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Thread: PAP historical demographic prediction

  1. #1
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    Default PAP historical demographic prediction

    from 3.2m in 1989



    to 5.5m in 2001



    to 6.5m to 6.9m in 2013

    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    http://www.spp.nus.edu.sg/ips/docs/m...ion_020208.pdf

    in 2008, MM Lee said he "not quite sold" on 6.5m population, instead he thinks 5.5m is better
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    can we have lky back as the PM??????

    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    http://www.spp.nus.edu.sg/ips/docs/m...ion_020208.pdf

    in 2008, MM Lee said he "not quite sold" on 6.5m population, instead he thinks 5.5m is better

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    I maintain 6.9 mil as under projection since day 1 We should be at least hitting 7.6 mil if we maintain simply at 2% growth in population up to 2030.

    It is very likely that if you add the foreign students and visitors, we would have already exceeded 5.5 mil population as of 2013, which is why everywhere is crowded.

    The following infrastructure will be strained by 2018 when we hit 6.0 mil officially assuming 2% growth rate:
    • Transportation
    • Power supply
    • Water supply
    • Sewage treatment plants
    • Schools
    • Hospitals
    • Recreational facilities and spaces
    • F&B outlets

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    we shld build another town in wulu sgp and shift pple there and dont let pple travel freely
    this will help to prevent overcrowding


    Quote Originally Posted by hyenergix
    I maintain 6.9 mil as under projection since day 1 We should be at least hitting 7.6 mil if we maintain simply at 2% growth in population up to 2030.

    It is very likely that if you add the foreign students and visitors, we would have already exceeded 5.5 mil population as of 2013, which is why everywhere is crowded.

    The following infrastructure will be strained by 2018 when we hit 6.0 mil officially assuming 2% growth rate:
    • Transportation
    • Power supply
    • Water supply
    • Sewage treatment plants
    • Schools
    • Hospitals
    • Recreational facilities and spaces
    • F&B outlets

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    Quote Originally Posted by taeyeon
    we shld build another town in wulu sgp and shift pple there and dont let pple travel freely
    this will help to prevent overcrowding
    I project the only way out is more Singaporeans will go to JB for their recreational, shopping and space-out needs. Due to the surge in demand for goods and services, costs will go up very quickly (lead by rental and COE for now, which should cascade down to the consumers this year). Many people will be forced to go JB for these and retirement purposes. There is no way out to mitigate things less painfully due to the planning mistakes from 2005 onwards. In fact with the massive constructions, things will get worse in the next few years.

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    Quote Originally Posted by taeyeon
    we shld build another town in wulu sgp and shift pple there and dont let pple travel freely
    this will help to prevent overcrowding
    Haha... "wulu sgp"...on first read l thought you wrote Ulu Siglap

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    Quote Originally Posted by hyenergix
    I project the only way out is more Singaporeans will go to JB for their recreational, shopping and space-out needs. Due to the surge in demand for goods and services, costs will go up very quickly (lead by rental and COE for now, which should cascade down to the consumers this year). Many people will be forced to go JB for these and retirement purposes. There is no way out to mitigate things less painfully due to the planning mistakes from 2005 onwards. In fact with the massive constructions, things will get worse in the next few years.
    this is like HK-Zhuhai ... Zhuhai is like JB (Hong Kong ferry to Zhuhai takes 1 hour 30 minutes)
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    siglap is not wulu, even ghosts live there.

    you got a cemetery there that is rumours to be haunted lol

    http://www.streetdirectory.com/trave...ine_parade.php

    You find an obscure Muslim cemetery at the peak of Siglap, which is rumoured to be haunted. It holds the tomb of Sheikh Ali, a descendant of ancestral Malay kings and princes.

    Quote Originally Posted by howgozit
    Haha... "wulu sgp"...on first read l thought you wrote Ulu Siglap

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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    http://www.spp.nus.edu.sg/ips/docs/m...ion_020208.pdf

    in 2008, MM Lee said he "not quite sold" on 6.5m population, instead he thinks 5.5m is better
    Last time he also said no to IR.. Later changed his mind..

    With so much $$$ spend for the Vision2030.. On infrastructures, etc
    They'll make sure all the $$$ spend is all worthwhile..

    If want to stick on to 5.3m population.. think they won't bother to come out so much future plan & spend so much $$$

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    Anybody who has property will make money, be it in rental or capital appreciation. When u pour money into the land it will grow money.

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    Quote Originally Posted by star
    Anybody who has property will make money, be it in rental or capital appreciation. When u pour money into the land it will grow money.
    Yes, with so much infrastructure injection, population growth anticipation and global economy recover, the latest cooling measure should be fully breached by 2nd half of 2013.

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    Kenobi Wan another headache. Unpeg resale and bto makes bto the most undervalued class of property in singapore. BTO subscription rate instantly surge to 2.2 per unit, worse in mature estate. Our youngsters have become smarter?
    Affordable means small

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    Quote Originally Posted by yjcai
    Kenobi Wan another headache. Unpeg resale and bto makes bto the most undervalued class of property in singapore. BTO subscription rate instantly surge to 2.2 per unit, worse in mature estate. Our youngsters have become smarter?
    complaint then can get what they want

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    who is right ? 5.9m or 6.5m to 6.9m?
    5.9m enough for property to huat or not huh ?


    WP opposes Population White Paper, says its chairman Sylvia Lim
    It proposes an alternative population projection of about 5.9 million by 2030, and a greater tradeoff between economic growth and population expansion.
    Ms Lim charged that the Population White Paper's title - "A Sustainable Population for a Dynamic Singapore" - illustrated the Government's muddled priorities. Rather, it should be titled "A Dynamic Population for a Sustainable Singapore," she said.

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    Quote Originally Posted by taggy
    who is right ? 5.9m or 6.5m to 6.9m?
    5.9m enough for property to huat or not huh ?


    WP opposes Population White Paper, says its chairman Sylvia Lim
    It proposes an alternative population projection of about 5.9 million by 2030, and a greater tradeoff between economic growth and population expansion.
    Ms Lim charged that the Population White Paper's title - "A Sustainable Population for a Dynamic Singapore" - illustrated the Government's muddled priorities. Rather, it should be titled "A Dynamic Population for a Sustainable Singapore," she said.

    IR and Formula 1 publicity coupled with Europe and US crisis pushed Singapore to the limelight and thus the hot money ontop of the foreign influx......

    The perceived safe haven status with good governance has attracted much attention from foreigners but our housing policy has been too loose and easy for foreigners to spoil the market.

    The consequences are irreversible as the measures to stamp out foreigners from buying will only slow future purchases but the damage of influx has already been done.

    The most recent measures to cool by shortchanging Singaporeans their chances to own properties in Singapore are BIG FAT THUMBS DOWN that clearly shows foreigners are favoured over Singaporeans. Why?

    Foreigners who bought in early benefited....... If our government is really good, it will not be foreigners buying early and renting out to Singaporeans............ It would have been Singaporeans encouraged to buy early and then now reaping the benefits of renting out to foreigners.

    A good example is a foreigner who became PR and is now a Senior VP with a foreign bank owning a HDB and 3 other private properties.........

    Looking back, I look at National Service as a means to protect foreign investment rather than my homeland..... this is even more so for the future younger generation, whom I think will feel even more so in being alienated from the own country that they are born into.

    Analogy, Would parents dote on their own children more or their adopted ones?

    Parents = Singapore government
    Own children = Singaporeans
    Adopted children = foreign talents

    I guess we should look for other parents who dote on us more? Ans: Migrate out and be quitters?

    If not for family and parents, I guess many of us would have migrated out. Government is pretty smart to always encourage family ties, it's a way of locking us Singaporeans in while making us work hard for the foreigners.

    No doubt we need foreigners, but it should be low volume high quality providing gainful employment to Singaporean instead of high volume low quality, competing with Singaporeans for jobs.

    Economic prosperity in exchange for the never-will-be realization of the Singaporean identity..... (There seriously will not be a Singaporean identity, our melting pot has melted itself, there isn't a pot to talk about now.)

    Having said that, 5.9 million is more sustainable..... I seriously doubt our current infrastructure plans can keep up with the population growth.
    Last edited by solsys; 05-02-13 at 00:36.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rysk
    Last time he also said no to IR.. Later changed his mind..

    With so much $$$ spend for the Vision2030.. On infrastructures, etc
    They'll make sure all the $$$ spend is all worthwhile..

    If want to stick on to 5.3m population.. think they won't bother to come out so much future plan & spend so much $$$
    money for vision 2030 will come from the people

    thru SSD, ABSD, COE, tax, etc etc

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    I feel they will revised the figure downwards or else they will face a lot of problem in GE 2016 for sure... We will see more GRC in the east changing to blue instead of white...

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    I think they should revise the figures upwards because this is the reality.

    The things that should be done is to provide more incentives to the citizens in terms of pre-school childcare, education and medical insurance. The basic is not done to pacify the citizens yet there is this talk to increase population for benefits of Singapore. i.e. the benefits so far do not cascade down to the man in the street, yet the quality of life goes down, so many people are angry.

    The biggest competitor Iskandar is right at our door-step and offering many incentives as well to MNCs. Even our SMEs are biting the bait. What do you think?

    Several foreign firms prepare to leave S'pore
    Labour tightening measures have hit them hard; letter conveys concerns to minister
    By malminderjit singh
    Published February 05, 2013

    According to the latest manpower survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in Singapore, 5 per cent of respondent companies, made up of AmCham members, have already moved operations out of Singapore as a result of the labour tightening measures introduced last year. The survey, conducted in the third quarter of last year, showed that a further 15 per cent of respondents are looking at relocating their operations overseas

    Some foreign companies in Singapore have started to pull out of the country as the government tightens the inflow of foreign workers here. More could follow suit.
    According to the latest manpower survey by the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) in Singapore, 5 per cent of respondent companies, made up of AmCham members, have already moved operations out of Singapore as a result of the labour tightening measures introduced last year. The survey, conducted in the third quarter of last year, showed that a further 15 per cent of respondents are looking at relocating their operations overseas.

    "While we understand the pressures that Singapore's limited area and resources place on crafting long-term policy, we worry that the trajectory announced could significantly cut workforce growth and have drastic consequences for businesses and the economy of Singapore," said AmCham chairman Simon Kahn.

    "As the percentage of Singaporeans qualifying for PMET (professional, manager, executive and technician) jobs continues to increase, the supply of workers to fill these non-PMET roles will continue to shrink. Without access to foreign workers here in Singapore, companies that cannot adapt will be forced to leave the country."

    The Australian Chamber of Commerce (AustCham) Singapore as well as the British Chamber of Commerce said that some of their member companies have also been hit by the manpower crunch and are looking at moving out. AustCham Singapore president Graham Lee said that one of his chamber's members, involved in the food distribution business, was considering relocating to Iskandar Malaysia and others could follow suit.

    "A lot of our members find it (labour tightening) critical and the issue then is if this (Singapore) is the right place to be and also consequently if high costs or declining service standards become issues," Mr Lee explained.

    Yesterday, nine national chambers of commerce here wrote to Singapore's Acting Minister for Manpower Tan Chuan-Jin to voice their concerns about the new plans to calibrate the entry of foreign employees into Singapore as detailed in the White Paper released last week. The letter was issued by the AustCham on behalf of the rest.

    "Our members are concerned with the revision of government policies pertaining to the employment of foreign workers in Singapore and the resultant impact on the operations of foreign and local companies and the overall economy," the letter, signed-off by AustCham president Mr Lee, stated.

    It added that the change in the labour policy here could adversely impact Singapore's fortunes.

    "Singapore's openness to foreign labour has enabled it to attract, retain and absorb the best of foreign talent, providing it with a clear competitive advantage over its neighbours," said the letter, which also spoke on behalf of the British Chamber of Commerce, Canadian Chamber of Commerce, EuroCham, French Chamber of Commerce, Japanese Chamber of Commerce & Industry, New Zealand Chamber of Commerce and the Singapore-German Chamber of Industry & Commerce, in addition to AmCham.

    The nine chambers and their members wanted some certainty about being able to hire candidates with the necessary skills, knowledge and experience and to be able to tap into a larger labour workforce than is available in Singapore.

    The document also makes two other broad points. Firstly, younger foreign workers need to be brought in to drive productivity and innovation here so that restrictive labour policies don't lead to inflationary wages and raise business costs.

    Also, with fewer Singaporeans looking for non-PMET positions, there was a need to have more foreign workers in sectors such as service, construction and manufacturing - otherwise standards could slip.

    German multinational firm Bosch Group said it had become hard to find talent. "Competition for talent is stiff and as a high-technology company, we have a requirement for many niche and highly skilled roles. For these specific roles, we endeavour to examine Singapore's talent pool before looking outward," said Martin Hayes, president of Bosch Southeast Asia.

    Belinda Braggs, managing director of pharma consulting firm SeerPharma here in Singapore, said that she had not been able to renew the employment pass of a staffer who was managing a project. Local talent was hard to come by and now it was becoming difficult to bring in foreign talent. Nine years after setting up office here, she said that the situation could force her to leave.

    http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/prem...spore-20130205

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    Quote Originally Posted by hyenergix
    I think they should revise the figures upwards because this is the reality.

    The things that should be done is to provide more incentives to the citizens in terms of pre-school childcare, education and medical insurance. The basic is not done to pacify the citizens yet there is this talk to increase population for benefits of Singapore. i.e. the benefits so far do not cascade down to the man in the street, yet the quality of life goes down, so many people are angry.

    The biggest competitor Iskandar is right at our door-step and offering many incentives as well to MNCs. Even our SMEs are biting the bait. What do you think?
    absolutely. and all this propaganda about foreign firms pulling out is to tell us that we need a stable and open economy, so we NEED foreigners. suddenly everybody will get scared and agree with govt, yes yes, we need foreigners, please bring them to in to provide jobs. and with infrastructure planning for 6.9m, yes, garmen is ready to bring them in.

    all this... without addressing the fundamental - singaporean first. childcare, decent ppty, perhaps priority COE, all this shld target sporeans, some degree of protection in the workplace (else foreigners bring their own kind). make our own kind happy and they will be happy to welcome foreigners with open arms.

    again, a group of civil servant cannot understand this because they have not run a business b4. how do you make your customers happy? first, make your staff happy. they dun realise this. or perhaps, the cost of keeping s'poreans happy is too high, and they prefer to skip this step.

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    Quote Originally Posted by yjcai
    Kenobi Wan another headache. Unpeg resale and bto makes bto the most undervalued class of property in singapore. BTO subscription rate instantly surge to 2.2 per unit, worse in mature estate. Our youngsters have become smarter?
    not only that:

    1. target population of 7m scares a hell out of young gen, so now kiasu and chiong BTOs, no more delay

    2. cm7 seems like no effect, ppl realize cannot wait anymore

    3. stock market chiong, less chance of a deflation within next few years

    so now apply BTO probability drops to 20%
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by taeyeon
    siglap is not wulu, even ghosts live there.

    you got a cemetery there that is rumours to be haunted lol

    http://www.streetdirectory.com/trave...ine_parade.php

    You find an obscure Muslim cemetery at the peak of Siglap, which is rumoured to be haunted. It holds the tomb of Sheikh Ali, a descendant of ancestral Malay kings and princes.
    The one next to Flamingo Valley??
    When you have eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth

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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera

    1. target population of 7m scares a hell out of young gen, so now kiasu and chiong BTOs, no more delay
    http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...252193/1/.html

    2.2 first-timer applicants for each unit in latest BTO sales exercise

    Application rates for first-timers rose marginally in the latest Build-To-Order flats sales exercise, the first BTO offering this year.

    Applications close at midnight but overall as of 5pm, there were 2.2 first-timers applying for each new unit. This is higher than the 1.8 in the previous exercise in November last year.

    It is also the first time since March last year that the application rate for first-timers has gone above two. The application rate then was 2.2.

    A total of 3,346 new flats in six BTO projects were offered in the sales exercise.

    The projects are in both the mature towns of Ang Mo Kio, Kallang-Whampoa and Tampines as well as in non-mature towns Choa Chu Kang, Hougang and Yishun.

    Observers said the increase in first-timer application rates could be due partly to the introduction of the new Parenthood Priority Scheme.

    Under the scheme, married couples with children under the age of 16 have priority when they apply for new flats for the first time. 30 per cent of flats are set aside for them.

    Another reason could be the de-linking of the prices of BTO flats from the resale flat market, said Chief Executive Officer of PropNex, Mohamed Ismail.

    Last week, National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan made clear that he has de-linked the prices of new flats sold by HDB from the resale flat market.

    "It becomes a value buy for anybody to pick up a unit in a mature estate...While the resale prices have moved forward, appreciated, the BTO remains affordable, (due to) as what has been announced a greater subsidy. So there's more incentive for people to pick up a unit in a mature estate," said PropNex's Mohamed Ismail.

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