Asian property markets show signs of weakness
Dec 12, 2012 - PropertyGuru.com.sg
By Andrew Batt:
Global housing markets posted mixed signals during the full year ending Q3 2012 according to the latest survey of global house price trends by the Global Property Guide.
The bad news is strongly concentrated in Europe as the scale of the European downturn, the sheer size of the downward pressure, continues to surprise.
Seven of the 10 Asian housing markets included in the survey performed more poorly this year than the previous year. The number of countries with rising house prices now equals market falls. Though numerically the rises tend to be larger than the falls, latest quarterly figures suggest weakness ahead in some countries.
In Singapore, house prices continued to fall as government market-cooling measures took effect. During the year to Q3 2012, house prices dropped 2.88 percent after falling 3.14 percent in Q2 and 1.36 percent in Q1 2012. House prices fell 0.34 percent during the latest quarter, Singapore 's fifth consecutive quarter-on-quarter house price decline.
Other Asian countries and capital cities which saw modest year-on-year house price falls to Q3 2012 included Shanghai, China (-2.34 percent), Tokyo, Japan (-1.94 percent), Thailand (-0.83 percent) and Indonesia (-0.23 percent).
Four Asian countries experienced slowing house price increases when compared to the same period last year.
In India's capital New Delhi, house prices rose 5.31 percent during the year to Q3 2012, in sharp contrast with the 22.68 percent year-on-year rise seen in the same period last year. House prices fell 0.06 percent during the latest quarter.
In Malaysia, house prices rose by just 5.86 percent during the year to Q3 2012, after rising by 9.27 percent in Q2 and 9.51 percent in Q1 2012. House prices dropped 2.11 percent during the latest quarter.
In Hong Kong, house prices surged by 10.76 percent year-on-year to Q3 2012, but this is lower than the annual price increase of 12.92 percent seen in the same period last year. During the latest quarter, Hong Kong's house prices rose by 6.69 percent.
The only exception is the Philippines, with house prices in Makati CBD rising by 4.63 percent year-on-year in Q3 2012, an improvement from the meagre growth of 0.64 percent during the same period last year. House prices increased 0.62 percent during the latest quarter. The Philippines' economy is expected to expand by a healthy 4.80 percent this year.
Good news:
- The U.S. housing market recovery continues. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) seasonally-adjusted purchase-only house price index rose by 2.31 percent year-on-year in Q3 2012, the highest growth seen since Q2 2006. The nationwide seasonally-adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller home price index also rose by 1.92 percent during the year to Q3 2012, in sharp contrast with its seven percent year-on-year decline seen in Q3 2011.
- Dubai, UAE, has rebounded strongly. The price index for all residential properties surged by 14.43 percent during the year to end-Q3 2012, as compared to a meagre year-on-year increase of 0.96 percent seen in the same period last year.
- Pacific housing markets are now recovering. New Zealand 's median house price rose by 5.19 percent during the year to end-Q3 2012, in sharp contrast with the 4.39 percent year-on-year decline in Q3 2011. Likewise, Australia 's housing market is also improving, with house prices in its eight major cities falling by just 1.57 percent year-on-year in Q3 2012, the lowest decline since Q4 2010.
- Positive news for some individual European housing markets. House price falls in Ireland may be decelerating. Ireland 's residential property price index fell by 13.17 percent year-on-year in Q3 2012, the lowest decline since Q1 2011. In addition, house prices have risen significantly in Austria, Turkey, Latvia, Germany, Iceland and Finland.
Bad news:
- Many European housing markets remain extremely depressed, and continue their rapid spiral downwards. House price falls are accelerating in Greece, Spain, Netherlands, Portugal, Croatia and Lithuania. Of the 23 European countries included in the survey, 14 countries recorded house price falls while only nine countries have seen house price increases. The nine weakest housing markets in our global survey are all in Europe.
- The Asian housing market surge has weakened. Seven of the 10 Asian housing markets included in our survey performed more poorly this year than the previous year. But Asia's biggest housing market, China, is recovering, judging by the latest quarter's figures.
In inflation-adjusted terms, 23 housing markets have shown better year-on-year figures in Q3 2012 than in the same period last year, while 20 housing markets have shown poorer performance. However the nominal figures are slightly more disappointing—25 housing markets performed more poorly while only 19 performed better.
In conclusion, of the 44 countries for which quarterly house price figures are available, house prices fell in 23 countries, and rose in 21 countries during the year ending in the third quarter of 2012, again in inflation-adjusted terms.
The Global Property Guide's statistical presentation uses price changes after inflation, giving a more realistic picture than the more upbeat nominal figures usually preferred by real estate agents. Nominal figures can be misleading, as suggested by the fact that year-on-year in Q3, nominal house prices rose in more countries (27 countries) than fell (17 countries).
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Originally Posted by Shanhz
