This is the biggest threat looming over Singapore residential sector

[lifeline]

http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/big...073600321.html

This is the biggest threat looming over Singapore residential sector
Singapore Business Review

50,000 supplies will burden industry players.
According to OCBC, one significant headwind for the residential sector ahead lies in the large physical supply expected over FY14-16.
Including HDB, DBSS and EC completions, OCBC anticipates that 50.0k, 49.7k and 73.6k homes will come into the physical supply in FY14, FY15 and FY16, respectively.
Here's more from OCBC:
Assuming a 6.0m population target by 2020 from the latest Population white paper, we forecast average population growth at ~86k individuals per annum from 2014-20.
Assuming a conservative 3 persons per household, this translates to an incremental demand of ~29k physical homes per year, which points to a fairly clear physical oversupply situation ahead.
This being so, we believe that vacancy rates would likely deteriorate from its current 6.1% levels to 6.7% as at end 2014.

I am not a bear... still holding on to mine though.

[azeoprop]

Do note that a up to 30% of the new apartments coming online are mm 1 and 2 bedders suitable for singles or couples only.

[proud owner]

Do note that a up to 30% of the new apartments coming online are mm 1 and 2 bedders suitable for singles or couples only.

I recall tonnes of people bought MM in the mid 2000's , in anticipation of rental demand 'due' to jobs created by the IR's ...

no more jobs from IR's ... so wheres the demand for MM coming from ?

[fiat500]

Knowing that an oversupply is looming on the horizon, are our gahmen doing something about it or just let our property market rot away like that?

[ekl2ekl2]

http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/big...073600321.html





I am not a bear... still holding on to mine though.

If you have holding power, bull or bear makes little difference

If you are holding to good strategic ones, you can remain as a bull forever.

Oversupply if any will have greater impact in select places

[thomastansb]

I don't think only selected places. If prices drop, the whole Singapore drop. At least this is what happened in the 90s and 2000s.

If you have holding power, bull or bear makes little difference

If you are holding to good strategic ones, you can remain as a bull forever.

Oversupply if any will have greater impact in select places

[GIG]

Knowing that an oversupply is looming on the horizon, are our gahmen doing something about it or just let our property marketifrot away like that?

Why need to do something for price decline in short period
When they forgot to do something on the last 10 years when price shot up?
The govt still got a lot of time to let price fall by gravity.
Maybe the smart one will cash out and take handsome profit.

[lionhill]

Why need to do something for price decline in short period
When they forgot to do something on the last 10 years when price shot up?
The govt still got a lot of time to let price fall by gravity.
Maybe the smart one will cash out and take handsome profit.

some people have cahed out two or three years before. Wonder if their necks are as long as giraffes' or not.

[relax88]

No, their necks not as long but they sure cry father and mother. Like an old hag...... if not come here say drop 50% , their families going to die cos they bought condo

[economist]

Many of the upcoming completions have already been sold, the OCBC report also mentioned that "The level of unsold pipeline held by developers (which forms the primary supply) is currently at 36k units. This is lower than the historical 10-year average of 43k units and is not excessively onerous"

[wt_know]

50,000 units only? sup sup water .... just open the floodgate

anyway, as long as owner shout no $1M no talk ... no one is willing to sell low ... price will stay

if seller don't blink ... buyer cannot lowball

[mermaid]

50,000 units only? sup sup water .... just open the floodgate

anyway, as long as owner shout no $1M no talk ... no one is willing to sell low ... price will stay

if seller don't blink ... buyer cannot lowball

u tink shoebox owners hv better holding power or bigger units owner?

[wt_know]

it does not matter as long as

1. owner still got job and able to service loan
2. interest remain low
3. even interest rise tiny bit, as long as got rental to cover
4. even no rental, back to answer 1, as long as owner got job and not financially overstretch
5. rent out cheaply, gone in 60secs as long as the demand is high from FT and newly minted PR cannot buy HDB for the 1st 3 years

huat ah!!!

u tink shoebox owners hv better holding power or bigger units owner?

[Patrickstar]

Majority of owners the way i see it have the means to hold on to their units and in no need to sell low. The over leveraged are in the minority and these will get hit the hardest when interest rate soar.

50,000 units only? sup sup water .... just open the floodgate

anyway, as long as owner shout no $1M no talk ... no one is willing to sell low ... price will stay

if seller don't blink ... buyer cannot lowball

[GIG]

it does not matter as long as

1. owner still got job and able to service loan
2. interest remain low
3. even interest rise tiny bit, as long as got rental to cover
4. even no rental, back to answer 1, as long as owner got job and not financially overstretch
5. rent out cheaply, gone in 60secs as long as the demand is high from FT and newly minted PR cannot buy HDB for the 1st 3 years

huat ah!!!

The problem in Singapore is not like Japan where everyone work in order.
Not everyone will just keep still and don't blink the eye.
Singapore is such a unique place...
If there is one room which lead to mountain of gold.
Everyone will rush no matter what.
It also work on the opposite, if a room is on fire,
If there is one door to escape, everyone will rush out.
So you may Huat!! alone, but people already out of the door.

[PC08]

Rates and Prop Px relationship is not direct.

I've studied this relationship before. I've observed that rates up or down, px will up. I've also observed that rates up or down, px will down.

Conclusion is for px to come down, it is not dependent on rates. Don't focus too much on rates.

[walkthetiger]

it does not matter as long as

1. owner still got job and able to service loan
2. interest remain low
3. even interest rise tiny bit, as long as got rental to cover
4. even no rental, back to answer 1, as long as owner got job and not financially overstretch
5. rent out cheaply, gone in 60secs as long as the demand is high from FT and newly minted PR cannot buy HDB for the 1st 3 years

huat ah!!!

I would rather sell it during high; cash out the earning (hundred thousands to millions…all depend). Then waits for next low, buy again.

Some prefers holding onto properties to earn rental for retirement,
......multiple millions before retirement is better.

[mermaid]

Conclusion is for px to come down, it is not dependent on rates. Don't focus too much on rates.

den u r left wif:
1. recession
2. diseases
3. terrorism
4. financial crisis
which one do u prefer?

[PC08]

den u r left wif:
1. recession
2. diseases
3. terrorism
4. financial crisis
which one do u prefer?

I wont anyhow ham tam. You go find a chart with PPI and SIBOR vs Time from 1980s to current and see for urself lor. No strong corelationship one leh.

The relationship with recession could be more direct.

[wt_know]

who don't want to buy low sell high ... then buy low again ...
if everyone is so good in timing in-&-out, no need to work liao

I would rather sell it during high; cash out the earning (hundred thousands to millions…all depend). Then waits for next low, buy again.

Some prefers holding onto properties to earn rental for retirement,
......multiple millions before retirement is better.

[walkthetiger]

who don't want to buy low sell high ... then buy low again ...
if everyone is so good in timing in-&-out, no need to work liao

Well, I have to admit that I am no expert here who can explain things using big theories, but somehow I can feel that the "peak" has just passed, still it appears not too late to sell now, but strangely somehow the golden word-of-advice "holding on" seems like the most comfortable words owners wish to hear right now, not to forget that many of them bought their investment properties during the very low.

Rental yield for retirement may appear just a small piece of cake afterall, in far future. But, many young owners have somehow assured themselve that rental is the best way forward.

[PC08]

Well, I have to admit that I am no expert here who can explain things using big theories, but somehow I can feel that the "peak" has just passed, still it appears not too late to sell now, but strangely somehow the golden word-of-advice "holding on" seems like the most comfortable words owners wish to hear right now, not to forget that many of them bought their investment properties during the very low.

Rental yield for retirement may appear just a small piece of cake afterall, in far future. But, many young owners have somehow assured themselve that rental is the best way forward.

I am not sure if it has just passed, but if it hasn't, it should be near. Don't really need to explain to anyone if you don't want to. More importantly, it is to believe in yourself and put your money where the mouth is. Ignoring the inflation scare, I am holding mostly cash till the next opportunity visits us.

Rental income is quite addictive since it is pretty much extra income, but it has its problems. Aircon spoil, shower water pressure not enough, stainless steel hardware rusting spanners will be tossed at you anytime by the tenant, and you need to settle them promptly (as if you've not enough problems at your workplace). I am lucky to find a decent agent who is willing to act as a runner to coordinate with the plumber, carpenter etc. whenever the need arise. You need to have a lot of luck here, to have a reliable agent and a reasonable tenant. I've decided to give my next property purchase commission to him to further build the relationship.

[radha08]

I would rather sell it during high; cash out the earning (hundred thousands to millions…all depend). Then waits for next low, buy again.

Some prefers holding onto properties to earn rental for retirement,
......multiple millions before retirement is better.

everybody got their own pattern thats why market is so dynamic

[DC33_2008]

It is easier with stocks than real estate.

who don't want to buy low sell high ... then buy low again ...
if everyone is so good in timing in-&-out, no need to work liao