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Thread: Kuwait fund pulls out of bulk purchase of high-end homes

  1. #121
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Kuwait fund pulls out of bulk purchase of high-end homes

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Heard Kuwaiti fund is still in the process of finalising deal with Guocoland. I think a fair price will be around $2600psf instead of $3200psf. Let's see
    so that the fund could on sell it at $3200 psf and make a 20% profit for its bulk purchase

  2. #122
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Kuwait fund pulls out of bulk purchase of high-end homes

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    so that the fund could on sell it at $3200 psf and make a 20% profit for its bulk purchase
    Who knows will make or lose 20%. Both possible.

  3. #123
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Kuwait fund pulls out of bulk purchase of high-end homes

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    If construction cost is $450psf currently and inflation is getting higher at this rate, contraxtors will close down by year end. Then can wait longer for TOP. Also can resell the unit at higher price.
    That is precisely where our ppty markets are heading to.

  4. #124
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Kuwait fund pulls out of bulk purchase of high-end homes

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    That is precisely where our ppty markets are heading to.
    Can resell at higher prices? I don't mind man.

  5. #125
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Kuwait fund pulls out of bulk purchase of high-end homes

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    You are right that the property market typically trails the stock market by one year. This is because the property market is sluggish and has great inertia, whereas the stock market is nimble and reacts quickly to news.

    Hence if you analyse the two market trends, you will notice that the property market hasn't even trailed the stock market's upward explosion from 3000 points in Jan 2007 to 3905 in Oct 2007, so how can the property market even start trailing the stock market's decline yet?

    The property market's upward explosion for the past two years, i.e. 2006 and 2007 is actually trailing the stock market's upward explosion in 2005 and 2006, respectively.

    From Jan 2005 to Dec 2006, the Straits Times Industrial Index (STI) went up from 2000 points to 3000 points, an increase of 50%. This is approximately equal to the percentage increase in the property market for the last two years 2006 and 2007.

    As for the STI's overshot to 3905 all-time high in Oct 2007, the property market hasn't even have time to react to that yet, since property trails stocks by about one year.

    Hence today, as the stock market falls back down to around 2825 points, the property market should be at fair value.

    However, if the STI had stayed around 3905 for one year, then one year later (i.e. 2009) the property market will probably reach a super redhot level where you see Orchard Road properties being transacted at $7000 psf (instead of $4000 to $5000 psf), and mass market condos at $1,100 psf instead of ($800 psf), and HDB flats in popular areas crossing the $1 million mark.

    But that will not happen now because the STI has come down. So I think if the STI hovers around this level, the property market will also hover around this level.

    Unless, of course, the STI crashes to below 2000 points, then that's a different story altogether.
    Brilliant. This is a sort of comments that everyone of us wish to get in this forum. Very objective and relevant. Well done.

  6. #126
    Analyst Guest

    Cool Re: Kuwait fund pulls out of bulk purchase of high-end homes

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Brilliant. This is a sort of comments that everyone of us wish to get in this forum. Very objective and relevant. Well done.
    I don't know whether you are the same person who wrote the quote that you pasted in your reply, since there is no way to identify you.

    For property, as with stocks, it is all about sentiments. Whether one trails the other or what the time frame is for `traling' is not an exact science. Thus, the one year time frame is not a useful guide at all.

    And the stock market, as far as I can remember, did not end at 3900 plus on any one day, whether in Oct 07 or otherwise.

    All the comments on this forum, does nothing for the prices either way. Even the property experts from the real estate firms have been discredited, since they have a vested interest in talking things up.

    Only the big boy developers who put the money where there mouth is, by investing in developments, or choosing not to invest, that really can affect anything. The rest will just have to monitor, be nimble and get in or out while the going is good (or bad) accordingly.

  7. #127
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Kuwait fund pulls out of bulk purchase of high-end homes

    Quote Originally Posted by Analyst
    I don't know whether you are the same person who wrote the quote that you pasted in your reply, since there is no way to identify you.

    For property, as with stocks, it is all about sentiments. Whether one trails the other or what the time frame is for `traling' is not an exact science. Thus, the one year time frame is not a useful guide at all.

    And the stock market, as far as I can remember, did not end at 3900 plus on any one day, whether in Oct 07 or otherwise.

    All the comments on this forum, does nothing for the prices either way. Even the property experts from the real estate firms have been discredited, since they have a vested interest in talking things up.

    Only the big boy developers who put the money where there mouth is, by investing in developments, or choosing not to invest, that really can affect anything. The rest will just have to monitor, be nimble and get in or out while the going is good (or bad) accordingly.
    Actually I agree with you. Only the big boys/developers can influence the market. So let's see what's their next move. It can be up. It can be down too.

  8. #128
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Kuwait fund pulls out of bulk purchase of high-end homes

    Quote Originally Posted by Analyst
    I don't know whether you are the same person who wrote the quote that you pasted in your reply, since there is no way to identify you.

    For property, as with stocks, it is all about sentiments. Whether one trails the other or what the time frame is for `traling' is not an exact science. Thus, the one year time frame is not a useful guide at all.

    And the stock market, as far as I can remember, did not end at 3900 plus on any one day, whether in Oct 07 or otherwise.

    All the comments on this forum, does nothing for the prices either way. Even the property experts from the real estate firms have been discredited, since they have a vested interest in talking things up.

    Only the big boy developers who put the money where there mouth is, by investing in developments, or choosing not to invest, that really can affect anything. The rest will just have to monitor, be nimble and get in or out while the going is good (or bad) accordingly.
    Yes!! This is the best comment so far. Unlike all the purported self-congratulatory messages from those talking up the market.

  9. #129
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Kuwait fund pulls out of bulk purchase of high-end homes

    The STI stock market index has plunged about 20% from its peak, but the URA property index still seems to move up exponentially.

    How can this be?

    Let’s study the STI graph superimposed over the URA property index graph. Both graphs are scaled such that their time axes coincide, and their Asian financial crisis bottoms & dotcom peaks are at the same levels. STI is indicated by the dark blue line, while the pink line with blue crosses is for the URA index for condominiums (the other lines are for detached, semi-detached, terrace and apartments):

    http://www.salary.sg/historical-prop...2008-large.gif

    You should be able to see from the 2 graphs that the property bottom in end 1998 lagged the stocks bottom by about a quarter (i.e. 3 months). Similarly, the property peak in mid 2000 also lagged the stocks peak by about 1 to 2 quarters.

    Now, fast forward to end 2007. The stock market has clearly tanked, amidst high inflation and comparatively stagnant salaries. But property is apparently still moving up, up and up! This can’t continue.

    I hereby predict that property prices will plunge within the next 3 to 6 months. By at least 20%.

    Want more evidence? In the last month (February), property developers were so spooked by the worsening economy that they launched only 343 units in the whole country, out of which only a miserable 170 got sold (excluding ECs). Oh yeah, maybe it’s the Chinese New Year.

    References: URA news release and STI data in Yahoo! Finance.

  10. #130
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Kuwait fund pulls out of bulk purchase of high-end homes

    It's time to kill the speculators.
    Let them get a taste of their own medicine.
    SIBOR is going drop fast to 0.75%.

    When SIBOR hit 0.75%, there will be blood everywhere.
    Burn all these speculators.

    Kill kill kill!
    Die die die!
    Ha ha ha!

    Quote Originally Posted by The Straits Times

    Singapore interest rates likely to fall further
    Fed cut and robust Sing$ could push interbank lending rate below 1%

    Nicholas Fang
    The Straits Times
    Monday, 24 March 2008

    Singaporeans can expect cheaper mortgages but lower savings and fixed deposit rates in the months to come.

    This is after a move by the United States Federal Reserve to slash a key US interest rate last week.

    The Fed had cut three-quarters of a point off its federal funds rate, bringing it to 2.25%, to fight a mushrooming credit crisis and a slowing US economy.

    Economists in Singapore said the lowering of the Fed funds rate will have a knock- on effect in the Republic.

    The Singapore Interbank Offered Rate (Sibor), or the rate at which banks lend to one another, tends to track the Fed rate.

    Citigroup economist Kit Wei Zheng said: 'For Singapore rates, the trend is downwards. We expect the Fed to cut its rate to 1% and Singapore should follow with a lag.'



    He lowered his forecast for the Sibor, estimating it would fall to as low as 0.75% by the end of the third quarter, down from an earlier estimate of 1%.

    A recent report by DBS Group Research also forecast the Sibor would fall, to 0.83% in the second quarter, and remain at that rate through the second half before rising next year.

    The three-month Sibor fell to a 12-month low of 1.25% last Monday, before recovering to 1.425% on Thursday, ahead of the Good Friday public holiday.

    Mr Kit said Singapore rates were also affected by the Singapore dollar's appreciation against the US currency. He said the Singdollar is most probably at the top end of the secret trade-weighted band within which the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) guides the currency.

    'With the Singdollar expected to continue appreciating, MAS will aim to moderate it by flooding the market with liquidity, which will in turn pressure interest rates downwards,' he said.

    OCBC economist Selena Ling said another consequence of the strong Singdollar would be a high inflow of foreign capital into the Republic. 'This can also contribute to lower interest rates.'

    For consumers, the net result is both good and bad.

    Banks recently embarked on a mortgage loan war, with Maybank firing the first salvo last month with an aggressive three-year, fixed-rate package offered at 1.68% for the first year.

    DBS Bank and United Overseas Bank (UOB) have also unveiled attractive packages. UOB has one that offers a zero rate in the first year.

    And with Sibor-linked home loan package rates likely to head south too, it could be a good time to refinance mortgage loans, experts said.

    A DBS spokesman said: 'DBS offers transparent mortgage rates pegged to the Sibor and the CPF Ordinary Account rate, so our rates will move in tandem with market forces.'

    But there is also the possibility that savings and fixed deposit rates could slump as interest rates go down.

    OCBC's vice-president for group wealth management, Mr Fabian Lum, said the bank would review its deposit rates to keep them in line with prevailing market conditions.

    And while the bank has not changed its savings rate recently, it lowered its 12-month fixed deposit rate for amounts between $50,000 and $1 million to 1.2% a year from 1.4% earlier this month.

    DBS said that its savings deposit rates had not been adjusted since 2005, but added that its fixed deposit rates are always pegged to the interbank rate and would thus be adjusted accordingly.

    CIMB-GK economist Song Seng Wun said that the low interest rates did not reflect a lack of liquidity on the part of banks. 'The loans-deposit ratio is still very strong, so banks definitely have the money to lend,' he said.

    'But I think there is greater caution now, after what has happened in the US with the sub-prime crisis, and people are much more cautious nowadays when it comes to borrowing and lending money.'

  11. #131
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: Kuwait fund pulls out of bulk purchase of high-end homes

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Brilliant. This is a sort of comments that everyone of us wish to get in this forum. Very objective and relevant. Well done.
    Quote Originally Posted by Analyst
    I don't know whether you are the same person who wrote the quote that you pasted in your reply, since there is no way to identify you.

    For property, as with stocks, it is all about sentiments. Whether one trails the other or what the time frame is for `traling' is not an exact science. Thus, the one year time frame is not a useful guide at all.

    And the stock market, as far as I can remember, did not end at 3900 plus on any one day, whether in Oct 07 or otherwise.

    All the comments on this forum, does nothing for the prices either way. Even the property experts from the real estate firms have been discredited, since they have a vested interest in talking things up.

    Only the big boy developers who put the money where there mouth is, by investing in developments, or choosing not to invest, that really can affect anything. The rest will just have to monitor, be nimble and get in or out while the going is good (or bad) accordingly.
    Yes!! This is the best comment so far. Unlike all the purported self-congratulatory messages from those talking up the market.
    Oh mine! I just saw your comments and couldn't stop laughing.

    I was the one who posted the original analysis, but definitely not the one who said that my comments were "Brilliant ... objective and relevant ..."

    Where got so 无聊? Praise myself?

    Then in that case I can also say that the person praising you with the comment "Yes!! This is the best comment so far." is also yourself.

    Anyway regarding the STI, the all-time high was on:

    ................(Open).....(High).....(Low)......(Close)
    10-Oct-07 3,899.29 3,906.16 3,814.45 3,814.45

    The closing high was on:

    11-Oct-07 3,821.60 3,897.10 3,821.22 3,875.77

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