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Thread: Ringgit drops to 15-year-low against Singapore dollar

  1. #1
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    Default Ringgit drops to 15-year-low against Singapore dollar

    If u bought Iskandar at 2.4 ... 2.55 u already lose 6.25%

    If it revisits 2.7 historical low ... good luck
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    If u bought Iskandar at 2.4 ... 2.55 u already lose 6.25%

    If it revisits 2.7 historical low ... good luck
    but if buy now....good mah
    I am rich in debts...

  3. #3
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    Commodity currencies (ringgit, aussie, rupiah) are being hammered

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    A lot of ppl dun take this into consideration when they make overseas purchases against their base currency. Any drop of the currency or strengthening of the Sin may wipe out their gains
    When you have eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth

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    Quote Originally Posted by indomie
    Commodity currencies (ringgit, aussie, rupiah) are being hammered
    yup rupiah is even higher than during Lehman crisis, now 1SGD = 8111 IDR

    if holding INR government bond or FD ...die liao
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    yup rupiah is even higher than during Lehman crisis, now 1SGD = 8111 IDR

    if holding INR government bond or FD ...die liao
    Of course money changer will asked for 1SGD = 8300 IDR

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    Rupiah is not going to recover because GE is coming, the gov is not going to tighten the liquidity. There is also an issue of redenomination of rupiah that could take effect next year.

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    But those Indonesian who bot Singapore properties pre- 1997 all laughing to the bank leh.....


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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    If u bought Iskandar at 2.4 ... 2.55 u already lose 6.25%

    If it revisits 2.7 historical low ... good luck
    Most are in the process of paying instalment, so it is not necessary a bad thing.

    Malaysia's export seems to be weakening recently. I think it is over-dependent on electrical and electronics sector. On the other hand, the real estate and construction industries in Johor are over-heated.

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/exports

    http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/busin...s-to-stay.html

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    Quote Originally Posted by hyenergix
    Most are in the process of paying instalment, so it is not necessary a bad thing.

    Malaysia's export seems to be weakening recently. I think it is over-dependent on electrical and electronics sector. On the other hand, the real estate and construction industries in Johor are over-heated.

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/exports

    http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/busin...s-to-stay.html
    many paid cash as effective interest rate is too high in MY
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    many paid cash as effective interest rate is too high in MY
    Those are the old rich retirees in their 50s.

    Most in their 30s to 40s take some loan. The bulk belongs to this group.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    many paid cash as effective interest rate is too high in MY
    Nope, those savy enough will opt for max loan as the S$ appreciation will be much more than the bank loan rate of 4.25%

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    Quote Originally Posted by leesg123
    Nope, those savy enough will opt for max loan as the S$ appreciation will be much more than the bank loan rate of 4.25%
    Of course your point is valid

    how about those not savvy lol ... real life example lah, I know a friend (not retiree, about early forties) paid 200k cash for Iskandar
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    Of course your point is valid

    how about those not savvy lol ... real life example lah, I know a friend (not retiree, about early forties) paid 200k cash for Iskandar
    Those retiree heck care them lah. Can afford to retire so early, all this fluctuations are spare change

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    The MYR to SGD is one of the most stable currency band, and has been betw 2.35 to 2.5 for many years liao, compared to say, USD to SGD.

    One must also consider the currency movement against the capital appreciation. The capital appreciation has been what? Min 30-40% for these 2 years? I am referring to all kinds of properties from industrial, commercial to residential.....
    Last edited by yaozong7; 30-07-13 at 18:14.

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    By Liau Y-Sing
    July 30 (Bloomberg) -- Malaysia’s 10-year government bonds
    fell, driving the yield to a two-year high, on concern global
    investors will repatriate funds after $2.9 billion of sovereign
    debt matures tomorrow. The ringgit declined.
    Capital outflows could cause the ringgit to underperform,
    Dariusz Kowalczyk, a Credit Agricole CIB strategist in Hong Kong,
    wrote in a research report today, as 10-year notes fell for a
    fifth day, the longest stretch in a month. Overseas investors
    held 33 percent of Malaysian government debt in May, the highest
    proportion among Southeast Asia’s biggest economies, according
    to central bank and finance ministry data.
    “The concern is that investors will take their money and
    shift it offshore,” said Khoon Goh, a senior strategist at
    Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Singapore. “The
    market is trying to front-run this potential redemption
    outflow.”
    The yield on the 3.48 percent securities due March 2023
    climbed 10 basis points, or 0.10 percentage point, to 4.04
    percent as of 4:30 p.m. in Kuala Lumpur, data compiled by
    Bloomberg show. That’s the highest for a benchmark of that
    maturity since May 2011.

    Market Vulnerable

    Malaysia’s debt market is vulnerable to a global sell-off
    because of the size of the overseas holdings, Arjun Shetty, a
    rate strategist in Singapore at Deutsche Bank AG, said last week.
    Borrowing costs on three-year bonds jumped to 3.69 percent
    yesterday, a level not reached since November 2008.
    The government sold 4.5 billion ringgit ($1.4 billion) of
    2020 securities today at 3.889 percent, according to data
    published on the central bank’s website. Demand exceeded the
    amount on offer by 1.91 times.
    The ringgit fell 0.2 percent to 3.2315 per dollar in Kuala
    Lumpur, declining for a fifth day, according to data compiled by
    Bloomberg. It earlier dropped as much as 0.4 percent to 3.2379,
    the weakest level since July 2010. The currency lost 2.2 percent
    in July and 5.4 percent this year.
    A technical indicator signals the ringgit may rebound ahead
    of the Federal Reserves’ July 30-31 meeting. The Federal Open
    Market Committee has said it may start paring stimulus should
    the U.S. economy meet the central bank’s forecasts.
    The dollar’s 14-day relative strength index against the
    Malaysian currency approached 70, a threshold that signals the
    greenback may weaken.
    The ringgit’s earlier decline was also due to concern about
    a possible deterioration of Malaysia’s current-account balance,
    Australia & New Zealand Banking’s Goh said.
    The surplus fell to 8.7 billion ringgit in the January-
    March period from 22.9 billion ringgit in the preceding three
    months, official data show. The nation may record an $800
    million current-account deficit in the second quarter, the first
    shortfall since 1997, according to a July 26 research note from
    Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
    One-month implied volatility in the ringgit, a measure of
    expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, rose
    16 basis points, or 0.16 percentage point, to 8.30 percent
    LEDANG HEIGHTS, THE FUTURE GOOD CLASS BUNGALOW CENTRAL OF NUSAJAYA/ISKANDAR

  17. #17
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    wow ... $2.9 billion of sovereign debt matures tomorrow

    that is probably like 1% of GDP?
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    If u bought Iskandar at 2.4 ... 2.55 u already lose 6.25%

    If it revisits 2.7 historical low ... good luck
    Hah Ha Ha ..

    That's why malaysian called us "gong kia" buying mudsland property
    - against a backdrop of one-way street Foreign Currency exchange
    - Mudsland plenty of muds, never run short wan of land wan

    When Malaysian buy sing property they tell you everything is just the reverse
    and a more compelling reason to hold and buy sing properties


  19. #19
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    as a technical guy, I can tell u both ringgit / rupiah has much more downside in the near term ... 2.55 is just the beginning, 2.72 more likely the next resistance

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...fitch-cut.html

    The yield on 3.48 percent government notes due March 2023 rose two basis points to 4.12 percent, the highest for a benchmark 10-year note since January 2011 and adding to an 18 basis-point increase yesterday. The two-year onshore interest-rate swap climbed one basis point to 3.35 percent.
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  20. #20
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    The weaker RM will fuel stronger demand for Johor properties.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hyenergix
    The weaker RM will fuel stronger demand for Johor properties.

    yeah agreed.

    i think anyone in singapore who over-leveraged themselves with SGD-MYR structures - if cannot even tahen a 10-20% swing in fx rates deserve to be wiped out lah..

    i look at Iskandar as long term ...for people like me and Hyenergix who went in long time liao. 10% swing within a 200-500% gain in the past 5 years is nothing.

    I said many times liao, too much froth especially in the condo market..i hope these guys learn a lesson that property investment in M'sia aint a speculating flip/flip market lah
    LEDANG HEIGHTS, THE FUTURE GOOD CLASS BUNGALOW CENTRAL OF NUSAJAYA/ISKANDAR

  22. #22
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    I will keep this thread up to monitor EM currency

    AUD also looks like a diaster for FX play:

    1 AUD = 1.1417 SGD -0.01006 (-0.873%)

    chart of SGDMYR:

    Last edited by phantom_opera; 31-07-13 at 22:45.
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  23. #23
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    1 AUD = 1.1288 SGD
    1 SGD = 8,107.3600 IDR
    1 SGD = 2.5516 MYR

    If bought AUD at 1.30 ... can surrender liao
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  24. #24
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    i m not monitoring currencies closely. that means sgd only depreciated against USD, HKD and CNY?

    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    1 AUD = 1.1288 SGD
    1 SGD = 8,107.3600 IDR
    1 SGD = 2.5516 MYR

    If bought AUD at 1.30 ... can surrender liao

  25. #25
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    EM currencies ===> USD

    1 SGD = 2.5636 MYR
    1 SGD = 8104 IDR

    I heard from my friends that Batam ferry now offers unlimited monthly trips to Batam @ 472 all in

    Batam is going to be taxi driver & SG single heaven soon
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    for those who enter the market earlier, it is always high risk high gain...you are rewarded in this case.

    many think that even if the price started to drop, i still have time to run. but, don't forget, when one starts to run, many will start to run! and during that time, suddenly the you will realise where are all the buyers???

    many overlook the interest rate in mal. even if you did not pay cash, you are not spared...you take loan and if the interest rate goes up, what will happen?
    the continue weakening of MYR will trigger??

    Quote Originally Posted by lot286
    yeah agreed.

    i think anyone in singapore who over-leveraged themselves with SGD-MYR structures - if cannot even tahen a 10-20% swing in fx rates deserve to be wiped out lah..

    i look at Iskandar as long term ...for people like me and Hyenergix who went in long time liao. 10% swing within a 200-500% gain in the past 5 years is nothing.

    I said many times liao, too much froth especially in the condo market..i hope these guys learn a lesson that property investment in M'sia aint a speculating flip/flip market lah

  27. #27
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    1SGD = RM 2.5872 22:31 SGT
    1SGD = IDR 8,176

    Slowing and surely creeping up day by day

    Ride at your own risk !!!

  28. #28
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    The way I play Msia properties is to take up max MYR loan and get a high enough rental yield (6-7%) to cover installment (currently around 4.2%). In this way, I limit my FX risk to only the downpayment amount (15%)

    Interest rates in Malaysia is domestic driven - so if interest rate goes up, it means economic activity is going up, so rental should go up (at least in theory).

    If 1997 happens again, MYR will depreciate (and stay depreciated for a long time), and interest rates may spike up for only a few months. In this case, use the MYR funds accumulated from +ve carry (6% - 4.2%) in the past few years to pay for the higher installments in these few months.

  29. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by lot286
    yeah agreed.

    i think anyone in singapore who over-leveraged themselves with SGD-MYR structures - if cannot even tahen a 10-20% swing in fx rates deserve to be wiped out lah..

    i look at Iskandar as long term ...for people like me and Hyenergix who went in long time liao. 10% swing within a 200-500% gain in the past 5 years is nothing.

    I said many times liao, too much froth especially in the condo market..i hope these guys learn a lesson that property investment in M'sia aint a speculating flip/flip market lah

    I was once as skeptical as most felt here not too long ago and I dont even bother to find out more about iskandar project.

    However, during my recent family trip to Hello-Kitty Theme Park in Jun, my perception changed...

    Unlike the good old days when properties were built before road access is ready... I noticed Iskandar Projects (Particularly in Medini and Putri Habour) road infrastructures are already in place before projects start construction..

    We can choose to continue to sing down the Iskandar Project or ride on as early as possible...

    I reckon Iskandar relationship with Singapore as identical to Hong Kong and Shenzhen...

    Btw.. a strong Iskandar might be challenging for Singapore... and I think our leaders have to react fast.. if not.. faster as I think the potential power of Iskandar is huge.... Malaysia is no longer the same malayisa that our government wants us to believe... they are still slow.. we will be doom if we continue to underestimate them
    .. if we cannot stop the train forward. . Might as well think how can we make do and gain with it...

    To be open and candid... I've justed vested 2 weeks ago after some intense visits and researches....Paid rm12k booking fees and are waiting for my SNP from developer. . Yet to pay first 10% and I guessed the currency rate seem nice for me.
    Daft, Dafter, Dafterest!!!!

  30. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by westman
    I was once as skeptical as most felt here not too long ago and I dont even bother to find out more about iskandar project.

    However, during my recent family trip to Hello-Kitty Theme Park in Jun, my perception changed...

    Unlike the good old days when properties were built before road access is ready... I noticed Iskandar Projects (Particularly in Medini and Putri Habour) road infrastructures are already in place before projects start construction..

    We can choose to continue to sing down the Iskandar Project or ride on as early as possible...

    I reckon Iskandar relationship with Singapore as identical to Hong Kong and Shenzhen...
    Iskandar and sg is not similar to hk and shenzhen. Without hk, on its own shenzhen can actually prosper. Without sg, iskandar is nothing. This is a very important different.

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