Property cooling moves show results

[princess_morbucks]

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/prem...sults-20131204

[SINGAPORE] The government's measures to cool the residential property market have had significant impact: Transaction volumes have plunged, new home loan sales have contracted and loan-to-value (LTV) ratios have improved.


"The series of property-related measures taken by the government over the past few years has dampened momentum in the market," said the Monetary Authority of Singapore Financial Stability Review 2013 yesterday.


But the government remains vigilant as price levels remain high, it said.
Despite slower sales, tender prices by developers have remained high. Last month's tender for two adjacent plots at Upper Serangoon View got eight bids each, with foreign developers continuing to outbid local players.

[GIG]

looks like there will be one more...maybe the final cooling
measures before year end.

[walkthetiger]

looks like there will be one more...maybe the final cooling
measures before year end.

only left developers need some cooling.

[catsick]

looks like there will be one more...maybe the final cooling
measures before year end.

I dont think so , if anything they are flagging an easing up now on the cooling measures as they actually begin to bite and the supply starts to hit ... the next move will be a relaxation on some of the stamp duties paid by citizens and prs

[reporter2]

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/prem...sults-20131204

Published December 04, 2013

Property cooling moves show results

By Siow Li Sen [email protected]


[SINGAPORE] The government's measures to cool the residential property market have had significant impact: Transaction volumes have plunged, new home loan sales have contracted and loan-to-value (LTV) ratios have improved.

"The series of property-related measures taken by the government over the past few years has dampened momentum in the market," said the Monetary Authority of Singapore Financial Stability Review 2013 yesterday.

But the government remains vigilant as price levels remain high, it said.

Despite slower sales, tender prices by developers have remained high. Last month's tender for two adjacent plots at Upper Serangoon View got eight bids each, with foreign developers continuing to outbid local players.

The increase in the private property price index has moderated since Q3 2009, with the average quarter-on-quarter rise of 0.67 per cent in the first three quarters of 2013 lower than the 0.70 per cent for 2012 and 1.43 per cent for 2011, the Review said.

Momentum has varied across different market segments. Prices of private residential properties in the Outside Central Region on average increased by 2.5 per cent per quarter in 2013. In contrast, prices in the Rest of Central Region and the Core Central Region have started to show some weakness, turning negative in Q3 2013.

Overall transactions have fallen by about a third while investment/speculative demand for home loans has halved.

Average monthly transactions fell to 2,100 units in the first 10 months of this year from 3,200 units last year. The fall in overall sales was driven by resale transactions, which fell by about half in 2013 (from an average of 1,100 units per month in 2012 to 600 units in 2013). New sales also dropped significantly to an average of 900 units per month between July and October 2013 (compared with an average of 1,600 units per month between 2011 and 2012) following the implementation of the Total Debt Servicing Ratio framework in end-June. Sub-sale activity has remained subdued.

The measures appear to have had a dampening effect on the growth of outstanding housing loans, with the year-on-year growth slowing from a peak of 22 per cent in September 2010 to 12 per cent in September 2013.

The volume of new housing loans, which reflects trends in overall demand in the property market, has contracted to $8.8 billion in Q3 2013 from $13.5 billion a year earlier.

The share of new housing loans with LTV ratios higher than 70 per cent has also fallen from a peak of 77 per cent in Q2 2010 to stabilise at about 66 per cent since 2012.

For outstanding housing loans, the share of loans with LTVs above 70 per cent has fallen from a high of 35 per cent in Q3 2009 to 26 per cent in Q3 2013. The share of housing loans in negative equity also remains negligible.

The average LTV ratio of outstanding housing loans was 47.3 per cent in Q3 2013. The asset quality of property-related loans remains robust with the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio at less than 0.5 per cent in Q3 2013.

Speculators seemed to have left the market in droves, with foreign buyers under 10 per cent. "Borrowers taking up a second or subsequent housing loan accounted for about 30 per cent of new housing loans in 2011. This share has dipped to 14 per cent in Q3 2013," said the Review.

The share of foreign purchases in total transactions continues to be small, at 9 per cent in Q3 2013 following the implementation of additional buyer stamp duty.

Furthermore, the average loan tenure of new housing loans has shortened from 30 years in Q3 2012, to about 24 years.

While the NPL ratio for housing loans remains low, close monitoring is warranted, it said.

"Strains on borrowers can quickly materialise if the economic outlook and employment conditions worsen, or interest rates - and therefore mortgage repayments - increase.

The vast majority of mortgage loans offered by financial institutions in Singapore are floating-rate packages. As some households may have over-leveraged in order to buy properties which are priced higher now than before, strains can quickly materialise if interest rates rise after being at a low level for a prolonged period of time."

The Monetary Authority of Singapore estimates that about 5-10 per cent of borrowers have monthly debt-servicing burden greater than 60 per cent and that the percentage of over-leveraged households could increase to 10-15 per cent should mortgage rates rise by 300 basis points.

The Review also noted the ample supply situation. In Q3 2013, there was a total supply of about 84,900 uncompleted private residential units from projects in the pipeline, an increase of about 13 per cent compared with the average supply in the last three years. Of these uncompleted units, about 37 per cent remained unsold in Q3 2013.

Apart from these, there were also 12,400 executive condominium (EC) units in the pipeline.

In addition, another 10,000 units will soon be added to the pipeline supply. In all, there will be about 107,400 private housing and EC units in the pipeline, many of which are expected to be completed over the next three to four years.

"While the property-related measures taken over the past few years have dampened momentum in the property market, vigilance is needed.

"Price levels remain high. The government will continue to monitor the property market closely, and if necessary, step in to ensure stability and sustainability in the property market," the Review said.

[auroraborealis]

they just dont get it; measures cannot affect prices
they artifically suppressed demand so transaction volume fall
unless there's external crisis that impact SG macro environment else no significant y-o-y price fall can be expected in most areas

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/prem...sults-20131204

[SINGAPORE] The government's measures to cool the residential property market have had significant impact: Transaction volumes have plunged, new home loan sales have contracted and loan-to-value (LTV) ratios have improved.


"The series of property-related measures taken by the government over the past few years has dampened momentum in the market," said the Monetary Authority of Singapore Financial Stability Review 2013 yesterday.


But the government remains vigilant as price levels remain high, it said.
Despite slower sales, tender prices by developers have remained high. Last month's tender for two adjacent plots at Upper Serangoon View got eight bids each, with foreign developers continuing to outbid local players.

[lajia]

They flood with supply, and that in turn, affect the pricing. But it is of course a slower process than compared to any crisis. Exactly what they want, take care of real demand with the supply of EC and BTO and then CM to get rid of unwanted demand, those with 2nd, 3rd or 4th purchases.....

Now the next phase come where they will not hesitate to stop supply if necessary.

The bad thing of this is their bad foresight on the developer aspects. They fail to exercise curb on developer side which is why cost remain high...or they artificially allow this to happen... only they will know themselves.

they just dont get it; measures cannot affect prices
they artifically suppressed demand so transaction volume fall
unless there's external crisis that impact SG macro environment else no significant y-o-y price fall can be expected in most areas

[catsick]

they just dont get it; measures cannot affect prices
they artifically suppressed demand so transaction volume fall
unless there's external crisis that impact SG macro environment else no significant y-o-y price fall can be expected in most areas

I think they do get it ! they have very much slowed down the rapid rises we have seen , and the huge supply increase is going to have a big effect between now and 2017

[walkthetiger]

The bad thing of this is their bad foresight on the developer aspects. They fail to exercise curb on developer side which is why cost remain high...or they artificially allow this to happen... only they will know themselves.

Try asking the developer boss about "colluding"....haha

[kane]

foreign developers are willing to do it at razor thin margins to get a foothold in this market. If market suddenly reaccelerates, they suddenly hit jackpot. So how is it possible to cool these things?

[blackjack21trader]

I got something in my mind dunno whether should say or not

[blackjack21trader]

I got something in my mind dunno whether should say or not

I think better not, let them figure it out themselves.

[princess_morbucks]

I think better not, let them figure it out themselves.

Aiyo.....why u like to keep the whole world in suspense?
Just speak your mind la.
Sharing is caring ( according to mermaid ), so after sharing , you will feel good and more handsome .

[blackjack21trader]

Aiyo.....why u like to keep the whole world in suspense?
Just speak your mind la.
Sharing is caring ( according to mermaid ), so after sharing , you will feel good and more handsome .

ok la just tell for you only...I think the Chinese have no choice but to buy assets overseas due to FED's QE. FED's QE COULD have resulted in pockets of high inflation within China but kept away from our eyes. These pockets of high inflation is bad for the RMB as it actually devalue the purchasing power of RMB as time goes by. Nobody from the outside can tell as the forex is controlled there.

Because of this, I believe FED will continue to press on as they have higher intelligence surveillience over the World currency movement.

The Chinese also not stupid, they will continue to buy up businesses or assets overseas AGGRESSIVELY to counter this trend and protect the RMB.

It reminded me of a situation I was in in the Phillipines when I was a young man. I could not exchange other currencies for peso. They only wanted US$ despite peso being their legal tender.

I have more revelation, but I think I better stop here. I have revealed enough for the dumbs.


Just My Humble Opinion Only. In no way am I an Economist or trained in Economics.

[blackjack21trader]

ok la just tell for you only...I think the Chinese have no choice but to buy assets overseas due to FED's QE. FED's QE COULD have resulted in pockets of high inflation within China but kept away from our eyes. These pockets of high inflation is bad for the RMB as it actually devalue the purchasing power of RMB as time goes by. Nobody from the outside can tell as the forex is controlled there.

Because of this, I believe FED will continue to press on as they have higher intelligence surveillience over the World currency movement.

The Chinese also not stupid, they will continue to buy up businesses or assets overseas AGGRESSIVELY to counter this trend and protect the RMB.

It reminded me of a situation I was in in the Phillipines when I was a young man. I could not exchange other currencies for peso. They only wanted US$ despite peso being their legal tender.

I have more revelation, but I think I better stop here. I have revealed enough for the dumbs.


Just My Humble Opinion Only. In no way am I an Economist or trained in Economics.

I can only tell you that right now in this generation, Only Singapore Dollar and property is safe from any economic accidents or currency wars. The reason being S$ is managed with a basket of world currencies. For the other Asian economies, it is too late for them to accumulate this characteristic now.

Disclaimers: I am not an economist. These are purely my PERSONAL OPINION ONLY.

[blackjack21trader]

I can only tell you that right now in this generation, Only Singapore Dollar and property is safe from any economic accidents or currency wars. The reason being S$ is managed with a basket of world currencies. For the other Asian economies, it is too late for them to accumulate this characteristic now.

Disclaimers: I am not an economist. These are purely my PERSONAL OPINION ONLY.

Just ask yourselves one simple question. China is so big, no lack of opportunity to acquire lands or businesses within the mainland. BUT then why are they still so adamant in wanting to acquire AAA assets like Singapore properties ?


THINK........

[indomie]

Just ask yourselves one simple question. China is so big, no lack of opportunity to acquire lands or businesses within the mainland. BUT then why are they still so adamant in wanting to acquire AAA assets like Singapore properties ?


THINK........

US loves free market, where they can behave like a playground bully without having teachers to supervise. That's why they can successfully manipulate gold market. However, sg property is regulated. The chinese investors know this fact. Their money will be protected here in sg as much as sg citizen would. However time is running out. Sg cannot offer foreigners wealth protection for free forever. That's why they rush to invest now.

[newbie11]

http://www.chinamoneypodcast.com/201...one-deciphered

Next outflow of money to Aaa countries?

[blackjack21trader]

http://www.chinamoneypodcast.com/201...one-deciphered

Next outflow of money to Aaa countries?

Thanks for sharing. This confirmed my suspicion that China is trying to model after our policies.

[blackjack21trader]

US loves free market, where they can behave like a playground bully without having teachers to supervise. That's why they can successfully manipulate gold market. However, sg property is regulated. The chinese investors know this fact. Their money will be protected here in sg as much as sg citizen would. However time is running out. Sg cannot offer foreigners wealth protection for free forever. That's why they rush to invest now.

Good logic. I never thought of it this way. Thanks for sharing, good brother indomie