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Thread: Talk of recovery of high end market is it bull?

  1. #1
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    Default Talk of recovery of high end market is it bull?

    Sold at loss of $800psf or 21%!!!





    Wachovia's $55m loss on Grange Road project highlights weak market. -ST
    Dennis Chan

    Thu, Dec 27, 2012
    The Straits Times
    SINGAPORE - United States financial services group Wachovia has sold its investment in City Developments' (CDL's) freehold Grange Road project at a hefty loss.
    The sale, which is likely to cost Wachovia a loss of $55 million, underscores the continuing weakness in the high-end residential property market, despite hopeful talk of a recovery next year.
    It is also a sign that Wachovia does not believe it can recoup its investment in Cliveden at Grange in the short to mid-term, after making a big bet on the property at the height of the high-end rally five years ago.
    Wachovia teamed up with CDL in November 2007 to acquire 44 Cliveden homes for $432.4 million. Under the deal, which worked out to an average price of $3,750 per sq ft (psf), Wachovia's real estate arm, Wachovia Development, took a 60 per cent stake in the joint-venture company, Grange 100.
    Grange 100 is the vehicle which owns the 44 units - a mix of three- and four-bedroom apartments and penthouses in two of the four towers at Cliveden.
    Based on its equity share, a back of the envelope calculation puts Wachovia's investment at $259.4 million. In selling its 60 per cent stake in Grange 100 to CDL for $204.5 million, the average price works out to $2,956 psf.
    That is a drop of 21.2 per cent from the price it paid in 2007.
    Analysts reckon the size of this sale at such a steep price drop will have an adverse impact on the Urban Redevelopment Authority's (URA's) private home price index, particularly the sub-index for the central core region.
    Wachovia's actual loss may vary as the $204.5 million price tag includes advances it had extended to Grange 100.
    CDL said in a statement that, in acquiring Wachovia's stake, it has taken a medium- to long- term view of Cliveden and has confidence in the project.
    "The consideration was arrived at on a willing buyer, willing seller basis, taking into account the net asset value attributable to the Wachovia shares based on, inter alia, the financial statements of Grange 100 and outstanding shareholder loans," it said.
    A search with the Accounting and Corporate Regulatory Authority shows that Grange 100 has accumulated losses of $121.8 million as of 2011, since it was set up in 2008.
    The last time Cliveden saw any transaction, based on caveats lodged, was in April 2008, when a 2,842 sq ft unit was sold for $11.1 million, or $3,914 psf.
    The 110-unit Cliveden was completed last year. URA data shows that the condominium is 80 per cent sold, at prices ranging from $3,265 psf to $4,313 psf.

  2. #2
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    I just come back from hawker center at my west coast area (OCR). A lot more ang mo. Def more r moving away from renting in CCR. Rental could b not strong enuff to support e luxury condos in CCR. By e way chicken rice there is $3 vv $2.50 a few months ago. What an inflation.

  3. #3
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    why not hold onto the property?

    or no one renting their property at all?
    I took the road less traveled by, and that has made all the difference.” - Robert Frost quotes (American poet, 1874-1963)

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    Or does it mean more of different levels of Angmo coming into singapore as immigration gate is still open?
    Quote Originally Posted by hyenergix
    I just come back from hawker center at my west coast area (OCR). A lot more ang mo. Def more r moving away from renting in CCR. Rental could b not strong enuff to support e luxury condos in CCR. By e way chicken rice there is $3 vv $2.50 a few months ago. What an inflation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008
    Or does it mean more of different levels of Angmo coming into singapore as immigration gate is still open?
    I'm not too sure. Housing budget might have been cut too. These ang mo seem to b v comfortable in e hawker center n west coast plaza. I think e trend of rental decentralising has started. This cld imply sustained or better rental for big family units there.

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    They could be from the NUS staff accommodation at Kent Vale. They have just completed another two more tower blocks.
    Quote Originally Posted by hyenergix
    I'm not too sure. Housing budget might have been cut too. These ang mo seem to b v comfortable in e hawker center n west coast plaza. I think e trend of rental decentralising has started. This cld imply sustained or better rental for big family units there.

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    High end rental cannot sustain one. In fact, already dropping based on URA data. City area rental now on a high side of 3k only. Suburban on the low side of 3k. But prices are double at CCR vs OCR. If rental is dropping, it is a big risk because at current interest rate & 30 years loan, you won't even have spare cash. If interest rate goes up, you are screwed. And if rental continues to drop, you are screwed x 2. Don't forget Altez, Skysuite, MBS, 76 Shenton all going to TOP soon. And Eon, V on shenton, the freehold robinson road condo (can't remember the name) all coming on board in the next 2-3 years. Just in CBD alone, we will see more than double the units in the next 3 years. It is going to be tough business for rental.

    Btw, I only compare those studios near MRT, within 5 mins walk.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008
    They could be from the NUS staff accommodation at Kent Vale. They have just completed another two more tower blocks.
    Maybe. It is a bit odd for me to c such a number bcoz west coast near e plaza had prev been a low income area.

    This is good news for rental there bcoz expats like to hang out among themselves. Likely to have more expats there in future.

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    3 bedder 2153 sq ft asking 9.5k. a similar unit is asking for 6.7m (3100psf) and claiming to be 10% off purchase price. piece the 2 info together, u get 1.7% yield.

    Quote Originally Posted by roly8
    why not hold onto the property?

    or no one renting their property at all?

  10. #10
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    URA website shows that a similar unit was rented out at 9k in nov 12. so wachovia's sale price is at a 1.7% yield.

    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    3 bedder 2153 sq ft asking 9.5k. a similar unit is asking for 6.7m (3100psf) and claiming to be 10% off purchase price. piece the 2 info together, u get 1.7% yield.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thomastansb
    High end rental cannot sustain one. In fact, already dropping based on URA data. City area rental now on a high side of 3k only. Suburban on the low side of 3k. But prices are double at CCR vs OCR. If rental is dropping, it is a big risk because at current interest rate & 30 years loan, you won't even have spare cash. If interest rate goes up, you are screwed. And if rental continues to drop, you are screwed x 2. Don't forget Altez, Skysuite, MBS, 76 Shenton all going to TOP soon. And Eon, V on shenton, the freehold robinson road condo (can't remember the name) all coming on board in the next 2-3 years. Just in CBD alone, we will see more than double the units in the next 3 years. It is going to be tough business for rental.

    Btw, I only compare those studios near MRT, within 5 mins walk.
    finally, somebody is speaking the truth about CCR, what CCR needs is a full recovery in G7 ... if not because tight supply in HDB pushing up OCR ... CCR price would have crashed
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by thomastansb
    High end rental cannot sustain one. In fact, already dropping based on URA data. City area rental now on a high side of 3k only. Suburban on the low side of 3k. But prices are double at CCR vs OCR. If rental is dropping, it is a big risk because at current interest rate & 30 years loan, you won't even have spare cash. If interest rate goes up, you are screwed. And if rental continues to drop, you are screwed x 2. Don't forget Altez, Skysuite, MBS, 76 Shenton all going to TOP soon. And Eon, V on shenton, the freehold robinson road condo (can't remember the name) all coming on board in the next 2-3 years. Just in CBD alone, we will see more than double the units in the next 3 years. It is going to be tough business for rental.

    Btw, I only compare those studios near MRT, within 5 mins walk.
    the one with the most effective marketing WIN!
    I took the road less traveled by, and that has made all the difference.” - Robert Frost quotes (American poet, 1874-1963)

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    When D Leedon TOP, it will be a real challenge for rental

    Again .. rich ppl may just leave it empty, same as buy gold mah
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    When D Leedon TOP, it will be a real challenge for rental

    Again .. rich ppl may just leave it empty, same as buy gold mah
    hold gold, don't need to pay maintenance fee.
    keep in safe at home, can already..
    I took the road less traveled by, and that has made all the difference.” - Robert Frost quotes (American poet, 1874-1963)

  15. #15
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    The truth is out there actually. All in URA. I can't lie or bullshit also. Even though I have CCR units, it is a fact the rental is softening. 4k for Icon is norm but 3.8 or 3.9k can close also. For those committing > 1.3M for a studio and you need rental to sustain, then you are screwed if rental continues to go down (high chance if you ask me) and interest rate goes up (after 2014).

    And CCR won't hit full recovery. We have a massive supply coming in 2013/2014. Demand? Not sure. But the massive supply is a known thing for sure. It is all in the news so these information is readily available.

    And of course, there is a thing call property/economical cycle. I am very sure we are near the peak.



    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    finally, somebody is speaking the truth about CCR, what CCR needs is a full recovery in G7 ... if not because tight supply in HDB pushing up OCR ... CCR price would have crashed

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    Quote Originally Posted by thomastansb
    The truth is out there actually. All in URA. I can't lie or bullshit also. Even though I have CCR units, it is a fact the rental is softening. 4k for Icon is norm but 3.8 or 3.9k can close also. For those committing > 1.3M for a studio and you need rental to sustain, then you are screwed if rental continues to go down (high chance if you ask me) and interest rate goes up (after 2014).

    And CCR won't hit full recovery. We have a massive supply coming in 2013/2014. Demand? Not sure. But the massive supply is a known thing for sure. It is all in the news so these information is readily available.

    And of course, there is a thing call property/economical cycle. I am very sure we are near the peak.
    thank you bro for sharing ... IMO garmen made a mistake in 10% ABSD ... it does not have any cooling effect on OCR but hit CCR hard .. of course now exclude those with FTAs ...just keep signing FTAs to silently reverse the policy??
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by roly8
    hold gold, don't need to pay maintenance fee.
    keep in safe at home, can already..
    Also have to pay pty tax every year

  18. #18
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    OCR are the worst. People go buy OCR instead.

    Like Optima. Last transacted 755k. Rent out 3.2k
    Citylights last transacted 1.05M. Rent out 3.6k
    Sail last transacted 1.38M. Rent out 4k

    Investors not dumb.



    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    thank you bro for sharing ... IMO garmen made a mistake in 10% ABSD ... it does not have any cooling effect on OCR but hit CCR hard .. of course now exclude those with FTAs ...just keep signing FTAs to silently reverse the policy??

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    There will be more with the completion of vision, etc.
    Quote Originally Posted by hyenergix
    Maybe. It is a bit odd for me to c such a number bcoz west coast near e plaza had prev been a low income area.

    This is good news for rental there bcoz expats like to hang out among themselves. Likely to have more expats there in future.

  20. #20
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    It really depends when and where you bought the CCR unit.
    Quote Originally Posted by thomastansb
    The truth is out there actually. All in URA. I can't lie or bullshit also. Even though I have CCR units, it is a fact the rental is softening. 4k for Icon is norm but 3.8 or 3.9k can close also. For those committing > 1.3M for a studio and you need rental to sustain, then you are screwed if rental continues to go down (high chance if you ask me) and interest rate goes up (after 2014).

    And CCR won't hit full recovery. We have a massive supply coming in 2013/2014. Demand? Not sure. But the massive supply is a known thing for sure. It is all in the news so these information is readily available.

    And of course, there is a thing call property/economical cycle. I am very sure we are near the peak.

  21. #21
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    Talking

    for the case of wachovia.. its a case of wrong entry price and timing lah.. they probably did not do proper due dilligence.. someone inside the company made a grave grave judgement.. think of SH selling at 1800psf (for small units) and Bishan 8 condominium..

    but other than that cliveden is actually a very very nice condominium. Given the right kind of marketing and management, i may even rate it as highly as the marq / rivergate.

    Do not be too afraid of bad news.. there is always a silver lining for the shrewd investor.

  22. #22
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    Something is not right in CCR.

    My friend has a unit in Cosmo, opp great world, vacant for 4 month, no offer, asking $8k +. He told me used to go very quickly but this time since tenant vacated, cannot rent.. Kind of worry now cos every month need to pay cash for mortgage.

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    Tenants' comfort rental range is between $4-5k these days.
    Quote Originally Posted by Werther
    Something is not right in CCR.

    My friend has a unit in Cosmo, opp great world, vacant for 4 month, no offer, asking $8k +. He told me used to go very quickly but this time since tenant vacated, cannot rent.. Kind of worry now cos every month need to pay cash for mortgage.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Werther
    Something is not right in CCR.

    My friend has a unit in Cosmo, opp great world, vacant for 4 month, no offer, asking $8k +. He told me used to go very quickly but this time since tenant vacated, cannot rent.. Kind of worry now cos every month need to pay cash for mortgage.
    whats the unit size and how many bedroom?

  25. #25
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    More expats on local package and they are willing to accept it.

    Even 6k rental is getting tough and many expats prefer new houses despite smaller living space.

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    I bought Q1 2009



    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008
    It really depends when and where you bought the CCR unit.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thomastansb
    I bought Q1 2009

    Congrats, would have doubled by now.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008
    There will be more with the completion of vision, etc.
    Sounds like my chicken rice will become $3.50.from $3 by e end of next year bcoz more expats over there.

  29. #29
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    Large quantum rental >7k these days harder to rent out. Small is gd, buy too big in CCR die pain pain either vacant or shitty yield as news highlighted over n over again.

    For CCR studio now easily 1.1-1.2mil. 4k on average is still okish. The only real MM unit for skysuites @ CBD in terms of quantum, averaging 700k+ can rent at 3k without any problem for those on housing budget cuts.

    Massive supply of 1.8k units over 6yrs at least. Rental wise, everything back to fundamentals, with increasing supply and if demand does not meet it will be affected not doubt and it applies in all districts

  30. #30
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    Like Rosy said. Should have made quite good money. Bought one during that time. Already gone up by 90%.
    Quote Originally Posted by thomastansb
    I bought Q1 2009


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