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Thread: the great middle class power shift and it's implication

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    Red face the great middle class power shift and it's implication

    http://money.cnn.com/2013/03/05/news...ges/index.html
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/ar...posh-poor.html

    India has 300m middle class china has another 300m

    India middle class rises due to IT outsourcing
    china middle class rises as it is the world factory
    Korean middle class rises as it takes over uncompetitive Japan electronics giants
    but the new kids on the block are resource n food importers

    the sheer demand growth result in energy n food inflation in our lifetime

    what is your opinion?
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    Smile

    Last edited by phantom_opera; 21-04-13 at 15:29.
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    one possibity is for china to double its middle class to 600m rapidly

    that will be quite a disaster to oil n food prices

    slower growth in china will not be enough to hold prices, u need others to consume less
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    china middle class come work in SG and buy up MMs here for stay and investment ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by danguard
    china middle class come work in SG and buy up MMs here for stay and investment ?
    now u know why ABSD is higher for foreigners and SPRs ??

    even 1pc comes to Sg that is 6m omg
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    Quote Originally Posted by danguard
    china middle class come work in SG and buy up MMs here for stay and investment ?
    now u know why ABSD is higher for foreigners and SPRs ??

    even 1pc comes to Sg that is 6m omg
    and now keppel land bring in vanke is the killer move as vanke can market Sg project for keppel in china

    ABSD can only go up
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    now u know why ABSD is higher for foreigners and SPRs ??

    even 1pc comes to Sg that is 6m omg
    and now keppel land bring in vanke is the killer move as vanke can market Sg project for keppel in china

    ABSD can only go up
    Agree. That's why my fear for Singapore over the longer term is the damaging effects of stagflation. Stagnant growth, but high inflation.

    Momentum is a function of mass times velocity (growth). Singapore does not have mass (in terms of market size and domestic demand/reinvestment). It used to make up for it through its policy premium and nimble growth through policy adjustments. Will it continue to do so? I don't know. And when growth stalls, we lose momentum altogether. Juxtapose this with all of our neighbors. Singapore may no longer be the same rosy picture as it is for us, as compared to our children and grandchildren.

    And that's my worry. Longer term, stagflation will be the slow noose that kills us all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    one possibity is for china to double its middle class to 600m rapidly

    that will be quite a disaster to oil n food prices

    slower growth in china will not be enough to hold prices, u need others to consume less
    The rise of middle class in Indonesia has caused the beef price to reach record high.
    http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking...iency-20130320

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    Increasing receptivity of Singapore to the chinese .... I was auditing a masters class at NUS ... And realized that more than half of the masters students are Chinese nationals - guess where they will find jobs after graduating with a masters degree at NUS

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    Quote Originally Posted by indomie
    The rise of middle class in Indonesia has caused the beef price to reach record high.
    http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking...iency-20130320
    thanks for sharing ... no wonder all parents in Asia are buying properties like crazy ... fearing The Great Competition (Expectation??) down the road for their children
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    Quote Originally Posted by danguard
    Increasing receptivity of Singapore to the chinese .... I was auditing a masters class at NUS ... And realized that more than half of the masters students are Chinese nationals - guess where they will find jobs after graduating with a masters degree at NUS
    it is the number that kills, US only has 100m middle class, China/India each 300m and China urbanization is going to create another 300m

    imagine 700m middle class fighting the same jobs/same properties/same resources everywhere

    LKY once criticized Singaporeans youth not as hardworking/hard-driving as the immigrants ...

    the future:
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    Default An emerging middle class

    An emerging middle class
    Mario Pezzini
    Director, OECD Development Centre

    Mario Pezzini


    The increase in average incomes and the fall in levels of absolute poverty, in particular during the last decade, suggest that an increasing proportion of the world’s population is neither rich nor poor by national standards but finds itself in the middle of the income distribution.

    In 2009 the middle class included 1.8 billion people, with Europe (664 million), Asia (525 million) North America (338 million) accounting for the highest number of people belonging to this group. Even in Africa, where middle class’s growth has not been very robust, it has nonetheless been noticeable and contributed to increased domestic consumption in many countries. Sales of refrigerators, television sets, mobile phones, motors and automobiles have surged in virtually every African country in recent years. Possession of cars and motor cycles in Ghana, for example, has increased by 81% since 2006.

    This expansion continues. The size of the “global middle class” will increase from 1.8 billion in 2009 to 3.2 billion by 2020 and 4.9 billion by 2030. The bulk of this growth will come from Asia: by 2030 Asia will represent 66% of the global middle-class population and 59% of middle-class consumption, compared to 28% and 23%, respectively in 2009, according to the figure below.



    The developing world’s “emerging middle class” is a critical economic and social actor because of its potential as an engine of growth, particularly in the largest developing countries such as China and India but also in sub-Saharan Africa. History tells us that those in the middle have in the past vigorously accumulated capital, be it physical (plant, equipment or housing) or human (education or health). Consolidating this incipient middle income group into a stable middle class could provide a solid foundation for economic progress by driving consumption and domestic demand.

    When contrasting the experience of Brazil and Korea, this becomes evident. In the 1960s the countries had similar income levels and rates of growth; by the 1980s, however, due to high inequality in Brazil, the middle class made up only 29% of the population, in contrast to Korea’s 53%. Its middle class enabled Korea to shift away from exportdriven growth towards domestic consumption, a transition that did not occur in Brazil. Today, this opportunity presents itself to Brazil. Thanks to a decrease in poverty from almost 40% of the population in 2001 to around 25% in 2009, 31 million people joined the middle class in Brazil. Today 52% of Brazil’s population is middle class.

    But middle classes are not only a motor of consumption and domestic demand, their social role remains equally important. Middle classes are believed to support democracy and progressive but moderate political platforms. Strong middle classes can influence economic development through more active participation in the political process, expressing support for political programmes and electoral platforms, in particular those that promote inclusive growth.

    Despite having incomes which are above international or even national poverty lines, middle classes in many cases remain vulnerable. Their employment (many work in the informal sector), education (few have university degrees) and consumer behaviour do not coincide with perceptions of a middle class that drives domestic consumption and growth. For instance, in Bolivia, Brazil, Chile and Mexico there are up to 44 million informal middle-class workers, more than 60% of the total middle-class working population of 72 million. Not surprisingly, social protection systems fail to reach even half of this population, as coverage rates of informal workers are extremely limited: below 15% in Brazil, Chile and Mexico, and almost negligible in Bolivia.

    This middle class is unlike that which became the engine of development in many OECD countries.

    The susceptibility of emerging non-poor populations in Africa is even more striking. Depite the upward trend, with a growing middle class, ownership of durable goods such as passenger cars remains a rarity. Even in economies like Mauritius or South Africa where durable goods ownership has grown considerably, less than one-fifth of households have passenger cars.

    This vulnerability is especially worrying, since if those in the middle have precarious incomes and unstable employment, their consumption cannot be counted upon to drive national development, nor can their growth be taken as a sign of social progress. What is more, their political preferences may veer towards populist platforms not necessarily conducive to good economic management.

    Middle class expectations in emerging and developing countries are rising and evolving as their countries’ economic situations improve, following Hirschman’s “tunnel effect”. They are no longer satisfied with simply having access to public services; they are increasingly concerned with their quality. Providing the quality services that the middle class demands is far more complicated than simply providing access to them and can be a source of friction, conflicts and political upheaval.

    We have the recent example of Chile. After decades of high economic growth, Chile has become an international player with a competitive economy. Yet in the second half of 2011, students and others staged massive protests against the government, demanding greater access to high-quality, inexpensive education. They are no longer satisfied with having access to education. They want cheaper and better education, which is much harder to deliver. As the demand for public services is soaring, the capacity of the government to respond to these demands is expanding too, but at a slower rate.

    Since middle classes remain vulnerable, they are dissatisfied with state services. Governments should put policies in place to fight the vulnerabilities in order to benefit from middle class support. Policies should promote upward social mobility, such as education, and provide safety nets that protect the most vulnerable segments when facing life risks (unemployment, old age, disability, parenthood).

    If publicly provided services are of high quality, a constituency for comprehensive social protection systems can be built thanks to the middle class, that can participate in contribution-based systems. If publicly-provided services are of low quality, then those in the middle are more likely to consider themselves losers in the fiscal bargain and are less willing to finance the public sector.

    While the middle class is rapidly expanding in emerging and developing countries, in rich countries it is shrinking and feels incapable of defending the standards of living that have characterised a middle-class lifestyle for centuries. England, Israel and Spain are just a few examples of countries where people take to the streets protesting a situation that for many has become unbearable. Middle and working classes have been carrying too much of the burden of the economic crisis; there has been a shift in wealth and income from them to the wealthier groups of society that is no longer acceptable.

    The rising expectations of the expanding middle class in developing countries contrast with the stagnating living standards of a shrinking middle class in OECD countries. Today both middle classes are awakening. Each with its own specificities, will these middle classes be agents of change?
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    Default Your planter is now useful - plant your garlics

    The recent price hikes prompted an irate President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono to tell the two ministries to sit down and stabilise prices. "What I heard was blame pointed out from one ministry to another. This is bad," he said last week. "(The Trade Ministry and Agriculture Ministry) should work night and day. People need certainty and solutions from these ministries."

    Depok mayor Nur Mahmudi Ismail has taken matters into his own hands, urging 900 housewives in a family welfare movement to plant garlic and shallots. "(Home gardening) could become a solution in dealing with the increasing prices of shallots and garlic," he was quoted by The Jakarta Post as saying.
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    This is a very important article for Singapore's Politicians.
    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    An emerging middle class
    Mario Pezzini
    Director, OECD Development Centre

    Mario Pezzini


    The increase in average incomes and the fall in levels of absolute poverty, in particular during the last decade, suggest that an increasing proportion of the world’s population is neither rich nor poor by national standards but finds itself in the middle of the income distribution.

    In 2009 the middle class included 1.8 billion people, with Europe (664 million), Asia (525 million) North America (338 million) accounting for the highest number of people belonging to this group. Even in Africa, where middle class’s growth has not been very robust, it has nonetheless been noticeable and contributed to increased domestic consumption in many countries. Sales of refrigerators, television sets, mobile phones, motors and automobiles have surged in virtually every African country in recent years. Possession of cars and motor cycles in Ghana, for example, has increased by 81% since 2006.

    This expansion continues. The size of the “global middle class” will increase from 1.8 billion in 2009 to 3.2 billion by 2020 and 4.9 billion by 2030. The bulk of this growth will come from Asia: by 2030 Asia will represent 66% of the global middle-class population and 59% of middle-class consumption, compared to 28% and 23%, respectively in 2009, according to the figure below.



    The developing world’s “emerging middle class” is a critical economic and social actor because of its potential as an engine of growth, particularly in the largest developing countries such as China and India but also in sub-Saharan Africa. History tells us that those in the middle have in the past vigorously accumulated capital, be it physical (plant, equipment or housing) or human (education or health). Consolidating this incipient middle income group into a stable middle class could provide a solid foundation for economic progress by driving consumption and domestic demand.

    When contrasting the experience of Brazil and Korea, this becomes evident. In the 1960s the countries had similar income levels and rates of growth; by the 1980s, however, due to high inequality in Brazil, the middle class made up only 29% of the population, in contrast to Korea’s 53%. Its middle class enabled Korea to shift away from exportdriven growth towards domestic consumption, a transition that did not occur in Brazil. Today, this opportunity presents itself to Brazil. Thanks to a decrease in poverty from almost 40% of the population in 2001 to around 25% in 2009, 31 million people joined the middle class in Brazil. Today 52% of Brazil’s population is middle class.

    But middle classes are not only a motor of consumption and domestic demand, their social role remains equally important. Middle classes are believed to support democracy and progressive but moderate political platforms. Strong middle classes can influence economic development through more active participation in the political process, expressing support for political programmes and electoral platforms, in particular those that promote inclusive growth.

    Despite having incomes which are above international or even national poverty lines, middle classes in many cases remain vulnerable. Their employment (many work in the informal sector), education (few have university degrees) and consumer behaviour do not coincide with perceptions of a middle class that drives domestic consumption and growth. For instance, in Bolivia, Brazil, Chile and Mexico there are up to 44 million informal middle-class workers, more than 60% of the total middle-class working population of 72 million. Not surprisingly, social protection systems fail to reach even half of this population, as coverage rates of informal workers are extremely limited: below 15% in Brazil, Chile and Mexico, and almost negligible in Bolivia.

    This middle class is unlike that which became the engine of development in many OECD countries.

    The susceptibility of emerging non-poor populations in Africa is even more striking. Depite the upward trend, with a growing middle class, ownership of durable goods such as passenger cars remains a rarity. Even in economies like Mauritius or South Africa where durable goods ownership has grown considerably, less than one-fifth of households have passenger cars.

    This vulnerability is especially worrying, since if those in the middle have precarious incomes and unstable employment, their consumption cannot be counted upon to drive national development, nor can their growth be taken as a sign of social progress. What is more, their political preferences may veer towards populist platforms not necessarily conducive to good economic management.

    Middle class expectations in emerging and developing countries are rising and evolving as their countries’ economic situations improve, following Hirschman’s “tunnel effect”. They are no longer satisfied with simply having access to public services; they are increasingly concerned with their quality. Providing the quality services that the middle class demands is far more complicated than simply providing access to them and can be a source of friction, conflicts and political upheaval.

    We have the recent example of Chile. After decades of high economic growth, Chile has become an international player with a competitive economy. Yet in the second half of 2011, students and others staged massive protests against the government, demanding greater access to high-quality, inexpensive education. They are no longer satisfied with having access to education. They want cheaper and better education, which is much harder to deliver. As the demand for public services is soaring, the capacity of the government to respond to these demands is expanding too, but at a slower rate.

    Since middle classes remain vulnerable, they are dissatisfied with state services. Governments should put policies in place to fight the vulnerabilities in order to benefit from middle class support. Policies should promote upward social mobility, such as education, and provide safety nets that protect the most vulnerable segments when facing life risks (unemployment, old age, disability, parenthood).

    If publicly provided services are of high quality, a constituency for comprehensive social protection systems can be built thanks to the middle class, that can participate in contribution-based systems. If publicly-provided services are of low quality, then those in the middle are more likely to consider themselves losers in the fiscal bargain and are less willing to finance the public sector.

    While the middle class is rapidly expanding in emerging and developing countries, in rich countries it is shrinking and feels incapable of defending the standards of living that have characterised a middle-class lifestyle for centuries. England, Israel and Spain are just a few examples of countries where people take to the streets protesting a situation that for many has become unbearable. Middle and working classes have been carrying too much of the burden of the economic crisis; there has been a shift in wealth and income from them to the wealthier groups of society that is no longer acceptable.

    The rising expectations of the expanding middle class in developing countries contrast with the stagnating living standards of a shrinking middle class in OECD countries. Today both middle classes are awakening. Each with its own specificities, will these middle classes be agents of change?

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    Deleted. Duplicate posting.......

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    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008
    This is a very important article for Singapore's Politicians.
    rise of China/India middle class is both a challenge and an opportunity

    if you can predict what 900m of new Chinese/Indian middle class will buy 10y later (e.g. properties in Singapore) ... u win liao

    of course, we all have to worry how our children can compete in this meritocratic Singapore ... u can see why LKY is so confident of Singapore position in next 10-20y .. just go ICA and see the queue of Chinese/Indians

    ABSD can only go up from here ...
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    in my personal view, i believe it thinks a mammoth or supernatural effort on the part of the PRC/Indian govt to restructure their economies.

    firstly, they are still net export countries. secondly, the local businesses are hinged on cheap labour for decades and will need a radical shift to remain competitive. thirdly, social/wealth gaps are too huge and any reforms will be painful and long-suffering. fourthly, there needs to be really strong political will to see through transformations and the political volatility (in India), opaqueness (in PRC), disconnect between central and local govt are just few of many hurdles that need to be negotiated. fifthly, are these economies prepared to kick the addiction to cheap labour when SEA countries are growing in competitiveness?

    i can list more questions. though i do not doubt the eventual goal of promoting more consumerism in these countries, the question is when and how it is achieved.

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    Quote Originally Posted by danguard
    Increasing receptivity of Singapore to the chinese .... I was auditing a masters class at NUS ... And realized that more than half of the masters students are Chinese nationals - guess where they will find jobs after graduating with a masters degree at NUS
    u meant that they will get jobs in sgp?

    not all will find jobs in sgp, 6 months back i met a NUS china gal on the plane to shanghai, she flew for her interview as banker.

    doesnt like sgp life, as many feel its stressed up, being look down as china-ian, no friends, and dont feel at china hometown.

    perhaps asking more china-ian frds will have better feedback

    and these pple are rich enuff and not necessary after the big dough payout in sgp. and the NUS gal was wearing zenith and branded all over.

    so please, sgp is no big deal to them.

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    IMO, India will have more challenge than China so India middle class number will probably stay around 300m instead of expanding to 600m rapidly due to poor infra + protectionism + high inflation

    For China, the advantage is that they still have huge surplus that can be invested into infra like HSR ... and they are not lacking of cheap labor from the wild wild west

    Give u an example, Oracle has development center in ChengDu ... the pay is probably 1/5 of Beijing

    and you walk around, China is open to FDI, their retail market is full of competition allowing them to control inflation better ... e.g. it is now also common to buy things directly from Alibaba online at cheaper rate ...
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    IMO, India will have more challenge than China so India middle class number will probably stay around 300m instead of expanding to 600m rapidly due to poor infra + protectionism + high inflation

    For China, the advantage is that they still have huge surplus that can be invested into infra like HSR ... and they are not lacking of cheap labor from the wild wild west

    Give u an example, Oracle has development center in ChengDu ... the pay is probably 1/5 of Beijing

    and you walk around, China is open to FDI, their retail market is full of competition allowing them to control inflation better ... e.g. it is now also common to buy things directly from Alibaba online at cheaper rate ...
    while i agree with your view, i'm equally on tenderhooks concerning china's opaqueness/lack of financial transparency - e.g. the validity of the official stats

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    Quote Originally Posted by eng81157
    while i agree with your view, i'm equally on tenderhooks concerning china's opaqueness/lack of financial transparency - e.g. the validity of the official stats
    I am also doubtful of USA stats.

    Anyway, we can form our own opinions but sometimes when it comes to investing, we have no choice but to follow what the general market is trending.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jwong71
    u meant that they will get jobs in sgp?

    not all will find jobs in sgp, 6 months back i met a NUS china gal on the plane to shanghai, she flew for her interview as banker.

    doesnt like sgp life, as many feel its stressed up, being look down as china-ian, no friends, and dont feel at china hometown.

    perhaps asking more china-ian frds will have better feedback

    and these pple are rich enuff and not necessary after the big dough payout in sgp. and the NUS gal was wearing zenith and branded all over.

    so please, sgp is no big deal to them.
    Spore is one of the most PRC-friendly countries outside of China. These PRCs are simply not hungry enough or too soft if they are even picky about Spore. Strawberry generation?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rosy
    I am also doubtful of USA stats.

    Anyway, we can form our own opinions but sometimes when it comes to investing, we have no choice but to follow what the general market is trending.
    at least USA stats bureau, unlike China's, didn't do a massive coverup of tens of millions of deaths in recent history

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    Quote Originally Posted by august
    Spore is one of the most PRC-friendly countries outside of China. These PRCs are simply not hungry enough or too soft if they are even picky about Spore. Strawberry generation?
    those can afford to come here can afford for studies, spend, gamble at casino are from better family. which they do not want to be far apart from frds, and home.

    only those struggle with life, with no education background wants to work here.
    LAN LAN

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    Quote Originally Posted by jwong71
    those can afford to come here can afford for studies, spend, gamble at casino are from better family. which they do not want to be far apart from frds, and home.

    only those struggle with life, with no education background wants to work here.
    LAN LAN
    Actually, most china national graduates here will likely to get a job in Singapore as it is very difficult to find a job in China now for fresh graduates.

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    market is always right, dun believe in any garmen stats, only believe in your own eyes and market

    and for those who have never been to China, you should go see for yourself (visit first tier, 2nd tier and 3rd tier cities in east/west), don't anyhow just speculate like Jim Chanos

    China does not need to import people, unlike us
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    You will be surprised that many young talented tour guides in China who speak very good English are uni graduates. Tour guides is definitely not their top career choice.

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    For our next generation, shouldnt government tightens the immigration policies to make it harder for these group of people coming in to steal away middle/upper middles (PMET) jobs?

    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    it is the number that kills, US only has 100m middle class, China/India each 300m and China urbanization is going to create another 300m

    imagine 700m middle class fighting the same jobs/same properties/same resources everywhere

    LKY once criticized Singaporeans youth not as hardworking/hard-driving as the immigrants ...

    the future:

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    This ghost is smart!

    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    market is always right, dun believe in any garmen stats, only believe in your own eyes and market

    and for those who have never been to China, you should go see for yourself (visit first tier, 2nd tier and 3rd tier cities in east/west), don't anyhow just speculate like Jim Chanos

    China does not need to import people, unlike us

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rosy
    Actually, most china national graduates here will likely to get a job in Singapore as it is very difficult to find a job in China now for fresh graduates.
    spot on. those cant find a job in china, are from lower or medium family with no network and dough.

    those rich graduates, can enjoy lagi shiok life back there.

    out of 10 prc students in sgp, how many are from rich and medium family?
    lastly, rmb to sgd conversion is alot especially living and studying in sgp. so u think how many lower , medium family can afford.?

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