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Thread: Slump in private home resale market

  1. #1
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    Default Slump in private home resale market

    http://www.straitstimes.com/archive/...arket-20130411

    Slump in private home resale market

    SRX data shows March volumes down by about 50% year on year

    Published on Apr 11, 2013

    By Melissa Tan


    THE private home resale market took a major hit last month from the seventh round of cooling measures unveiled in January.

    Resale volumes in March slumped by half from the same month last year.

    The impact on prices was more muted, though, as average resale prices slid 2 per cent from February, Singapore Real Estate Exchange (SRX), a consortium of the country's leading property agencies said yesterday.

    A total of 609 transactions were recorded in March by SRX. This was 87 per cent higher than in February, as Chinese New Year fell within that month.

    But analysts noted that the figure was about 50 per cent lower than March last year.

    Condo resale volumes for the January to March period were also nearly 40 per cent lower than the preceding quarter.

    DWG senior manager Lee Sze Teck cited sellers' "reluctance" to lower prices. This contrasts with the new sales market, where developers have been quick to offer incentives to offset the impact of cooling measures, Mr Lee said, pointing out that new sales rose by about 12.5 per cent in the first quarter from the preceding one.

    But though volumes have come down sharply, prices did not follow suit in March.

    The dip in condo resale prices was largest in the suburban region, which posted a 3 per cent decline to $1,071 per sq ft on average. That is still above the psychologically daunting $1,000 psf threshold that suburban condo resale prices exceeded for the first time in February this year.

    City centre average resale prices dropped 2 per cent to $1,788 psf, while city fringe prices stayed largely flat at $1,301 psf on average last month, SRX said in its flash report.

    "As long as interest rates stay low, holding costs are low and sellers are not compelled to cut prices," said ERA Realty key executive officer Eugene Lim.

    Softening prices combined with higher rents boosted rental yields islandwide last month.

    The city fringe had the highest gross rental yield at 3.8 per cent, followed by suburban yields at 3.7 per cent. The city centre had the lowest rental yield at 3.1 per cent.

    On a quarterly basis, however, overall condo resale prices grew 4.2 per cent, owing to stronger increases in January and February, SRX said.

    A DTZ report yesterday said price growth across most non-landed segments slowed by more than half in the first quarter compared with the fourth quarter last year.

    But sequential price growth in the first quarter was stronger than in the corresponding period last year, which was immediately after an additional buyer's stamp duty was imposed for the first time.

    This could be due to buyers "getting accustomed" to the duty and earlier tighter loan restrictions, said DTZ.

    March's flash report is the first time SRX has used a weighted average to compute overall average resale price.

    Without this, noted OrangeTee research and consultancy head Christine Li, March resale prices would have increased from February.

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  2. #2
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    Because not one selling or price really decline ?

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    I think sooner or later will publish size data.

    Price drop could also mean size increase.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Not surprising to see a stalemate between seller and buyer now. It's a 'see who blinks first' situation.

    Normally jitters in the macro economic environment will trigger a sell-down scenario. i.e desperate sellers match down to buyer's asking price. In my humble opinion, the probability of downside is probably higher than the upside.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pool100
    Not surprising to see a stalemate between seller and buyer now. It's a 'see who blinks first' situation.

    Normally jitters in the macro economic environment will trigger a sell-down scenario. i.e desperate sellers match down to buyer's asking price. In my humble opinion, the probability of downside is probably higher than the upside.
    There is no one blinking.
    Those who own investment properties now are very reluctant to sell anything because once sold, cannot buy back unless you can find something that is more than 20% undervalued.

    So supply is shrinking. Office Boy get calls everyday asking if I wanna sell my properties. Just imagine if you own 3-4 properties now, will you want to sell one now and try to invest in another one ? The churning cost is way too high for you to find another property.

    You certainly would rather sit back, watch your properties' price inch up a bit a bit every quarter and collect the FAT rental now. If you take rental minus interest expense, you will realise most landlords and now laughing silently to the bank every month. Just ask any landlord ... they will tell u secretly.

    DKSG

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    Why need to laugh silently......we laugh loudly

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    [QUOTE=henryhk]Why need to laugh silently......we laugh loudly......and we are not secretive!

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    loudly

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    The agents are saying rental budget is dropping. Especially for CCR.
    Anybody here experiencing it?
    Or rental really still going strong?

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    A well deserving crash will crash and prevent all landlords from exploiting.

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    Seems like less less people willing to sell now.

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    Furthermore, most of them would have loan package that has low spread of as low as 0.6% and span over 30-40 years.
    Quote Originally Posted by DKSG
    There is no one blinking.
    Those who own investment properties now are very reluctant to sell anything because once sold, cannot buy back unless you can find something that is more than 20% undervalued.

    So supply is shrinking. Office Boy get calls everyday asking if I wanna sell my properties. Just imagine if you own 3-4 properties now, will you want to sell one now and try to invest in another one ? The churning cost is way too high for you to find another property.

    You certainly would rather sit back, watch your properties' price inch up a bit a bit every quarter and collect the FAT rental now. If you take rental minus interest expense, you will realise most landlords and now laughing silently to the bank every month. Just ask any landlord ... they will tell u secretly.

    DKSG

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    The large ones with high quantum may be affected. Those asking $5-6k ones should not be a problem.
    Quote Originally Posted by Khng8
    The agents are saying rental budget is dropping. Especially for CCR.
    Anybody here experiencing it?
    Or rental really still going strong?

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    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008
    Furthermore, most of them would have loan package that has low spread of as low as 0.6% and span over 30-40 years.
    Actually, for the people with this kind of loan, has the best deal anywhere in the world today. I don't understand anyone who want to let go of it and sell it.

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    When the fear finally sinks in and the thought of having to hold on to an inflated asset with a mortgage to service over 30-40 years makes no sense.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Amber Woods
    When the fear finally sinks in and the thought of having to hold on to an inflated asset with a mortgage to service over 30-40 years makes no sense.
    If you have multiple investment properties. Don't worry about mortgage over 30-40 years... Inflation will pay the loan for you over the long term. If need be, sell one or two to pay off the rest....

    What is better than debt in a high inflation, low interest rate environment.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sh
    If you have multiple investment properties. Don't worry about mortgage over 30-40 years... Inflation will pay the loan for you over the long term. If need be, sell one or two to pay off the rest....

    What is better than debt in a high inflation, low interest rate environment.
    Agree that one may be better off selling off one or two to pay for the rest for multiple investment properties.

    High inflation, low interest are only temporary and things will be back to normal unless of course you believe otherwise.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Amber Woods
    Agree that one may be better off selling off one or two to pay for the rest for multiple investment properties.

    High inflation, low interest are only temporary and things will be back to normal unless of course you believe otherwise.
    Make hay while the sun shines...

    Adjust strategy when the situation changes....

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    No worry, inflated asset is no longer inflated with the massive paper money printing from US, Europe, Japan & China now going on!

    Quote Originally Posted by Amber Woods
    When the fear finally sinks in and the thought of having to hold on to an inflated asset with a mortgage to service over 30-40 years makes no sense.

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    Quote Originally Posted by heehee
    No worry, inflated asset is no longer inflated with the massive paper money printing from US, Europe, Japan & China now going on!
    We had earlier discussed this and my response is below.

    Quote Originally Posted by Amber Woods
    Agree that one may be better off selling off one or two to pay for the rest for multiple investment properties.

    High inflation, low interest are only temporary and things will be back to normal unless of course you believe otherwise.

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    Inflation due to money printing will be there forever!

    Quote Originally Posted by Amber Woods
    We had earlier discussed this and my response is below.

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    Quote Originally Posted by heehee
    Inflation due to money printing will be there forever!
    The government does not think so, IMF does not think so. Wish you well!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Amber Woods
    The government does not think so, IMF does not think so. Wish you well!
    Everyone knows that once Kopi price increased from 50 cents to 60 cents to 80 cents, it never never went back ever ever again.

    Money once printed, it hard to unprint it anymore.

    Once your pay increase by 10%, it is very difficult for your company to cut it back.

    DKSG

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    Well said! I wonder is Amber Woods the govt &/or IMF head to know what they think? Very often, what people think and what they say are different! What do you expect the govt to say for massive money printing? That it will reduce your inflation and hence cost of living while making your pay increase much faster than inflation?
    While we also know that in 199x govt ask people to study IT & engineering to be IT professionals and engineers as there was a shortage, but do their children really go study IT & engineering and then work as IT professionals and engineers?


    Quote Originally Posted by DKSG
    Everyone knows that once Kopi price increased from 50 cents to 60 cents to 80 cents, it never never went back ever ever again.

    Money once printed, it hard to unprint it anymore.

    Once your pay increase by 10%, it is very difficult for your company to cut it back.

    DKSG
    Quote Originally Posted by Amber Woods
    The government does not think so, IMF does not think so. Wish you well!
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by heehee
    Inflation due to money printing will be there forever!
    Last edited by teddybear; 13-04-13 at 23:21.

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    My development has zero listing. About one month plus back, it has 2 listings for rental and they are both gone now. All these years, it has always has listing until the last CM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DKSG
    Everyone knows that once Kopi price increased from 50 cents to 60 cents to 80 cents, it never never went back ever ever again.

    Money once printed, it hard to unprint it anymore.

    Once your pay increase by 10%, it is very difficult for your company to cut it back.

    DKSG
    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    Well said! I wonder is Amber Woods the govt &/or IMF head to know what they think?Quote:
    Originally Posted by heehee
    Inflation due to money printing will be there forever!
    It is strange that you are comparing kopi with property. If you think property prces will not come down once money printed, good luck to you.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Amber Woods
    We had earlier discussed this and my response is below.
    The world is forming trading "bloc" among themselves and among the BRICS eg Aussie now trade with China using Yuan. This is just beginning of the decline of US$$$. China has literally stopped buying US debt instruments.. at some point of time, Post Bernake or post Obama era will realise American $$$ decline just as British pound lose its potency. America will realise that some of its allies will abandon her and join forces with BRICS.
    US will shut down its $$$ printing machine and increase its interest rate.

    The after effects of the catastrophic 2008 ..2009 are only temporarily halted n delayed .. its real ugly head will rear in next 3 years. You can bet on this.

    The Mkt surge now in Dow Jones and S&P is just a prelude to a steep decline. History always repeats itself. You can bet on this.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TravieJackie
    Seems like less less people willing to sell now.
    Put the reverse on your thought process.. more and more people are careful and not willing to "gungho" buy now given current situations ...

    What happen when there is a stalemate ... r u at the tail end of a bull or beginning of a bull .. food for thought

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    Quote Originally Posted by The_Way_I_See_It
    Put the reverse on your thought process.. more and more people are careful and not willing to "gungho" buy now given current situations ...

    What happen when there is a stalemate ... r u at the tail end of a bull or beginning of a bull .. food for thought
    Are u expecting a sudden crash or a gradual decline?

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    Quote Originally Posted by The_Way_I_See_It
    Put the reverse on your thought process.. more and more people are careful and not willing to "gungho" buy now given current situations ...

    What happen when there is a stalemate ... r u at the tail end of a bull or beginning of a bull .. food for thought
    Travie is saying there are lesser and lesser people selling now.
    To the agent, selling is usually the first leg.

    Once u get a unit to sell,then you got chance to make money.

    I think you didnt view enough resale/subsale units. If you have, you will realised that the asking prices are now still slightly higher than last transacted (maybe at most 3-5% below depending on facing/floors).

    Like I mentioned earlier, lesser people selling is because people can no longer replace (other than paying extra 10% which usually eat into their 30-40% profits).

    If you are holding 3 properties now, will you try to sell one of them and hope to find a replacemen with a higher profit ? Very unlikely due to the ABSD.

    DKSG

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