Results 1 to 30 of 30

Thread: S'pore home prices soar, but not invincible

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Posts
    1,763

    Default S'pore home prices soar, but not invincible

    S'pore home prices soar, but not invincible
    Dec 20, 2012 - PropertyGuru.com.sg
    *** *Comment*** *E-mail to friend*** *Bookmark & Share

    By Romesh Navaratnarajah:

    Singapore home prices have remained among the highest in the world amid challenges faced by the economy this year. Since the global financial crisis, prices have soared 56 percent and this is expected to continue in 2013, even as sales volumes decline due to the government’s cooling measures. *

    In fact, prices have stayed on an upward trend with a 0.5 percent increase in Q3 2012, according to data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA). But home prices are still vulnerable.

    According to Michael Wan, research analyst at Credit Suisse, there are two scenarios that could lead to a decline in prices – a deep slump in economic growth and higher interest rates.

    Firstly, interest rates which fuel residential demand are now near record lows at 0.4 percent, based on the Singapore Interbank Offered Rate (SIBOR), a benchmark rate for home loans.

    But Wan predicts that if SIBOR increases to seven percent in the next five years, prices could drop by up to 14 percent within that period. Such a scenario last took place in 1998.

    “To see a return to such a high rate would probably require either a huge positive growth shock (in the U.S.) and/or a very sharp pick-up in inflation in the U.S. economy,” said Wan.

    Second of all, a “growth shock” could also fracture housing prices. Wan said that if the country’s economy grows just 0.4 to 0.5 percent per year in the next five years, prices could decline by 16 percent.

    While economic forecasts are positive, a fall in prices is not entirely impossible, Wan explained “given our previous estimate that a full-blown euro zone breakup would cause Singapore's gross domestic product to contract by more than nine percent”.

    *

    Romesh Navaratnarajah, Senior Editor of PropertyGuru, wrote this story. To contact him about this or other stories email [email protected]

    *

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    1,788

    Default

    waiting for next crisis...

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Posts
    2,094

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Lovelle
    waiting for next crisis...
    for ppty price to go up or down?
    I took the road less traveled by, and that has made all the difference.” - Robert Frost quotes (American poet, 1874-1963)

  4. #4
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Posts
    543

    Default

    Most if not all all in this forum already knew these 2 scenarios. Can ask wan to think of another scenario nobody can think of so as to retain his expert analyst title.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Posts
    7,482

    Default

    wan is looking at the wrong time frame. there is one setup that will lead to housing market correction. and it will happen again. but not those scenarios that he mentioned.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Posts
    8,926

    Default

    yawn

    In Miami, an anonymous Russian buyer forked out US$47 million (S$57 million) for a 30,000 sq ft modern mansion back in August. Located at 3 Indian Creek, the property boasts an auto showroom and entire “spa pavilion”.

    But no other US city has come close to the sky-high prices in New York, especially the apartment buildings near Central Park in Manhattan. In February, Russian billionaire Dmitry Rybolovlev purchased a US$88 million (S$107 million) penthouse for his daughter. The price translates to about US$13,000 psf (S$15,861 psf), the highest psf price paid in the country.

    => talking about invincible
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Posts
    7,482

    Default

    12x our OCR on psf basis.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Posts
    2,309

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by kane
    12x our OCR on psf basis.
    Like that also can compared ?

    Singaporeans really like to compare sia!

    DKSG

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Posts
    7,482

    Default

    Compare what is heaven and earth mah.

  10. #10
    teddybear's Avatar
    teddybear is offline Global recession is coming....
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    10,800

    Default

    $15k+ psf in central NY vs $1k+ psf in the suburbs...
    And Singaporeans say that the CCR and OCR should be almost same price because Singapore very small?

    Quote Originally Posted by kane
    Compare what is heaven and earth mah.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    1,393

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    $15k+ psf in central NY vs $1k+ psf in the suburbs...
    And Singaporeans say that the CCR and OCR should be almost same price because Singapore very small?
    thus either CCR is underpriced or OCR is overpriced. or both!

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Posts
    5,837

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    thus either CCR is underpriced or OCR is overpriced. or both!



    No doubt spore is small. But how to compare ccr n OCR?

    Sometimes I really dun understand how people can pay such high psf for OCR
    Can only say they are looking at quantum value

    Just like. When prices are so high and when one cannot afford FH, they go for LH and then argue that one can never outlive 99 years.....

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Posts
    1,569

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    $15k+ psf in central NY vs $1k+ psf in the suburbs...
    And Singaporeans say that the CCR and OCR should be almost same price because Singapore very small?
    I always thought no matter how big or small a country is.. the price differential in housing is related more to the profile of the buyers.

    If a certain profile of buyers always buy into a certain area, that area will become the price range of that profile group over time.

    example, if rich people keep on buying D99, even if D99 is far away from the city, it will be the most expensive price in the country.

    Isn't that how it works?

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Posts
    1,516

    Default

    Our fairly wealthy laguna bought 4 units in 2011 and 2012. All of them located in OCR? I am sure she is not following the herd mentality. She probably sees value in certain OCR now.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Posts
    1,295

    Default

    learn something here, thanks....profound...

    Quote Originally Posted by focus
    I always thought no matter how big or small a country is.. the price differential in housing is related more to the profile of the buyers.

    If a certain profile of buyers always buy into a certain area, that area will become the price range of that profile group over time.

    example, if rich people keep on buying D99, even if D99 is far away from the city, it will be the most expensive price in the country.

    Isn't that how it works?

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Posts
    5,837

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Rosy
    Our fairly wealthy laguna bought 4 units in 2011 and 2012. All of them located in OCR? I am sure she is not following the herd mentality. She probably sees value in certain OCR now.

    as a veteran investor ... laguna probably knew the mentality of singaporeans...

    she need not see value in OCR
    she probably is at the front of the herd

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Posts
    1,516

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    as a veteran investor ... laguna probably knew the mentality of singaporeans...

    she need not see value in OCR
    she probably is at the front of the herd
    Leading the herds?

    With 4years SSD, may not be able to escape in time.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Posts
    7,482

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    as a veteran investor ... laguna probably knew the mentality of singaporeans...

    she need not see value in OCR
    she probably is at the front of the herd
    She's picked some good stuff along the way. Her eco was pretty decent. Never thought far east would let things go on the cheap. By their standard of cheap, I mean their prices are comparable to the peers.

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    3,812

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Rosy
    Leading the herds?

    With 4years SSD, may not be able to escape in time.
    Hypothetically, what if someone has a few bot before 2011 and a few bot after 2011. Would this person be able to 'Escape'?

    Your reasoning is great. But look further.... The truth is out there... Hahahaha

  20. #20
    ikan bilis's Avatar
    ikan bilis is offline i'm Buaya ! Girls BEWARE !!...
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Posts
    1,385

    Default

    why laguna becomes a "she" ??... does not sound like a "she" all the time here wo ??..

  21. #21
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    -
    Posts
    65

    Default

    Singapore is in the process of decentralisation as its population rises. MRT stations no longer located mostly at HDB new towns, but have now spreadout to cover many private residential areas. There is a big improvement in term of public transport accessibility and convenience. Local and regional shopping centres have also brought the daily basic needs to the doorsteps of residential neighbourhood. It is also the government long term plan to bring works to the various regoinal centers so that the distance and time for travelling to the workplace is lesser. It will also free up more road capacity, etc.,. With so much infrastructure spending in OCR regions, the rise in the price of PC in OCR is predictable. Noted that the locations for GLS in OCR areas have the tendency to be near MRT stations. The buyers in OCR area are mostly Singaporean, one important factor for consideration is the daily living cost, particularly for own stay, which is perceived to be lower in OCR than in CCR areas. Majority of the buyers will choose to stay in an area of lower daily living cost. Nowadays, even Indonesia buyers find values in OCR, some of them have moved away from D9,10,11 and penetrated into OCR areas. Decentralisation have indeed increased the values to OCR areas! As for CCR, It can be seen that it is also in the process of transformation and the creation of new centres; The traditional centre of the city, Orchard road district has recently been challenged by new comer, the marina bay new downtown. The turf of the rich is no longer just concentrated at D9,10,11, but have expanded to sentosa, shenton way/marina bay,etc., A variety of centres in CCR will emerge in the long run that cater for different niches. I believe CCR will always have its appeal and will always command a premium. However, what is attractive to majority of the buyers nowaday is affordability and small quantum value. without an increase in the number of foreign buyers in the market, the property price in CCR may be undervalued in comparison to that of OCR, but it will continue to suffer from the lack of buyers.

  22. #22
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    3,812

    Default

    Bro, don't fight it.... Use it to your advantage.... That's all....

    If tomorrow, everyone buy silver instead of gold, flow with it....

    Same with forex, flow with the new trend... It is recognized that US will continue to drop... So we don't fight it and use it to our advantage... When us is gonna go up against Singapore dollar, we just buy more us dollar then...

    How many condos in OCR today are 1,500 psf? Many don't know RCR from OCR... They thnk bishan OCR, they think Pasir Panjang OCR, they think Toa Payoh OCR....

    Most OCR are still at 1k +.... They just take a few new project and jump to conclusion... They might as well take The Marq as reference point and say the entire CCR is 5k + psf. So if u compare Marq with any new OCR launch, big gap what.....

    The CCR to me is in doldrum because I see the key site for CCR will be marina bay and sentosa.... Sentosa will be like the peak of hong kong (exclusivity) and marina will have all the high end shopping and dining overtaking orchard....

    Many people refused to believe that the port will shift out to tuas and it is already happening...

    Enough said.... I most of the time sala, so take it as I TCSS tonite... No need to debunk me as I already admit I sala.... Hahahahahaha... To those who disagree with me, you are right... I only talking rubbish....

    Hahahahaha

    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    No doubt spore is small. But how to compare ccr n OCR?

    Sometimes I really dun understand how people can pay such high psf for OCR
    Can only say they are looking at quantum value

    Just like. When prices are so high and when one cannot afford FH, they go for LH and then argue that one can never outlive 99 years.....

  23. #23
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    3,812

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by ikan bilis
    why laguna becomes a "she" ??... does not sound like a "she" all the time here wo ??..
    Maybe machiam like aurora, hubby and wife share same account

  24. #24
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    2,067

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by chestnut

    Enough said.... I most of the time sala, so take it as I TCSS tonite... No need to debunk me as I already admit I sala.... Hahahahahaha... To those who disagree with me, you are right... I only talking rubbish....

    Hahahahaha
    Bro, your postings always got caveat one. be confident of your posting mah and stand firm to your belief.

  25. #25
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    3,812

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by leesg123
    Bro, your postings always got caveat one. be confident of your posting mah and stand firm to your belief.
    Bro, but I most of the time sala wat???? I already very confident to admit wat???

    Hahahahahaha

    How many in this forum so confident t admit.. None leh... Only me...

    Hahahahahaha


    Cheers


  26. #26
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Posts
    7,482

    Default

    at the end of the day, just go with fundamentals and facts, over the long run, you won't be too far off from getting it right.

  27. #27
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Posts
    5,837

    Default

    Thanks bro


    I totally agree with you...


    I know there are investors who sometimes 'go with the flow' or 'lead the flow'
    With no fundamental.
    When others follow, these investors will exit n take profit..




    QUOTE=chestnut]Bro, don't fight it.... Use it to your advantage.... That's all....

    If tomorrow, everyone buy silver instead of gold, flow with it....

    Same with forex, flow with the new trend... It is recognized that US will continue to drop... So we don't fight it and use it to our advantage... When us is gonna go up against Singapore dollar, we just buy more us dollar then...

    How many condos in OCR today are 1,500 psf? Many don't know RCR from OCR... They thnk bishan OCR, they think Pasir Panjang OCR, they think Toa Payoh OCR....

    Most OCR are still at 1k +.... They just take a few new project and jump to conclusion... They might as well take The Marq as reference point and say the entire CCR is 5k + psf. So if u compare Marq with any new OCR launch, big gap what.....

    The CCR to me is in doldrum because I see the key site for CCR will be marina bay and sentosa.... Sentosa will be like the peak of hong kong (exclusivity) and marina will have all the high end shopping and dining overtaking orchard....

    Many people refused to believe that the port will shift out to tuas and it is already happening...

    Enough said.... I most of the time sala, so take it as I TCSS tonite... No need to debunk me as I already admit I sala.... Hahahahahaha... To those who disagree with me, you are right... I only talking rubbish....

    Hahahahaha [/QUOTE]

  28. #28
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Posts
    7,482

    Default

    traders favourite axiom: the trend is your friend.

  29. #29
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    3,812

    Default

    Bro, this are called smart money..... First movers...

    The herd will be on the bus... The last to exit the bus will carry the baby....

    Sometimes, the bus change route and people don't know, this group also quite scary.... They can wait, wait and yet the bus is not coming, they don't even know....

    Bro, your cck should be doing damn well now... It started its uptrend as early as 2 years ago.... It should have gone up by about 40% from 2 yrs ago...

    Go propertyguru.com to check out the prices...


    Cheers and good nite...


    [QUOTE=proud owner]Thanks bro


    I totally agree with you...


    I know there are investors who sometimes 'go with the flow' or 'lead the flow'
    With no fundamental.
    When others follow, these investors will exit n take profit..

  30. #30
    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Posts
    1,295

    Default

    It would take a while for ppl to see from this prospective or even accept it...some riches want to play safe and lazy to do more research and would always think, hey, buy CCR won't go wrong la.....this, might never go wrong, I'm not sure... but maybe elsewhere the grass are greener.
    Just like between buying gold and silver, gold will always be more expensive la...right?? But then at this time, silver offers more value and potential??

    Just for some thoughts...

    Merry Christmas to all.


    Quote Originally Posted by jslee78
    Singapore is in the process of decentralisation as its population rises. MRT stations no longer located mostly at HDB new towns, but have now spreadout to cover many private residential areas. There is a big improvement in term of public transport accessibility and convenience. Local and regional shopping centres have also brought the daily basic needs to the doorsteps of residential neighbourhood. It is also the government long term plan to bring works to the various regoinal centers so that the distance and time for travelling to the workplace is lesser. It will also free up more road capacity, etc.,. With so much infrastructure spending in OCR regions, the rise in the price of PC in OCR is predictable. Noted that the locations for GLS in OCR areas have the tendency to be near MRT stations. The buyers in OCR area are mostly Singaporean, one important factor for consideration is the daily living cost, particularly for own stay, which is perceived to be lower in OCR than in CCR areas. Majority of the buyers will choose to stay in an area of lower daily living cost. Nowadays, even Indonesia buyers find values in OCR, some of them have moved away from D9,10,11 and penetrated into OCR areas. Decentralisation have indeed increased the values to OCR areas! As for CCR, It can be seen that it is also in the process of transformation and the creation of new centres; The traditional centre of the city, Orchard road district has recently been challenged by new comer, the marina bay new downtown. The turf of the rich is no longer just concentrated at D9,10,11, but have expanded to sentosa, shenton way/marina bay,etc., A variety of centres in CCR will emerge in the long run that cater for different niches. I believe CCR will always have its appeal and will always command a premium. However, what is attractive to majority of the buyers nowaday is affordability and small quantum value. without an increase in the number of foreign buyers in the market, the property price in CCR may be undervalued in comparison to that of OCR, but it will continue to suffer from the lack of buyers.

Similar Threads

  1. Q4 growth in S'pore pte home prices up 0.2%
    By reporter2 in forum Singapore Private Condominium Property Discussion and News
    Replies: 0
    -: 03-01-12, 20:09
  2. Upgraders sidelined as home prices soar: DTZ
    By mr funny in forum Singapore Private Condominium Property Discussion and News
    Replies: 1
    -: 27-11-09, 09:40
  3. Manhattan home prices soar 41% to US$1.6m despite slowing economy
    By mr funny in forum HDB, EC, commercial and industrial property discussion
    Replies: 0
    -: 18-04-08, 11:17
  4. S'pore's home prices rise 7.9% in Q2
    By mr funny in forum Singapore Private Condominium Property Discussion and News
    Replies: 8
    -: 03-07-07, 15:06
  5. S'pore luxury home prices up 7.7% in Q2
    By mr funny in forum Singapore Private Condominium Property Discussion and News
    Replies: 0
    -: 18-08-06, 17:25

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •