Chart of the Day: Check out how much private homes will be completed by 2015

[princess_morbucks]

http://sbr.com.sg/residential-proper...completed-2015

Analysts fear it's too much.
According to Nomura, sentiments have turned more cautious and the market is rightly concerned about the projected surge in completions.
"About 9,000 units of non-landed private homes [excluding executive condos (EC)] were completed in 9M13 and we are projecting another 28,570 units to be completed by end-2014F, about 51% of which are located in the outside central region (OCR, a proxy for the mass-market segment)."
Nomura said that while a lot has already been said about the potential impact on the rental market, they believe the impact on the secondary market could also be significant, notwithstanding the introduction of sellers’ stamp duty (SSD) in February 2010.

[thomastansb]

Nice chart. CCR is going to suffer next year. Altez, Skysuites, 76 Shenton, Robinson suites.

http://sbr.com.sg/residential-proper...completed-2015

Analysts fear it's too much.
According to Nomura, sentiments have turned more cautious and the market is rightly concerned about the projected surge in completions.
"About 9,000 units of non-landed private homes [excluding executive condos (EC)] were completed in 9M13 and we are projecting another 28,570 units to be completed by end-2014F, about 51% of which are located in the outside central region (OCR, a proxy for the mass-market segment)."
Nomura said that while a lot has already been said about the potential impact on the rental market, they believe the impact on the secondary market could also be significant, notwithstanding the introduction of sellers’ stamp duty (SSD) in February 2010.

[minority]

http://sbr.com.sg/residential-proper...completed-2015

Analysts fear it's too much.
According to Nomura, sentiments have turned more cautious and the market is rightly concerned about the projected surge in completions.
"About 9,000 units of non-landed private homes [excluding executive condos (EC)] were completed in 9M13 and we are projecting another 28,570 units to be completed by end-2014F, about 51% of which are located in the outside central region (OCR, a proxy for the mass-market segment)."
Nomura said that while a lot has already been said about the potential impact on the rental market, they believe the impact on the secondary market could also be significant, notwithstanding the introduction of sellers’ stamp duty (SSD) in February 2010.

the way I read this is CCR will raise coz over supply will be in OCR in 2015. RCR is flat. so good luck to OCR…. the tsunami is coming.

[玉格格]

the way I read this is CCR will raise coz over supply will be in OCR in 2015. RCR is flat. so good luck to OCR…. the tsunami is coming.

yeah ...shd rental suffer, OCR will get the greatest hit since they form > 50% of the total supply in the next 1-2 yrs.
& the situation will be worse if CCR/RCR lowers their rental expectations to tat of OCRs.

[Ringo33]

yeah ...shd rental suffer, OCR will get the greatest hit since they form > 50% of the total supply in the next 1-2 yrs.
& the situation will be worse if CCR/RCR lowers their rental expectations to tat of OCRs.

hard to say. If majority of OCR home buyers are HDB upgraders or SPR being push out of HDB market, then it should not be a concern. IMO OCR property are more related to the price of HDB resale flat..

[princess_morbucks]

Will OCR rental demand be more than supply.
That is the question we have to ask.

With many FTs coming to SG, especially those who bring their families along, developments near international schools will be in demand.
FTs who first come to SG will tend to prefer to stay in developments that their contemporaries reside.

[ichigo55]

OCR forms 50% of the numbers here ... good luck!
I believe CCR and RCR will hold up and drop will be much less significant as the gap with OCR is very small now.

[玉格格]

hard to say. If majority of OCR home buyers are HDB upgraders or SPR being push out of HDB market, then it should not be a concern. IMO OCR property are more related to the price of HDB resale flat..

as long as one is buying for ownstay n nid not depends on rental for mthly repayment, a "crash" will not really hit u whether u hv bought a ccr/rcr or ocr.
I dun see y an owner adopting a long term approach shd be unduly concerned over a short term "book loss".

however, if one doesn't hv sufficient buffer & hv bought something expensive for investment purpose, he will hv to be wary liao lor ... esp if it is OCR ppty where it is oso under the pressure fm recession promotion by CCR.

[Ringo33]

OCR forms 50% of the numbers here ..

i think the proportion has always been the case because there are more people living in OCR than other region. And I also believe higher percentage of OCR property are also for own stay.

[Singleton]

Nice chart. CCR is going to suffer next year. Altez, Skysuites, 76 Shenton, Robinson suites.

Do not understand, why only these specific condos which are located in happening areas and lots of potential in the surroundings?

Would think it will depend on the areas whether CCR or OCR, the overall supply nos are not so relevant when it comes to individual projects. Projects whether in CCR or OCR that have the usual X factors will continue to be relatively hot.

[princess_morbucks]

I think the OCR condos near MRT and international schools will be safe.
There will always be a demand for these condos especially for the bigger units, 3 bedder will be in high demand with FT with families.

[玉格格]

hmm ... I wonder wat proportion of those OCRs units r actually < 5 mins fm the mrt ...

[indomie]

Property now is a storage of wealth. People rather see their money in property than bank cash deposit. So I my opinion, because there are so many properties around, doesn't mean there is an oversupply. As along as sg economy is growing, the demand for property is still growing. For example, how many of us still dream of owning 10 or 15 properties.

[Ringo33]

hmm ... I wonder wat proportion of those OCRs units r actually < 5 mins fm the mrt ...

I think what is more important is how many new MRT stations will be located in OCR because property around existing MRT station has already priced in that MRT factor, so if there is any correction, it will still get affected.

On the other hand if there is a new mrt station being build in a new site, then property around those could possible rise even during downturn.

[catsick]

The other thing to consider is the huge supply also in HDB completions which are also mainly OCR, so the OCR will get a double whammy , a lot of this ocr supply are shoebox units in huge numbers which is a totally untested market , I think all the stuff in the ccr will fill up at lower rents , there will be a load of 1 bed and studios in the ocr which will lie empty, unable to get any tenants and this is the stuff that has been sold at crazy psf prices due to low quantum ......

[Ringo33]

The other thing to consider is the huge supply also in HDB completions which are also mainly OCR, so the OCR will get a double whammy , a lot of this ocr supply are shoebox units in huge numbers which is a totally untested market , I think all the stuff in the ccr will fill up at lower rents , there will be a load of 1 bed and studios in the ocr which will lie empty, unable to get any tenants and this is the stuff that has been sold at crazy psf prices due to low quantum ......

BTO flats are buld to order, meaning there are already committed buyers (first timer mostly) buying for own stay and they are for rent or for sale during the 5 years MOP.

It wont be a concern

[玉格格]

The other thing to consider is the huge supply also in HDB completions which are also mainly OCR, so the OCR will get a double whammy

the profile of HDB tenants is totally a diff league fm mm tenants. but it will be interesting to see how many of these 3 rm hdb tenants will be tempted rent mm condo if pricing become similar when there is a supply overdose in the next 1-2 yrs.

a lot of this ocr supply are shoebox units in huge numbers which is a totally untested market , I think all the stuff in the ccr will fill up at lower rents , there will be a load of 1 bed and studios in the ocr which will lie empty, unable to get any tenants and this is the stuff that has been sold at crazy psf prices due to low quantum ......

take for example.

say currently, CCR tenanting at $3.5k/mth, rcr $2.8k/mth, ocr $2.1k/mth & 3 rm hdb $1.9k/mth.

when these new launches top, there might not be enuff tenants for all the supply. & ppl will start to laylong ...

if ccr willing to accept $3k/mth, no one will rent rcr at 2.8k, so rcr oso hv to laylong. if rcr accept $2.2k/mth, ocr will oso hv to laylong ...

so now the qn is, will ocr mm become cheaper den 3rm hdb bo?

[玉格格]

BTO flats are buld to order, meaning there are already committed buyers (first timer mostly) buying for own stay and they are for rent or for sale during the 5 years MOP.

It wont be a concern

EC top is more detrimental den BTO cos the proportion of resale hdb out in the mkt will be a lot more.

[thomastansb]

That is in the past. Nowadays, a lot more people buy OCR for investment because of its lower price and better than expected rental. Those OCR with MRT studio is fetching rental of 3.2 to 3.5k. My Clift is only doing a 4k. Somemore, my Clift is bigger than the OCR studio. So don't be surprised if OCR get hit as badly as CCR when crisis comes.

i think the proportion has always been the case because there are more people living in OCR than other region. And I also believe higher percentage of OCR property are also for own stay.

[thomastansb]

I have read reports saying that OCR with MRT vs RCR with MRT vs CCR with MRT is very close in rental. It is more like CCR 4k, RCR 3.7k, OCR 3.4k.

But those OCR without MRT, of course suffer la. Maybe 2.2k a month.

the profile of HDB tenants is totally a diff league fm mm tenants. but it will be interesting to see how many of these 3 rm hdb tenants will be tempted rent mm condo if pricing become similar when there is a supply overdose in the next 1-2 yrs.


take for example.

say currently, CCR tenanting at $3.5k/mth, rcr $2.8k/mth, ocr $2.1k/mth & 3 rm hdb $1.9k/mth.

when these new launches top, there might not be enuff tenants for all the supply. & ppl will start to laylong ...

if ccr willing to accept $3k/mth, no one will rent rcr at 2.8k, so rcr oso hv to laylong. if rcr accept $2.2k/mth, ocr will oso hv to laylong ...

so now the qn is, will ocr mm become cheaper den 3rm hdb bo?

[玉格格]

I have read reports saying that OCR with MRT vs RCR with MRT vs CCR with MRT is very close in rental. It is more like CCR 4k, RCR 3.7k, OCR 3.4k.

But those OCR without MRT, of course suffer la. Maybe 2.2k a month.

r u refering to mm when u quoted ccr 4k, rcr 3.7k & ocr 3.4k?
cos seems like they r not while the 2.2k is a typical mm rate in some ocr.

[NO_7]

In term of units/km in OCR vs CCR, OCR is still far from CCR.
With so many MRT stations coming up, within 400m radius range from station could consider as prime location.
So wat is the ratio of Sg vs PR vs FT in future will determine the market trends. Lesser landlord vs more tenant or the other way round.

[thomastansb]

I got this from URA for Optima. At Tanah Merah. I just took the last 6 months rental.


OPTIMA @ TANAH MERAH TANAH MERAH KECHIL AVENUE 16 Non-landed Properties 1 3,500 400 to 500 Sep-13
OPTIMA @ TANAH MERAH TANAH MERAH KECHIL AVENUE 16 Non-landed Properties 1 3,250 400 to 500 Jun-13
OPTIMA @ TANAH MERAH TANAH MERAH KECHIL AVENUE 16 Non-landed Properties 1 3,500 400 to 500 Jul-13
OPTIMA @ TANAH MERAH TANAH MERAH KECHIL AVENUE 16 Non-landed Properties 1 3,050 400 to 500 Oct-13
OPTIMA @ TANAH MERAH TANAH MERAH KECHIL AVENUE 16 Non-landed Properties 1 3,000 400 to 500 Jul-13
OPTIMA @ TANAH MERAH TANAH MERAH KECHIL AVENUE 16 Non-landed Properties 1 3,100 400 to 500 Oct-13

r u refering to mm when u quoted ccr 4k, rcr 3.7k & ocr 3.4k?
cos seems like they r not while the 2.2k is a typical mm rate in some ocr.

[玉格格]

I got this from URA for Optima. At Tanah Merah. I just took the last 6 months rental.

wah! I nvr noe optima is fetching such high rental! shd hv got urban vista instead

but these > $3k for OCR mm is not a lot rite? many near mrt ocr r still in the range of ard 2.5k ...

[radha08]

with MM asking this kind of price no wonder hdb rental so high

[Proplive123]

Nowday is very different from the past. Young couple with condo living aspiration doesn't care much about location. As long as they manage to get their first condo within right budget.
Even HDB upgrader or pending MOP already forming big pool of OCR buyers.

[thomastansb]

As long as got MRT, average can hit 3k for OCR. RCR is around 3.5 to 3.8k. CCR easily 4k. I am referring to studio.

But a CCR studio 2x of OCR studio but the rental is only slightly higher. So which one make more investment sense?

wah! I nvr noe optima is fetching such high rental! shd hv got urban vista instead

but these > $3k for OCR mm is not a lot rite? many near mrt ocr r still in the range of ard 2.5k ...

[玉格格]

As long as got MRT, average can hit 3k for OCR. RCR is around 3.5 to 3.8k. CCR easily 4k. I am referring to studio.

But a CCR studio 2x of OCR studio but the rental is only slightly higher. So which one make more investment sense?

u reminded me of a comment someone made at duo thread.
3 units of inflora mm (rental 3 x $2k) cost the same as 1 unit of one bedder at duo (rental lower den $6k, mayb 4.5k?).
if u hv 1.35mil to invest, which will u choose for both capital appreciation n rental yield?
do u tink quantum > location?

[DC33_2008]

Key question is : "Which one can rent out easier?"

u reminded me of a comment someone made at duo thread.
3 units of inflora mm (rental 3 x $2k) cost the same as 1 unit of one bedder at duo (rental lower den $6k, mayb 4.5k?).
if u hv 1.35mil to invest, which will u choose for both capital appreciation n rental yield?
do u tink quantum > location?

[indomie]

Key question is : "Which one can rent out easier?"

Of course inflora. There are more people on a shoe string budget than high rollers.