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Thread: The truth is out there ...M3 growth and immigration is correlated

  1. #1
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    Default The truth is out there ...M3 growth and immigration is correlated

    1st timers ... do not procrastinate, get a property today to protect yourself against rampant inflation while developers are still dangling discounts and MND/HDB are in goodwill to offer you super under valued BTOs and ECs

    Mai tu liao .... don't sit on a pile of cash that devalues every single minute, M3 grew 7.5% in 2012, if GDP growth was 1.5%, that means inflation of 6%

    Once our population hits 7m, be prepared for 700k BTO, 2000psf OCR
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  2. #2
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    what if i have other investment that give me 8%++ yield yearly?
    I took the road less traveled by, and that has made all the difference.” - Robert Frost quotes (American poet, 1874-1963)

  3. #3
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    a few other interesting facts to wake you up

    1. M3 has grown by 5x since 1992 to 2012 (20y), this represents annual compound growth of 8% pa

    2. Most of the growth comes after 2004, annual compound rate exceeds 10%pa

    3. Rampant money printing elsewhere in G7 does not help, it makes things worse
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by roly8
    what if i have other investment that give me 8%++ yield yearly?
    if you can guarantee that for life without failure .. i am willing to park all my $$ with u It is compound 8% growth.. not simply 8% yield hoh
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  5. #5
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    yea. me is planning to compound 7-8% every year for next 10 years..



    then retire with monthly $4k passive income
    I took the road less traveled by, and that has made all the difference.” - Robert Frost quotes (American poet, 1874-1963)

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by roly8
    yea. me is planning to compound 7-8% every year for next 10 years..



    then retire with monthly $4k passive income
    the problem is you can only do that for next 10y, not for life
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  7. #7
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    Malaysia is only slightly worse but they do have higher GDP growth??
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    the problem is you can only do that for next 10y, not for life
    nothing is forever

    at least i don't need to worry about paying debt lor

    but i do really want to diversify into real asset one day..
    I took the road less traveled by, and that has made all the difference.” - Robert Frost quotes (American poet, 1874-1963)

  9. #9
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    Cool

    Quote Originally Posted by roly8
    yea. me is planning to compound 7-8% every year for next 10 years..



    then retire with monthly $4k passive income
    Ponzi ???

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by roly8
    nothing is forever

    at least i don't need to worry about paying debt lor

    but i do really want to diversify into real asset one day..
    bro, prior into venturing into my latest purchase, i also sitting on real cash with fully paid HDB and car.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by roly8
    yea. me is planning to compound 7-8% every year for next 10 years..



    then retire with monthly $4k passive income
    , I hoping for that too.

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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    the problem is you can only do that for next 10y, not for life
    So long as U.S. the A doesn't pull the plug.

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    You have a sense of the ruling party's intention when the minister in charge of HDB begins to define 'de-linking' in his own terms and meanings.

    Make BTO affordable, etc is all BshXt.

    Collecting more taxes both for housing and transport looks like the more real meaning of 'delinking'..

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    Quote Originally Posted by cnud
    You have a sense of the ruling party's intention when the minister in charge of HDB begins to define 'de-linking' in his own terms and meanings.

    Make BTO affordable, etc is all BshXt.

    Collecting more taxes both for housing and transport looks like the more real meaning of 'delinking'..
    like within 200m of polling station is different from inside the station.
    like ruling on loan/guarantee to IMF also has own definition.
    like election is an event/process by the judge.

    where to buy PAP english dictionary?

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    Quote Originally Posted by cnud
    You have a sense of the ruling party's intention when the minister in charge of HDB begins to define 'de-linking' in his own terms and meanings.

    Make BTO affordable, etc is all BshXt.

    Collecting more taxes both for housing and transport looks like the more real meaning of 'delinking'..
    of course it is BS

    let's do a simple math


    Previously:

    • Price of New Flats = Price of Resale Flats * X% Discount
    • Cost of Construction + Land Cost = Price of New Flat
    • But Land Cost is pegged to Price of Resale Flats

    Now

    • Just remove 1st equation, while keeping the rest
    • Cost of Construction + Land Cost = Price of New Flat
    • Land Cost is STILL pegged to Price of Resale Flats

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by eng81157
    of course it is BS

    let's do a simple math


    Previously:

    • Price of New Flats = Price of Resale Flats * X% Discount
    • Cost of Construction + Land Cost = Price of New Flat
    • But Land Cost is pegged to Price of Resale Flats
    Now

    • Just remove 1st equation, while keeping the rest
    • Cost of Construction + Land Cost = Price of New Flat
    • Land Cost is STILL pegged to Price of Resale Flats
    De-linking will make the prices of BTO more within government control and less politically sensitive. I suppose it will also open up the gate for resale HDB prices to climb at a faster rate since BTOs will be kept affordable for 1st timers. If the price floor that is set by resale HDB climbs, it probably means OCRs and RCRs condos will also climb in tandem. Not a bad idea for those who are owning investment properties.

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    And if they sell land too cheaply it's treason.

  18. #18
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    pap is delink from sg citizen.
    cow's brain is delink from his mouth.

    this is how u use the word delink.
    Ong lai ah!

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    Quote Originally Posted by hyenergix
    De-linking will make the prices of BTO more within government control and less politically sensitive. I suppose it will also open up the gate for resale HDB prices to climb at a faster rate since BTOs will be kept affordable for 1st timers. If the price floor that is set by resale HDB climbs, it probably means OCRs and RCRs condos will also climb in tandem. Not a bad idea for those who are owning investment properties.
    well, referring to my simple work-out, the de-link is merely a play of words while in actual fact, there isn't.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by eng81157
    well, referring to my simple work-out, the de-link is merely a play of words while in actual fact, there isn't.
    It is a policy change but I am not too sure what the BTO price will be pegged to since the resale reference prices has been removed. Right now we are seeing very little effect because it is just implemented. There is very little reason for people to complain to government about high housing prices in future because BTOs are available and prices will be kept affordable/highly subsidised.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hyenergix
    It is a policy change but I am not too sure what the BTO price will be pegged to since the resale reference prices has been removed. Right now we are seeing very little effect because it is just implemented. ....
    delink since KBW took over in 2011 le.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hyenergix
    It is a policy change but I am not too sure what the BTO price will be pegged to since the resale reference prices has been removed. Right now we are seeing very little effect because it is just implemented. There is very little reason for people to complain to government about high housing prices in future because BTOs are available and prices will be kept affordable/highly subsidised.
    until the cost of land is not pegged to resale units anymore, then it is truly a de-link

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by hyenergix
    It is a policy change but I am not too sure what the BTO price will be pegged to since the resale reference prices has been removed. Right now we are seeing very little effect because it is just implemented. There is very little reason for people to complain to government about high housing prices in future because BTOs are available and prices will be kept affordable/highly subsidised.
    say, we forget about polities and their motives.

    say BTO stays at same price (assume same floor area) for 5 years. resale presumably continues to rise. what will happen when MOP is over?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shanhz
    say, we forget about polities and their motives.

    say BTO stays at same price (assume same floor area) for 5 years. resale presumably continues to rise. what will happen when MOP is over?
    the bto owners will huat big time
    i have a friend got the Bendemeer Light high floor, given the location, i find it value for money.

    so far is buyer complain buying price expensive, is there any seller complain sell price too high?

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    Quote Originally Posted by hopeful
    delink since KBW took over in 2011 le.
    Oh ya, just found the article. The delink is real and the effect will be more significant as time passes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hyenergix
    Oh ya, just found the article. The delink is real and the effect will be more significant as time passes.
    will the "stagnant" BTO prices drag down resale prices? because more (eligible) pple will turn to BTO instead of resale.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shanhz
    will the "stagnant" BTO prices drag down resale prices? because more (eligible) pple will turn to BTO instead of resale.
    Upgrading is in our blood. 面子 is very important to the Chinese. As soon as the HDB loan is repaid, most people will think of upgrading into an EC or condo. Resale in central part of Singapore is always in high demand due to proximity to workplace and parents.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shanhz
    will the "stagnant" BTO prices drag down resale prices? because more (eligible) pple will turn to BTO instead of resale.
    it will definitely pull some locals from resale market to bto if the discount is significant enough, but i think price of resale also depend on the increasing pool of pr coz they can only buy from resale market.
    Ong lai ah!

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