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Thread: Interesting Article About Property Cycles

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    Default Interesting Article About Property Cycles

    Maybe the seasoned ones here already know, but I found this Singapore Property Cycles Website Article very interesting.

    1975-1986 cycle, Peak to End in 7Q (less than last 2 yrs of the cycle)

    1986-1998 cycle, Peak to End in 10Q (more than last 2 yrs of the cycle)

    1999-2004 cycle, Peak to End in 16Q (last 4 yrs of the cycle)

    2004-2009 cycle, Peak to End in 5Q (more than last 1 yr of the cycle)

    2009-Present, when Peak is anyone's guess, when is End (bottom) is also anyone's guess.
    Last edited by CondoInterested; 25-05-13 at 22:08.

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    Someone will say "C" tomorrow.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CondoInterested
    Someone will say "C" tomorrow.
    Hi...Monday will be more appropriate for announcement.

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    Even the peak is yesterday, you have to wait between 1 to 4 yrs (from above data) to see the bottom. Slowly wait lor

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    Quote Originally Posted by CondoInterested
    Maybe the seasoned ones here already know, but I found this Singapore Property Cycles Website Article very interesting.

    1975-1986 cycle, Peak to End in 7Q (less than last 2 yrs of the cycle)

    1986-1998 cycle, Peak to End in 10Q (more than last 2 yrs of the cycle)

    1999-2004 cycle, Peak to End in 16Q (last 4 yrs of the cycle)

    2004-2009 cycle, Peak to End in 5Q (more than last 1 yr of the cycle)

    2009-Present, when Peak is anyone's guess, when is End (bottom) is also anyone's guess.
    the question is also, will this cycle ending be lower than the 1999-2004 or 2004-2009 cycle?

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    Last edited by Arcachon; 26-05-13 at 02:49.

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    to further summarise, whatever the factors influencing, the property, unlike shares, will not drop to the bottom over days or weeks or months, it takes some few quarters.


    @Arcachon

    Care if you make a summary of what are you trying to say from all those link.

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    75-86 cycle

    Up 300+%, down 30+%

    Major Events
    1980 - Iran-Iraq war. Interest rates and gold prices soared.
    1981 - Stock market crash.
    1984 - Pan El crisis.
    1986 - Recession in Singapore


    86-98 cycle

    Up 400+%, down 40+%

    Major Events
    1987 - Black Monday 19 October, global stock markets crash.
    1990 - Iraq invasion of Kuwait. Global stock markets crash.
    1991 - Gulf War I.
    1994 - Stock market crash. Interest rates crisis.
    1995 - Collapse of Barings Bank.
    1996 - Property curbs in Singapore.
    1997 - Start of the Asian Financial Crisis. Thai Baht crisis. Asian stocks markets crash.
    1998 - Contagion spreads. Clob, Ringgit and Ruppiah crisis. Asian stocks and property markets meltdown.


    99-04 cycle

    Up 40+%, down 19+%

    Major Events
    2000 - Nasdaq meltdown. Global stock markets crash.
    2001 - US in recession. September 11 World Trade Centre collapsed. Global terrorism.
    2002 - Enron crisis. Arthur Andersen scandal. Global recession.
    2003 - Gulf War II. SARS outbreak. Asean recession deepens.
    2004 - Tsunami in Indonesia.


    04-09 cycle

    Up 50+%, down 20+%

    Major Events
    2007 - Sub-Prime crisis.
    2008 - Lehman Brothers collapsed. Global Financial Crisis. Stock and property markets meltdown.


    09-Present

    Up 59.9% (at April)

    Major Events
    2009 - US QE1.
    2010 - US QE2. European debt crisis.
    2011 - Arab spring. Tsunami in Japan. Floods in Thailand.

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    Thanks for the summary


    Quote Originally Posted by CondoInterested
    75-86 cycle

    Up 300+%, down 30+%

    Major Events
    1980 - Iran-Iraq war. Interest rates and gold prices soared.
    1981 - Stock market crash.
    1984 - Pan El crisis.V
    1986 - Recession in Singapore


    86-98 cycle

    Up 400+%, down 40+%

    Major Events
    1987 - Black Monday 19 October, global stock markets crash.
    1990 - Iraq invasion of Kuwait. Global stock markets crash.
    1991 - Gulf War I.
    1994 - Stock market crash. Interest rates crisis.
    1995 - Collapse of Barings Bank.
    1996 - Property curbs in Singapore.
    1997 - Start of the Asian Financial Crisis. Thai Baht crisis. Asian stocks markets crash.
    1998 - Contagion spreads. Clob, Ringgit and Ruppiah crisis. Asian stocks and property markets meltdown.


    99-04 cycle

    Up 40+%, down 19+%

    Major Events
    2000 - Nasdaq meltdown. Global stock markets crash.
    2001 - US in recession. September 11 World Trade Centre collapsed. Global terrorism.
    2002 - Enron crisis. Arthur Andersen scandal. Global recession.
    2003 - Gulf War II. SARS outbreak. Asean recession deepens.
    2004 - Tsunami in Indonesia.


    04-09 cycle

    Up 50+%, down 20+%

    Major Events
    2007 - Sub-Prime crisis.
    2008 - Lehman Brothers collapsed. Global Financial Crisis. Stock and property markets meltdown.


    09-Present

    Up 59.9% (at April)

    Major Events
    2009 - US QE1.
    2010 - US QE2. European debt crisis.
    2011 - Arab spring. Tsunami in Japan. Floods in Thailand.
    Yee ha! Did I tickle your funny bone?


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    Looking at pass trends, honestly there is no good time or no bad time to enter the property market because the over long term trend is more up than down which it summed up positive upwards.

    When you buy at last high, you thought aiya, waste money, but at the current high, it is higher than previous high.

    When you buy at last low, you thought you pick up something cheap, but you compare to last low or high, eh, actually current low is still higher.

    So the key is you must be able with $$$ power to hold on tight tight to the property during those low (actually may not be your low during the low periods depending on when you buy it), right? And make profit at anytime you as seller's wish, not at buyers wish.

    So invest at your own favourable time.

    So for those who have vested (at anytime), lets cheers and get high, higher and higest.

    Those MTB, stock up $$$, buy when you are enable by $$$ and take care of the interest rates as well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CondoInterested
    Looking at pass trends, honestly there is no good time or no bad time to enter the property market because the over long term trend is more up than down which it summed up positive upwards.

    When you buy at last high, you thought aiya, waste money, but at the current high, it is higher than previous high.

    When you buy at last low, you thought you pick up something cheap, but you compare to last low or high, eh, actually current low is still higher.

    So the key is you must be able with $$$ power to hold on tight tight to the property during those low (actually may not be your low during the low periods depending on when you buy it), right? And make profit at anytime you as seller's wish, not at buyers wish.

    So invest at your own favourable time.

    So for those who have vested (at anytime), lets cheers and get high, higher and higest.

    Those MTB, stock up $$$, buy when you are enable by $$$ and take care of the interest rates as well.
    duh... you telling me no diff in paying 1mil vs 2 mil the same house just 2 years apart

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    Hi...this gives me a pleasant feeling of getting a Mt Sinai property.

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    For property it is better to buy when u still not so old. Every year of wait reduces your number of loan years. If u r 45years and crash come 10yrs later u will be 55yrs old. And if u r already 55yrs old and if crash come 10yrs later u will be 65yrs old, game over, bank not lending.

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    Quote Originally Posted by wind30
    duh... you telling me no diff in paying 1mil vs 2 mil the same house just 2 years apart
    For people with little $$$ like me, of course got huge difference, but for people with a lot of $$$$$$$$$$, they can afford to throw millions like nothing and too little to feel the pinch.

    But the problem is in SG, land is scarce, looking at pass few cycles, value go up more than go down, so base on such assumption, $1m few years ago may not come again, so the current $2m may drop say to $1.5m during the next bear and may go up to say $2.5 during next bull after the next bear.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CondoInterested
    to further summarise, whatever the factors influencing, the property, unlike shares, will not drop to the bottom over days or weeks or months, it takes some few quarters.


    @Arcachon

    Care if you make a summary of what are you trying to say from all those link.
    http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=17750

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    One day I ask my father why he don't upgrade to a bigger HDB, his reply to me is when the War come everything is gone.

    My grandfather was murder by the Japanese during WWII in 1942 when my father was 9 yrs old.

    To find the answer whether when the War is here will Singapore become nothing I join the Airforce.

    Over the yrs SAF have change a lot.

    Singapore economic and infrastructure have also change a lot but the same answer my father give me is still as important, "when the War come everything is gone."

    With the answer in mind my property investment will always be more debt and cash out. When the war come I will be in another country and I will use the money I have to get the one who start the war in Singapore to pay.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon
    One day I ask my father why he don't upgrade to a bigger HDB, his reply to me is when the War come everything is gone.

    My grandfather was murder by the Japanese during WWII in 1942 when my father was 9 yrs old.

    To find the answer whether when the War is here will Singapore become nothing I join the Airforce.

    Over the yrs SAF have change a lot.

    Singapore economic and infrastructure have also change a lot but the same answer my father give me is still as important, "when the War come everything is gone."

    With the answer in mind my property investment will always be more debt and cash out. When the war come I will be in another country and I will use the money I have to get the one who start the war in Singapore to pay.
    Actually u r supposed to stay behind n fight e war while PRs n foreigners escape from Singapore. Prob u die in war but Singapore is saved n e PRs n foreigners can return n continue their life here happily ever after in their intact properties tt u have helped to save.

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    War can be fought in different dimension. Wining the War is not the end, making the one who start the War pay is the end. This is what the Japanese pay for starting the War.

    http://history.howstuffworks.com/wor...ar-2-ends2.htm

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5OI9xrJ8Zw

    Little Boy Bomb.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvI05XHFldg
    Last edited by Arcachon; 26-05-13 at 16:12.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon
    War can be fought in different dimension. Wining the War is not the end, making the one who start the War pay is the end. This is what the Japanese pay for starting the War.

    http://history.howstuffworks.com/wor...ar-2-ends2.htm

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5OI9xrJ8Zw

    Little Boy Bomb.
    Ok, v grand words but u might have to sacrifice ur life in e process.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hyenergix
    Ok, v grand words but u might have to sacrifice ur life in e process.

    I don't "Give My Life for My Country", "I make my enemy give his life for his country".

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    Can you see the trend as it is moving from one continent to the next at the start and now is moving to global.
    Quote Originally Posted by CondoInterested
    75-86 cycle

    Up 300+%, down 30+%

    Major Events
    1980 - Iran-Iraq war. Interest rates and gold prices soared.
    1981 - Stock market crash.
    1984 - Pan El crisis.
    1986 - Recession in Singapore


    86-98 cycle

    Up 400+%, down 40+%

    Major Events
    1987 - Black Monday 19 October, global stock markets crash.
    1990 - Iraq invasion of Kuwait. Global stock markets crash.
    1991 - Gulf War I.
    1994 - Stock market crash. Interest rates crisis.
    1995 - Collapse of Barings Bank.
    1996 - Property curbs in Singapore.
    1997 - Start of the Asian Financial Crisis. Thai Baht crisis. Asian stocks markets crash.
    1998 - Contagion spreads. Clob, Ringgit and Ruppiah crisis. Asian stocks and property markets meltdown.


    99-04 cycle

    Up 40+%, down 19+%

    Major Events
    2000 - Nasdaq meltdown. Global stock markets crash.
    2001 - US in recession. September 11 World Trade Centre collapsed. Global terrorism.
    2002 - Enron crisis. Arthur Andersen scandal. Global recession.
    2003 - Gulf War II. SARS outbreak. Asean recession deepens.
    2004 - Tsunami in Indonesia.


    04-09 cycle

    Up 50+%, down 20+%

    Major Events
    2007 - Sub-Prime crisis.
    2008 - Lehman Brothers collapsed. Global Financial Crisis. Stock and property markets meltdown.


    09-Present

    Up 59.9% (at April)

    Major Events
    2009 - US QE1.
    2010 - US QE2. European debt crisis.
    2011 - Arab spring. Tsunami in Japan. Floods in Thailand.

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    My grandpa comes from china and the first think he did was to work hard and bought a piece of FH landed property and next is to buy a FH land to support his business instead of leasing. The rest is history.
    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon
    One day I ask my father why he don't upgrade to a bigger HDB, his reply to me is when the War come everything is gone.

    My grandfather was murder by the Japanese during WWII in 1942 when my father was 9 yrs old.

    To find the answer whether when the War is here will Singapore become nothing I join the Airforce.

    Over the yrs SAF have change a lot.

    Singapore economic and infrastructure have also change a lot but the same answer my father give me is still as important, "when the War come everything is gone."

    With the answer in mind my property investment will always be more debt and cash out. When the war come I will be in another country and I will use the money I have to get the one who start the war in Singapore to pay.

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    Honestly guys, you think there will be war in sg? We have a big US aircraft carrier base in sembawang but we claim its just a logistics base there, we have exxon shell in here with billions of dollars of investment, we have Interpol soon at tanglin, we have numerous fighter plans in france US and australia, and we are a majority Chinese country so china has a big reason to ensure it stays status quo here....

    Sp wha are the chances of war here?

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    Hendrickson affair [edit]
    The investigations into the Marxist conspirators led to an unexpected discovery. A US diplomat stationed here, Hank Hendrickson, had been interfering in Singapore politics ... Such foreign clandestine operations are part and parcel of “the Great Game” between countries, even friendly ones ... These episodes taught us that it was just as important to monitor our friends as we do our enemies.
    Lee Hsien Loong, Prime Minister of Singapore, in a 2008 speech to the Internal Security Department on the occasion of their 60th anniversary dinner.[3]
    E. Mason "Hank" Hendrickson (born 1945), an American diplomat married to fellow Foreign Service officer Anne E. Derse, was serving as the First Secretary of the United States Embassy when he was expelled by the Singaporean government in May 1988.[4][5][6] Prior to his expulsion, he arranged for Francis Seow and Patrick Seong to travel to Washington, D.C. to meet with American officials at Hendrickson's arrangement.[7] After their return, Singapore detained them under the Internal Security Act.[8] Based on Seow and Seong's statements while in custody, the Singaporean government alleged that Hendrickson attempted to interfere in Singapore's internal affairs by cultivating opposition figures in a "Marxist conspiracy".[7] Then-First Deputy Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong claimed that Hendrickson's alleged conspiracy could have resulted in the election of 20 or 30 opposition politicians to Parliament, which in his words could lead to "horrendous" effects, possibly even the paralysis and fall of the Singaporean government.[8]
    In the aftermath of Hendrickson's expulsion, the U.S. State Department praised his performance in Singapore and denied any impropriety in his actions.[4] The State Department also expelled Robert Chua, a senior-level Singaporean diplomat equal in rank to Mason, from Washington, D.C. in response.[9][10] The State Department's refusal to reprimand Hendrickson, along with their expulsion of the Singaporean diplomat, sparked a protest in Singapore by the National Trades Union Congress; they drove buses around the U.S. embassy, held a rally attended by four thousand workers, and issued a statement deriding the U.S. as "sneaky, arrogant, and untrustworthy".[11]
    A Heritage Foundation paper speculated that Singapore's angry public reaction to the Hendrickson affair may have been a response to the January 1988 termination of Singapore's eligibility for the Generalized System of Preferences, which provided tariff exemptions on Singaporean exports to the United States.[9]

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singapo...rickson_affair

    http://www.escapefromparadise.com/NewFiles/seow.html

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzOLJE2ysNw

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    Quote Originally Posted by CondoInterested
    When you buy at last high, you thought aiya, waste money, but at the current high, it is higher than previous high..
    It is easy to talk when looking at historical charts which show you the peak and bottom. It is true that long term price index will always trend upward but one has to remember that our working life is not indefinite and if you catches the wrong end of the cycle, you will be in trouble for long time or even life time.

    How many time you have heard story of those who bought in the 1997 peak but then force to sell right before the next bull runs in the mid 2000s. For these people, it will be very difficult for them to recover both financially and psychologically.


    "Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."

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    I know of many which are caught in the after 1996 / 97 era and rental was bad then, both resale HDB and private, for bank loan many were asked to top up when the valuation fall below a certain %, that is why I put a caveat that you must have enough $$$ (cash & CPF) to hold long long, else stay out totally.

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