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Thread: Let's Make calls for Year 2013

  1. #1
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    Default Let's Make calls for Year 2013

    First Day of 2013, let's make some calls for the year

    1. Interest Rate for the year (SIBOR)
    2. STI as at 31 Dec 2013
    3. Inflation for the year
    4. Ave COE for cat A and B, ie ave of 24 biddings
    5. Private Property Price Index up or down for the year and how many %
    6. HDB Resale Price Index, up or down for the year and how many %
    7. GDP growth for the year

    Closing date for all the calls 28 Feb 2013
    We will revisit this thread on 31 Dec 2013
    and the one with the best call will get a gift voucher of $300 from me in a prize presentation ceremony attended by all forummers.

  2. #2
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    Ccr -2% - 5% (correction)
    rcr - +1% - 3%
    Ocr - +2% - 4%
    hdb - more record breaking price

    Coe - dont knw


    Khaw will do.cm on ec
    Sti 2900 ish by march

    Interest rate remain range bound

  3. #3
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    and

    8. laguna's health improve by 10-15% after revise his lifestyle?
    I took the road less traveled by, and that has made all the difference.” - Robert Frost quotes (American poet, 1874-1963)

  4. #4
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    1. Interest Rate for the year (SIBOR) - 0.8%
    2. STI as at 31 Dec 2013 - 3100
    3. Inflation for the year up 3%
    4. Ave COE for cat A and B, ie ave of 24 biddings -avg 90K
    5. Private Property Price Index up or down for the year and how many % - up by 0.5%
    6. HDB Resale Price Index, up or down for the year and how many % up by 1%
    7. GDP growth for the year +2%

  5. #5
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    My call :

    1. Interest Rate for the year (SIBOR): Assuming that its for 12 month SIBOR rate - 0.58%; if its for 3 month SIBOR rate - 0.33%.

    2. STI as at 31 Dec 2013: 3380.

    3. Inflation for the year up: 2.5%.

    4. Ave COE for cat A and B, ie ave of 24 biddings: Average of $85,000.

    5. Private Property Price Index up or down for the year and how many %:
    Up by 1.25%.

    6. HDB Resale Price Index, up or down for the year and how many %: Up by 1.5%.

    7. GDP growth for the year: Up by 2.5%.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Laguna
    First Day of 2013, let's make some calls for the year

    1. Interest Rate for the year (SIBOR)
    2. STI as at 31 Dec 2013
    3. Inflation for the year
    4. Ave COE for cat A and B, ie ave of 24 biddings
    5. Private Property Price Index up or down for the year and how many %
    6. HDB Resale Price Index, up or down for the year and how many %
    7. GDP growth for the year

    Closing date for all the calls 28 Feb 2013
    We will revisit this thread on 31 Dec 2013
    and the one with the best call will get a gift voucher of $300 from me in a prize presentation ceremony attended by all forummers.
    This will be fun.

    Interest rates will have one 25basis point hike before the year is over.
    STI up 10-15%
    Headline inflation up 4.8%
    Average COE price $110k for Cat B, $95k for Cat A.
    PPI up 10-15%
    HDB resale up 10-15%
    GDP up 3% (but who cares about this figure anyway. Haha)

  7. #7
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    Assume 1m investment, what portfolio and let see who scores at end of year
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  8. #8
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    Post deleted
    Last edited by Laguna; 01-01-13 at 14:27.

  9. #9
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    Also must be explain th risk and investment objective, max 5y horizon, return calculated per year, no need cash buffer
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    Also must be explain th risk and investment objective, max 5y horizon, return calculated per year, no need cash buffer
    watching show now
    will think over it and start a separate thread later
    more suggestions pl

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Laguna
    Post deleted
    Oh...I was intended to ask if there is any reward if I hit the jackpot.

  12. #12
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    My example

    Real compound return above inflation or GDP growth rate whichever is higher of 6% with capital loss no more than 15% in 5y time

    So if inflation 4% GDP growth 3%, nominal return will be 10% compound per year

    This is how temasek gic works.
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  13. #13
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    I would bet on commercial storage unit in anticipation of e-commerce.

  14. #14
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    sorry to hijack the thread ... please do continue to make your own prediction. My key point is predicting is one thing, execution is another. One can predict can just lucky, but consistent performance over the years can never be because of luck.

    I quote example, Temasek TSR % (total shareholder return), even if you don't understand what is TSR you can see it is getting more difficult to generate decent returns

    Ride at your own risk !!!

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by indomie
    I would bet on commercial storage unit in anticipation of e-commerce.
    care to tell me more about commerical storage unit for?




    because my biz deal with e-commerce


    maybe the commercial storage unit is for big company that sell alot of physical stuffs..
    I took the road less traveled by, and that has made all the difference.” - Robert Frost quotes (American poet, 1874-1963)

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    sorry to hijack the thread ... please do continue to make your own prediction. My key point is predicting is one thing, execution is another. One can predict can just lucky, but consistent performance over the years can never be because of luck.

    I quote example, Temasek TSR % (total shareholder return), even if you don't understand what is TSR you can see it is getting more difficult to generate decent returns

    from another angle;

    GIC said its 20-year return was 6.8 percent (nominal) in USD terms

    The annualized rolling 20-year real rate of return, which takes into account inflation, was 3.9 percent

    The bigger you are the harder it is

    URA PPI index last 20y if include rental yield, should roughly return 7% pa too

    So in next 20y... what do u think? Did u see the Hard Truth
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  17. #17
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    ok lah bro BJ style ... the hard truth is: you better pray GIC/Temasek has > 10% return in next 20y

    as SG population ages ... more and more government budget needs to be funded by return from GIC/Temasek ... less and less will be allocated for growth

    no growth no property price increase be very worried that Temasek TSR in last 5y is only 3% vs TSR of 10% last 10y

    now you understand why MM Lee said Singaporeans are DAFT

    Ride at your own risk !!!

  18. #18
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    now ... finally I will reveal the rule 1 of the phantom of the opera:

    long term property market return in Singapore cannot outperform Temasek TSR within the same period unless you are even better than Temasek, if so, IRAS will invite you to drink kopi to ensure you contribute back to Temasek

    Ride at your own risk !!!

  19. #19
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    One of the Taiwanese stock guru said that he cant predicts what will be the performance of the stock mkt as the financial world mkt is getting too complex. But he wants all investors to know there is this BILDERBERG organsation , the world biggest manipulator in stock mkt , FX etc. He keeps repeating BILDERBERG BILDERBERG to warns investors what this organisation is capable of doing that will bring financial disaster to us.

    These people (organisation) are always in the shadow making decisions which affect us all, the rich get richer and everyone else suffers.

    It warns that the Bilderberg is fostering a false sense of recovery of the economy, suckering investors to plunge back into the stock market to only unleash another massive downturn which will create “massive losses and searing financial pain

    These groups wants one language, one regilion, and one currency like the euro in europe and reduce the population from 8 billion to 4.5 billion.


    For those potential marginal property investors, you need to be very careful if you want to follow the HERD to buy a property NOW to hedge against inflation. You are buying at so call a "HIGH FLOOR" price or "HIGH PE stock" price.

    For those who are 1st time buyer. It is every SINGAPORE birth RIGHT to buy a subsidised BTO or new EC which is 30% to 40% cheaper than a resale. Unless you earn > 12k/mth.

    Quiet a few D16 property investors who bought in 1997 & 1999 managed to breakeven after holding for 12 to 15 yrs. It has not include the property tax , maintenace fee , mortgage loan interest , renovation , repairing etc which you paid for the last 12 to 15 yrs. In fact U are losing money.

    Patience is a virtue & If you can manage your emotional well. Buy big blue chip (dividend stk) when there is extreme fear. You can be a winner against inflation. EVery year, there are one to two big correction. Every few years, there will be big CRASH in stock mkt. You will be rewarded if U are patience enough to wait mths or years.

    rdgs,
    Vic

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584

    For those potential marginal property investors, you need to be very careful if you want to follow the HERD to buy a property NOW to hedge against inflation. You are buying at so call a "HIGH FLOOR" price or "HIGH PE stock" price.

    For those who are 1st time buyer. It is every SINGAPORE birth RIGHT to buy a subsidised BTO or new EC which is 30% to 40% cheaper than a resale. Unless you earn > 12k/mth.

    Patience is a virtue & If you can manage your emotional well. Every few years, there will be big CRASH in stock mkt. You will be rewarded if U are patience enough to wait mths or years.

    rdgs,
    Vic
    I agree and am putting words into action. Not buying any property in 2013 and am slowly liquidating my stocks. Selling stocks very very slowly, starting from today.
    I am just a layman, using my gut feel in personal investment.

  21. #21
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    the best move is.....

    "do nothing"
    HAHAHAHA
    I took the road less traveled by, and that has made all the difference.” - Robert Frost quotes (American poet, 1874-1963)

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    now ... finally I will reveal the rule 1 of the phantom of the opera:

    long term property market return in Singapore cannot outperform Temasek TSR within the same period unless you are even better than Temasek, if so, IRAS will invite you to drink kopi to ensure you contribute back to Temasek

    I'm happy to note that I perform better than Temasek, since I lim'ed kopi with IRAS. ;-)

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584
    One of the Taiwanese stock guru said that he cant predicts what will be the performance of the stock mkt as the financial world mkt is getting too complex. But he wants all investors to know there is this BILDERBERG organsation , the world biggest manipulator in stock mkt , FX etc. He keeps repeating BILDERBERG BILDERBERG to warns investors what this organisation is capable of doing that will bring financial disaster to us.

    These people (organisation) are always in the shadow making decisions which affect us all, the rich get richer and everyone else suffers.

    It warns that the Bilderberg is fostering a false sense of recovery of the economy, suckering investors to plunge back into the stock market to only unleash another massive downturn which will create “massive losses and searing financial pain

    These groups wants one language, one regilion, and one currency like the euro in europe and reduce the population from 8 billion to 4.5 billion.


    For those potential marginal property investors, you need to be very careful if you want to follow the HERD to buy a property NOW to hedge against inflation. You are buying at so call a "HIGH FLOOR" price or "HIGH PE stock" price.

    For those who are 1st time buyer. It is every SINGAPORE birth RIGHT to buy a subsidised BTO or new EC which is 30% to 40% cheaper than a resale. Unless you earn > 12k/mth.

    Quiet a few D16 property investors who bought in 1997 & 1999 managed to breakeven after holding for 12 to 15 yrs. It has not include the property tax , maintenace fee , mortgage loan interest , renovation , repairing etc which you paid for the last 12 to 15 yrs. In fact U are losing money.

    Patience is a virtue & If you can manage your emotional well. Buy big blue chip (dividend stk) when there is extreme fear. You can be a winner against inflation. EVery year, there are one to two big correction. Every few years, there will be big CRASH in stock mkt. You will be rewarded if U are patience enough to wait mths or years.

    rdgs,
    Vic
    Hi Vic

    Thanks for the timely reminder.

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