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Thread: Get out while you could

  1. #1
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    Default Get out while you could

    (I am posting the following, solely to share my observations of the marketplace, and obviously have no intention to start a debate ala Yowetan's or Mr. B's. Those of you who understood where I am coming from, knew that I left the active participation of this forum, and so take this posting however you like it.)

    The recent stock and bond sell-offs, when studied with the currency movements at the same time, to me they revealed the following:

    - That the markets appeared very nervous of the prospect of more QEs, especially for Japan. After 5 years of QEs, with benign inflation rate in the general economy, more questions have been raised about the effect of more QEs. What happened in Japan has been illustrative.

    - That the fund inflows to a country, over the last 5 years, could well not be from the US, but primarily from Japan, Britain and Europe. This was illustrated by the weakness of USD during the recent sell-offs.

    For the Singapore property, my observations for the landed sector:

    - More landed developers are marketing their projects at competitive prices. Especially so for boutique developers who acquired the lands 2 years ago.

    - More selling from semi-d owners, when compared to just 3 months ago.

    - More and more buyers are apparently HDB upgraders. Now, there is nothing wrong to upgrade the housing from an HDB, because the price psf for landed is still competitive when compared with the launch price of a new condo. However, when you are a landed investor, when seeing enquiries more and more from HDB upgraders, a red flaf would come up.

    Cheers!

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by Secretariat
    (I am posting the following, solely to share my observations of the marketplace, and obviously have no intention to start a debate ala Yowetan's or Mr. B's. Those of you who understood where I am coming from, knew that I left the active participation of this forum, and so take this posting however you like it.)

    The recent stock and bond sell-offs, when studied with the currency movements at the same time, to me they revealed the following:

    - That the markets appeared very nervous of the prospect of more QEs, especially for Japan. After 5 years of QEs, with benign inflation rate in the general economy, more questions have been raised about the effect of more QEs. What happened in Japan has been illustrative.

    - That the fund inflows to a country, over the last 5 years, could well not be from the US, but primarily from Japan, Britain and Europe. This was illustrated by the weakness of USD during the recent sell-offs.

    For the Singapore property, my observations for the landed sector:

    - More landed developers are marketing their projects at competitive prices. Especially so for boutique developers who acquired the lands 2 years ago.

    - More selling from semi-d owners, when compared to just 3 months ago.

    - More and more buyers are apparently HDB upgraders. Now, there is nothing wrong to upgrade the housing from an HDB, because the price psf for landed is still competitive when compared with the launch price of a new condo. However, when you are a landed investor, when seeing enquiries more and more from HDB upgraders, a red flaf would come up.

    Cheers!
    Hi, your message is very confusing. More demand from HDB upgraders suggests a strong support base for landed isn't it? People might be looking for more space simply.

    But for me, why more landed owners are selling has little to do with the demand and supply. Leave it up to landed owners to comment if they wish.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  3. #3
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    Get out of what?

    Cash - Because many more QEs are going to devalue the cash?

    HDB - Because many upgraders are going to sell their HDBs to stay in semi-Ds and this will create a glut in HDB and cause price to crash?

  4. #4
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    ....more sellers meaning people are panicking? ...or are they cashing in to reinvest? If I have a property bought at $1m and am staying in it....now its worth $3m....should I just sit on the $2m appreciation or should I cash in, and buy 2 properties? So that I can get some revenue from my 2nd property? If its the latter...there will be increase in demand for PC if more landed owners are thinking the same way.....and Semi-D being much fewer and even more rare in the pipeline...would the price tumble?

  5. #5
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    Those waiting to buy say market may crash soon.Don't buy.

    Those waiting to sell say market will chiong .Don't sell.

    So if you have money jus buy.No money jus keep quiet.

  6. #6
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    Default

    Well said ...
    end of the day ... you can shout all you want ...
    if you have no money to buy car or houses ... no car or houses to sell
    you are are just out of the game


    Quote Originally Posted by Tony Blair
    Those waiting to buy say market may crash soon.Don't buy.

    Those waiting to sell say market will chiong .Don't sell.

    So if you have money jus buy.No money jus keep quiet.

  7. #7
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    Only speculators or overleveraged ones need to worry.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Secretariat
    (I am posting the following, solely to share my observations of the marketplace, and obviously have no intention to start a debate ala Yowetan's or Mr. B's. Those of you who understood where I am coming from, knew that I left the active participation of this forum, and so take this posting however you like it.)

    The recent stock and bond sell-offs, when studied with the currency movements at the same time, to me they revealed the following:

    - That the markets appeared very nervous of the prospect of more QEs, especially for Japan. After 5 years of QEs, with benign inflation rate in the general economy, more questions have been raised about the effect of more QEs. What happened in Japan has been illustrative.

    - That the fund inflows to a country, over the last 5 years, could well not be from the US, but primarily from Japan, Britain and Europe. This was illustrated by the weakness of USD during the recent sell-offs.

    For the Singapore property, my observations for the landed sector:

    - More landed developers are marketing their projects at competitive prices. Especially so for boutique developers who acquired the lands 2 years ago.

    - More selling from semi-d owners, when compared to just 3 months ago.

    - More and more buyers are apparently HDB upgraders. Now, there is nothing wrong to upgrade the housing from an HDB, because the price psf for landed is still competitive when compared with the launch price of a new condo. However, when you are a landed investor, when seeing enquiries more and more from HDB upgraders, a red flaf would come up.

    Cheers!
    Well said.... view appreciated...

    Btw,someone from the other side must be dying to write something to counter it. Anybody who doesn’t agree, just share your different view here…. I see not problem to have another round of debate…there were hundreds already…

    All readers benefit the wide/different/up-to-date views and opinions, help them to decide/sense the real current/future market with their common sense/homework.

  9. #9
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    Only time will tell. However, it is not wrong to say the boom cycle is coming to an end. Everything is cyclical and properties has had its days.

    P.S - I am also vested and not coming from a MTB angle.
    When you have eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth

  10. #10
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    recent routs ?? I feel good as I can cherry pick Asians stocks n bonds while holding my properties till 2019 .. inflation will be 3pc GDP growth 2.5pc for next few years, China will also slow to 5pc but dun expect recession lah
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  11. #11
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    when nikkei at 8000 during earthquake ppl say doom, say until nikkei nearly doubles, djia also same

    meanwhile developers just keep buying lands n sell projects taking calculated risk

    even Far East is aggressive again lol
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Secretariat
    (I am posting the following, solely to share my observations of the marketplace, and obviously have no intention to start a debate ala Yowetan's or Mr. B's. Those of you who understood where I am coming from, knew that I left the active participation of this forum, and so take this posting however you like it.)

    The recent stock and bond sell-offs, when studied with the currency movements at the same time, to me they revealed the following:

    - That the markets appeared very nervous of the prospect of more QEs, especially for Japan. After 5 years of QEs, with benign inflation rate in the general economy, more questions have been raised about the effect of more QEs. What happened in Japan has been illustrative.

    - That the fund inflows to a country, over the last 5 years, could well not be from the US, but primarily from Japan, Britain and Europe. This was illustrated by the weakness of USD during the recent sell-offs.

    For the Singapore property, my observations for the landed sector:

    - More landed developers are marketing their projects at competitive prices. Especially so for boutique developers who acquired the lands 2 years ago.
    Mabbe the big boys know something that we don't.

    Quote Originally Posted by Secretariat
    - More selling from semi-d owners, when compared to just 3 months ago.
    Are these owners upgrading or downgrading?

    Quote Originally Posted by Secretariat
    - More and more buyers are apparently HDB upgraders. Now, there is nothing wrong to upgrade the housing from an HDB, because the price psf for landed is still competitive when compared with the launch price of a new condo. However, when you are a landed investor, when seeing enquiries more and more from HDB upgraders, a red flaf would come up.

    Cheers!
    I get your point.....when the masses start buying something, then....according to Warren Buffet, we should start fearing.
    "Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy And Greedy When Others Are Fearful” - Warren Buffett

    Thanks for the insightful post, Secretariat.

    Happy Fathers' Day to all!

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by princess_morbucks
    Mabbe the big boys know something that we don't.



    Are these owners upgrading or downgrading?



    I get your point.....when the masses start buying something, then....according to Warren Buffet, we should start fearing.
    "Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy And Greedy When Others Are Fearful” - Warren Buffett

    Thanks for the insightful post, Secretariat.
    .
    Happy Fathers' Day to all!
    Last point: many ask, but how many really execute? I don't have numbers, but from what I know, not many.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  14. #14
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    In mid 2011, the stock market also experienced a minor fluctuation. Minor ups and downs are common. In the same fluctuation, US stock drop, I can't remember, like 750 or 1000 points in a single day. That is the limit it DOW can drop in a single day. So many people are saying equity and property doomed already.

    Stocks drop about 20 to 25% within 2 months. Property drop about 3 to 5%.

    After that, property went up 10 to 20% from 2011 till now depending on district.

    I still don't understand why people are saying property will drop soon. You will never know when it will drop and how much it will drop. It might be until 2017 or 2020 before a 20% drop. Or maybe banks start failing end of 2013. Who can predict....

  15. #15
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    after khaw say must make sure senior citizens can rent out hdb flats, I have decided to hold till the next MND minister as khaw will guarantee my hdb rentals

    kenobi wan no match for dark side, our last hope is young sky walkers
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  16. #16
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    I like the dark side. Lol

  17. #17
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    it is well known fact that interest rate supports these buying these days....so in asia when u hear china slowing, europe not out of the woods, then means what?
    interest rate will be low for a while to spur business activities.....and in the end, also prolong the property cycle.


    Quote Originally Posted by thomastansb
    In mid 2011, the stock market also experienced a minor fluctuation. Minor ups and downs are common. In the same fluctuation, US stock drop, I can't remember, like 750 or 1000 points in a single day. That is the limit it DOW can drop in a single day. So many people are saying equity and property doomed already.

    Stocks drop about 20 to 25% within 2 months. Property drop about 3 to 5%.

    After that, property went up 10 to 20% from 2011 till now depending on district.

    I still don't understand why people are saying property will drop soon. You will never know when it will drop and how much it will drop. It might be until 2017 or 2020 before a 20% drop. Or maybe banks start failing end of 2013. Who can predict....

  18. #18
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    reduction of QE means SIBOR will rocket... all the bears pls continue to think this way
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    reduction of QE means SIBOR will rocket... all the bears pls continue to think this way
    Reduction of QE mean SIBOR will increase.

    Total removal of QE means SIBOR will rocket.

    They may or may not reduce QE, but I don't think they will remove it totally.
    The world can't take it.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by princess_morbucks
    Reduction of QE mean SIBOR will increase.

    Total removal of QE means SIBOR will rocket.

    They may or may not reduce QE, but I don't think they will remove it totally.
    The world can't take it.
    The world would rather you and me die of inflation, than deflation.

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by princess_morbucks
    Reduction of QE mean SIBOR will increase.

    Total removal of QE means SIBOR will rocket.

    They may or may not reduce QE, but I don't think they will remove it totally.
    The world can't take it.
    who say remove QE SIBOR will rocket??

  22. #22
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    Title should change to: Get in while you can

  23. #23
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    From title already know this guy is obviously lost. He doesn't know where he is (inside or outside). so why are people guessing what he means? why make it so complicated. Prepare bullets. Price down go in. Price up or hold or sell. Why response to kajunk puteh remarks?

  24. #24
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    http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesgru...-higher-rates/

    can the world take a higher interest rate environment...

    Quote Originally Posted by lajia
    who say remove QE SIBOR will rocket??

  25. #25
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    many banks may go bust if deflation or high cost of debt hits with little margin for error
    that's why central banks are so pro inflation n zero rates
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  26. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3C
    From title already know this guy is obviously lost. He doesn't know where he is (inside or outside). so why are people guessing what he means? why make it so complicated. Prepare bullets. Price down go in. Price up or hold or sell. Why response to kajunk puteh remarks?
    Human also choose to hear what they believe.... Ignore what they disbelieve...
    Kajunk puteh.... i like to eat.

  27. #27
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    One thing for sure, many landed put up for sale now.. especially those 99 yr lease TOP in the 90's.

    Reason is simple, their children have grown up and moved out... no point for an old couple to stay in such a big house... another reason is they have broke even or make some profit from selling...

  28. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rosy
    Only speculators or overleveraged ones need to worry.
    Major speculators seem gone.
    Now maybe left those real 'stayers' and upgraders. …And surviving agents actively in this forum who are serving those people, at the same time looking after their rice bowl.

  29. #29
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    title should be don't go in if you can
    super exorbitant price and lousy quality and workmanship

  30. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by wsx123
    Human also choose to hear what they believe.... Ignore what they disbelieve...
    Kajunk puteh.... i like to eat.
    Hope you really eat it.
    Don't just said you believe and no action.
    It is equate to you don't even know what you are eating.

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