Land set aside to build 700,000 more homes by 2030

[dtrax]

Source: http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking...-2030-20130129

Singapore's planners have set aside land for 700,000 more homes to be built by 2030, in anticipation of a 6.9 million population by then.

The National Population and Talent Division said on Tuesday that the government has done its long-term planning to accommodate the bigger population.

The rail network is set to double to 360km, and new towns will be developed even while more green spaces are built.

In the nearer term, it is ramping up infrastructure developments to support a population of 5.8 million to 6 million in 2020, while also tackling the infrastructure bottlenecks



Some steps it has taken include adding 800 new buses over the next five years, building 110,000 more public housing units and 90,000 private homes by 2016, and adding 4,100 new hospital beds by 2020.

The government will continue to explore new technologies and innovative solutions to optimise Singapore's land use beyond 2030, said the NPTD.

It released these figures in its White Paper on Tuesday, which sets out Singapore's population and immigration policies for the future.

More details on Singapore's land use planning is set to be released later this week.

[cnud]

http://202.157.171.46/whitepaper/dow...hite-paper.pdf

6m by 2020.
7m by 2030.

Huat ah!

[Inn0cent]

I think we can expect all property prices to go up again.

[cnud]

Properties counters chionging now.

[cnud]

Master Plan 2013 akan datang.

[economist]

Govt has deliberately put the number below 7mil at 2030, but bulls will just grab anything they can grab to talk up the price.

6.5-6.9m by year 2030, the pace of increase of population per year is far fewer than the upcoming supply per year, at least in the next few years.

See previous thread:
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=16591

And with ABSD of CM7, the price pressure is apparently on the downside.

I know bulls with vested interest will debate or even attack, but, please face the numbers and face the downside.

[Shanhz]

Govt has deliberately put the number below 7mil at 2030, but bulls will just grab anything they can grab to talk up the price.

6.5-6.9m by year 2030, the pace of increase of population per year is far fewer than the upcoming supply per year, at least in the next few years.

See previous thread:
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=16591

And with ABSD of CM7, the price pressure is apparently on the downside.

I know bulls with vested interest will debate or even attack, but, please face the numbers and face the downside.

the upcoming supply.. how much of it is to supply the current under-supply, or to meet new demand?

i not bull.. just an innocent question.

"Writing on his blog, Mr Khaw added that by 2016, some 200,000 housing units would have come on-stream: 80,000 private properties, 10,000 Executive Condominium units and about 110,000 public housing units."

can assume EC and BTO are already booked by existing demand. 80k condos... dunno how much is existing demand, how much over supply. plus the double count on those who will sell after upgrading.

[Laguna]

700,000 homes for 17 years, = 54,000 units per year
100,000 in take a year, say family size of 2 = 50,000 homes...

[economist]

Not every booked unit is pent-up demand.

An easier way is to look at total house stock vs total population, and it is easy to see the the ratio is increasing in the next few years, the increase of house stock will be much more than increase of population in the next few years, and it is a big negative to the housing market.

btw, one cannot use 2 as the family size to derive the units vs population. Please refer to my previous post:
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=16591

[economist]

Btw, 6.5 to 6.9m by 2030 is a surprisingly low figure. DBS has used 7m by 2030 in their previous research report, and even with 7m, DBS acknowledge the near term price pressure, and it predicts price fall of 5% in 2013.

[hopeful]

why can't they plan housing supply until 2020, or 2030?
why housing figures until 2016 only?

[teddybear]

Bulls will always have bull-shit reasons.
Bears will always have bear-shit reasons.

The person who coined the term "bull-shit" must be a great bear!

There is no need to argue with Mr Market, he will determine the answer regardless of whatever bull-shit and bear-shit you all argue here!

Not every booked unit is pent-up demand.

An easier way is to look at total house stock vs total population, and it is easy to see the the ratio is increasing in the next few years, the increase of house stock will be much more than increase of population in the next few years, and it is a big negative to the housing market.

btw, one cannot use 2 as the family size to derive the units vs population. Please refer to my previous post:
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=16591

[hyenergix]

Source: http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking...-2030-20130129

Singapore's planners have set aside land for 700,000 more homes to be built by 2030, in anticipation of a 6.9 million population by then.

The National Population and Talent Division said on Tuesday that the government has done its long-term planning to accommodate the bigger population.

The rail network is set to double to 360km, and new towns will be developed even while more green spaces are built.

In the nearer term, it is ramping up infrastructure developments to support a population of 5.8 million to 6 million in 2020, while also tackling the infrastructure bottlenecks



Some steps it has taken include adding 800 new buses over the next five years, building 110,000 more public housing units and 90,000 private homes by 2016, and adding 4,100 new hospital beds by 2020.

The government will continue to explore new technologies and innovative solutions to optimise Singapore's land use beyond 2030, said the NPTD.

It released these figures in its White Paper on Tuesday, which sets out Singapore's population and immigration policies for the future.

More details on Singapore's land use planning is set to be released later this week.

I doubt the projected figures are realistic. It will mean about 1.6% growth in pop annually. Our average for the past 20 years was about 2.5%. Someone could be playing down the numbers.

[Laguna]

I doubt the projected figures are realistic. It will mean about 1.6% growth in pop annually. Our average for the past 20 years was about 2.5%. Someone could be playing down the numbers.

Definitely, the number has been played down due to the BE.

With the ageing population, we need to have a bigger intake for replacement as well

[eng81157]

Govt has deliberately put the number below 7mil at 2030, but bulls will just grab anything they can grab to talk up the price.

6.5-6.9m by year 2030, the pace of increase of population per year is far fewer than the upcoming supply per year, at least in the next few years.

See previous thread:
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=16591

And with ABSD of CM7, the price pressure is apparently on the downside.

I know bulls with vested interest will debate or even attack, but, please face the numbers and face the downside.

oh please, i've already rubbished your calculations, using mere mathematics. the rate of building is only for 3 years, and you are assuming that it will be constant till 2030

LEARN-2-STATS 101

[cnud]

How about the catching up effect due to past under supply?

[eng81157]

why can't they plan housing supply until 2020, or 2030?
why housing figures until 2016 only?

are u even sure PAP will be in power by 2016?

[jeaprp]

why can't they plan housing supply until 2020, or 2030?
why housing figures until 2016 only?

GE 2016, isn't it obvious.
hopefully price soften by then.

[economist]

Another simple way of looking at it, is to look at the growth rate of population.

The surprisingly low 6.5-6.9m population target at 2030, implies an annual compound growth rate of less than 1.2%~1.5% (note, one should use annual compound rate), this compares to population growth of 2.4% in the last three years.

So, it is really a negative number. Government is now very cautious.

[minority]

700,000 homes for 17 years, = 54,000 units per year
100,000 in take a year, say family size of 2 = 50,000 homes...

Intake is 25K new Citizen and 30K PR. /2 u are looking at 25K homes. for this group.

u have 100% suplus on plan.

[Laguna]

Intake is 25K new Citizen and 30K PR. /2 u are looking at 25K homes. for this group.

u have 100% suplus on plan.

IT depends on the number. Most of them bring in their families, so I take a number of 2 per household.....

[economist]

btw, some posts will get ignored like those from eng81157, due to their illogical way of reasoning, and uncivilized wordings, so save your effort, this shall be the last time your name is even mentioned in my post. Period.

[teddybear]

Yah lor, but they need to ensure majority is happy first after ramping up public transport and give more goodies first wah. After citizens are happy that population increase give them better paying job, more investment profits, govt willing to spend more on public transport and infrastructure and more benefits like child-care grants etc to make Singapore swiss-standard-of-living (and not swiss-cost-of-living only), they may update you in 2020 that population will be projected to 9m in 2030 instead!

By then, almost all of us (except a very small minority) will be very happy to welcome more, and we will ask for 12m in 2050 so that Singapore achieve "Heaven-standard-of-living" (even better than swiss-standard-of-living)!

Btw, 6.5 to 6.9m by 2030 is a surprisingly low figure. DBS has used 7m by 2030 in their previous research report, and even with 7m, DBS acknowledge the near term price pressure, and it predicts price fall of 5% in 2013.

[hyenergix]

Another simple way of looking at it, is to look at the growth rate of population.

The surprisingly low 6.5-6.9m population target at 2030, implies an annual compound growth rate of less than 1.2%~1.5% (note, one should use annual compound rate), this compares to population growth of 2.4% in the last three years.

So, it is really a negative number. Government is now very cautious.

The 1.6% growth rate (base on the version I use) would have been close to the resident's growth rate for the past 20 years. It means that we are not allowing additional immigrant workers from this year onwards. This is simply not realistic. I have a lot of doubts about the whole exercise. It seems that there is a lot of confusion that is not resolved.

http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/the...hist/popn.html

[leesg123]

Btw, 6.5 to 6.9m by 2030 is a surprisingly low figure. DBS has used 7m by 2030 in their previous research report, and even with 7m, DBS acknowledge the near term price pressure, and it predicts price fall of 5% in 2013.

And how does it matter to u?

[Laguna]

[hyenergix]

Haha very interesting design. I tot there might be handrails outside the train for people to hang on.

[eng81157]

btw, some posts will get ignored like those from eng81157, due to their illogical way of reasoning, and uncivilized wordings, so save your effort, this shall be the last time your name is even mentioned in my post. Period.

WHAHAHAH!! illogical reasoning?! from someone who can't do simple statistics.

you took an average for housing construction numbers between 2013 to 2016, and multiplied forward till 2030.

this is fundamental stats : is the rate of construction remaining constant till 2030?!

if not, your claim of oversupply is rubbish.

[ichigo55]

this pict is really cool .. how you wish you can have this type of mrt now right?

Now to have a simplistic look why we are in undersupply right now ...

With some estimation from some publicly available figures
5.31m population / 1.2m total dwellings = 4.425
Any ratio betw 3.9 and 4.2 we are ok ... when we go below 3.9, we are oversupply. So at the moment we are still undersupply I suppose.

So with 200k supplies upcoming,
5.31 / 1.4 = 3.79 -> alas oversupply ...

so to keep this minimally within healthy range
3.9 * 1.4 = 5.46m population -> an undemanding 150k influx for the 3 years.

The white paper certainly proves that we cannot stop this bleeding ...

[DuaNehNehChioBu]

Properties counters chionging now.

Hope Property prices will CRASH Down the drain like there is no tomorrow.

Whatever prices goes up, must come DOWN