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Thread: Implication of a reduction of HDB supply after 2015 on a 6.9mil target population

  1. #1
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    Default Implication of a reduction of HDB supply after 2015 on a 6.9mil target population

    Recently, Minister for National Development Khaw Boon Wan said that number of flats supply is likely to slow down after 2015.

    If our population is gonna remain constant, I do understand the rationale. But isn't our population heading towards 6.9mil?

    These 2 aren't heading in the same direction?

    Whats the implications?

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    Quote Originally Posted by mermaid
    Recently, Minister for National Development Khaw Boon Wan said that number of flats supply is likely to slow down after 2015.

    If our population is gonna remain constant, I do understand the rationale. But isn't our population heading towards 6.9mil?

    These 2 aren't heading in the same direction?

    Whats the implications?
    easy maths, the rate of new flats propping up > the rate of influx of immigrants

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    Quote Originally Posted by mermaid
    Recently, Minister for National Development Khaw Boon Wan said that number of flats supply is likely to slow down after 2015.

    If our population is gonna remain constant, I do understand the rationale. But isn't our population heading towards 6.9mil?

    These 2 aren't heading in the same direction?

    Whats the implications?
    Maybe we're already at or nearing 6.9mil,

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    Quote Originally Posted by jeaprp
    Maybe we're already at or nearing 6.9mil,
    not yet. you will definitely feel the 'cosy-ness' when we hit 6.9m

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    Quote Originally Posted by mermaid
    Recently, Minister for National Development Khaw Boon Wan said that number of flats supply is likely to slow down after 2015.

    If our population is gonna remain constant, I do understand the rationale. But isn't our population heading towards 6.9mil?

    These 2 aren't heading in the same direction?

    Whats the implications?
    i have done some calculation last time. I am glad it is matched by what kbw said.
    http://forums.condosingapore.com/sho...9&postcount=80
    "government mention 700.000 by 2030.
    yet 200.000 by 2016.
    so from 2017-2030, built 500.000 homes.

    so 2013-2016, it is 50,000 a year for 4 years.
    so 2017-2030, it is 35,714 a year for 14 years...."

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    Quote Originally Posted by eng81157
    easy maths, the rate of new flats propping up > the rate of influx of immigrants
    but the prob is, tis isn't the case now mah

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    Quote Originally Posted by hopeful
    i have done some calculation last time. I am glad it is matched by what kbw said.
    http://forums.condosingapore.com/sho...9&postcount=80
    "government mention 700.000 by 2030.
    yet 200.000 by 2016.
    so from 2017-2030, built 500.000 homes.

    so 2013-2016, it is 50,000 a year for 4 years.
    so 2017-2030, it is 35,714 a year for 14 years...."
    current newly weds per yr avg 15k based on existing population.

    if based on yr analysis,

    2013-2016, it is 50,000 a year means new citizen = 35k for 4 yrs.
    2017-2030, it is 35,714 a year means new citizen = 21k for 14 yrs.
    Total increase in housing supply from 2013 to 2030 = (35k x 4) + (21k x 14) = 434k.

    liddat will reach 6.9mil meh?!?!

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    Quote Originally Posted by mermaid
    current newly weds per yr avg 15k based on existing population.

    if based on yr analysis,

    2013-2016, it is 50,000 a year means new citizen = 35k for 4 yrs.
    2017-2030, it is 35,714 a year means new citizen = 21k for 14 yrs.
    Total increase in housing supply from 2013 to 2030 = (35k x 4) + (21k x 14) = 434k.

    liddat will reach 6.9mil meh?!?!
    check your assumptions
    so 1 new citizen = 1 new apartment/condo/hdb ?
    so to reach 6.9mil, govt has to build 6.9 - 5.3 = 1.6million flats for each new population?
    Last edited by hopeful; 10-06-13 at 18:14.

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    The curve will not be linear. It will be bell shaped surge till 2016 at least then taper off after. Its easy to guess why.

    Has anyone given a thought to possible causes contributing to the sudden surge of dengue cases?

    Urbanisation and construction.

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    With the recent BTO I think they will slow down on HDB supply ba... or else it will be back to the dates of empty HDB blocks

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    Can predict down turn but not the upturn, once demand surge again all the price shoot up sky high.

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    i guess many hoping that thier HDB will be worthless I guess.
    “Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.”
    ― Martin Luther King, Jr.

    OUT WITH THE SHIT TRASH

    https://www.facebook.com/shutdowntrs

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    Quote Originally Posted by eng81157
    not yet. you will definitely feel the 'cosy-ness' when we hit 6.9m
    Try taking public transport during peak hours, if u want to feel the cosy-ness

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    Quote Originally Posted by hopeful
    check your assumptions
    so 1 new citizen = 1 new apartment/condo/hdb ?
    so to reach 6.9mil, govt has to build 6.9 - 5.3 = 1.6million flats for each new population?
    ok, so the delta between current & projected is 1.6mil.
    if I assume 2 new citizens for 1 home.
    1.6mil more ppl means we will nid 800k more home.
    based on yr analysis is 434k homes to be built. the figure still dun tally leh

    unless yr analysis assumes 4 new citizens to 1 home, ie, 50% of which are the locally born children of these new citizens.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mermaid
    but the prob is, tis isn't the case now mah
    trust me, it is. unless the government is covertly opening gates to immigrants, then my assessment should hold true.

    KenoBiWan has unleashed the droid armies of HDB and is mopping up any rebel forces left

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    Quote Originally Posted by mermaid
    ok, so the delta between current & projected is 1.6mil.
    if I assume 2 new citizens for 1 home.
    1.6mil more ppl means we will nid 800k more home.
    based on yr analysis is 434k homes to be built. the figure still dun tally leh

    unless yr analysis assumes 4 new citizens to 1 home, ie, 50% of which are the locally born children of these new citizens.

    don't merely focus on the end-point, look at the rate too.

    if the rate of construction outstrips influx of immigrants, then there would be empty blocks of flat

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    Quote Originally Posted by eng81157
    trust me, it is. unless the government is covertly opening gates to immigrants, then my assessment should hold true.

    KenoBiWan has unleashed the droid armies of HDB and is mopping up any rebel forces left
    assume tat yr assessment is correct, tat means there is sufficient supply to meet the increasing demands from the new citizens for the next 10-15yrs.

    so if say next yr the market crash eg 10-15%, will u still buy for investment?

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    Quote Originally Posted by mermaid
    assume tat yr assessment is correct, tat means there is sufficient supply to meet the increasing demands from the new citizens for the next 10-15yrs.

    so if say next yr the market crash eg 10-15%, will u still buy for investment?
    my assessment is only on the rate, not the endpoint. KenoBiWan has already repeated many times - he is engineering a soft landing/ steady state.

    hence, there are two equations to take note of

    1. number of flats constructed = current shortfall

    once this is being taken cared of (and i believe it is so currently),

    2. rate of construction = rate of immigration

    this is to achieve steady state

    as for your question on investment, i'm not filthy rich so i won't be paying the ABSD. a 10% crash wouldn't be sufficient to cover

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    Quote Originally Posted by jeaprp
    Try taking public transport during peak hours, if u want to feel the cosy-ness
    every country is packed during peak hours, blame the lousy public transport system...

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    Quote Originally Posted by DMCK
    every country is packed during peak hours, blame the lousy public transport system...
    i've taken the JR line in Tokyo during peak hours. There is a lot of traffic, but it isn't chaotic n noisy like in Singapore.

    Queue lines form on platforms, people politely giving way to alighting passengers. In Singapore, MRT doors open = chiong ah

    The train cabins are serene and surreal. Here, pinoys and ah tiongs shouting (they can't talk softly), moronic youngsters who blast music to the whole world (not realising that not everyone likes super junior or rihanna)

    walk through the subway linkways, everyone keeps to the left of the walkway. here, criss-cross, chiong ah.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mermaid
    ok, so the delta between current & projected is 1.6mil.
    if I assume 2 new citizens for 1 home.
    1.6mil more ppl means we will nid 800k more home.
    based on yr analysis is 434k homes to be built. the figure still dun tally leh

    unless yr analysis assumes 4 new citizens to 1 home, ie, 50% of which are the locally born children of these new citizens.
    sorry, the figure of 434k is your analysis.
    KBW said 700k to be built. this include hdb, private residential.
    btw, 15000 newly weds does not equate to 15000 new housing units. if you want to translate to hdb, it is 7500 hdb units okay, not 15000. 2 newly weds = 1 couple = 1 hdb.

    check your assumption.
    check the population white paper la, what is the mix of 6.9million.

    at least this time, you dont at me.

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by hopeful
    sorry, the figure of 434k is your analysis.
    KBW said 700k to be built. this include hdb, private residential.
    btw, 15000 newly weds does not equate to 15000 new housing units. if you want to translate to hdb, it is 7500 hdb units okay, not 15000. 2 newly weds = 1 couple = 1 hdb.

    check your assumption.
    check the population white paper la, what is the mix of 6.9million.

    at least this time, you dont at me.
    tat day KBW said 15k is pairs of newly weds wor

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by mermaid
    tat day KBW said 15k is pairs of newly weds wor
    u r right, thats why i get for shooting my mouth first.
    now go read the white paper before you stumble just like me.

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