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Thread: Can I still buy at this time of the cycle?

  1. #1
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    Default Can I still buy at this time of the cycle?

    Dear property experts on this forum:

    There is one here who has been waiting for the market to crash for the past few years but now has reached a peak. I have accumulated sufficient holding power during the waiting period and now have almost run out of patience. Should I buy now or continue to wait for any possible crash? - I buy for own stay / upgrading. Many thanks for any advice.

  2. #2
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    I am no expert but for own stay, if you are upgrading, it means you will also sell high.
    So really not much difference, IMHO.

  3. #3
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    Thanks. I am not selling but renting out.

  4. #4
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    When to buy or not to buy:
    1. Consider your age. If you are early 30s time is on your side, if you are in late 40s you must make your move.
    2. Funds availability. If u have enough money of course you must buy to offset inflation effect.
    3. 1st house or 2nd and 3rd. For your 1st house u must buy now, for 4rd house you can wait.
    4. Family requirement. Consider your growing family needs. If kids are growing up u need bigger space, if kids are moving out need less space.
    5. No matter what people are saying about stock surplus, rental will always increase. Rental is not an option, its better to downgrade to smaller unit than paying rental.

  5. #5
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    When u see the unit u like, buy! Even if u manage to wait until the market crash, the unit you want may no longer be in the market. The time to enjoy your house will also be shorten with each passing year.

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    I been thinking along the line that people are waiting for correction but no one know how deep the correction is going to be and how much the interest rate is going to be by then. More importantly how much prices are going to rise before we see a correction. Not sure if these are valid assumptions.

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    I am thinking of starting an advisory service, assisting people to make decision in investment....tailored....

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mary Lee
    Dear property experts on this forum:

    There is one here who has been waiting for the market to crash for the past few years but now has reached a peak. I have accumulated sufficient holding power during the waiting period and now have almost run out of patience. Should I buy now or continue to wait for any possible crash? - I buy for own stay / upgrading. Many thanks for any advice.
    Hi Mary
    this is a BIG decision, very big decision.
    I would like if possible, do some own thinking first, and share with us, your view..BUY or NOT TO BUY.

    Ya, market is at its peak now. But, perhaps, when u look at it, say, one year later, today peak is still low. When u buy, don't compare the price of today to yesterday, but compare it with tomorrow.

    U just see, ERP, gone up by 25% over night

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Allthepies
    When u see the unit u like, buy! Even if u manage to wait until the market crash, the unit you want may no longer be in the market. The time to enjoy your house will also be shorten with each passing year.
    totally agree...

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Laguna
    I am thinking of starting an advisory service, assisting people to make decision in investment....tailored....
    customer #1....Mr YT....

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by radha08
    customer #1....Mr YT....
    I close my shop immediately

  12. #12
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    Talking

    Supply vs demand.

    Yes a lot of supply is coming on stream, but the demand is so freaking huge it's not funny. EVERYBODY I know who is >20 years old to even 50 years old is thinking of buying and investing in property. This type of groupthink is unheard of 10 years ago.

    There are many many cash rich folks out there. Even those who lack cash, I have personally witnessed some super garang types who will go to 5 or 6 different banks, borrow unsecured loans at 8-12% INTEREST, just to pay for that downpayment!

    And appreciating property prices create a vicious cycle. Many people are taking equity loans against their appreciated properties, and using them to buy more properties! Even though this is not allowed in law, but the money will somehow end up back in the market chasing prices higher and higher.

    Funny thing is, properties are like Veblen goods now. The more the price goes up, and the more difficult it is to buy one (via CMs), then the more people are willing to pay higher prices to own one. Nobody wants to miss the bandwagon this time.

    For prices to come down, the following conditions must be satisfied

    1. Singapore's PAP lose election (<10% probability)
    2. Population regresses to 4 million (0% probability with PAP, <10% without)
    3. HDB BTO prices drop drastically (0% probability, with or without PAP)
    4. Casino licenses are withdrawn (0%)
    5. We lose F1 hosting rights (20%)
    6. Interest rate go above 5% (<30% in next 3 years)

    So there you have it. Not only will prices rise, they will continue unabated until 2016 at least.

    But as always, it's your money so you do your own homework

  13. #13
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    to the threadstarter, just be very selective of new launches. if you pick the wrong one, your buffer is very little to weather on the downside.

    nowadays, the buffer for error on resale also getting much smaller.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mary Lee
    Dear property experts on this forum:

    There is one here who has been waiting for the market to crash for the past few years but now has reached a peak. I have accumulated sufficient holding power during the waiting period and now have almost run out of patience. Should I buy now or continue to wait for any possible crash? - I buy for own stay / upgrading. Many thanks for any advice.
    Many people are hoping that the property market crash, so that they can get a good buy. But when market really crash, will they buy???

    They will never buy, as they do not know how low is low during that time, so they will wait and wait...until the market go up again and they will say wait for the market to crash again..finally they never buy and miss all those boats...

    With the effectiveness of QE3 now, inflation is inevitable, labour cost went up and so do the land cost. I read that the MRT downtown line cost also went up by 70% from 12.8 billion to 20 billion.

  15. #15
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    Nowadays the only time that price will drop a bit is when a new harsh CM comes out.

    e.g. in early 2011, the 4 years SSD and 60% loan for 2nd property came out, FEO offered an unprecedented 5% furniture rebate for their WFI launch.

    e.g. in early 2012 when the ABSD came out, many projects gave extra discounts of 3% for the first few weeks. And some projects lowered their launch prices e.g. ripple bay 1 bedder was only 420k around 850psf.


  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by bakasa2002
    I been thinking along the line that people are waiting for correction but no one know how deep the correction is going to be and how much the interest rate is going to be by then. More importantly how much prices are going to rise before we see a correction. Not sure if these are valid assumptions.
    How deep can a correction be? Thinke Lehman's collapse only caused psf price to dip 20%.

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by kane
    to the threadstarter, just be very selective of new launches. if you pick the wrong one, your buffer is very little to weather on the downside.

    nowadays, the buffer for error on resale also getting much smaller.

    Go for resale. Look hard for opportunistic buying at 10% below market transacted price. 30% downpayment for additional buffer.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mary Lee
    Dear property experts on this forum:

    There is one here who has been waiting for the market to crash for the past few years but now has reached a peak. I have accumulated sufficient holding power during the waiting period and now have almost run out of patience. Should I buy now or continue to wait for any possible crash? - I buy for own stay / upgrading. Many thanks for any advice.
    This is what's in my mind when I buy a 2 Bedroom @ Southbank in June 2006.

    I have 100k cash, I have a 5 room HDB with 100k outstanding loan. 2 Bedroom @ Southbank selling for 535k. At that time there is this thing call DPS, pay 5% and the rest TOP, bank in principle approval not required......

    My 5 room HDB was selling for 390k and rented out for 1.2k two years ago, so I work out the worst case. TOP property drop and I sell my 5 room HDB and stay in Southbank and pay the rest of the mortgage and so I decided to buy a 2 Bedroom @ Southbank.

    Hope this will help you decided.

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by PropertyNewbie
    Supply vs demand.

    Yes a lot of supply is coming on stream, but the demand is so freaking huge it's not funny. EVERYBODY I know who is >20 years old to even 50 years old is thinking of buying and investing in property. This type of groupthink is unheard of 10 years ago.

    There are many many cash rich folks out there. Even those who lack cash, I have personally witnessed some super garang types who will go to 5 or 6 different banks, borrow unsecured loans at 8-12% INTEREST, just to pay for that downpayment!

    And appreciating property prices create a vicious cycle. Many people are taking equity loans against their appreciated properties, and using them to buy more properties! Even though this is not allowed in law, but the money will somehow end up back in the market chasing prices higher and higher.

    Funny thing is, properties are like Veblen goods now. The more the price goes up, and the more difficult it is to buy one (via CMs), then the more people are willing to pay higher prices to own one. Nobody wants to miss the bandwagon this time.

    For prices to come down, the following conditions must be satisfied

    1. Singapore's PAP lose election (<10% probability)
    2. Population regresses to 4 million (0% probability with PAP, <10% without)
    3. HDB BTO prices drop drastically (0% probability, with or without PAP)
    4. Casino licenses are withdrawn (0%)
    5. We lose F1 hosting rights (20%)
    6. Interest rate go above 5% (<30% in next 3 years)

    So there you have it. Not only will prices rise, they will continue unabated until 2016 at least.

    But as always, it's your money so you do your own homework
    Thanks for the info.

  20. #20
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    Never time the market for own stay. The loss in time cannot be replaced by any amount of money. There are also simply too many waiting at the sideline for crash and once some correction comes, they will snap up... unless you really snap the unit before its even listed/launched.

    Those that buy now are financially stronger. The CMs are aimed at restricting speculative investors and not aimed at lowering the price.

    But do your sums and must have the ability to hold even when it corrects. It's your own zua li (money).

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by PropertyNewbie
    Supply vs demand.

    Yes a lot of supply is coming on stream, but the demand is so freaking huge it's not funny. EVERYBODY I know who is >20 years old to even 50 years old is thinking of buying and investing in property. This type of groupthink is unheard of 10 years ago.

    There are many many cash rich folks out there. Even those who lack cash, I have personally witnessed some super garang types who will go to 5 or 6 different banks, borrow unsecured loans at 8-12% INTEREST, just to pay for that downpayment!

    And appreciating property prices create a vicious cycle. Many people are taking equity loans against their appreciated properties, and using them to buy more properties! Even though this is not allowed in law, but the money will somehow end up back in the market chasing prices higher and higher.

    Funny thing is, properties are like Veblen goods now. The more the price goes up, and the more difficult it is to buy one (via CMs), then the more people are willing to pay higher prices to own one. Nobody wants to miss the bandwagon this time.

    For prices to come down, the following conditions must be satisfied

    1. Singapore's PAP lose election (<10% probability)
    2. Population regresses to 4 million (0% probability with PAP, <10% without)
    3. HDB BTO prices drop drastically (0% probability, with or without PAP)
    4. Casino licenses are withdrawn (0%)
    5. We lose F1 hosting rights (20%)
    6. Interest rate go above 5% (<30% in next 3 years)

    So there you have it. Not only will prices rise, they will continue unabated until 2016 at least.

    But as always, it's your money so you do your own homework
    Wah ! You nick property newbie ... but but can gave such grandiose advices

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by alamak
    Wah ! You nick property newbie ... but but can gave such grandiose advices
    he has been reading and learning before he joined the forum..

  23. #23
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    Hear all these stories from u sound so scary.... All these risky doings make the bubble bigger and burst ultimately..... Though I do not like CM, but as time goes it make more sense to have these CMs around to stablise the mkt n diminish the bubble then to have the big bubble burst dramatically and hurt lot of people, especially this time round.


    Quote Originally Posted by PropertyNewbie
    Supply vs demand.

    Yes a lot of supply is coming on stream, but the demand is so freaking huge it's not funny. EVERYBODY I know who is >20 years old to even 50 years old is thinking of buying and investing in property. This type of groupthink is unheard of 10 years ago.

    There are many many cash rich folks out there. Even those who lack cash, I have personally witnessed some super garang types who will go to 5 or 6 different banks, borrow unsecured loans at 8-12% INTEREST, just to pay for that downpayment!

    And appreciating property prices create a vicious cycle. Many people are taking equity loans against their appreciated properties, and using them to buy more properties! Even though this is not allowed in law, but the money will somehow end up back in the market chasing prices higher and higher.

    Funny thing is, properties are like Veblen goods now. The more the price goes up, and the more difficult it is to buy one (via CMs), then the more people are willing to pay higher prices to own one. Nobody wants to miss the bandwagon this time.

    For prices to come down, the following conditions must be satisfied

    1. Singapore's PAP lose election (<10% probability)
    2. Population regresses to 4 million (0% probability with PAP, <10% without)
    3. HDB BTO prices drop drastically (0% probability, with or without PAP)
    4. Casino licenses are withdrawn (0%)
    5. We lose F1 hosting rights (20%)
    6. Interest rate go above 5% (<30% in next 3 years)

    So there you have it. Not only will prices rise, they will continue unabated until 2016 at least.

    But as always, it's your money so you do your own homework

  24. #24
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    just my 2...a lot of people buying for rental yield but will there be tenants forever....

  25. #25
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    No tenant is same as gold
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  26. #26
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    Prices are still soaring.
    Do u want to wait untill 2016 where land prices continue to soar, and more cooling measures implemented?
    Unless a war breaks out.... Property might dip.. But nonetheless..
    There r still good buys out there. Those which r near up coming mrt stations or malls have good upside potential. At least have some buffer if property crash. There r also good resale units, or u can consider an EC?
    Which projects r u considering?
    Last edited by Yellow Horse; 03-11-12 at 09:49.

  27. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    No tenant is same as gold
    ...catch no ball..

  28. #28
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    I will buy once there is any good offer from Mt Sinai.

  29. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by radha08
    ...catch no ball..
    Gold has no 'dividend'

  30. #30
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    Visiting show house often also gv u the confidence or feeling to buy or not buy. Whether its resale or new launch, u cld see other buyer look look see see can makw u decide if u are gonna miss de boat or boat not arrived yet.

    If u see many indo buyer like i did in 2009 then u cqn safely buy

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