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Thread: Asian property markets show signs of weakness

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    Default Asian property markets show signs of weakness

    Asian property markets show signs of weakness
    Dec 12, 2012 - PropertyGuru.com.sg
    By Andrew Batt:

    Global housing markets posted mixed signals during the full year ending Q3 2012 according to the latest survey of global house price trends by the Global Property Guide.

    The bad news is strongly concentrated in Europe as the scale of the European downturn, the sheer size of the downward pressure, continues to surprise.

    Seven of the 10 Asian housing markets included in the survey performed more poorly this year than the previous year. The number of countries with rising house prices now equals market falls. Though numerically the rises tend to be larger than the falls, latest quarterly figures suggest weakness ahead in some countries.

    In Singapore, house prices continued to fall as government market-cooling measures took effect. During the year to Q3 2012, house prices dropped 2.88 percent after falling 3.14 percent in Q2 and 1.36 percent in Q1 2012. House prices fell 0.34 percent during the latest quarter, Singapore 's fifth consecutive quarter-on-quarter house price decline.


    Other Asian countries and capital cities which saw modest year-on-year house price falls to Q3 2012 included Shanghai, China (-2.34 percent), Tokyo, Japan (-1.94 percent), Thailand (-0.83 percent) and Indonesia (-0.23 percent).

    Four Asian countries experienced slowing house price increases when compared to the same period last year.

    In India's capital New Delhi, house prices rose 5.31 percent during the year to Q3 2012, in sharp contrast with the 22.68 percent year-on-year rise seen in the same period last year. House prices fell 0.06 percent during the latest quarter.

    In Malaysia, house prices rose by just 5.86 percent during the year to Q3 2012, after rising by 9.27 percent in Q2 and 9.51 percent in Q1 2012. House prices dropped 2.11 percent during the latest quarter.

    In Hong Kong, house prices surged by 10.76 percent year-on-year to Q3 2012, but this is lower than the annual price increase of 12.92 percent seen in the same period last year. During the latest quarter, Hong Kong's house prices rose by 6.69 percent.

    The only exception is the Philippines, with house prices in Makati CBD rising by 4.63 percent year-on-year in Q3 2012, an improvement from the meagre growth of 0.64 percent during the same period last year. House prices increased 0.62 percent during the latest quarter. The Philippines' economy is expected to expand by a healthy 4.80 percent this year.

    Good news:

    - The U.S. housing market recovery continues. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) seasonally-adjusted purchase-only house price index rose by 2.31 percent year-on-year in Q3 2012, the highest growth seen since Q2 2006. The nationwide seasonally-adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller home price index also rose by 1.92 percent during the year to Q3 2012, in sharp contrast with its seven percent year-on-year decline seen in Q3 2011.
    - Dubai, UAE, has rebounded strongly. The price index for all residential properties surged by 14.43 percent during the year to end-Q3 2012, as compared to a meagre year-on-year increase of 0.96 percent seen in the same period last year.
    - Pacific housing markets are now recovering. New Zealand 's median house price rose by 5.19 percent during the year to end-Q3 2012, in sharp contrast with the 4.39 percent year-on-year decline in Q3 2011. Likewise, Australia 's housing market is also improving, with house prices in its eight major cities falling by just 1.57 percent year-on-year in Q3 2012, the lowest decline since Q4 2010.
    - Positive news for some individual European housing markets. House price falls in Ireland may be decelerating. Ireland 's residential property price index fell by 13.17 percent year-on-year in Q3 2012, the lowest decline since Q1 2011. In addition, house prices have risen significantly in Austria, Turkey, Latvia, Germany, Iceland and Finland.

    Bad news:

    - Many European housing markets remain extremely depressed, and continue their rapid spiral downwards. House price falls are accelerating in Greece, Spain, Netherlands, Portugal, Croatia and Lithuania. Of the 23 European countries included in the survey, 14 countries recorded house price falls while only nine countries have seen house price increases. The nine weakest housing markets in our global survey are all in Europe.
    - The Asian housing market surge has weakened. Seven of the 10 Asian housing markets included in our survey performed more poorly this year than the previous year. But Asia's biggest housing market, China, is recovering, judging by the latest quarter's figures.

    In inflation-adjusted terms, 23 housing markets have shown better year-on-year figures in Q3 2012 than in the same period last year, while 20 housing markets have shown poorer performance. However the nominal figures are slightly more disappointingó25 housing markets performed more poorly while only 19 performed better.

    In conclusion, of the 44 countries for which quarterly house price figures are available, house prices fell in 23 countries, and rose in 21 countries during the year ending in the third quarter of 2012, again in inflation-adjusted terms.

    The Global Property Guide's statistical presentation uses price changes after inflation, giving a more realistic picture than the more upbeat nominal figures usually preferred by real estate agents. Nominal figures can be misleading, as suggested by the fact that year-on-year in Q3, nominal house prices rose in more countries (27 countries) than fell (17 countries).

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    sooo.... no more CMs? quick quick send to KBW....

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    bro chestnut... you were right.

    http://forums.condosingapore.com/sho...8&postcount=38

    Bro, without cm, I agree with you... If prices rise by 20% per year, do you consider a euphoria? Do u see speculation? With SSD, suddently, all are investors (long term)...

    Are condos selling out within 1 day??? To me sell out within a day is euphoria.

    To me prices are dropping because prices should follow inflation rate. Cost of building, etc... Is already up...

    Do u see us to drop. How to drop steeply when u are already down??

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    I'm economics idiot.

    Can gurus here opin if we are near the peak or at the peak in SG ppty mkt?

    Based on my 'gut feel', I feel it. On a scale of strength 1-10, 10 being strongest positive, it is creeping to 8.5.

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    每個人都在問我到底還在等什麼
    等到春夏秋冬都過了難道還不夠
    其實是因為我的心有一個缺口
    等待developers把它還給我

    你知不知道 你知不知道 我等到花兒也謝了
    你知不知道 你知不知道 我等到花兒也謝了?
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shanhz
    In Singapore, house prices continued to fall as government market-cooling measures took effect. During the year to Q3 2012, house prices dropped 2.88 percent after falling 3.14 percent in Q2 and 1.36 percent in Q1 2012. House prices fell 0.34 percent during the latest quarter, Singapore 's fifth consecutive quarter-on-quarter house price decline.
    got meh ??...

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    Quote Originally Posted by ikan bilis
    got meh ??...
    I think they referring to resale prices? But volumes sure did go up up up.

    Now that I've checked, definitely something wrong with the report.

    Check out this by KE

    http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j...vaXdNV0_ysJUkA
    Last edited by mcmlxxvi; 12-12-12 at 16:02.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shanhz

    The Global Property Guide's statistical presentation uses price changes after inflation, giving a more realistic picture than the more upbeat nominal figures usually preferred by real estate agents. Nominal figures can be misleading, as suggested by the fact that year-on-year in Q3, nominal house prices rose in more countries (27 countries) than fell (17 countries).
    you guys really selective reading leh.

    here says it's adjusted for inflation. while i am not well-versed in economics to comment whether it is true or not, it does make sense to me.

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    Oh, the propguru report is after INFLATION ADJUSTMENT. of coz la...

    Without adjustment it's

    "Rising heat in 3Q12. According to the official statistics released by the
    URA on Monday, private residential property prices rose by 0.6% in
    3Q12, up from the 0.4% increase in 2Q12. Prices of non-landed private
    properties grew by 1% in the Outside Central Region (OCR), 0.8% in
    the Rest of Central Region (RCR) and 0.1% in the Core Central Region
    (CCR)."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shanhz
    you guys really selective reading leh.

    here says it's adjusted for inflation. while i am not well-versed in economics to comment whether it is true or not, it does make sense to me.
    Sorry also just saw that part! tq tq

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    ...so they are saying in paying higher prices you are actually paying less?.....

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    ok,... sorry,.... hmmm.... i missed that part "adjusted for inflation"....

    but,... alamak !!... like that got much meaning one meh ??.... just bcoz some reporter want to shout big big title "Asian property markets show signs of weakness"... they go for "adjusted for inflation" number ??...

    like that bank interest rate -4% lah ??....

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    I can say this:

    property crashed 30% in last 10y adjusted for gold



    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    每個人都在問我到底還在等什麼
    等到春夏秋冬都過了難道還不夠
    其實是因為我的心有一個缺口
    等待developers把它還給我

    你知不知道 你知不知道 我等到花兒也謝了
    你知不知道 你知不知道 我等到花兒也謝了?
    are you the last few bear bear in this forum?

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    Quote Originally Posted by East Lover
    are you the last few bear bear in this forum?
    I need to voice for the bears since mr basic is gone liao
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    I'm sure there will be a relationship between nominal price and inflation adjusted price. Can any kind soul help to plot the price movements for both graphs and we can do some comparison?

    I would think nominal price deviate away from the inflation adjusted price based on sentiments in the market. It might be useful to observe how far and for how long does the deviattion occur.

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    This means that those that are in debt are better off. The more debt the better, bank interest lower than inflation. Left other people's money suffer the consequences of inflation.

    Inflation will make property prices go up, also make rental go up. So what if it stays flat after adjusting for inflation, it's other people's money you're using....

    I love inflation because I'm ankle deep in debt....

    But would have been up to neck with debt if not for those blasted CMs

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    Quote Originally Posted by sh
    This means that those that are in debt are better off. The more debt the better, bank interest lower than inflation. Left other people's money suffer the consequences of inflation.

    Inflation will make property prices go up, also make rental go up. So what if it stays flat after adjusting for inflation, it's other people's money you're using....

    I love inflation because I'm ankle deep in debt....

    But would have been up to neck with debt if not for those blasted CMs
    With QE4 announcing tonight, who can blame you. Our debt will be diluted along with our saving.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Condo Kaiser
    I'm sure there will be a relationship between nominal price and inflation adjusted price. Can any kind soul help to plot the price movements for both graphs and we can do some comparison?

    I would think nominal price deviate away from the inflation adjusted price based on sentiments in the market. It might be useful to observe how far and for how long does the deviattion occur.
    does post #4 answer your question?

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    Quote Originally Posted by ikan bilis
    ok,... sorry,.... hmmm.... i missed that part "adjusted for inflation"....

    but,... alamak !!... like that got much meaning one meh ??.... just bcoz some reporter want to shout big big title "Asian property markets show signs of weakness"... they go for "adjusted for inflation" number ??...

    like that bank interest rate -4% lah ??....
    you are right what.. bank i/r indeed -4%.. hahaha...

    if inflation increase at 5% and housing prices only increase at 2.5%, it would mean houses are becoming cheaper and cheaper. so your "FD" in housing only give you returns below the inflation, no good if you are long ppty. but if you are short ppty, then it could mean 2 things - housing price will eventually catch up, or the inflation expected to slow down.

    of coz all other factors eg: population, demand, etc.. but this is one factor to look at.

    of coz you are the guru. is my logic correct?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shanhz
    you are right what.. bank i/r indeed -4%.. hahaha...

    if inflation increase at 5% and housing prices only increase at 2.5%, it would mean houses are becoming cheaper and cheaper. so your "FD" in housing only give you returns below the inflation, no good if you are long ppty. but if you are short ppty, then it could mean 2 things - housing price will eventually catch up, or the inflation expected to slow down.

    of coz all other factors eg: population, demand, etc.. but this is one factor to look at.

    of coz you are the guru. is my logic correct?
    me no guru... it is just that the way the reporter trying to write something out of "nothing", made me read the article half-way already gave up... that's why i missed that "The Global Property Guide's statistical presentation uses price changes after inflation" at very end of the article....

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    Quote Originally Posted by ikan bilis
    me no guru... it is just that the way the reporter trying to write something out of "nothing", made me read the article half-way already gave up... that's why i missed that "The Global Property Guide's statistical presentation uses price changes after inflation" at very end of the article....
    When one can't convince, confuse.

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