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Thread: Will there be an oversupply of condos??

  1. #1
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    Default Will there be an oversupply of condos??


  2. #2
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    Look at our population today and compare with project in 2012 in the chart. Notice something????

    Hahahahahaha



    Something for you all to read and analyse.


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    Quote Originally Posted by chestnut
    Look at our population today and compare with project in 2012 in the chart. Notice something????

    Hahahahahaha



    Something for you all to read and analyse.

    Singapore population in 2012 already hit 5.312 mio. We are way ahead of the 1.5% projection!

    http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/latestdata.html
    树大必有枯枝,人多必有白痴。
    树无皮必死无疑,人不要脸天下无敌!

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    Quote Originally Posted by leftfield
    Singapore population in 2012 already hit 5.312 mio. We are way ahead of the 1.5% projection!

    http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/latestdata.html

    Hahahahahaha. So what is your deduction/conclusion????

    rite????

    Everything tells a story....

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    The S'pore govt should have more up to date figures. If their scholars have miscalculated and indeed there is a bad housing oversupply, it may cost them the next election.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chestnut
    Hahahahahaha. So what is your deduction/conclusion????

    rite????

    Everything tells a story....
    All these tightening of immigration control is just a smokescreen, we will achieve the 6 mio target ahead of time.

    Hence the frantic GLS bidding, HBD & Condo building! Supply not enough!
    树大必有枯枝,人多必有白痴。
    树无皮必死无疑,人不要脸天下无敌!

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    Quote Originally Posted by leftfield
    All these tightening of immigration control is just a smokescreen, we will achieve the 6 mio target ahead of time.

    Hence the frantic GLS bidding, HBD & Condo building! Supply not enough!
    The tightening i guess is in the quality, they improve the quality which is good for Singapore! Ha ha tightening doesn't mean tightening of quantity. If there are really X amount of high quality migrants, Singapore will take them all

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    Just by looking at the first graph, the population to housing stock ratio is the highest for year 2009 to 2011.
    That means the population is increasing ahead of the number of housing available.
    So based on this trend, there will not be an over supply.

    Have not read the rest of the article yet.

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    Past trend doesn't seem to suggest that we'll take 8 years to get to 6mio. The 1.5% growth seems modest rather than aggressive.

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    It will come when world/China economy picks up. Infrastructure has been planned for it. So many strong signals from garment lately.

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    1) What was the date of this article? Can't find it anywhere. I assume it's end 2011 since the chart stops there.

    2) You guys said that the population growth is running ahead of the projected. But hor.. based on Singapore in Figures 2012, the upcoming supply in the pipeline is 85,724 (end 2011 as base year). But this article seems to say 12,574+13,782+19,831+26,059 which is only 72,246. Even if you add 2011/2012 figures of 10,525, that's only 82,771 total.

    So... their numbers on supply also underestimated.

    3) How accurate is the population to housing stock ratio? it depends on the mix of non-residents. high quality foreigners need good housing, but foreign workers sleep in dorms. So a 3.9 between 2000-2005 may not be an apple to apple comparison to a 3.9 now, because we have alot more foreign workers here building BTOs, condos, etc. Also, the ratio of singaporean to PR may have changed, and i dun tink govt release the figures on this.

    For example, in 2000, the SPR to total population ratio is 81.2%. by 2011, this ratio is 73%.

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    give those who 'miss the boat' a chance, please..
    I took the road less traveled by, and that has made all the difference. - Robert Frost quotes (American poet, 1874-1963)

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    When there is oversupply does tat men property will crash.....not really, wen people have holding power and refuse to sell, ......the price will stabilize or maybe dip 10%, it won't crash....buyers waiting at the sidelines will come in....

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    Quote Originally Posted by henryhk
    When there is oversupply does tat men property will crash.....not really, wen people have holding power and refuse to sell, ......the price will stabilize or maybe dip 10%, it won't crash....buyers waiting at the sidelines will come in....
    if majority of the buyers are homeowners...then the price will not crash
    I took the road less traveled by, and that has made all the difference. - Robert Frost quotes (American poet, 1874-1963)

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    If everyone keep saying oversupply, it usually wont.

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    Quote Originally Posted by roly8
    if majority of the buyers are homeowners...then the price will not crash
    Tat is an assumption, imagine tose who rent has accumulate alot of cash, i know of people who use the $ to pay up 50% of their resale hdb flat....and they can toggle btw hdb and condo

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    Quote Originally Posted by roly8
    give those who 'miss the boat' a chance, please..
    Why u keep saying that? There are still 800-900K 2 bedders aplenty in OCR areas. I'm certain u can easily afford those!
    树大必有枯枝,人多必有白痴。
    树无皮必死无疑,人不要脸天下无敌!

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    Quote Originally Posted by leftfield
    Why u keep saying that? There are still 800-900K 2 bedders aplenty in OCR areas. I'm certain u can easily afford those!
    me don't want to risk too much..
    I took the road less traveled by, and that has made all the difference. - Robert Frost quotes (American poet, 1874-1963)

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    thanks bro chestnut for sharing this article, you know I am the "graph" kind of person ... it is very enlightening

    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    Bro, anytime....

    The latest figure on population when announced gave me a damn shock !!! So I went in one more time !!!

    I look for signs... Hahahahahaha

    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    thanks bro chestnut for sharing this article, you know I am the "graph" kind of person ... it is very enlightening


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    Quote Originally Posted by roly8
    me don't want to risk too much..
    no risk no gain
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    what happens if the no. of singapore citizens keeps increasing but the new supply of landed is almost static?

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    Quote Originally Posted by roly8
    give those who 'miss the boat' a chance, please..
    Quote Originally Posted by roly8
    me don't want to risk too much..
    Bro Roly, your statement conflicting leh... You want me to give you chance but you dont want to take risk. So the chance I give you wasted leh????

    So you want me to give you chance or not... If i give you chance and you dont take, you wasted my chance leh????

    I tell you what, I give u 1 more chance all the way to June next year... You tell me what type of unit u going for, I dont vie with you... After June, no more chance ah.... I will do homework and go in after June 2013 if signs are good...

    Do now I OK.

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    The stock ratio looks a little plateau. Any chartist can crystal ball the trend going forward?

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    Quote Originally Posted by proper-t
    what happens if the no. of singapore citizens keeps increasing but the new supply of landed is almost static?
    Can you elaborate more What about total population (static??? increase??? or decrease???)

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    Quote Originally Posted by cnud
    The stock ratio looks a little plateau. Any chartist can crystal ball the trend going forward?
    Whats the trend??? Me no chartis...I mean Chartist...

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    Quote Originally Posted by proper-t
    what happens if the no. of singapore citizens keeps increasing but the new supply of landed is almost static?
    Quote Originally Posted by chestnut
    Can you elaborate more What about total population (static??? increase??? or decrease???)
    I think what he meant is the number of people in singapore, and not just singaporeans increasing, right bro proper-t?

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    When and Where to move in again?
    Quote Originally Posted by chestnut
    Bro Roly, your statement conflicting leh... You want me to give you chance but you dont want to take risk. So the chance I give you wasted leh????

    So you want me to give you chance or not... If i give you chance and you dont take, you wasted my chance leh????

    I tell you what, I give u 1 more chance all the way to June next year... You tell me what type of unit u going for, I dont vie with you... After June, no more chance ah.... I will do homework and go in after June 2013 if signs are good...

    Do now I OK.

  29. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008
    When and Where to move in again?
    Bro, I about to pm you to seek your advise leh...

    I have a personal reason for June 2013... Not the market conditions... The market is now crazy(or rather becoming crazy)

    Why
    1. Inflation
    2. US seems to be recovering
    3. Dont know so much about Europe tough???
    4. China production picked up.
    5. Interest low all the way to 2014/15
    6. CMs is an indication prices should go up but curtailed...
    7. Stocks are going up.
    8. Low unemployment
    9. The number of "rich" Singaporeans are like never before
    10. Infrastructure kicking all over the place
    11. GLS are still going at ridiculous pricing
    12. Land bank of developers getting less and less (if any kind sole can confirm this, really appreciated)
    13. A lot at sideline, cannot tahan.
    14. Effects of QE

    It is a sign of a perfect storm... But hor, I may be wrong hor.... If any kind sole can contradict, please do so...

    I am now not buying so I just TCSS... Only waiting for June 2013 before I begin my entry if the signs are there...

    But always have this at the back of your mind in any purchase... It will come down.... When, is any body guess.... When and if it does, be prepared, if not you will any of this...


  30. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by roly8
    me don't want to risk too much..
    Even if there is a correction, we are looking at 10-15% at most.

    For 800-900K property, that's like about 100K+ potential downside. You cannot stomach this risk?
    树大必有枯枝,人多必有白痴。
    树无皮必死无疑,人不要脸天下无敌!

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