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Thread: 6.9 million population a worst case scenario: Khaw *

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    Default 6.9 million population a worst case scenario: Khaw *

    http://www.straitstimes.com/the-big-...-khaw-20130201

    The projected population figure of 6.9 million by 2030 is a worst case scenario, and it is hoped that the actual figure would be much lower, said National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan on Friday.

    On his blog, he said the two papers released earlier this week - the Population White Paper and Land Use Plan - were about the quality of lives people lead here, even as the nation shifts into its next phase of development.

    "Having met basic needs, our people are rightly yearning for a better quality of life: a more meaningful life, a better work-life balance, a smarter working life with quality time for family, leisure, friends, arts and sports," he said.

    This is why the government has planned for the long term, and has anticipated challenges this way, in a bid to ensure future generations do not suffer. "That will be irresponsible, and that is not our style," he added.

    But he acknowledged that problems don't solve themselves overnight. An MRT line, for instance, takes more than 10 years to build.

    Hence the only way the government can cover all bases, is to plan for an aggressive projection of 6.9 million. "This way we will not be caught under-providing, as we are experiencing currently," he said.

    "We may never reach that figure. But as planners, we have to ensure that the infrastructure could accommodate such a figure, if need be," he said.

    The documents will be tabled to be debated in Parliament next week.
    Yee ha! Did I tickle your funny bone?


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    Default Hope we do not reach 6.9 million: Minister Khaw

    http://m.todayonline.com/singapore/h...-minister-khaw

    SINGAPORE — The Government hopes that the country does not reach the population estimate of 6.9 million by 2030, National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan said in a blog post yesterday.

    Stressing that the White Paper on population that was released on Tuesday was “not a forecast or a target”, Mr Khaw said it “simply states the assumptions going forward, based on certain set of productivity and workforce growth rates”.

    For planning purposes, however, Mr Khaw said “it is safer to take the more aggressive projection” and plan infrastructural needs accordingly. “This way we will not be caught under-providing, as we are experiencing currently,” he added.

    Reiterating that the 6.9 million figure should be viewed as “the worst-case scenario”, Mr Khaw wrote: “We hope we do not reach that figure; we may never reach that figure. But as planners, we have to ensure that the infrastructure could accommodate such a figure, if need be. Our hope is that the actual figure would turn out to be much lower.”

    Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said yesterday he fully agrees with Mr Khaw’s explanation that a 6.9 million population is not a target, but just a worst-case, aggressive scenario the Government must prepare for.

    In a Facebook post, Mr Lee said the Government needs to plan consciously and responsibly for the future, so that Singaporeans can continue to enjoy a good quality of life and that Singapore continues to thrive.

    Many Singaporeans had reacted with surprise at the population projection contained in the White Paper, with several wondering whether the country can cope with the 30-per-cent increase.

    Yesterday, three Opposition parties — the Democratic Progressive Party, the National Solidarity Party and the Reform Party — criticised the White Paper and questioned some assumptions behind the population projection.

    On Monday, Parliament will debate the Government’s White Paper and the National Development Ministry’s Land Use Plan, which details how a 6.9 million population will fit. Deputy Prime Minister Teo Chee Hean will ask the House to endorse the two papers.

    While the two papers contained “many pages, many statistics”, Mr Khaw said they are not just about numbers, but rather about striving for a “quality living environment” in Singapore’s next phase of development.

    That is why the reports are published, as the demographic challenges of a shrinking and ageing population confronting Singapore “are severe”, said Mr Khaw. “If they are not dealt with properly, our children will suffer. We cannot simply pretend they do not exist. We cannot ignore them and pass the problem to the future generation for them to deal with. That will be irresponsible, and that is not our style,” he added.

    Mr Khaw, however, noted that solutions “require long lead time to implement”. For example, an MRT line takes more than 10 years to build, he said.

    But to build infrastructure ahead of demand, the Government needs some planning assumption, and “a key assumption” is the projected population size.

    “Are you planning for five million, six million, or what? Actually, we cannot be sure. So many things can happen between now and 2030. But we still need to plan, and invest,” Mr Khaw said.
    Yee ha! Did I tickle your funny bone?


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    Yee ha! Did I tickle your funny bone?


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    Quote Originally Posted by ecimbew
    http://m.todayonline.com/singapore/h...-minister-khaw

    SINGAPORE — The Government hopes that the country does not reach the population estimate of 6.9 million by 2030, National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan said in a blog post yesterday."

    ......
    always beware of government double speak.
    KBW should have said "does not exceed the population estimate of 6.9million by 2030"
    just like dont come 200meter within polling station, inside polling station is different from 200meter within polling station .

    by his remark, population will exceed 6.9million.

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    http://mndsingapore.wordpress.com/20...-for-the-best/

    Title: Prepare for the worst, hope for the best



    So comforting

    Can someone copy and paste his blog post? I can't seem to do that on mobile. Thanks
    Last edited by ecimbew; 02-02-13 at 09:01.
    Yee ha! Did I tickle your funny bone?


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    越描越黑
    Yee ha! Did I tickle your funny bone?


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    it is very simple, PAP tries to boost productivity, if that fails, immigration ...
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    Everything is within their control. After all, they are the ones who open up the fldgates for new immigrants. If 6.9 is worst case then takein less and create best case. We don't vote in govt to create worst case.

    Singapore is already the most congested country in the world with 10.2k people per km. Today te disgusting straits times massage numbers and take away the hilly and forested land in HK and say HK is worse. Hello? HK population density only 6k per sq km. Those hilly and forested land is still land the locals can use for trekking and recreation and part of quality of life. Why should those natural areas in HK be excluded
    in computing density?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wild Falcon
    Everything is within their control. After all, they are the ones who open up the fldgates for new immigrants. If 6.9 is worst case then takein less and create best case. We don't vote in govt to create worst case.

    Singapore is already the most congested country in the world with 10.2k people per km. Today te disgusting straits times massage numbers and take away the hilly and forested land in HK and say HK is worse. Hello? HK population density only 6k per sq km. Those hilly and forested land is still land the locals can use for trekking and recreation and part of quality of life. Why should those natural areas in HK be excluded
    in computing density?
    Yah loh, HK only the city center is crowded. There are so much open space parklands in new territories and lantau lsland.

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    In 1980s, I bought a book called "Singapore Today". The long term target of the Govt has always been 8 million as stated in the book if I did not remember wrongly, for domestic demand strength and self sustainability. I always remember because every time I tell people the figure, nobody believes me.

    Don't be alarmed by 6.9 million. That had never been the target.

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    Without population Inc how to flip Ccr properties he he he
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni
    In 1980s, I bought a book called "Singapore Today". The long term target of the Govt has always been 8 million as stated in the book if I did not remember wrongly, for domestic demand strength and self sustainability. I always remember because every time I tell people the figure, nobody believes me.

    Don't be alarmed by 6.9 million. That had never been the target.
    Agree. The future of Sg is to be able to stay ahead or alongside with the likes of big cities like that of NY, London, of west. Our competition here is with HK, KL, jkt, Tokyo, Shanghai, Guangzhou. ESP for talents to bring in the Biz. There is a critical mass needed to be there. Could be minimal 7-8 mil. cities like Shanghai, Jkt have more than 12 mil people during weekday & shrinking to about 9-10 mil by weekend. That could be the numbers to look at.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni
    In 1980s, I bought a book called "Singapore Today". The long term target of the Govt has always been 8 million as stated in the book if I did not remember wrongly, for domestic demand strength and self sustainability. I always remember because every time I tell people the figure, nobody believes me.

    Don't be alarmed by 6.9 million. That had never been the target.
    do you still have the book?

    if the target population is 8million, why still have "stop at 2" in the early 80s?

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    Yee ha! Did I tickle your funny bone?


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    maybe u should have another comic. island all old people. anyone fancy living in a old folks home?

    come 2060. whole island is 1 big old folks home.

    Sure it wont be crowded.. coz all expiring.

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    Quote Originally Posted by minority
    maybe u should have another comic. island all old people. anyone fancy living in a old folks home?

    come 2060. whole island is 1 big old folks home.

    Sure it wont be crowded.. coz all expiring.
    Haha hope you have lightened up. It's a faceless forum, man. have a blessed Sunday.
    Yee ha! Did I tickle your funny bone?


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    If reach 6.9mil, my greater concern is half foreigners. A country with such a scenario would not have her own unique identity. Sigh!

    Govt should do something drastic but successful. For eg, every third and fourth child in a family will have free education and family will get an MPV from MND along with a bonus of S$180k and S$280k respectively given over next 18 years so less concern for the ever rising cost of living. Singapore population will explode in next 10 years. Target people are those already with 2 or 3 kids. If got 100k third child and 100k fourth child over next 10 years, Singapore govt only spend about 60mil over 18 years. Cheap and effective. By 2030, got additional 400k citizens automatically.

    For those with no kids, implement something else. Like that we'll reach 6.9mil without opening too many floodgates. Lol...

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    Quote Originally Posted by ysyap
    If reach 6.9mil, my greater concern is half foreigners. A country with such a scenario would not have her own unique identity. Sigh!

    Govt should do something drastic but successful. For eg, every third and fourth child in a family will have free education and family will get an MPV from MND along with a bonus of S$180k and S$280k respectively given over next 18 years so less concern for the ever rising cost of living. Singapore population will explode in next 10 years. Target people are those already with 2 or 3 kids. If got 100k third child and 100k fourth child over next 10 years, Singapore govt only spend about 60mil over 18 years. Cheap and effective. By 2030, got additional 400k citizens automatically.

    For those with no kids, implement something else. Like that we'll reach 6.9mil without opening too many floodgates. Lol...
    sorry, wont be acceptable. in time, minority will become majority.

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    Quote Originally Posted by azeoprop
    Yah loh, HK only the city center is crowded. There are so much open space parklands in new territories and lantau lsland.
    u can go kusu island or ubin also.

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    "The Government hopes that the country does not reach the population estimate of 6.9 million by 2030, National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan said in a blog post yesterday."

    he never say that they will not reach 6.9m by 2031? or 6.8m by 2030? aiya... anything is up to them to say. if it was really meant to be an overprojection, they should have SAID SO in the initial press release, not wait for reactions before coming up with excuse. they just trying to pacify us after the outlash.

    when the time comes, they can say all they like. GE2016, 2021, 2026 already gone by. chill guys. nothing much we can do. just work hard, invest hard and enjoy the fruits of our labour when that time comes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hopeful
    sorry, wont be acceptable. in time, minority will become majority.
    You mean the forummer minority?

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    Quote Originally Posted by ecimbew
    Haha hope you have lightened up. It's a faceless forum, man. have a blessed Sunday.

    U2 have a good 1!

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    Quote Originally Posted by ysyap
    If reach 6.9mil, my greater concern is half foreigners. A country with such a scenario would not have her own unique identity. Sigh!

    Govt should do something drastic but successful. For eg, every third and fourth child in a family will have free education and family will get an MPV from MND along with a bonus of S$180k and S$280k respectively given over next 18 years so less concern for the ever rising cost of living. Singapore population will explode in next 10 years. Target people are those already with 2 or 3 kids. If got 100k third child and 100k fourth child over next 10 years, Singapore govt only spend about 60mil over 18 years. Cheap and effective. By 2030, got additional 400k citizens automatically.

    For those with no kids, implement something else. Like that we'll reach 6.9mil without opening too many floodgates. Lol...
    Nope won't work it's not abt $$ it's lifestyle. N the life style do not include kids.


    I guess u forgot we are all decendents of immigrants ? If that's the case we are all foreigners . The real locals are the indeginous malays then!

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    Currently, the land size of Singapore is 714 sq km. In 2030, the size of Singapore should increase to 766 sq km. Assuming that land reclaimation will continue after 2030, the size of Singapore should exceed 800 sq km by 2050 or earlier.

    Currently, the population of Singapore is 5.3 million. By 2030, the population should reach 7 million. After 2030 I am sure the PAP government will want to increase it to 10 or even 12 million.

    Assuming the plot ratio of all HDB land will be increased from the current 2.8 to 4.3, Singapore should be able to add more than 550000 new homes by redevelopment of existing HDB flats through SERS.

    KBW also mentioned that some Singaporeans can stay and work in underground homes. Can Singapore accommodate more than 10 million people? What is the ideal population size for Singapore?

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    Quote Originally Posted by minority
    Nope won't work it's not abt $$ it's lifestyle. N the life style do not include kids.


    I guess u forgot we are all decendents of immigrants ? If that's the case we are all foreigners . The real locals are the indeginous malays then!
    Yup.... what makes you think I'm not the descendent of the malays then.. Lol.. well, a recent survey did suggest that many young couples want kids. Anyway, I'm not referring to lifestyles with or without kids. Its one of those carrots that govt likes throwing out periodically. I'm referring to the need for govt to do something drastic. You won't know it won't work till you've tried it.
    Last edited by ysyap; 04-02-13 at 06:00.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ysyap
    You mean the forummer minority?
    given such incentives, a particular minority race will become majority race.
    even at their current (and lower) economic levels, the minority race are already outproducing the majority race. if given the same incentives to reproduce as the majority race, their fertility rate would even be much higher.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hopeful
    given such incentives, a particular minority race will become majority race.
    even at their current (and lower) economic levels, the minority race are already outproducing the majority race. if given the same incentives to reproduce as the majority race, their fertility rate would even be much higher.
    yes, in indo, the chinese community is shrinking. there are a lot of inter racial marriages.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hopeful
    given such incentives, a particular minority race will become majority race.
    even at their current (and lower) economic levels, the minority race are already outproducing the majority race. if given the same incentives to reproduce as the majority race, their fertility rate would even be much higher.
    tat is why certain measures like income tax rebates will favour the higher income vs the lower income.

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    aiyo ah khaw said is worst case scenario mah. if all plan goes well by 2030 for 6.9m but the target population not achieved. isnt it nice to have a 6.9m space with only maybe 6m population....

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    Quote Originally Posted by ay123
    aiyo ah khaw said is worst case scenario mah. if all plan goes well by 2030 for 6.9m but the target population not achieved. isnt it nice to have a 6.9m space with only maybe 6m population....
    the thing is, nobody has mentioned what is best case scenario.
    if KBW mentioned 6.5m is best case, and realised only 6.2m, the result is "better than best" scenario or "worse" scenario?

    if infrastructure 6.9m and population only 6m, who is going to pay for the additional infrastructure?

    and if 700k homes built, only 500k occupied or rented, disaster.

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