Even more saving. N ocr have a lot of hdb!

[minority]

We can analyze to death. Fact is today rental market is slowing. So is resale. Spoke to few agent n agent friends. It's pretty tough time for them now. It's not easy to be still committed in this job given some did not close a deal in mths .

And rental is dropping . I can imagine the pain of the ocr when the units top. Who Will they rent to? People on the side lines be patient quite sure the bottom will come end this yr or next. Fire sales galore .

[Ringo33]

Most of the time, its the location of schools that determine where the expat families lives not so much where they work.

[minority]

Most of the time, its the location of schools that determine where the expat families lives not so much where they work.

It's also depends. Big units in ocr I agree coz those targets family. The mm studio I find ir questionable.

[Warren49]

It's also depends. Big units in ocr I agree coz those targets family. The mm studio I find ir questionable.

Well I have a 3 bedder at the Warren that I am renting out for $3.5K to a Korean family. How much can it dive down to? Max $2.8K?

As compared to Newton 3 bedder which is doing at, say $5.5K? How much can Newton dive down to?

[Ringo33]

Well I have a 3 bedder at the Warren that I am renting out for $3.5K to a Korean family. How much can it dive down to? Max $2.8K?

As compared to Newton 3 bedder which is doing at, say $5.5K? How much can Newton dive down to?

Lets put it this way, an expat family who are currently living in OCR area is not going to relocated to RCR or CCR just because rent in those area are falling and neither will they move out just because of a few hundred dollar if they enjoy living there they are.

[CCR]

The market correction will last till end 2015 max...

Even the bearish Barclays economist said so...

And based on our past historical records, 2 years is about right for a market correction.... if no crisis.

So either sell now and hope it drop at least 10-15% or else not worth to sell and rent. or just sit tight and wait for the good times to roll again..

For those who feel the market will drop 15% to 25% quickly sell now...