Mass-market home prices predicted to slip 5-15% in 2014

[lifeline]

http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/mas...062100283.html

Mass-market home prices predicted to slip 5-15% in 2014
Singapore Business Review


Will there also be a drop in posh home prices?
According to OCBC Investment Research, while the Fed Fund rate is expected to stay at low levels until at least 2015, it expects increasing caution to set in as the overhang from government measures remains in play and the market grapple with an onerous pipeline of physical supply coming ahead.
Over FY14, OCBC's forecast for mass-market residential prices is a dip of 5%-15% and 0%-10% fall for high-end residential prices.
Here's more from OCBC:
In light of the subdued outlook for the domestic residential sector, we favor large-cap developers with strong balance sheets and diversified exposure across regional real estate markets. Our top picks in the space are CapitaLand, rated BUY with a fair value estimate of S$3.77 (30% RNAV disc.), and Keppel Land, rated BUY with a fair value estimate of S$4.09 (30% discount to RNAV).

[radha08]

oh dear thats the worst news i heard today oh dear

[auroraborealis]

take it easy... The general rule of any market is that it won't go the consensus way

When everybody expect tapering, no tapering
When everybody expect rally, no rally
When everybody expect crash, no crash

[Rysk]

http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/mas...062100283.html
Mass-market home prices predicted to slip 5-15% in 2014

No wonder "Owners in the West to beware when buying overpriced condo like the J-Gateway!!"

[Ringo33]

No wonder "Owners in the West to beware when buying overpriced condo like the J-Gateway!!"

when someone has no money to invest, everything is overpriced. Thats the hard facts of life, so no hard feelings.

[mermaid]

No wonder "Owners in the West to beware when buying overpriced condo like the J-Gateway!!"

come to tink of it, JG became the last proj to sell at record high.

[lifeline]

oh dear thats the worst news i heard today oh dear

Dun worry la Radha!
Regardless of the market direction, you should not be too affected cos :
1. Own stay
2. Good entry price
3. Nice unit with large patio facing outwards = landed feel
4. Dun think prices will correct too much (if any in the first place), barring external factors.

Cheers,
lifeline

[PC08]

I interpret it as still bullish? CapitaLand and KepLand have upsides!

[radha08]

Dun worry la Radha!
Regardless of the market direction, you should not be too affected cos :
1. Own stay
2. Good entry price
3. Nice unit with large patio facing outwards = landed feel
4. Dun think prices will correct too much (if any in the first place), barring external factors.

Cheers,
lifeline

i know la bro....just trying to act dramatic...make the forum more interesting

[lifeline]

i know la bro....just trying to act dramatic...make the forum more interesting

we also know you very drama wan la

[radha08]

we also know you very drama wan la

ha ha ha ha ha...as long as singapore NO typhoon i NO scared

[Rysk]

come to tink of it, JG became the last proj to sell at record high.

Good luck to the JG buyers..

[mermaid]

Good luck to the JG buyers..

if capital appreciation & rental yield failed to meet expectations, owners LLST liao lor~

[EBD]

Good luck to the JG buyers..

Well we know one fanboy here will be safe if prices really do drop.

Talk so much, but when pushed, never commit to saying they bought.

[chestnut]

Factors affecting property prices

The UK housing market is quite volatile. In the past few decades we have seen two major booms and busts. *This is a look at factors that influence the housing market and house prices.

Economic Growth. Demand for housing is dependent upon income. With higher economic growth and rising incomes people will be able to spend more on houses; this will increase demand and push up prices. In fact, demand for housing is often noted to be income elastic (luxury good); rising incomes leading to a bigger % of income being spent on houses. Similarly in a recession, falling incomes will mean people can’t afford to buy and those who lose their job may fall behind in their mortgage payments and end up with their home repossess.
Unemployment. Related to economic growth is unemployment. Clearly when unemployment is rising, less people will be able to afford a house. But, even the fear of unemployment may discourage people from entering the property market.
Interest Rates. Interest rates affect the cost of monthly mortgage payments. A period of high interest rates will increase cost of mortgage payments and will cause lower demand for buying a house. High interest rates make renting relatively more attractive to buying. Interest rates have a bigger effect if homeowners have large variable mortgages. For example, in 1990-92, the sharp rise in interest rates caused a very steep fall in UK house prices because homeowners couldn’t afford the rise in interest rates.
Consumer Confidence. Confidence is important for determining whether people want to take the risk of taking out a mortgage. In particular expectations towards the housing market is important; if people fear house prices could fall, people will defer buying.
Mortgage availability. In the boom years of 1996-2006, many banks were very *keen to lend mortgages. They allowed people to borrow large income multiples (e.g. five times income). Also banks required very low deposits (e.g. 100% mortgages). This ease of getting a mortgage meant that demand for housing increased as more people were now able to buy. * However, since the credit crunch of 2007, *banks and building societies struggled to raise funds for lending on the money markets. Therefore, they have tightened their lending criteria requiring a bigger deposit to buy a house. This has reduced the availability of mortgages and demand has fallen.
Supply. In the Irish property boom of 1996-2006, an estimated 700,000 new houses were built. When the property *market collapsed, the market was left with a fundamental oversupply. Vacancy rates reached 15%, and therefore with supply greater than demand, prices fell. (Irish house prices fall 50%)

http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/37...ousing-market/

Of course for Singapore - must include the population tap. Hahahaha

[Rysk]

Well we know one fanboy here will be safe if prices really do drop.

Talk so much, but when pushed, never commit to saying they bought.

But one thing for sure when we talking about when is the right time to sell..

Well, I had mentioned before since last year that..
"When MR B (R33) finally bought his.. That's the time everyone should start to sell soon!" (for those who have been thinking of selling..)

[PC08]

Wow, you guys combine force bully Ringo har? He so jia lat meh? Looks OK to me.

[EBD]

But one thing for sure when we talking about when is the right time to sell..

Well, I had mentioned before since last year that..
"When MR B (R33) finally bought his.. That's the time everyone should start to sell soon!" (for those who have been thinking of selling..)

Yah, when taxi uncle queues up overnight to buy property and the shoe shine boy starts giving you stock tips.........

[jwong71]

Yah, when taxi uncle queues up overnight to buy property and the shoe shine boy starts giving you stock tips.........

A true story: a regular taxi driver, engaged by airport to pick up airport staff after midnight hours where no public transport is available. And jio my sales frd to co-joint buy property.

Meaning should start to sell.??