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Thread: India - the next Asian crisis

  1. #1
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    Default India - the next Asian crisis





    Ride at your own risk !!!

  2. #2
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    So whaso what they are all here....

  3. #3
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    changi airport will be choked by expat Indians soon, rupee was 20 per USD in 1991, now is 63

    Ride at your own risk !!!

  4. #4
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    Wealth is determine by which currency u keep. If keep rupee since 1991.... U lost alot of wealth. If keep malaysia ringgit since early time also lost alot of wealth.

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    there is a famous story: in the jungle chased by a bear, as long as u are not the slowest u will survive

    India, Brazil, Indonesia obviously are the slowest animals out of the BRIICS ... the "glamorous" 10y of 2000-2010 will follow by "painful loss" as they have become not competitive

    ================================

    The Brazilian real closed 0.9 percent lower at 2.4152 per dollar, adding to last week's losses of more than 5 percent, even after strong central bank intervention.
    Analysts said the real could keep weakening toward 2.5 per dollar in the short term, while others said it could slide to 2.70 through the end of the year.
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  6. #6
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    Massive unwind of EM underway
    I see a bit of contagious effect on SGD - usdsgd may hit 1.28 this week then 1.3 next month
    Stay long Usd short asian currency

  7. #7
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    the nagging concern of repeat of 1997:

    USD/INR (USDINR=X) -CCY
    63.90 Up 0.7650(+1.2100%)

    The rupee has breached 64 against the US dollar Tuesday
    Last edited by phantom_opera; 20-08-13 at 14:46.
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by k00L
    Massive unwind of EM underway
    I see a bit of contagious effect on SGD - usdsgd may hit 1.28 this week then 1.3 next month
    Stay long Usd short asian currency
    Hi

    What's EM?

    And will the Indian economy affects us much? Sorry a noob here... What I understand is India doesn't really drives the world's economy like China and US do. So will their failure really brings all of us down?

  9. #9
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    Default domino effect

    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    there is a famous story: in the jungle chased by a bear, as long as u are not the slowest u will survive

    India, Brazil, Indonesia obviously are the slowest animals out of the BRIICS ... the "glamorous" 10y of 2000-2010 will follow by "painful loss" as they have become not competitive

    ================================

    The Brazilian real closed 0.9 percent lower at 2.4152 per dollar, adding to last week's losses of more than 5 percent, even after strong central bank intervention.
    Analysts said the real could keep weakening toward 2.5 per dollar in the short term, while others said it could slide to 2.70 through the end of the year.
    Please remember with domino effect. If big country like India and Indonesia having problem, the domino effect may be giving Singapore problem also.

  10. #10
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    wow ... RBI also doing QE like Japan / US liao

    RBI adds liquidity to aid India banks
    Central bank purchases $1.2bn of long-dated government bonds

    meanwhile ... Kuroda talking again:

    Kuroda open to further monetary easing

    ====

    EM miserables;

    Mexico economy shrinks most in four years Turkey raises rates to stop lira’s slide
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  11. #11
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    unfortunately ... India QE amount was a joke ... US Fed 85b per month .... this QE is like 1.3b USD only

    from this chart, it seems like intervention becomes less n less effective over time ... flashing danger signs

    Ride at your own risk !!!

  12. #12
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    Indian rupee may crash to 70 per dollar in a month: Deutsche

    => when a bank starts to say like this ... do your short covering now

    FT:

    The Indian rupee fell below Rs65 to the US dollar on Thursday, extending a run of record lows as new government policy measures failed to improve investor sentiment in Asia’s third-largest economy.
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  13. #13
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    MUMBAI: Rupee plunged 3.07 percent to close at an all time low of 66.24 versus the US dollar on Tuesday. This is the worst one day percentage decline ever for the currency.

    => approving the food bill for the poor is committing financial suicide ... with Syrian war looming, indeed the short cover can till 70
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  14. #14
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    The Indian rupee has dropped by nearly 4% to a new record low of 68.7 to the US dollar amid growing concerns over the health of the country's economy.



    short covering starting at 70
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  15. #15
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    69.x for rupee just hit minutes ago

    The hard truth ... BRIC .. only Russia / China can survive

    The world middle class:

    American 200m
    European 300m
    Indians 300m
    Chinese 300m

    Can't be all prosper together, the weakest will die pain pain, repeat of Asian 1997 crisis
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  16. #16
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    I love your charts and analysis mind.

  17. #17
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    India Rupee, Onion and Gas

    The price of the humble onion – an indispensable kitchen staple in India and a filler vegetable in middle-class cooking – is making Indians weep. In the last few weeks, onion prices have quadrupled from 20 rupees ($0.30) a kilogram, edged up further before subsiding a bit. Some Indians are even talking of a race to the 100-rupee mark between the U.S. dollar (over 65 rupees, currently), the onion (over 70 rupees) and a liter of gas (over 77 rupees in Bangalore).
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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